1-19.14

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Steve Fezzik
1* Seattle under 39.5
2* prop. Sea/SF. Under 7.5 -125. 1rst qt.

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Root
Top play. Denver
Medium play. Seattle

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Carlo Campanella
10*Denver

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Freddy Wills
5.5* Patriots +5.5
3.3* SF/Seattle Under 39
1.1* SF +3.5

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Linebeaters
SF +3.5
Denver -5

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Mike O'Connor/ Dr Bobs Site
NFL
Seahawks

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Fat Jack Sports
NFL
49ERS
49ERS/Seahawks Over
Patriots/Broncos Under

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NFL Prop Shop: Championship Sunday

The postseason continues in the NFL with Championship Sunday. Why not spice things up with some player prop bets? Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this weekend's action:

Most passing yards

Tom Brady (New England Patriots) vs. Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos)

I'm going to take the contrarian route - and the value that goes along with it - and support Tom Brady in this matchup of legendary quarterbacks.

The Patriots ran the ball early and often against the Colts last week. That was a wise gameplan considering how worn down the Colts defense was following their shootout win over the Chiefs a week earlier.

I don't expect the Pats to follow a similar path this Sunday, however. In fact, I won't be surprised if it's the Broncos that take a page out of New England's book. That's not to say Peyton Manning won't put up some big numbers, I simply feel the underdog value is too good to pass up with Brady against what I feel is a vulnerable Broncos secondary.

Take: Brady

Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)

While both of these young quarterbacks have taken on the role of game manager at times this season, I believe it's Colin Kaepernick that needs to step up and deliver a stronger performance through the air in order to win this game on Sunday.

You can be sure the Seahawks gameplan will involve feeding the beast at every opportunity. By the beast, I'm of course referring to Marshawn Lynch. If Russell Wilson stars in this game, I expect it to be more as a result of his mobility and decision-making with the football.

The Seahawks secondary is imposing to be sure, but I don't envision the 49ers scaling back their passing offense. They know that's an area they need to improve immensely in order to snap their losing streak in the Pacific Northwest.

Take: Kaepernick

Most rushing yards

Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots) vs. Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)

Everyone knows about the success the Patriots enjoyed on the ground against the Colts last Saturday, but I don't think there's any question, they'll find the going a little tougher in that department this week.

If anyone is going to break through against the Denver run defense, it's likely going to be LaGarrette Blount, not Stevan Ridley. The versatile back hasn't exactly drawn the trust of head coach Bill Bellichick this season.

Knowshon Moreno might not be a huge factor in this game, but as the odds suggest, he should be enough of one to outrush Ridley.

Take: Moreno

Most pass receptions

Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks)

Doug Baldwin made the biggest catch of the game in the Seahawks win over New Orleans last Saturday, but wasn't much of a factor otherwise, hauling in only two catches for 30 yards. Given Seattle's rather thin receiving corps, there's really nowhere for Baldwin to hide against an outstanding 49ers defense.

Michael Crabtree played second fiddle to Anquan Boldin last Sunday in Carolina, catching only three passes. He did have seven pass targets, however, and I expect him to see a similar workload this week - if not heavier. Crabtree has evolved into a big-game receiver, and I believe he's the x-factor for the 49ers this Sunday.

Take: Crabtree

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NFL injury report

Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

The Championship games are set where the winner of each moves on to the Superbowl.

In the AFC Championship game, New England travels to Denver where the Broncos are 5.5-point home favorite with the total at 56.

In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers travel to Seattle where the Seahawks are 3.5-point home favorites with the total at 39.

Here is one injury on each team that may affect the outcome of the game.

Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (Concussion, Questionable)

Harvin missed most of the regular season with a hip injury, but was deemed healthy enough to play in Seattle's divisional playoff win against the Saints. Harvin was injured once again after taking two big hits and is yet to be cleared to practice from concussion. The Seahawks have struggled passing the ball this season and if Harvin isn't cleared to play, the trend will likely continue. Seattle's passing game has been a concern during the postseason with Russell Wilson throwing for only103 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Carlos Rogers, CB, San Francisco 49ers (Hamstring, Questionable)

Cornerback Carlos Rogers has been out since the final game of the regular season. In the regular season, Rogers had 47 tackles and two interceptions. The 49ers travel to Seattle facing a Seahawks team that has had limited success in throwing the ball in the post season but have been dominant rushing the ball. If the 49ers are without Rogers again, the Seahawks passing offense may find the spark they have been missing through the air.

Ryan Allen, New England Patriots (Shoulder, Questionable)

In the regular season, punter Ryan Allen had 76 punts averaging 45.9 yards. He had 29 punts inside the 20 and a long of 65. If Allen is unable to start against the Broncos, the Patriots would be relying on Stephen Gostkowski to handle all of the kicking and punting duties. In a game that is predicted to be high scoring against two offensive heavyweights, field position really may come in to play and the Patriots may fall behind in special teams.

Chris Harris, CB, Denver Broncos (ACL, Out)

In the regular season Harris had 65 tackles and three interceptions, although he has not been statistically great in the postseason, That said, Harris has still been a key player in the Broncos secondary. Without the Broncos cornerback, the Patriots passing offense could take advantage of deep balls and passing plays. Harris has played more defensive snaps than any other Broncos player in the regular season and his versatility will be missed with the ability to play either side, outside or in the slot.

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INSIDER ANGLES

NFL Trends & Angles - Championship Game Round

Well, it was another great week for our NFL Trends & Angles in the Divisional Round of the 2013 NFL Playoffs as we officially went 8-2-4 ATS on a game-by-game basis, and those of you that got better than +8 on the New Orleans Saints went 12-2 ATS! That makes us officially 13-4-4 ATS through the first two rounds of the playoffs (17-4 ATS if you bet Saints late).

Remember that not all of the enormous volume on these NFL Playoff games will come from bettors that have been betting all season, as this is the time of year that brings out many novice bettors, and because of that the betting lines are more likely to change on "square" money at this time simply because of the sheer dollar amounts bet. Thus, as ironic as it sounds, post-season lines are sometimes not as sharp as the regular season.

That often leads to some vulnerable lines for sharper players, and as usual, underdogs are a nice place to start with many of the novice players eager to back the popular favorites. That same logic suggests to look at playing the 'under' first when playing totals, with fans of high scoring games, especially the aforementioned squares, usually over-betting the 'over'.

Note that because there are a grand total of only 11 post-season games every year, it is hard to get as large a sample size as we do during the regular season, when going back to the 2005 season suffices for our NFL Trends & Angles. Thus, our playoff angles have varying lengths basically out of necessity, and even with that, not all of them will have the larger sample sizes you are accustomed to seeing with our regular season trends.

So here are our NFL Trends & Angles for the Championship Game Round of the playoffs, beginning with two angles that we are using for the first time this season and followed by three angles we are bringing back from last week. Also note that these angles are based on closing lines, so for these purposes, the Seahawks lost ATS last week even though they were a 'push' vs. the Saints at the time we published.

We have specified the length of each Trends & Angle.

Play on any road playoff team that won on the road in the previous week
(22-12, 64.7% ATS since 2005):
It is supposed to be hard to win on the road during the playoffs, as road teams are the lower seed after all, but apparently once a team does win on the road it becomes easier to repeat the performance. That could be the reason why so many wild cards have made Super Bowl runs in recent years.
Qualifier: 49ers +3½.

Play the 'over' in any playoff game if a team is coming off of three ATS wins
(61-39. 61.0% since 1990):
Yes the old axiom is "Defense win Championships", but this nice angle that stretches all the way back to 1990 is evidence that teams that are playing well and usually advance in the playoffs are teams that can score points also. That is not to say that defense is not important, but teams have to be able to compliment those defenses with the ability to at least score some points if they want to reach the Super Bowl.
Qualifying 'over': Patriots vs. Broncos.

In playoff rematches of non-divisional regular season meetings, play on the team that lost the regular season meeting straight up
(43-25-1, 63.2% ATS since 2001):
A lot of non-divisional regular season matchups take place once every four years or so, which means that the teams are usually unfamiliar with each other when they take the field. However, if fate allows those teams to meet again in the playoffs, the team that lost now has some actual game tape to dissect and can make adjustments to either get revenge in the playoffs or at least make the game more competitive.
Qualifier: Broncos -5.

Play on any playoff underdog coming off of two straight up wins
(61-40-2, 60.4% ATS since 1999):
Obviously the favorites in the playoffs are usually the better team and the public loves to bet favorites, which becomes even more amplified in the playoffs with so much more novice money involved. That often leads to nice value on underdogs that are playing well while coming in on winning steaks.
Qualifiers: Patriots +5 and 49ers +3½.

Play against any playoff home team that lost its last game against the spread
(31-19, 62.0% ATS since 2002):
Way back in the day before there was internet, there used to be a popular playoff system that said to play on a team that failed to cover its last game, with the theory being that the team would be undervalued following a ATS loss yet was obviously still a good team since these are the playoffs after all. As so oftentimes happens with systems like that though, the public gets wind of it and all of a sudden, the contrarians become the mainstream. Nowadays, if a playoff team loses its last game ATS, it can be taken at face value as a sign that the team may be vulnerable, especially at home where it is usually asked to give more points (or it gets fewer points as an underdog).
Qualifiers: Patriots +5 and 49ers +3½.

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ANDRE GOMES

NFL Conference Round - 303 San Francisco 49ers @ 304 Seattle Seahawks
In normal conditions, I would have a lean in SEA-3.5 playing at home vs. any team in the league as I understand the “12th man advantage” for SEA, and their incredible home record in the last few season’s that includes two complete “beatings” vs. San Francisco in the last 2 h2h’s games at home.

However, this also creates an additional pressure to win for SEA, and this might turn against them especially vs. such experienced and road battled team like SF.

I really don’t trust SEA offense right now… in the last game, they could have put the Saints away already in the first half, but they settled for 3 FG’s in their 4 FH scoring drives. They were #2 in offensive penalties during the regular season – only OAK had more offensive penalties than them, and SEA’s running game isn’t that “strong” – Yes, they ran for 174 yds vs. NO last week but it was vs. the Saints rushing defense….enough said.

SF’s defense has been dramatically improving in the last weeks, especially since Aldon Smith returned to the team. Already in this postseason, SF has faced two great mobile QB’s in A. Rodgers and Cam Newton and they did a terrific job in slowing them down, and I expect them to be decent vs. R. Wilson.

The X factor IMO for this contest is related w/ matchup SF offense vs. SEA defense…

I won’t waste many words talking about SEA’s defense – they are awesome!!!

However, SF’s offense has now more weapons than SEA offense and this will make the difference especially in short/medium range plays. A. Boldin, M. Crabtree & V. Davis will dictate some extra attention from SEA defense and this will open up a bit the field for Gore’s & Kaepernick’s legs in the running game.

SEA’s thrives in creating Turnovers but they will have a hard time in doing that vs. SF that takes care of the ball – one TO in their last 5 games!

I really expect this contest to be a tight battle while the home court advantage won’t be that much a factor IMO for a SF team that already have won @GB in the cold and completely dominated CAR on the road in the last game, therefore, I’m taking SF+3.5 in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 303 San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) @ -110

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DOC SPORTS

5 Unit Play #301 Take New England Patriots +5.5 over Denver Broncos (Sunday 3 pm CBS) NFL Playoff Game of the Year.
New England may be winning with smoke and mirrors, but they are nonetheless getting the job done and I just do not see them getting blown out in this game. In fact New England has not gotten blown out in any of their 4 losses this season (7 points was their biggest defeat). What America believes this game will come down to Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning and it is hard not to side with Brady in this game. Brady has beaten Manning in 2 of their 3 playoff match-ups with the only loss by Brady coming by 4 points in a game New England led for most of the 60 minutes. Denver also lost a key player on defense with Chris Harris placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Denver will have their moments in this game but unlike San Diego last week, New England will not be tentative in their play calling and I fully expect them to put up points in all 4 quarters. Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games. I expect this to be a field goal game and thus we will collect with our ticket with whoever comes out on top and advances to the Super Bowl.

3 Unit Play #303 Take San Francisco 49ers +3.5 over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 6:30 pm FOX)
As a whole, I just believe that San Francisco is the better all-around team. Seattle has a great advantage when playing in the Emerald City. I just do not see Seattle winning this game unless they create turnovers and short fields. Russell Wilson is an outstanding leader but he is not going to beat you with his arm on a consistent basis. San Francisco has already won two road games in the playoffs this year and I just feel that this team is determined to get back to the Super Bowl in order to right a wrong. San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Harbaugh is better than Carroll.

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SPORTS WAGERS NFL

DENVER -5½ -108 over New England

We could easily make a case for either side here, as it’s not difficult to get behind the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Belichick is one of the greatest coaches this league has ever seen with one of the sharpest football minds in history. He is calm, he knows how to plug holes and he knows how to exploit the opposition’s weaknesses. The way in which New England systematically broke down the Colts last week was a sight that is still fresh in the minds of everyone who watched it, especially those that wagered on the Colts and ripped up their tickets. Indy never stood a chance and now this Patriot team is being offered up what seems like far too many points. At least that’s what we’ve been hearing all week…….“Oh man, you can’t give Brady this many points”. “Brady owns Manning”. “New England can win this game without the points”. “100%, you have to take the points”. That’s all we’ve been hearing since the number came out. In fact, this number came out at -7 for a brief few moments on Sunday and one oddsmaker was quoted as saying, “We put out a bad number”. Yeah, ok. Don’t believe that for a hot second. The oddsmakers don’t put out a bad number for a game that is going to be one of the most wagered on events ever. The only thing missing from that quote was the chuckle under his breath.

We’re not going to waste your time and break down the X’s and O’s. You’ve already seen it or heard it broken down enough times to make you puke already and you’ll get more of it on Sunday with Curly, Larry and Moe. If Shannon Sharpe takes the marbles out of his mouth, you may even hear him muffle out an opinion. In any event, there is not a crystal ball in the world that can predict all the intangibles that affect the outcome when two evenly matched teams hook up. That aside, one should never ignore what the line is telling us and when something looks this good (New England plus the points), red flags should go off in your head. Had this game been played before New England defeated Indy and Denver struggled against San Diego, the masses wouldn’t be on the pooch. The public’s over-reaction to last week’s results has us backing the team that the oddsmakers don’t want us on because that’s usually the right side. So, while New England was preparing for the Colts, Peyton Manning has probably spent 16 hours a day for two weeks preparing to face New England’s weak defense. Lay the points.

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ALLEN EASTMAN

NFL Playoffs - Conferences

4* NE +5.5
1* NE - Moneyline (+200)

2* Exact Superbowl matchup: NE & SEA (+300)

5-Unit NFL Game of the Week
SEA -3.5
411 System