12-29-13

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Sixth Sense

Titans -7
Redskins +3.5
Jags +11.5
Raiders +11
Broncos/Raiders o53.5

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

NFL
CAROLINA
PITTSBURGH
2 Team Teaser 6pts

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NFL weather report Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 41.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7, 43.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-40s with mostly cloudy skies and a 50 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)

Temperatures will be in the low-40s with an 83 percent chance of rain.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5, 46)

Forecasts are calling for a 90 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low-40s.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with a 46 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3, 53)

Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 56 percent chance of snow in the forecast. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 20 mph.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-8, 47)

Forecasts are calling for a 100 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the high-30s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+11, 53.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-10, 44.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny and clear skies.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5, 43)

Temperatures will be in the low-40s with a possibility of foggy conditions.

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Essential betting tidbits for Week 17 of NFL football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games versus divisional opponents, while the Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS against the AFC South.

- Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has completed just 57 percent of his passes with four TDs and three interceptions in three career games against Jacksonville.

- The New York Jets have dominated Miami ATS in recent years, going 12-3 in their last 15 meetings.

- The over is 18-6-2 in New York's previous 26 road games against teams with winning home records. The Dolphins are 4-3 in Miami.

- Detroit has been a final-month bust in recent years, going 1-7 ATS in its last eight December contests.

- Minnesota will likely be without running back Adrian Peterson for the season finale. With Toby Gerhart also on the sidelines, Matt Asiata will get the start. Asiata had 30 carries for 51 yards and three scores in Week 15 against Philadelphia.

- Houston has played to the Under in nine of its last 11 road games versus teams with losing home records. The Titans are 2-5 in Tennessee.

- Running back Chris Johnson is likely playing in his final game in a Titans uniform. Johnson averages 89.9 yards with three total touchdowns in 11 career games against the Texans.

- Cleveland has been one of the lower-scoring teams when it comes to season finales, playing to the Under in eight of its last 11 Week 17 encounters.

- The Under is 13-5 in Pittsburgh's last 18 home games, and 10-4 in the Steelers' previous 14 divisional games.

- Washington has been dreadful when it comes to beating the spread against weaker competition, going 14-30-3 ATS in its last 47 games against teams with losing records.

- Redskins WR Pierre Garcon has racked up 17 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown in his last two games against the Giants.

- The Bengals are one of only three NFL teams to go into the final week with an unbeaten home record - New Orleans and New England are the others - and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.

- Baltimore is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games in Cincinnati.

- The Panthers have traditionally been a solid bet in the closing weeks of the NFL season, going 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 December games.

- The home team is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between Atlanta and Carolina - and so is the favorite.

- Green Bay will have quarterback Aaron Rodgers back from a collarbone injury for Sunday's pivotal Week 17 encounter with Chicago, in which the winner claims the NFC North title. Rodgers has thrown for 2,513 yards with 19 TDs and six interceptions in 11 career games versus the Bears.

- Chicago (-28) is the only current division leader with a negative point differential; the Packers (-16) would need to win by 16 or more points Sunday to avoid a similar fate.

- Buffalo has had trouble stringing together consecutive solid games, going 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games following an ATS win and 7-21-1 ATS in its last 29 outings following a SU victory.

- Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has 53 touchdown passes in 23 career games versus the Bills - easily the highest total against any opponent.

- Tampa Bay has held tough on the road against tough opponents, going 18-6 ATS in its last 24 road games versus teams with winning home marks.

- The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, and 4-0 in the last four encounters at New Orleans.

- The Broncos and Raiders share a strange ATS trend, with the road team going 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.

- The Over is 10-2-1 in Denver's previous 13 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Broncos shelled Houston 37-13 in Week 16.

- Both the 49ers and Cardinals have been strong plays, with San Francisco 6-0 ATS in its last six road games and Arizona going 6-0 ATS in its previous six contests overall.

- Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has fared reasonably well against the 49ers in his career, passing for 550 yards with three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions in two meetings.

- Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games but is expected to play its second and third-stringers for most of its season finale at San Diego. The Chiefs are already locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC.

- The Under is 9-1 in the Chargers' last 10 games versus conference opponents.

- St. Louis won't make things easy in its final game of the season in Seattle, having gone 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games versus teams with winning records.

- The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings - and with both teams boasting impressive defenses, that trend could continue.

- Dallas and Philadelphia, which meet Sunday night for the NFC East title, have been two of the league's top teams when it comes to turnover differential. The Cowboys are tied for third at plus-11 on the season, with the Eagles right behind at plus-10.

- The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Philadelphia enters as a seven-point road fave.

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Sunday's NFL Week 17 betting cheat sheet Late Action

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3, 53)
In addition to the return of franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay could regain the services of Randall Cobb. The wide receiver has been on the shelf since suffering a broken leg against Baltimore in Week 6 but nearly made his return last week. Eddie Lacy's status also is uncertain after the rookie running back, who has scored four touchdowns while averaging 96.7 yards over his last three games, injured his ankle against Pittsburgh.

Jay Cutler has not fared well against the Packers in his career, posting a 1-8 record that includes a loss in the NFC championship game three seasons ago. The quarterback did not play in the first meeting this season due to a groin injury. Chicago must find a way to stop Green Bay's rushing attack, as the Bears rank last in the league with an average of 161.5 yards allowed on the ground.

ODDS: Chicago is a 3-point dog, with the total set at 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s with a 56 percent chance of snow and wind gusting out of the northwest at 20 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+4.0) + Chicago (-1.3) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -8.3

TRENDS:
* Packers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. divisional opponents.
* Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7.5, 47)
Buffalo dominated on the ground with 203 yards in last week’s 19-0 win over Miami and is second in the NFL in rushing offense (142.5) - an area it can exploit against the Patriots, who are 29th against the run (131.7). The Bills can lean on that rushing attack with quarterback EJ Manuel (knee) sitting out the season finale in favor of Thad Lewis. Buffalo’s defense leads the NFL with 56 sacks.

New England is trying to wrap up an undefeated home slate and ensure a game or two in its own building during the playoffs after posting a strong effort on both sides of the ball in last week's 41-7 throttling of Baltimore. The Patriots made several plays in pass coverage against the Ravens and won the turnover battle 4-0. New England has taken four straight and 19 of the past 20 meetings.

ODDS: New England opened at -8.5 but has been bet down one point. The total is holding at 47.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with rain expected throughout the afternoon.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+3.5) - New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -11.5

TRENDS:
* Bills are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU win.
* Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Favorite is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-11, 47.5)
Tampa Bay won three in a row after opening the season with eight consecutive defeats, but the offense has slowed markedly over the past four games, averaging 11 points in the three defeats. Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has struggled to move the offense in the the four-game stretch, throwing for four touchdowns and four interceptions, failing to surpass 180 yards and absorbing 17 sacks.

A typically potent potent offense has hit a few bumps in the road, averaging 12 points in its three defeats in December - all away from home. Drew Brees has thrown two scoring passes and four interceptions in back-to-back losses at St. Louis and Carolina, but he has been spectacular under the dome in New Orleans with 24 touchdowns - including four games with at least four scoring passes - against only three picks.

ODDS: The Saints are 11-point faves, down from an opening line of -13. The total is up a half-point to 47.5.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+4.3) + New Orleans (-4.3) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -11.6

TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Saints are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Week 17 games.
* Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+11, 53.5)
Denver can lose the top seed with a loss and a win by New England so there will be no lack of motivation despite the 37-21 romp against the Raiders in Week 3 - a game in which Peyton Manning threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns. Manning, who guides an offense that averages a league-best 38.1 points, has a ton of weapons at his disposal; the Broncos are the only team in history to have five players score at least 10 touchdowns.

Terrelle Pryor, who lost his job as a result of a knee injury and lack of production, has struggled in the passing game (five TDs, 11 INTs) but is a dangerous threat with his legs, rushing for 527 yards and averaging 7.1 yards a pop. Backup Rashad Jennings has been a capable fill-in for oft-injury Darren McFadden, who is finally healthy, so expect Oakland to try and utilize the ground game to both keep the ball away from Manning.

ODDS: The Raiders are 11-point dogs, down from a +13 opening line. The total is holding at 53.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with sunny skies.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-7.0) + Raiders (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -10.5

TRENDS:
* Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (PICK, 42)
San Francisco is allowing an average of 14.8 points during its five-game winning streak but needed a late defensive touchdown in order to seal a 34-24 victory over Atlanta on Monday because of some holes in pass coverage. NaVorro Bowman’s 98-yard interception return for a TD masked some of those deficiencies and kept the team riding a high after the game.

Arizona has won its last three games and is looking for its first 11-win season since moving from St. Louis in 1988. Arizona could become just the second team (New England, 2008) to miss the playoffs with 11 wins under the current alignment. Carson Palmer needs 133 yards to become the first quarterback in history to reach 4,000 yards with three different teams.

ODDS: The game is a pick 'em after opening at 49ers -1.5. The total is set at 42.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-6.0) + Arizona (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -0.5

TRENDS:
* 49ers are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games on grass.
* Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.
* San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-10, 44.5)
Kansas City hasn't beaten a team that currently has a winning record since knocking off Philadelphia in Week 3 and has lost three of its last five despite running back Jamaal Charles' outstanding play. Charles, who will be limited Sunday, has an AFC-best 1,287 rushing yards and is trying to lead the conference in rushing for the second straight season. He's also one of the Chiefs' top receivers with 70 catches for 693 yards.

San Diego has found balance on offense in recent weeks and had enough success against the Raiders to overcome three turnovers. Running back Ryan Mathews has come on at the end of the season, compiling at least 99 rushing yards and a touchdown in three straight games, but was held out of practice Thursday because of an ankle injury.

ODDS: San Diego is a 10-point fave, up a half-point from the opening line. The total is down a half-point to 44.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-2.3) + San Diego (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -2.2

TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
* Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games in San Diego.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5, 43)
Standout defensive lineman Robert Quinn had three sacks in last Sunday’s victory over Tampa Bay and has a franchise-record 18 on the season, bettering the mark of 17 set by Kevin Carter in 1999. He is slightly ahead of Indianapolis Colts standout Robert Mathis (17.5) in the battle for the NFL’s sack crown and has also forced seven fumbles – one behind Mathis for the league lead.

The play of second-year quarterback Russell Wilson is a prime reason why the offense has sputtered over the past three weeks. Wilson was just 11-of-27 for a career-low 108 yards against the Cardinals and has the same number of interceptions as touchdowns (three each) during a stretch in which Seattle is averaging just 16.7 points. Seattle has won 15 of the last 17 meetings, including a win in St. Louis on Oct. 28.

ODDS: Seattle is installed as a 11.5-point fave, up from an opening of -10. The total is holding at 43.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with overcast skies and fog a possibility.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+1.5) + Seattle (-7.3) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -11.8

TRENDS:
* Rams are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+7, 52.5)
Philadelphia owns the rare distinction of having the NFL's leader in passer rating (Nick Foles, 118.8) and the league's top rusher (LeSean McCoy, 1,476), not to mention electric receiver DeSean Jackson and his career-high 79 catches for 1,304 yards. McCoy needs 37 yards to break the franchise's single-season rushing record, even though he has received more than 20 carries only four times all season.

With Tony Romo on the mend, Kyle Orton takes over under center. Orton has not started a game since the final day of the 2011 season - with Kansas City - and the 31-year-old has thrown only five passes this season and just 15 total passes the last two years. Without Romo (back), the Cowboys' offense will likely rely on running back DeMarco Murray, who has rushed for 439 yards and five touchdowns over his past four games.

ODDS: Dallas opened +1.5 but the line has since been bet down a whopping 5.5 points. The total is down three points to 52.5.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (-3.0) + Dallas (-0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -0.5

TRENDS:
* Eagles are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Cowboys are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 December games.
* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

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WILL COVER

NFL GOY Miami

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Jets at Dolphins: What bettors need to know

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 41.5)

The Miami Dolphins allowed one AFC East team to win the division title by pretty much laying an egg against another last week. On Sunday, the Dolphins look to defeat the other division rival when they host the New York Jets and receive some help in order to clinch the conference's final wild-card berth. Miami needs to win on Sunday and have Baltimore (8-7) lose at Cincinnati or San Diego (8-7) defeat visiting Kansas City in order to find its way into the postseason for the first time since 2008.

The Dolphins put forth a listless performance last week as they accumulated just 103 total yards in a 19-0 setback to Buffalo, allowing New England to win the division title as a result. Ryan Tannehill was sacked seven times and injured his left knee, but is expected to play as Miami seeks to defeat New York for the second time this season. The Jets posted a 24-13 victory over Cleveland last week for their second win in three outings following a 23-3 loss to the Dolphins on Dec. 1.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Miami opened -6.5 but has moved to -5.5. The total is up a half-point to 41.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE JETS (7-8): Much-maligned rookie Geno Smith took his lumps in the first meeting before getting benched at halftime. Running back Chris Ivory can help avoid a repeat performance for Smith by making some hay in the ground game against Miami's 25th-ranked rush defense. Ivory ran for 109 yards last week against Cleveland, but mustered just 61 in the first meeting versus Miami.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (8-7): Tannehill, who sits 291 yards away from 4,000, threw for a season-high 331 yards and two touchdowns earlier this month versus New York. Brian Hartline reeled in nine receptions for a campaign-best 127 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, but dropped three passes last week. Hartline is 22 yards shy of amassing back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Jets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings in Miami.
* Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Dolphins last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Dolphins hold the edge for a postseason berth in an event of a three-way tie due to a better conference record.

2. The Jets have won of the last eight meetings in South Beach, but are just 1-6 on the road this season.

3. Miami has yielded a franchise-record and NFL-high 58 sacks this season.

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Tale of the tape: Eagles at Cowboys
By MONIQUE VÁG

The battle for the NFC East title is on, while the Cowboys and Eagles compete for the division victory and a spot in the playoffs. In this loser goes home scenario, the Eagles attempt to hold on to their one win lead while the Cowboys try to sneak in to the playoffs with a 9-7-0 record.

Offense

Confidence is high behind quarterback Nick Foles who has a remarkable 25 TDs to just two INTs and a 4-1 record over their last five. Foles is completing 63.9 percent of his passes and enters the week with the highest quarterback rating (118.7) of quarterbacks attempting 200 or more passes. The Eagles rank first in the league in rushing yards with 161.9 and second in average total yards with 420.7. The high-scoring Eagles are averaging 27.9 points per game and have two players in the top 10 in their respective offensive categories. Running back LeSean McCoy is first in the league in rushing yards with 1,476 over 287 carries. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson has nine touchdowns on the year and is tied for second overall in receptions of 40 yards or more with eight.

The Cowboys come in to Week 17 averaging the third most points per game at 27.8. The Cowboys have struggled with the running game, but running back DeMarco Murray has been a one man army putting up nine touchdowns and 1,073 yards through 200 attempts. The Cowboys only have three players with over 150 yards rushing and only have three players that have scored a rushing touchdown (Murray, Joseph Randle and Phillip Tanner). With quarterback Tony Romo out for the season nursing a herniated disk, Kyle Orton will take his place attempting to lead the Cowboys to the postseason. Throughout his 9 year career, Orton has 14,661 total yards and 1,296 completed passes over 2,219 attempts for a 58.4 percent completion percentage. He has 81 TDs and 57 INTs in his career, but over the 2013 has only thrown five passes.

Edge: Philadelphia Eagles

Defense

The Eagles defense have allowed an average of 24 points per game (ranked 16th) and allowed 107.5 rushing yards - good for 12th overall. The Eagles defense have allowed 285.2 passing yards (30th) and 392.7 total yards ranking them 30th in the league. Cornerback Brandon Boykin is tied for fourth with five interceptions including one for a TD and an INT return of over 76 yards. Offensive Linebacker Trent Cole has three forced fumbles this year and leads the Eagles with 8.0 sacks. Middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans has a team high 120 tackles and 4.0 sacks. The Eagles defense is tied for eigth in the league in total interceptions with 17.

The Cowboys defense is ranked last in the league in total yards allowed averaging 418.6 a game and second last in passing yards allowed with 290.7. They are allowing an average of 27.2 points per game and 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed, giving up an average of 127.9. Defensive tackle Jason Hatcher has been the shining star of the Cowboys defense acquiring 9.0 sacks, one forced fumble and 37 tackles. The Cowboys only have three players with over 5.0 sacks and rank 31st in the league in total sacks with 29.0. Middle linebacker Sean Lee leads the Cowboys in interceptions with four including one TD and an interception of 74 yards. With Lee ruled out again Sunday with a neck injury, the Cowboys will feel his presence missed against an Eagles team that likes to take shots down field.

Edge: Philadelphia Eagles

Special Teams

Eagles kicker Alex Henery has been average all year completing 22-of-27 field goals (82 percent). He has made 1-of-2 from 50 or more yards but really has struggled in field goals between 40-49 yards going 6-of-9 for 67 percent. Philadelphia has only two punt returns of 20 or more yards with a season long of 32 yards. They have returned 24 kicks of 20 or more yards and only two returns of 40 yards or more.

Placekicker Dan Bailey has made 25-of-27 field goals including a perfect 8-of-8 record from inside 40-49 yards. He is 6-of-7 (86 percent) on field goals of 50 or more yards. The Cowboys are ranked sixth in kick returns, averaging 25.2 yards over 43 returns. They have shown the ability and explosiveness to make huge plays returning five punts of 20 or more yards and two returns of 40 or more. Dallas has 28 kick returns of 20 or more yards and three of 40 or more.

Edge: Dallas Cowboys

Notable Quotable

"The sky's the limit. We're still in the beginning phases of what we want to do. Players getting used to one another. We feel like we can get a lot better." - Eagles offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur

"(Cowboys coach) Jason Garrett can get out there. (Owner) Jerry Jones can get out there. It doesn't matter to me, it doesn't matter to anyone else in this locker room. We're on a mission and they're in our way. Period." - Eagles cornerback Cary Williams.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Notre Dame (-14 1/2) on Saturday and likes the Chargers on Sunday.

The deficit is 1260 sirignanos.

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RICH ALLEN SPORTS BETTING PROFESSOR NFL SUNDAY

Original System TAMPA BAY +13 ( or best line ) C BET

3.0 System Baltimore +7 ( buy 1/2 ) C Bet

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John Ryan

10* 49ers

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Matt Fargo

10* Raiders

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DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #302 Take Atlanta Falcons +6.5 over Carolina Panthers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Falcons showed they still have talent when they nearly beat San Francisco last Monday night in the Bay Area. Now they return home to close out the season against Carolina, a team with a lot riding on this game. The Panthers are not used to being in this position, and thus I expect them to struggle early in this game with all the pressure squarely on them. Teams like Atlanta that have been out of playoff contention for quite some time usually just do not lay down. Carolina will go all out to try and win this game, but I just believe it will be a 60-minute dog fight. Atlanta has covered four of their last five games.

3 Unit Play. #320 Take Minnesota Vikings -3 over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX)

3 Unit Play. #313 Take Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5 over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The game is essentially meaningless for the Colts as they would need a lot of help to move up to the No. 2 seed and receive a first-round bye. Jacksonville has played much better down the stretch than they did earlier this season, and they have lost the top choice in the draft because of it. Their last two losses have come under today's posted number, and expect that to continue as Jacksonville will take this game down to the wire. Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Indianapolis is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Week 17 games.

5 Unit Play. #303 Take Green Bay Packers -2.5 over Chicago Bears (Sunday 4:25 pm Fox) The Bears are just not good enough to beat the Packers twice in one season. Aaron Rodgers is expected to start for the Green and Gold and that gives them a major edge on offense against a terrible Chicago defense. The Bears defense has fallen off the face of the earth this season without Lovie Smith as coach and expect the Packers to put up a ton of points against them. I am still not sold on QB Jay Cutler in big games and really feel that the Bears should be playing the back-up. The Bears have lost 6 of their last 7 games against the Packers with their only victory coming in the last meetings when Rodgers was knocked out early. Green Bay is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC North teams. Chicago is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games against NFC teams.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

3-Unit Play. Take #301 Carolina (-6) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 29)
The Panthers have everything to play for in this one. They want to lock up one of the top seeds in the NFC. And they will take advantage of a chance to knock down their rivals the Falcons. Carolina dominated Atlanta in the first meeting. They will do the same here. Atlanta has a nice home field advantage. But not in this game. The fans won't be out in full force and the Falcons will probably be playing in front of a half-empty dome. Carolina is just too tough. They won a big game over New Orleans last week and that momentum will carry over into this game.

5-Unit Play. Take #306 Tennessee (-7) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 29)
This game is my Game of the Week.
The Texans have given up on the season. They are just waiting for this game to end so they can put this miserable year behind them. The assistant coaches are already looking for other jobs. Wade Phillips has no respect or control of this team. This veteran team had Super Bowl dreams. Now they are the worst team in football. Tennessee will get revenge for an early season loss with a blowout.

4-Unit Play. Take #312 Cincinnati (-6) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 29)
I'm going with the home team here. Cincinnati will look at this as a chance to stop being the little brother in the AFC North. They still have a chance for one of the top seeds in the AFC and will go all out in this game. The Ravens are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 December games and were blown out last week by the Patriots. The Bengals have been great at home this year, earning another big blowout last week over Minnesota. The Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games and they are on a 4-1 ATS run overall. Lay the points. I think the Bengals will earn another big home blowout and improve to 7-2 ATS their last seven at home against the Ravens.

4-Unit Play. Take #319 Detroit (+3) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 29)
I will take the underdog here. This team has taken some tough losses. But they are still a good team in the NFC. Minnesota has been having quarterback issues all season long and they won't be able to outgun Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the rest of the Detroit offense. There won't be much defense played in this one. That will favor the team with the better quarterback and more explosive offense. Take the points with the top team in this one. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

3-Unit Play. Take #309 Washington (+3.5) over New York (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 29)
I think that the Redskins will win this game outright. The Giants have been almost as bad as the Redskins this year. Yet the public is on the Giants with about 80 percent of the betting. Washington has two one-point losses in the last two weeks. They are still playing hard and could be riding a winning streak. I think the Redskins are more motivated for this one than the Giants. This is a winner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointspreadpros

Week 17 TOP Plays
(16-8-1 last 9 weeks, 24-23-1 YTD)

Detroit +3
NY GIANTS -3.5
CINCINNATI -6