1-19.14

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J Clifton

NFL Playoffs
Seattle
Denver
denver/ne - Over

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Prediction Machine

Lock Broncos
Seahawks & Over

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Today's NFL Picks

San Francisco at Seattle

The 49ers head to Seattle for the NFC Championship carrying a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. San Francisco is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 19 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (1/14)

Game 301-302: New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 141.602; Denver 141.678 Dunkel Line: Even; 59 Vegas Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 55 Dunkel Pick: New England (+4 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: San Francisco at Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.597; Seattle 142.834 Dunkel Line: Even; 35 Vegas Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 39 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Under

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NFL Opening Line Report: Championship Game odds
By JASON LOGAN

NFL fans, bettors, sportsbooks, bar owners, television executives, and ole’ Roger Goodell have to be happy with the way the NFL playoffs have trickled down.

In the NFC Championship, the Seahawks and 49ers put on the gloves for Round 3 of their divisional grudge match, with exciting young quarterbacks pacing both sides. And in the AFC title game, we get one more chapter – perhaps the final one - in the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning debate. It’s a perfect Sunday blend of old and new.

We talk to Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, to get the story behind the odds for NFL Championship Sunday and where he expects those lines to move before kickoff:

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-4.5, 54.5)

It didn’t take long for the betting public to voice its opinion on the AFC Championship, cutting the spread as much as 1.5 points. Early action on the Patriots from sharps and the public dropped Denver from its opening perch of -6.

Korner says Denver’s unimpressive showing versus the Chargers in the Divisional Round is driving this movement but admits that he thinks Broncos -6 is the right number and believes the betting market will come back on the home team and return this spread close its opener.

Another factor playing into this movement - one that will be puffed up by the media all week heading into Sunday’s showdown - is the Brady vs. Manning angle and the fact that Brady has gotten the better of his counterpart in recent years, including a come-from-behind win over Denver in Week 12. Brady is 10-4 SU and 7-5-2 ATS in head-to-head matchups with Manning.

“It’s the main underlying current heading into this game,” Korner says of the classic QB rivalry. “'Brady versus Manning' hasn’t been a big success for Manning and I think people see this and it plays into this initial action.”

As for the total for the AFC Championship, Korner’s group of oddsmakers sent out 55 points and most books are dealing something similar, with some markets moving up with action on the Over. The Patriots and Broncos played Over the 54-point total in Week 12.

“We use that (Week 12) game as a guide,” says Korner. “I think the fact that Denver didn’t show much punch Sunday and New England definitely doesn’t have the same offensive punch we’re used to, there could be interest in the Under. But we want to have a high total on this.”

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 39.5)

You’d be hard pressed to find two NFL teams that know each other better than the Niners and Seahawks. These NFC West rivals seemed destined to meet in the conference championship, and Korner and his crew had this spread pegged at Seahawks -3.5 – which is what most books are dealing Monday.

“Seattle is still the team to beat, despite how well San Francisco is playing right now,” says Korner. “San Francisco is gathering steam and will be a big play up north (Northern Nevada, due to close proximity to Bay Area), but Seattle is like the heavyweight champ and until they’re knocked out they won’t be treated differently otherwise. The 49ers can win this one and it won’t surprise me, but I have no problem with this going up Seattle -4. I’d rather be too high on favorites than too low on dogs.”

The Seahawks and 49ers split their two regular season meetings with the home team winning both games. However, Seattle covered as a 2.5-point underdog in San Francisco, losing 19-17 in Week 14 after thumping the 49ers 29-3 as a 3-point home favorite in Week 2.

Both games played Under totals of 43.5 and 41 points, prompting this Sunday’s number to come down from its opening of 40 to 39.5 points. Seattle and San Francisco each stayed Under the total in their Divisional Round matchups this weekend.

“There is a lot of firepower on both of these teams, and I don’t mind seeing money coming in on the Under earlier in the week,” says Korner. “It’s really depends on the weather. If it’s good, (the total will) go up. If it’s bad, it’ll go down. As long as there is an influence on the Under. You don’t want to get stuck with the favorite and the Over in these games.”

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Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady: Who's the better bet?

It's time for the Conference Championships which feature a pair of blockbuster matchups - but one clearly rises above the other as Peyton Manning and his Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots for a showdown in the AFC Championship.

Manning and Brady will face off for the 15th time - and will do so with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line.

Here's a breakdown of the all-time matchup in a special Tale of the Tape:

Straight-up: Brady 10, Manning 4

Brady has dominated the head-to-head record between the future Hall-of-Fame QBs, winning the first six encounters - including the 2003 AFC Championship Game - and going 7-2 at Foxboro Stadium. Manning does have the most significant victory of the series, leading Indianapolis back from an 18-point deficit to prevail 38-34 in the 2006 AFC title game. It's the biggest comeback in conference championship history. Pats kicker Stephen Gostkowski booted a 31-yard field goal in overtime to give the Pats the 34-31 win when the two teams met in Week 12 this season.

ATS: Brady (7-5-2)

This matchup is much closer than the SU history, in part due to a series of closely contested games. Brady kicked off the tete-a-tete with a 5-0-1 ATS record - highlighted by a 44-13 rout of Manning's Indianapolis Colts in Brady's first career start - but Manning covered in each of the next four matchups. The Pats covered as 1-point faves in the Week 12 clash at Foxboro this season.

O/U: 9-5-0

With two of the best quarterbacks of a generation facing off, points are often scored in bunches - and the Brady-Manning encounters are no exception. The first meeting saw 57 points scored, kicking off a trend that saw the teams combine for greater than 50 points in five of the first seven showdowns. The high-water mark of 72 points was set in New England's 38-34 win in Week 13 of the 2003 season and equaled in the Colts' 38-34 win in the 2006 AFC title game. The teams combined for 65 points in Week 12, which finished Over the closing total of 54.

Passing yards: Manning 3,971, Brady, 3,403

Manning has edged out Brady when it comes to passing yardage, averaging a whopping 283.6 yards per game compared to Brady's mark of 243.1. Manning has a number of big yardage games against the Patriots on his career resume, including a 349-yard performance in the 2006 conference championship and a 326-yard effort in a 27-20 triumph over the Patriots earlier that season. Brady was hurt by a 168-yard showing in their first-ever encounter in 2001.

Touchdowns/interceptions: Manning: 29/20; Brady: 26/12

Known more as a gunslinger than his Patriots counterpart, it should surprise no one that Manning has more touchdowns and interceptions in the all-time series. Manning handed Brady his first victory as a starting quarterback, throwing three interceptions - two of which were run back for scores. He also has a place in history as the first quarterback to throw for four touchdowns against the Bill Belichick-led Patriots in 2003 - albeit in defeat.

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NFL betting: AFC title game line moves from -6 to -4.5

The line for the AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos may have opened a little too much in the home side Broncos' favor.

The Broncos opened at -6 at most books following the conclusion of yesterday's Divisional games, but have already been bet to -4.5.

According to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, early sharp money is the engine behind this early move, dropping Denver from -6 to -5 at their sportsbooks. Stewart says it’s been all action on New England, both spread and moneyline, with 82 percent and 88 percent of the action respectively on the road team.

Sharp play, combined with the way the Patriots are playing led to the line move at Sportsbook.ag, said oddsmaker Mike Perry.

"The reason for line move is that both sharp players and a heavy majority of our players were more impressed with what they saw from the Patriots than the Broncos this past week," Perry told Covers. "Both of these betting contingents likes the Pats, so that’s why the line moved as it did."

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Stephen Nover

NFL Side - Sunday, Jan 19 2014 3:00PM

302 DEN -4.5(-110) triple-dime bet

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JEFF CARSON SPORTS

AFC and NFC GOY's(6-1 playoffs)

50*DENVER-4.5
50*SAN FRANCISCO+3.5

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Greg Shaker

3* GOM San Fran -3.5

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Goodfella

3* GOM San Fran -3.5

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Goldsheet:

DENVER 38 - New England 27
San Francisco 20 - SEATTLE 18

PointWise:
Denver 31 - NEW ENGLAND 30
SEATTLE 23 - San Francisco 16

Sports Reporter:
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
NEW ENGLAND over *DENVER by 1

RECOMMENDED
SAN FRANCISCO over *SEATTLE by 6

WinningPoints:
NFL CHAMPIONSHIPS
*Seattle over San Francisco by 8 ( SEATTLE 24-16)

*Denver over New England by 10 ( DENVER 34-24)

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StatFox Forecaster:

Denver 32 NE 26

Seattle 21 SF 17

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Wunderdog Freebie

Game: New England at Denver (Sunday 1/19 3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: New England +6 (-115) at BetOnline

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This game features two future Hall of Fame QBs with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. It's the ninth time in the last thirteen years that at least one of these QBs has played on Championship Sunday. Expectations are high for a great game and I believe we will get one. The Patriots have had an injury-riddled season, losing Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Spikes, Tommy Kelly, Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork among others. That's on top of losing Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker in the offseason. Despite those challenges, the Pats are 13-4 and one win away from another Super Bowl. It's a testament to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Next man up. Thanks to the departures and injuries, New England went through their first eight games with an offense that was a shell of their former selves and they were quite pedestrian, scoring just 22.4 points per game. Contrast that to a loaded Denver offense that started by averaging 42.8 points per game in first half of the season. But Denver's offense has cooled some with a big second-half decline of 11 points per game. While Denver has been going south, New England has been heading up. The Pats finished their last nine games averaging 34.2 points per game, actually besting the Denver second half of the season offense by 2.3 points per game. One can argue, based on the last nine games, the New England offense is playing better coming into this game. Bill Belichick has once again put an unknown player in a role to succeed as he has seemingly done since he first walked the sidelines. LeGarrette Blount most forget, was a 1000 yard rusher for Tampa Bay in 2009-10, generating 5.0 yards per carry. He then all but disappeared as an apparent one-year wonder, until resurrected by Belichick this year. Blount was given a big role vs. Buffalo in the season finale, where he delivered 334 total yards. He was also the difference maker in the playoff game vs. Indianapolis, running wild for 166 yards on 24 carries, and four touchdowns. His two-game combined rushing log reams 48 carries for 355 yards and six TDs. That is 7.4 yards per carry. Will he be the key this weekend? Maybe or maybe not. Heck, Belichick might have Brady throw it 40 times this game. The point is, it's unclear where New England will hit you, making defensive preparation difficult. Peyton manning started the season in invincible fashion. But, the Broncos' offense only topped the 37 point mark (6 points below their first half average) one time. I'm not trying to make the Denver offense sound bad. It set records this season. But, defenses have wised up to some extent and the last nine game average was 31.9 ppg, a full 11 points less. That's very good, but no longer in rarified air. Without the Tennessee game, it dips to under 30 per game over that stretch. Peyton Manning was passing for 8.77 yards per attempt in the first eight games to 7.70 in the last nine - a full yard plus less efficient. The Patriots are 45-26-3 ATS as a dog in their last 74 such games. In the Belichick era, they are 20-8 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points! They are also 29-13 ATS under the Hoody when the total is set in the 50s. Dating back to last season, the Pats are a perfect 6-0 vs. high powered offenses like Denver's (teams that average 375+ yards per game). And, Brady has bested Manning in 10 of 14 meetings. Manning owns a 10-11 mark in the playoffs while Brady is 18-7. Bill Belichick has always found a way to frustrate Manning and take him out of his comfort zone. I believe he will do that again in this game. Peyton Manning vs. Brady & Belichick getting points? Who you gonna trust? I'm taking the Pats.

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Brian Edwards

New England +5
49ers +3.5

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Norm Hitzges

DOUBLE PLAY: San Francisco +3 1/2 Seattle
SINGLE PLAY: Denver -5 1/2 New England