If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
5-Star New Orleans +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA - The Eagles have been terrible when hosting a team that does not run the ball much. Philadelphia is 0-12 ATS at home vs a team that has averaged 25 or fewer rushes per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Eagles and H and oA(rushes)<=25 and date>=20101003
Note that they were 0-4 ATS in this spot THIS season.
Also, the Eagles are 0-14 ATS at home the week after a game in which they passed for fewer than 350 yards and Riley Cooper did not have a 24-plus yard reception. The SDQL text here is:
H and Eagles:Riley Cooper:longest reception<24 and p:PY<350 and NB and date>=20110101
Note that they have lost each of their last six straight up in this spot.
The Saints' offense is ranked fourth in the league for fewest turnovers this season. This is another poor spot for Philadelphia, as they are 0-10 ATS since the start of the 2011 season when hosting a team that has averaged fewer than 1.35 turnovers per game season-to-date. Check it out using this SDQL text:
team=Eagles and H and oA(TO)<1.35 and season>=2011
They were in just this spot three times this season and they lost all three as a favorite.
We had the Eagles over 7.5 wins for the season and we had LeSean McCoy to win the rushing title at +1800. However, the reason was their weak schedule, not because they were a great team. The Saints outplayed the Patriots in New England and the Panthers in Carolina, but lost both games. Philadelphia played four playoff teams this season - they lost as a home favorite to the Chargers, lost as a home favorite to the Chiefs and were hammered 52-20 by the Broncos. The did beat the Packers, but Green Bay was without Aaron Rogers.
The NFC East was a very weak division - especially on defense. The Redskins were ranked #32 of 32 teams in yards allowed per opponent's pass attempt in 2013. The Cowboys were ranked #32 of 32 teams in total yards allowed this season. It's no wonder that the Eagles' offensive numbers look good as they got each of these teams twice during the regular season. The Eagles also faced the Bears (#30 in total yards allowed) and the Vikings (#31 in total yards allowed). So, the Eagles got to face the three worst defenses in the league and they got the Cowboys twice.
Did the Eagles get to face the team ranked #29 of 32 teams in total yards allowed in 2013? No, because THEY are ranked #29.
Philadelphia started the season 2-5 and needed a huge run to get to the playoffs, including an emotional 24-22 win over the Cowboys in Dallas in the season finale. The Saints started 5-0 and ended the season with a romp over the Bucs. The Saints belong in the playoffs and the Eagles know they were fortunate to get there.
The Saints have so many offensive weapons. They have a raft of excellent receivers and they have running backs that can catch the ball, although Pierre Thomas only had one reception for three yards in their win over the Bucs. This is actually a positive indicator, as the Saints are 8-0 ATS after a home win in which Pierre Thomas had fewer than three receptions. Check it out with this SDQL text:
Saints:Pierre Thomas:receptions<3 and p:HW and date>=20110925
I'll take Sean Payton over Chip Kelly and I'll take Drew Brees over Nick Foles. The Saints should be able to expose the Eagles as a team that is not a real contender. Grab the 2.5 points.
Comment