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Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 43.5)
The defending Super Bowl champs look to bounce back from a damaging defeat and give themselves a chance to repeat when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. While the Baltimore Ravens can technically lose and still back into the playoffs if several other teams in the hunt also lose, they can make it much easier on themselves with a win coupled with losses or ties by either San Diego or Miami.
In order to deliver the Bengals their first loss at home this season, Baltimore will need to put forth a better effort than the one it submitted in a 41-7 home loss to New England, which forced four Ravens turnovers to drop them out of AFC North contention. Cincinnati, which locked up that division crown while crushing Minnesota, 42-14, still has something to play for, as it can attain a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win and a loss by the Patriots, who are hosting Buffalo. The first matchup between Baltimore and Cincinnati on Nov. 10 saw the Ravens blow a 17-0 lead - including a Hail Mary touchdown pass by the Bengals that forced overtime - before winning 20-17 in the extra session.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: The Bengals opened as 5-point faves and are now -6.5. The total opened at 44.5 and is down to 43.5.
WEATHER: There is a 46 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (8-7): Coach John Harbaugh has made the postseason in each of his first five seasons with Baltimore, turning playoff football into one of the trademarks of the organization. Along the way, another trademark has been the team's ability to bounce back from losses like the one it sustained against New England; the Ravens have won their last nine games following double-digits setbacks. Quarterback Joe Flacco, who has zero touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games, has struggled at Cincinnati, where he has four scores and six picks through the air in his last four full games at Paul Brown Stadium.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-5): The chances of the Patriots falling at home to the Bills may not be very high, but Cincinnati has indicated it will not rest its starters and has every intention of going all in to give itself a chance to move up the playoff ladder. "We're going to do everything we can to win the football game with our guys and go at it that way," coach Marvin Lewis told reporters this week. Some Bengals players have hinted that hurting Baltimore's chances is an extra incentive, especially given the fact that Baltimore has won five of the last six meetings between the division rivals.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in Cincinnati.
* Over is 4-0 in Bengals last four home games.
* Ravens are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Flacco needs 280 passing yards to join Vinny Testaverde as the only quarterbacks in franchise history to reach 4,000 in a season.
2. Bengals QB Andy Dalton (4,015 yards) needs 117 yards to surpass Carson Palmer's franchise mark for a season, set in 2007.
3. Baltimore had three turnovers and totaled 189 yards in the overtime win against Cincinnati earlier this season.
2.2 Units Pick: 76ers/Lakers OVER 215.5 (-110)
4.4 Units Pick: Georgia St. (pk) (-110)
2.4 Units Pick: 6 point NFL TEASER, Steelers -1.5 & Bengals -1/2 (-120)
#307 - NFL - 10 units on Cleveland +7
#313 - NFL - 10 units on Jacksonville +11
#317 - NFL - 10 units on NY Jets +6
#328 - NFL - 20 units on Arizona +1.5
#332 - NFL - 10 units on Seattle -10.5
#332 - NFL - 10 units on St. Louis & Seattle Under 43
“1 UNIT” NFL SYSTEM SIDE (Panthers –6 at Falcons in a 1:00 eastern kickoff): As predicted back on Monday night in what was the final regular season game inside Candlestick Park, the lowly Falcons were competitive enough to cover the spread of a contest they actually led outright in the third quarter. Monday was a “homecoming” for Atlanta defensive coordinator Mike Nolan as both he and is father used to coach for San Francisco. Monday was also a “homecoming” for star tight end Tony Gonzalez who played collegiately in the Bay Area and was making his final National-TV appearance. Gonzalez came back for one more season in an effort to finally make the Super Bowl which Atlanta was literally one-play away from a year ago. Now the Falcons are one-loss away from suffering one of the biggest single-season drop offs in NFL history which is why they check in today as an underdog even though they are 5-0 at HOME versus Carolina since quarterback Matt Ryan entered the league. One of the many problems for the Falcons this season has been on the defensive side of the field where they are allowing the second-most rush yards per game (135.9) in the entire league. That is good news for visiting Carolina who will be without star wide receiver Steve Smith who a week ago suffered a sprained shoulder. The Panthers have come a long way since early in the campaign when they started 1-3 out of the gate and with a victory this afternoon have a shot at a #2 playoff seed in the NFC. Carolina certainly has earned that opportunity especially since they rallied versus New Orleans last Sunday garnering a game-winning touchdown reception with just TWENTY-THREE SECONDS left on the clock. My research indicates that Atlanta is a horrible “4-17” ATS long term when cast as a home underdog of between 3’-and-7 points. On the flipside Carolina has COVERED the spread at a recent 9-2 clip when up against an opponent with a losing overall record. Here is an incredible 83-PERCENT SYSTEM (29-6 past thirty years with a line between 3’-and-10 points and at least eight-games into the campaign) which plays ON road favorites like Carolina with an “average” offense (4.9 to 5.4 average yards per play gained) going up against a terrible defensive opponent who allowed on average at least 5.8 yards per play
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