1-3-14

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NCAA Football Game Picks

FRIDAY, JANUARY 3 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16)

Game 261-262: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 119.981; Missouri 105.881 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 14; 64 Vegas Line: Missouri by 1 1/2; 60 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+1 1/2); Over

Game 263-264: Clemson vs. Ohio State (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 104.834; Ohio State 114.123 Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 9 1/2; 60 Vegas Line: Ohio State by 2 1/2; 68 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-2 1/2); Under

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Fezzik

Over 67 Ohio St Clemson

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Wunderdog Sports Free Play

Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Pick: Oklahoma State PK

The 10-2 Oklahoma State Cowboys meet the 11-2 Missouri Tigers in the Cotton Bowl. Missouri was the surprise of the SEC this season as they opened the season at 7-0. They got some title talk, but they lost a tough one at home in overtime to South Carolina by 3 points. The Gamecocks remained a one loss team until getting drubbed by Auburn 59-42 in the SEC title game. Over the past few seasons, Oklahoma State has garnered a reputation of big offense and no defense, but that has changed this year. The Cowboys can still get up and down the field, but their defense has improved dramatically. Oklahoma State held six teams to 17 points or less on the season, which included Baylor - a team that averaged over 50 points per game. I think that when the dust settles the D will be the deciding factor in this contest. The Tigers' defense was exposed by Auburn who put up 677 yards against them, providing a blueprint. When it comes time to get that one extra stop in a close game, I'm prone to think that Oklahoma State is more capable of getting it. The Cowboys are 38-18 ATS on field turf in their last 56, and have covered six of their last seven coming in. Under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys are 50-22 ATS as a favorite and 24-13 ATS vs. good passing teams like Missouri (teams averaging 250+ passing yards per game). Take Oklahoma State

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NCAAF Bowl Previews
Sportspic

Cotton Bowl

Matchup: Oklahoma State (10-3, 10-3 ATS) vs. Missouri (8-4, 5-7 ATS)
Location: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Opening Line: Missouri -1.5
Current Line: Missouri -1
Percentage of Action: 65% Missouri

Key Betting Trends:
Oklahoma State: 25-13 ATS over the last three seasons
Missouri:

Analysis: Both teams dropped their conference title games, but the Cowboys’ defeat was much more unexpected. Oklahoma State had no trouble in its bowl game last year, winning in a rout as an 18-point favorite. The Tigers competed in college football’s strongest conference, but missed the bowl circuit last year. In 2011, they won big in their bowl as a -4.5 favorite. Early public action is in favor of Missouri, yet the line has dropped a half point, which could mean the dog is the way to go.

Lean: Oklahoma State


Orange Bowl

Matchup: Clemson (10-2, 6-5 ATS) vs. Ohio State (12-1, 6-6 ATS)
Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida

Opening Line: Ohio State -2.5
Current Line: Ohio State -2.5
Percentage of Action: 66% Ohio State

Key Betting Trends:
Clemson: 8-1 ATS after having won three of their last four over past two seasons
Ohio State: 0-4 ATS in last four games

Analysis: The Tigers won outright as a six-point dog in their bowl effort last year, and were 4-1 ATS away from Death Valley this year. The Buckeyes missed going bowling last year due to sanctions in their program, and in their last bowl game, the team failed to cover as a +2.5 dog. Ohio State is getting a good deal of the early money, but once again, a team with national title aspirations must be content to win just another bowl game, which lends itself to the letdown factor.

Lean: Clemson

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Discover Orange Bowl: What bettors need to know

Clemson Tigers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-3, 69.5)

Game will be played at Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Ohio State was 60 minutes from having the opportunity to play Florida State for the national championship, but will have to settle for another ACC opponent when it faces Clemson in the Discover Orange Bowl on Jan. 3 at Miami's Sun Life Stadium. The seventh-ranked Buckeyes saw their BCS title hopes evaporate with a loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship game, but coach Urban Meyer does not view a matchup with the No. 12 Tigers as a consolation prize. “I think the minute the Orange Bowl selected Ohio State, the mood changed real fast in Columbus, Ohio,” Meyer said. "Every team in America wakes up in August and wants to go play in a BCS bowl game. We're one of the few that gets to do that, so we're honored to be here.”

2. Like offense? The scoreboard operator figures to be working overtime as two of the nation's most explosive attacks square off. Both squads average more than 40 points and are led by elite quarterbacks in Ohio State's Braxton Miller and Clemson's Tajh Boyd. Miller is more of a dual threat as evidenced by his 1,033 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing, while Boyd possesses the ability to run but prefers to utilize a vaunted passing game headed by the dynamic Sammy Watkins. Miller is joined in the backfield by Carlos Hyde, giving Ohio State the nation's third-best rushing offense (317.5 yards) to try and counter an aerial assault that is No. 12 nationally with an average of 329.3 yards.

3. Seeing its unbeaten season and national title chances squelched in its last game, there is an obvious potential for a letdown factor for Ohio State. However, the Buckeyes were not permitted to play in a bowl game last season due to NCAA violations and have been mocked for not being championship-worthy because of the perceived weakness of the Big Ten overall. Clemson, which also lost its season finale to intrastate rival South Carolina, will want to erase the memory of its last game on the national stage - when the Tigers were embarrassed at home by Florida State 51-14 in October. "This is an opportunity for us again to measure up against one of the best teams in the country," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Ohio State opened at 3-point faves, moved to -2 then back to -3. The total opened at 67 and has moved up to 69.5.

WEATHER: There is a 14 percent chance of rain with an 18 mph wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT CLEMSON (10-2, 6-6 ATS): Boyd failed to throw a touchdown pass for only the second time this season in the 31-17 loss to South Carolina, but the senior finished with 3,473 yards, 29 scoring passes and a completion percentage of 67.6. Watkins, projected to be the top receiver selected in the 2014 NFL Draft, hauled in 10 TD passes and had seven 100-yard games on the way to his second 1,200-yard season. The duo gets to attack a pass defense that ranked 11th in the Big Ten (259.5 yards) and surrendered over 300 yards to five opponents in a league not known for quarterback play. “Clemson will probably give us the biggest challenge we've had all year," Meyer said. "We've had some struggles on defense.” Clemson's defense ranked 49th nationally against the run (152.6) yards and will be hard-pressed to contain Miller and Hyde.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (12-1, 6-6-1 ATS): Miller had 22 touchdown passes against only five interceptions but a concern for the Buckeyes was a final four-game stretch in which he failed to complete 45 percent of his passes on three occasions, including an 8-for-21 effort for 101 yards against Michigan State. Swinney pointed to only one number when studying Miller. “The biggest thing is he's a winner," Swinney said. "When you can count on one finger how many losses you have, you're pretty good." The 240-pound Hyde sat out the first three games while serving a suspension but still wound up with 1,408 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns while averaging 7.7 yards a pop. Wideouts Philly Brown and Devin Smith are Miller's top targets - each had 655 yards receiving and combined for 18 scoring receptions - while the oft-maligned defense did tie for first nationally with 40 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Clemson is 2-6 ATS in its last eight bowl games.
* Ohio State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Under is 7-2 in Clemson's last nine bowl games.
* Under is 4-0 in Ohio State's last four bowl games.

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AT&T Cotton Bowl: What bettors need to know

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Missouri Tigers (+1.5, 61.5)

Game will be played at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

AT&T COTTON BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Perhaps the best non-BCS matchup of the bowl season comes in the AT&T Cotton Bowl, where former conference rivals No. 13 Oklahoma State and No. 9 Missouri square off Jan. 3 in Arlington, Texas. Both teams were one win away from BCS berths - or in the Tigers' case, perhaps a spot in the national championship game. The Cowboys won the last three meetings when the teams were Big 12 foes after Missouri had won four of the previous five.

2. Expect a shootout from two of the best, most balanced offenses in the nation as Oklahoma State averages 39.8 points and Missouri 39. The Tigers boast a better ground game, but both teams can hurt opponents with the run or the pass.

3. The turnover battle is always critical, but particularly so when each team's success is as reliant on winning it as these two. Oklahoma State has 30 takeaways and is plus-15 in that department, while Missouri has forced 29 turnovers and is plus-16. The Tigers have a streak of 43 consecutive games with at least one takeaway - the longest current streak in the FBS.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: Missouri opened as 1.5-point faves, but a big swing now has them as 1.5-point dogs. The total has gone up slightly from 60.5 to 61.5.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (10-2, 8-4 ATS): The Cowboys rotated quarterbacks early in the season but have settled on senior Clint Chelf as their man, and with good reason. Chelf has passed for 1,792 yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions while adding 321 yards and six TDs on the ground at a clip of 6.1 yards per carry. The Cowboys are tough against the run - tied for 22nd nationally at 132.9 yards allowed per game - and have a lockdown cornerback in All-American Justin Gilbert, who should be able to neutralize one of Missouri's stable of dangerous receivers.

ABOUT MISSOURI (11-2, 10-2-1 ATS): The Tigers were quietly one of the best running teams in the SEC thanks to three running backs who each have more than 500 yards on the ground and quarterback James Franklin (474 yards, four touchdowns). If the Cowboys manage to bottle up Henry Josey (1,074 yards, 13 TDs), Russell Hansbrough (660, four) and Marcus Murphy (571, nine), they'll still have to contend with Franklin and Missouri's bevy of talented - and tall - receivers led by Dorial Green-Beckham (55 catches, 830 yards, 12 TDs) and L'Damian Washington (47, 853, 10). Missouri's defense had a great season with All-America defensive end Michael Sam leading the way, but the Tigers were gashed for 677 total yards - 545 on the ground - in their 59-42 loss to Auburn in the SEC Championship game.

TRENDS:

* Oklahoma State is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings.
* Missouri is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall.

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College basketball's three biggest Under teams

Many college basketball handicappers expected a wave of Overs to hit early into the schedule, with referees clamping down on hand checks and touch fouls. And while the whistles have been plentiful, scores haven’t exactly been soaring over the number.

In fact, heading into Thursday’s slate of games, the Under is hitting in more than 57 percent of college hoops games this season.

Here’s a look at the three biggest Under wonders heading into the 2014 side of the schedule:

UC Irvine Anteaters (6-7 SU, 2-10 O/U)

The Anteaters continue to fall under the total, scoring 76.1 points for and allowing 71.4 points against. UC Irvine just wrapped a stretch of six road games in seven outings, staying below the number in five of those away tilts. It’s home to Morgan State Thursday.

Bradley Braves (5-9 SU, 0-9-1 O/U)

Bradley manages only 64.7 points per game and attempts only 54.6 field goals a night. The Braves have stayed below 60 points in each of their last four outings, paying out for the Under in all four games. Bradley’s defense has slipped a bit in that span, giving up an average of 71.5 points – a jump from its season average of 68.5 points against per game.

Kansas State Wildcats (10-3 SU, 1-9-1 O/U)

The Wildcats rank ninth nationally in defense, giving up only 57.8 points per game. However, outside of non-conference matchups with Gonzaga and Ole Miss, KSU really hasn’t been tested much on that end of the floor. Kansas State is shooting only 56.3 field goals an outing for 67.4 points per game. With conference play kicking off in the Big 12 this weekend, KSU’s defense could be exposed and those Under winners could disappear.

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NBA action report: Literally all the money on the Spurs

The defending champs hit the court for the first time in 2014 when the Miami Heat host the Golden State Warriors. Meanwhile the New York Knicks travel to San Antonio to face the Spurs.

We talk to Brad Kennedy of topbet.eu, about the betting action and where the odds could end up before tipoff.

Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat - Open: -4, Move: -4.5

The Warriors may be the NBA's hottest team having won six games in a row heading into South Beach to face the Heat, but the money has heavily sided with Miami, who have put up a not too shabby 8-2 record in their last 10 games. Miami will also likely be without Dwayne Wade for the game and bettors don't seem to mind that either.

"Eighty-three percent of the public money is on the Heat ATS. Miami opened as four-point faves, and that has since changed to -4.5," Kennedy told Covers. "Expect to see the spread continue to move in the same direction as the start of the game draws nearer."

The money on the total for this game is close to an even split, with the Under seeing slightly more action at 51 percent.

New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs - Open: -11, Move: -11.5

Things don't get any easier for a Knicks team that has lost its last three games as they open a three game all-Texas road trip tonight in San Antonio, before heading to Houston and Dallas. And just as New York fans are starting to loss all faith in the Knicks season, so are bettors.

"As of writing this, there are still seven hours to go before the game, but at this point, not one bettor has taken the Knicks against the spread," Kennedy said.

Kennedy also expects this spread to move more in favor of the Spurs as gametime inches closer.

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Stephen Nover | CFB Side - Friday, Jan 3 2014 8:00PM
261 Oklahoma St. -1.0(-115) triple-dime bet

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Frank Patron Date: 1/2/2014 12:00:00 AM
Sport: College Football Pick: Over 61 Points OK ST / Missouri Units: 100,000 Units

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

ALL Free Plays are 1148-879 (57%) over the last 5 1/2 years

Free winner FRI Clemson + 3

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Friday

Oklahoma State -1.5

Tampa Bay Lightnng -120

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Drexel at Southern Mississippi

The Dragons come in with a 3-2 road record to face a Southern Miss team that is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Golden Eagles are the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has Southern Miss favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-7). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 3 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 815-816: Georgia at George Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 58.552; George Washington 69.637 Dunkel Line: George Washington by 11 Vegas Line: George Washington by 9 Dunkel Pick: George Washington (-9)

Game 817-818: Drexel at Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 54.815; Southern Mississippi 64.011 Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 9 Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 7 Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-7)

Game 821-822: NE-Omaha at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 51.718; Hawaii 63.970 Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 12 1/2 Vegas Line: Hawaii by 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-8 1/2)

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Intpicks

2* Oklahoma St/Missouri Over 61

2* Ohio St -3

1* Houston -11

1* Georgia +9.5