1-3-14

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From The Bowl Guide
STATFOX FORECASTER

COTTON BOWL:
OKLAHOMA ST. (261) AT MISSOURI (262)
Latest Line: Missouri +1.5; Total: 61.0

There should be plenty of scoring in this one, as both teams ranked among the nation's top 15 in scoring. Oklahoma State went 5-1 SU and ATS after turning the offense over to QB Clint Chelf, averaging 43.8 PPG during that six-game stretch. However, they did turn it over 14 times during that stretch. The SEC championship marked the only time this season that Missouri lost, SU or ATS, away from home. They allowed a whopping 545 rushing yards in that loss, but run defense hasn't been a particular problem all season. It was the first time they had allowed more than 200 all year.
FORECASTER: Oklahoma St. 31, Missouri 29

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NCAAF

Bowl Season

Cotton Bowl Arlington Tx 1/3
Missouri-Oklahoma State used to be Big 12 rivals before Tigers jumped to SEC; Cowboys won/covered last three meetings, last of which was 45-24 two years ago. SEC teams are 9-1 vs Big X in last ten Cotton Bowls; oddly, only Big X win during that time was Missouri’s 38-7 (-3) win over Arkansas six years ago, but now Mizzou is an SEC team- they missed out on bowls LY after going 5-7 in first SEC season, but are 3-2 in last five bowls (favored in all five)- they’re 4-4 in bowls under Pinkel. OSU won last three bowls while scoring 36-41-58 points; they crushed Purdue in Heart of Dallas Bowl LY, same area as this game, but playing BCS bowl in JerryWorld should be exciting for team that recruits mainly in Texas. Oklahoma State is 5-4 as a favorite, 4-0 vs spread in games with single digit pointspread; Mizzou is 2-0 as a dog, winning both SU, 6-2 in games with single digit spread. Favorites won/covered last four Cotton Bowls, all of which were decided by 14+ points.

Orange Bowl Miami 1/3
Ohio State gave up 34+ points in three of last four games (0-4 ATS), losing shot at national championship game with 34-24 loss to Michigan State in Big Dozen title game. Buckeyes are 6-6 vs spread as favorites, 2-1 if spread was single digits. Meyer is 7-1 SU/ATS in bowl games; this is his first for OSU, which wasn’t allowed to play in bowl LY- they’ve been underdog in four of last five bowls, going 2-3. Swinney is 2-3 as bowl coach, with dogs covering four of the five games; Tigers upset LSU as 6-point dog in Atlanta LY. Tigers are 1-2 as underdogs this year, beating Georgia, losing to Florida State/South Carolina; those were also only three games they played this year with single digit spread. Clemson scored 38+ points in eight of ten wins. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight Orange Bowls, 4-2 SU in last six, with last five all decided by 10+ points; Clemson (-3) lost 70-33 to West Virginia here two years ago. Am wary of disappointed Buckeye squad that had eyes on national title game but gave up 603 TY to Michigan in game before losing conference title game.

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NCAAB

Friday, January 3

South Dakota State-Buffalo game is ppd because the weather sucks.

Georgia is 6-5 but none of its six wins have been against top 200 teams; they're 0-4 vs teams in top 200- their best win is #208 Wofford. Dawgs lost by 14 at Colorado in its only true road game. George Washington is 11-2 after losing by 17 at Kansas State Tuesday; they force turnovers 21.1% of time. Colonials are making 39.9% of time- they're 5-2 against teams in top 150.

Drexel lost two of last three games, losing last game at home to Buffalo; their depth has been stripped by injury (#340 in bench minutes); they're making only 27.3% from arc. 12-2 Southern Miss won its last three in a row, winning last game by 13 at Rhode Island; Eagles turn ball over 21% of time despite playing #316 tempo- they're 1-1 vs top 100 teams, with a 70-69 win at North Dakota State, 69-38 loss at Louisville. .

Weather doesn't suck in Hawai'i; Warriors won six of last seven games vs D-I teams, beating St Mary's/Oregon State; all three Hawai'i losses came to teams in top 60. #128 Omaha won five of last six D-I games, forcing turnovers 20.8% of time; all four of their losses came to teams ranked in top 62- their best win was by hoop at #178 Nevada. Mavericks won three of last four road games, after losing three of first four.

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Clippers at Mavericks: What bettors need to know

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (+1.5, 203)

After shaking off a run of three losses in four games with a thrashing over Charlotte on Wednesday, the Los Angeles Clippers travel to Dallas on Friday for a tilt with the Mavericks. Los Angeles snuck in a win over lowly Utah on Saturday but hadn't been clicking in nearly two weeks before dominating the Bobcats. Coach Doc Rivers told reporters it was refreshing to see the Clippers returning to form, saying, "The ball was flying around the floor (against Charlotte) and that makes us really good."

Dallas is enjoying a three-game winning streak, but Wednesday's victory at Washington left the Mavericks less than satisfied. "We set the NBA back a couple years," forward Dirk Nowitzki told the Dallas Morning News of the 87-78 win, in which Dallas equaled its season low in points. Monta Ellis led the Mavericks with 23 points against the Wizards in what coach Rick Carlisle called the guard's best game since coming to Dallas as a free agent last summer.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, Prime Ticket (Los Angeles), FSN Southwest (Dallas)

LINE: The Mavericks opened as 1.5-point home dogs. The total opened at 204.5 and has moved down to 203.

POWER RANKINGS: Los Angeles (-12.5) - Dallas (-8.2) + home court (-3) = Dallas -1.3

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (22-12, 20-14 ATS): Forward Jared Dudley, who had been shooting at less than 39 percent from the field in a six-game stretch prior to Wednesday's win, knocked down 7-of-10, including 6-of-9 3-pointers, for 20 points against Charlotte. The jolt in production should provide a major lift in morale for the seventh-year pro, who told reporters after the game, "For me, to see the ball go in once or twice breeds confidence." Los Angeles dished out a season-high 36 assists against the Bobcats, led by 14 from Chris Paul, whose 11.3 assists per game leads the NBA.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (19-13, 18-14 ATS): Dallas overcame an eight-point third quarter deficit against Washington, limiting the Wizards to 17 points in the fourth quarter to win an ugly one. "It ain't always going to be perfect," forward Shawn Marion said, "but a win is a win." Ellis knocked down six free throws in the waning seconds Wednesday, prompting Carlisle to sing his praises for a well-rounded effort, saying, "He had such great command of the game. He made big plays and his string of free throws at the end of the game was the decisive factor."

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Clippers are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Clippers are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Dallas.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Los Angeles (104.7 points per game) and Dallas (103.3) each rank among the NBA's top 10 in scoring.

2. Nowitzki and PG Jose Calderon combined to shoot 6-of-28 from the field Wednesday and Calderon is shooting less than 35 percent in his last four games.

3. Clippers SG J.J. Redick had a cast removed from his right hand but is still at least three weeks away from returning to the lineup, recovering from a broken wrist.

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Tommy Gunn

*Can't miss parlay*
Clemson +3
Ok State/mizz over

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Vegas Sports Informer

NBA BASKETBALL PLAY

3 Unit Play. Take #809 LA Clippers -1 ½ over Dallas (8:35 p.m., Friday, January 3)
The Mavericks could be short-handed tonight with 'Dirk' nursing an ankle injury and if he doesn't play that will be great for us. If he does play he will not be 100% but either way I see the Clippers winning this game. The Mavericks last home game they lost to the Spurs so beating Dallas at home is possible and again with Nowitzki having a bad wheel we like Lob City tonight on the road. Dallas is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

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Jason Sharpe

5 Unit Play Take #803 New Orleans -3 over Boston (7:35pm est):
I think we should see a focused effort here from New Orleans after coming off an ugly blowout loss in their last game. That was a tough spot as they faced a Minnesota squad coming into that game off of a tough loss. New Orleans is 27-8-1 ATS following games they lost straight up by more than ten points. The Pelicans have been very strong this season against bad teams like Boston. By my count they are 10-2 this year against lower level teams straight up. They have covered six straight versus teams with a losing record and four in a row against the Eastern Conference.

Boston comes in having failed to cover any of their last four home games and it's been six straight games overall without a point spread cover as well. They are also just 1-6 versus New Orleans ATS the last seven times these two teams have met.

Take New Orleans minus the points here.

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DOC SPORTS

3-Unit Play #801 Take Toronto/Washington UNDER 193.5 (7 p.m. EST, Friday)
Just think that this total is about four points too high. Both teams have been playing some really good defense lately. The Raptors have held three of their last four opponents to 83 or less points, including last time out when they held the Pacers to just 82 points and 43 percent shooting from the field. Four of their last six games have gone under the posted total. The Wizards have held two of their last three opponents in the 80s as well, and one of those teams was a pretty good Dallas offense that is much more potent than what this Toronto team will bring to the court tonight. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these clubs, including one meeting this season where the total reached only 184. We see this one finishing in the high-180s.

2-Unit Play #813 Take Utah +3.5 over LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST, Friday)
This Utah team is playing some good basketball lately, and they are playing their best basketball of the season for sure. They have won four of their last six games, including a two-point win at home against these Lakers. LA is fielding its worst team right now in years, and they have lost six straight. This team just seems hopeless right now, and the injuries are piling up while the attitudes of the players are at an all-time low. The Lakers have been kicking everyone's butts in the west for years, and a team like Utah will relish a chance to beat them on the road and keep their losing streak going. Whatever happens, the Jazz are playing with a lot of confidence right now, and we think they keep this game real close with a chance for the straight up win.

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ALLEN EASTMAN

4-Unit Play. Take #801 Toronto (+3) over Washington (7 p.m., Friday, Jan. 3)
This Toronto team is hot. They have won four straight games and they have won eight of the last 10. They are playing great. This team is on a 8-2 ATS run and they have won most of those games on the road just like this. Washington just lost to Dallas at home as a favorite. That was my 5-Unit Game of the Week and the Mavericks won for me. It was a blowout with Dallas winning 87-78 and that was an easy call. I think the same thing is going to happen here with the Raptors winning this game again. The Raptors have done really well in this series and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Wizards. They will take care of the job tonight.

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Freddy Wills

Orange Bowl

Ohio State -2.5

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Chris Jordan:

600 OK State

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Betting line moves
Neb-omaha +9

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mysystempicks

Clemson +2.5 (C)
Oklahoma State -2.5 (A)

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H&H Sports

CFB Triple Dime Oklahoma State

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LA Syndicate

CFB
Over Clemson

NBA
Clippers