1-5-14

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NFL Wild Card betting preview Hot bets and moving odds

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews this weekend’s NFL playoff action.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Home-field advantage looks to be huge in this matchup. The Bengals haven’t lost at Paul Brown Stadium this year and average 42 points in their last five home games. They also finished the season by covering four of their last five pointspreads and are riding a 4-0 streak against the number in their last for meetings with San Diego. The Chargers have shifted to more of a run-heavy attack behind Ryan Mathews, which should help if Mother Nature comes into play.

Where the action is: The current total of 47 is up a half point from the open, but the pointspread is holding firm at -7. About 53 percent of our bettors are currently backing the Bengals at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+3, 47)

The Packers squeaked by the Bears to earn a playoff berth last week, but that didn’t impress many. Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point underdog at home but is already up to +3. The total has dropped two full points since debuting at 49 and weather could be a factor in this matchup as well. The 49ers have won and covered in each of their last four meetings with Green Bay.

Where the action is: The 49ers are this week’s most popular bet with about 71 percent of our action coming in on San Francisco. current as of noon ET, Jan. 2

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Betting NFL dogs? Amazing trend will have you thinking moneylines

If you’re thinking about taking the points this NFL Wild Card Weekend, you may want to forget the pointspread all together and go all in on the NFL underdog moneylines.

According to Marc Lawrence, the outright winner in NFL opening-round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980 – an astonishing 89 percent cover rate. Simply put: Whoever wins, covers the spread in the opening round of the NFL postseason.

Last season, the Houston Texas won and covered versus the Cincinnati Bengals, the Green Bay Packers won and covered against the Minnesota Vikings, the Baltimore Ravens won and covered over the Indianapolis Colts, and the Seattle Seahawks won and cover against the Washington Redskins.

In 2011-12, the Texans, Saints, Giants, and Broncos all came away with the SU and ATS victory. In 2010-11, the Seahawks, Jets, Ravens, and Packers were big for fans and bettors during the Wild Card Weekend. In 2009-10, the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Cardinals were good enough for the win and cover. And in 2008-09, the Cardinals, Chargers, Ravens, and Eagles all won SU and ATS.

In fact, the last Wild Card winners to fall short of the spread were the Jacksonville Jaguars, who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-29 but couldn’t cover as 2.5-point road favorites in the 2007-08 NFL Wild Card Weekend. The three other Wild Card winners that year – Seahawks, Giants, and Chargers – all managed to exceed the oddsmakers’ expectations.

This weekend, oddsmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) priced at +115 to win SU versus the Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at +130 moneyline underdogs at Philadelphia, the San Diego Chargers (+7) listed at +250 pups in Cincinnati, and the Green Bay Packers (+2.5) are +130 moneyline underdogs at home to San Francisco.

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NFL Prop Shop Wild Card Weekend

It's playoff time in the NFL with Wild Card Weekend getting underway Saturday. Why not spice things up with some player prop bets? Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this weekend's action:

Most passing yards

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) vs. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)

This play sets up similarly to our play on Alex Smith. There's a good chance the Chargers will be playing from behind for much of Sunday's game in Cincinnati, but that won't phase Philip Rivers, who brings a 'gunslinger' mentality to the table.

The Bengals defense has been terrific against the pass this season, but that's largely due to the fact that most teams have elected to run on them instead. San Diego didn't show much caution in its previous matchup with Cincinnati, airing it out 37 times in a 17-10 loss. Rivers threw for 252 yards compared to Andy Dalton's 190 on that day, and I'm expecting a similar ledger at the end of this rematch.

Take: Rivers

Most rushing yards

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers)

As much as the Packers would like to lean heavily on their rookie running back, with Aaron Rodgers back under center, they'll undoubtedly fall in love with the passing game once again this week.

Lacy did run the ball 21 times last Sunday in Chicago, but only had moderate success, gaining just 66 yards. Veteran James Starks was actually the more explosive back on that day.

Frank Gore was a non-factor for the 49ers in last week's win over the Cardinals, but he was a workhorse in the previous two weeks, and I expect to see him resume that role against the Packers. Last week's poor performance doesn't take away from the fact that Gore has been running well, gaining at least 86 yards in three of his last four games. He'll find room to run against an up-and-down Packers defense on Sunday.

Take: Gore

Most pass receptions

Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers) vs. A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)

Since Week 4, Keenan Allen has emerged as Philip Rivers' favorite target, and even though he's a rookie, I expect him to be counted upon heavily in Sunday's showdown with the Bengals.

Note that Allen was a force against Cincinnati back in Week 13, hauling in eight catches for 106 yards.

A.J. Green has quietly emerged into a superstar, but that leaves hiim overvalued in terms of prop matchups more often than not. This is such a case as we're getting a healthy underdog return with Allen in what I feel is nothing more than a toss-up. In terms of yardage Green may win the battle, but as far as receptions go, I'll take my chances with Allen.

Take: Allen

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Chicago Syndicate

NFL
Bengals & Over

CBB
Wichita St
Wisconsin

NBA
Grizzlies
Over Thunder

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LA Syndicate

NFL
Over Chargers
49ers

NBA
Over Lakers
Warriors

CBB
UCLA
Arizona State

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Sports Nostradamus

NFL
49ers (ML)

CBB
Minnesota
Kansas

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H&H Sports

NFL
Triple Dime Packers
Double Dime Chargers

CFB
Double Dime Ball State

NBA
Double Dime Over Knicks

CBB
Dime Kansas

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Cappers Access

Chargers +7
49ers -2.5

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Penguins won 15 of their last 18 games.
-- Carolina won its last three games, all by one goal.
-- Sharks won five of their last seven games. Chicago won six of its last nine.
-- Lightning won seven of their last nine games.
-- Ducks won 12 of their last 13 games.

Cold teams
-- Winnipeg lost five of its last six road games.
-- Predators lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Edmonton lost four in row, eight of its last ten games.
-- Canucks lost last three games, scoring six goals.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-2 in last eight Nashville games.
-- Five of last six San Jose games went over total.
-- Seven of last eight Edmonton games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Vancouver games stayed under total.

Series records
-- Penguins won nine of last eleven games with Winnipeg.
-- Carolina won its last two games with Nashville, 4-3/5-2.
-- Blackhawks won six of last seven games with San Jose.
-- Home side won five of last six Tampa Bay-Edmonton games.
-- Ducks won six of last eight games with Vancouver.

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NBA

Hot teams
-- Memphis covered five of its last seven games.
-- Pacers won six of their last seven games (7-2 AF).
-- Raptors won six of their last seven games (6-1 last 7 AU). Miami is 9-2 in its last 11 games (2-6 last eight HF).
-- Warriors won their last eight games (3-6-1 last 10 AF).
-- Mavericks won three of last four games, but lost last three at home (2-5 last seven HF).

Cold Teams
-- Pistons lost five of their last six games.
-- Cavaliers lost seven of their last eight games (7-1 HU).
-- Wizards lost three of last four home games (3-1 HU).
-- Celtics lost six of their last seven games (1-5-1 vs spread). Thunder lost three of last four at home (1-5 last six HF).
-- Knicks lost four of last five games (3-7 last 10 AU, 2-0 last two).
-- Nuggets lost eight of their last nine games (5-4 AU). Lakers lost six of their last seven games (3-3 HF).

Series records
-- Grizzlies won their last seven games with Detroit.
-- Pacers won 13 of their last 14 games with Cleveland.
-- Heat won its last thirteen games with Toronto (6-1 L7 vs spread).
-- Warriors won their last five games with Washington.
-- Thunder won four of its last five games with Boston.
-- Knicks lost last three visits to Dallas by 18-10-3 points.
-- Lakers lost their last four games with Denver.

Totals
-- Last nine Detroit home games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Cleveland home games went over; six of Indiana's last seven games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Toronto road games stayed under; last eight Miami home games went over total.
-- Four of last five Washington home games stayed under.
-- Last five Thunder home games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Dallas home games went over total.
-- Seven of last nine Laker road games stayed under total.

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2Halves2Win Wild Card Sunday Plays:

SUN, 01/05


(GAME: 1*): Chargers +7 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)


(GAME: 1*): 49ers -3 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)


(GAME: 1*): 49ers-Packers o45.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

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Aaron's Analysis

108 GREEN BAY PACKERS plus 3 over San Francisco 49ers



The Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) host the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) on Sunday at Lambeau Field. In the opening week of the season, the Niners came away with a 34-28 victory over the Packers in the Bay Area. Last week Packer QB Aaron Rodgers returned from a broken collarbone injury that sidelined him half of the season, and Green Bay defeated Chicago in dramatic fashion, 33-28. Rodgers connected with another returnee from injury, Randall Cobb (leg), on fourth and 8 for a 48 yard touchdown with 38 seconds remaining. Despite the close score, the Packers managed to outgain the Bears a bit convincingly, 473-345. In winning that game they claimed the NFC North and the fourth seed in the playoffs, allowing them to host at least one playoff game. The team visiting the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field this week is the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners escaped Arizona with a victory last week, defeating the Cardinals 23-20. The Cardinals notched a 482-375 yardage edge in that one, with QB Carson Palmer throwing for 407 yards. The Niners have given up a combined 740 yards versus the pass over the last two games. Coming off of a 25 for 39, 318 yard and 2 TD performance in his return versus the Bears, Rodgers seeks to also put up the yards on the Niner secondary this week. In the early season matchup, Rodgers threw for 333 yards and 3 TDs. Receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb each caught 7 passes and a touchdown in that one, with Nelson compiling 130 yards and Cobb, 108. Last week Cobb caught two passes for 55 yards in his return, both touchdowns. Nelson was an absolute beast, catching 10 passes for 161 yards. It appears to be more than just a coincidence how Nelson’s already great level of play raises even more with Rodgers in the lineup. Out of his five 100+ yard receiving performances this season, four of them was with Rodgers throwing him the rock. In an abbreviated season of just 8+ games, Rodgers has thrown for 2,536 yards with an accurate 66.6% completions and TD to INT ratio of 17 to 6, plus 120 yards rushing. His per game passing average is a staggering 313.6 yards. On the season Nelson has 85 catches for 1,314 yards and 8 TDs, and Cobb, 31 catches for 433 yards and 4 TDs in just six games of action. Completing the talented group of receivers at Rodgers’ disposal are James Jones (59 catches for 817 yards and 3 TDs, Jarrett Boykin (49 catches for 681 yards and 3 TDs) and tight end Andrew Quarless, who has filled in nicely for Jermichael Finley, contributing 32 catches for 312 yards and 2 TDs. Thanks to the efforts of rookie Eddie Lacy, the Packers now pose a viable threat rushing. He has led the Packers to 143.5 yards rushing per game over the last four, 133.5 for the season, ranking them #7 in the league. On the season, Lacy has gained 1,435 yards from scrimmage, along with 11 TDs. He is still a bit hobbled by an ankle injury, but is okay enough to give it a go, as he is listed as probable. Another capable back is James Starks, who has gained 582 yards from scrimmage with 4 TDs, including 11 carries for 88 yards rushing last week. The Niners struggled a bit running the football in the first matchup between these teams, as they were only able to gain 90 yards on the ground. Niner back Frank Gore was held to 44 yards and 2.1 yards per carry, and QB Colin Kaepernick held to just 22 yards. Despite his 1,000 yard rushing season, Gore has struggled a bit, with just three 100+ efforts, including a meager 14 yards versus Arizona last week. The Niners have struggled in the passing department with Kaepernick on the season, as they are ranked #30 in the league with just 186.2 yards per game. Receiver Michael Crabtree has been a disappointment in his return, as he has just 19 receptions over five games, and has only one game with more than 68 receiving yards. The Packers don’t have one of the best defenses out there, and they will be at a deficit without the services of linebacker Clay Matthews. Kaepernick and receiver Anquan Boldin both enjoyed much success versus the Packer defense in the opening week matchup, and they could very well hook up for their share of yards in this one. However, judging by that first matchup, the Packers should be able to hold Gore and the wheels of Kaepernick in check here. With Rodgers, Cobb and Nelson, the relentless Packer passing game should be no match for the Niners, and the Pack should be able to come away with a nice victory here at frigid Lambeau Field.

PACKERS 35-31 (3 Units)

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Joe gavazzi

4* gb +2

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Sports Book Breakers

4-STAR San Diego +7 over CINCINNATI
There is a big reason that this year's Chargers team is a good one to back getting a ton of points - they can control the ball. They are third in the league in first downs, lead the league in third down percentage, and lead the league in time of possession. They have an offense designed to steadily move the chains. This is why they can play with any team and are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games as a dog of more than a point.
Their offense has helped them to compete with teams better than them on the road. The Chargers are 7-0 ATS (11.36 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 on the road versus any team with more wins (team=Chargers and A and wins=20120101).

While they are just 9-7 on the season, playoff teams with these lesser profiles have surprised people in their first games. Teams which won less than 10 games on the season are 15-7 ATS in their first playoff game (wins<=9 and playoffs=1 and playoffs=0).

This also applies to heavy underdogs in the playoffs. Touchdown or greater underdogs are 29-21 ATS in the playoffs (playoffs=1 and line>=7).

While the Chargers are TD-dogs in this game, this season their average line was exactly 0.0. Playoff teams are 49-35-2 ATS when the line in the game is at least 6.8 points higher than their average line this season (playoffs=1 and tA(line)-line<=-6.8).

The reason they are big dogs is that the Bengals are a perfect 8-0 at home this season. Playoff teams playing at home which have not lost at home all season are 9-17 ATS (playoffs=1 and H and Sum(L@team and season and H)=0).

Part of the reason for the Bengals success has been an unsustainable 73.9% success rate in the red zone. Playoff teams which have scored TDs on at least 63.9% of red zone attempts are 11-23 ATS (playoffs=1 and tA(RZM)/tA(RZA)>=.639).

With everything to play for last Sunday, the Chargers struggled mightily, needing to erase a 10-point fourth quarter deficit before winning in overtime, 27-24 over the Chiefs. Teams coming of a win where they trailed by double digits entering the fourth quarter are 90-73-3 ATS (p:W and p:M3<=-10).

Playing mainly backups, the Chiefs avoided the mistakes you'd expect, committing just one penalty for five yards. Teams which benefited from no more than 11 penalty yards last game are 213-169-8 ATS (po:PENY<=11).

San Diego did what they have done in most must win games this season - take to the ground. They rushed for 186 yards. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (12.08 ppg) since Nov 07, 2010 the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing (team=Chargers and p:RY>=150 and NB and date>=20101107).

Cincinnati also likes to run the ball, averaging just over 30 attempts per game. The Chargers are 6-0-1 ATS (12.14 ppg) since Dec 05, 2011 when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30 (team=Chargers and 30=20111205).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CINCINNATI by 1

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Sports Book Breakers

4-STAR San Diego and Cincinnati Over

Cincinnati is quietly the sixth ranked scoring offense in the NFL, but it is at home where they have really shined. They've averaged an incredible 41.6 points in their past five home games including games against some decent defenses. If either team falls behind, they have the fire power to catch up but we see these teams trading scores in this one.
These stayed close and conservative in their week 13 meeting, a 17-10 Cincinnati win less than six weeks ago. Playoff games which are rematches of games played in the past 48 days are 25-10 OU (date-P:date<=48 and playoffs=1 and H).

These teams are number one and two in the league in average time of possession on the season. San Diego leads with 33:35 of possession per game. Playoff teams which have controlled the ball for an average of at least 33:28 per game are 8-1 OU (playoffs=1 and tA(TOP)>=2008).

In the last five games, Cincinnati has averaged 33:52 time of possession, while San Diego 35:35. Playoff teams which have averaged at least 33:28 time of possession over their last five games are 31-12 OU (playoffs=1 and tA(TOP, N=5)>2008). Active on both teams.

While San Diego has had the ball so often this year, they've struggled in the red zone. They've scored TDs on just 50.9% of passes. Playoff teams which have scored TDs on less than 52.5% of red zone attempts are 56-34-1 OU (playoffs=1 and tA(RZM)/tA(RZA)<.525).

Last week, in a must win spot, San Diego took to the ground with 36 carries for 186 yards. The Chargers are 8-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since Jan 11, 2009 on the road after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing (team=Chargers and A and 150<=p:rushing yards and date>=20090111).

The sure handed Antonio Gates had one of the Chargers TDs in that game. The Chargers are 11-0 OU (8.8 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 the week after a win where they were not home dogs, in which Antonio Gates had a least 1 receiving touchdown (0 < Chargers:Antonio Gates:receiving touchdowns and p:W and NB and (p:A or p:F) and date >= 20081228).

Cincinnati rolled over Baltimore in a game played for seeding, winning 34-17. AJ Green caught a long TD pass early before being limited the rest of the day. The Bengals are 6-0 OU (13.50 ppg) since Oct 20, 2013 after a game in which AJ Green had a least 1 receiving touchdown (0=20131020).

Prediction 55 Points