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New England has won and covered the spread in 7 consecutive games vs. AFC West Division Opponents and they have also covered the spread in 24 of the last 32 games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. New England has covered the spread in 42 of the last 65 games when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they are averaging 28 points a game on offense this season.
Play Seattle -3.5 over San Francisco (NFL) 6:00 PM EST
Seattle has covered the spread in 24 of the last 35 games and they have also covered the spread in 18 of the last 25 home games. Seattle has covered the spread in 19 of the last 27 games vs. NFC Conference Opponents and they are only allowing an average of 13 points a game on defense at home this season.
San Francisco vs. Seattle - January 19, 2014 - 6:30 PM
Pick: Your pick will be graded at sportsinteraction @ -3 -120 Seattle
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Jan 19 - 6:30 PM
Reason For Pick:
I’m playing on SEATTLE. These teams have a number of similarities. Both are from the NFC West. Both have dominant defenses. Both teams have an excellent running back. Both offenses are led by a talented and exciting young QB. Both teams are currently playing well.
With all those similarities, many are likely going to be temped to take the points. I believe that the Hawks' home field and scheduling advantage is going to prove significant though.
As you’re likely aware, the Hawks have been practically unbeatable here at home. Last week, they knocked off the Packers by eight points. The previous week, they completely dominated the Saints, winning 34-7. They’re 16-1 SU their last 17 games here, going 12-5 ATS.
True, the 49’ers have also been very tough on the road. They haven't fared too here though. The Seahawks won 29-3 when the teams met here in September. The previous meeting here saw the Hawks win 42-13.
While the 49’ers did limit Carolina to 10 points last week, they’d previously allowed 20 or more in three consecutive games. On the other hand, the Hawks haven’t allowed an opponent to reach the 20-point mark since mid-November.
While most will certainly be considering the venue, I believe that the Seahawks’ recent schedule will also play a pivotal role.
The Seahawks played here at Seattle last week. They played here at Seattle the previous week. Prior to that, they had a bye. Prior to the bye, they’d played two consecutive home games. In fact, their last road game was on 12/15, more than a month ago.
On the other hand, the 49’ers will be playing their fourth straight road game and their fifth road game since 12/15. Unlike Seattle, they didn’t have a bye during that time. This will mark the seventh consecutive time that they played at a different city than they played at the previous week.
Additionally, while likely less of a factor, it should be noted that Seattle has enjoyed an extra day’s worth of rest. The Hawks played on 1/11, the 49’ers played on 1/12.
While some may believe that Kaepernick gives the 49’ers an edge, I believe Wilson is every bit as capable.
Ultimately, I look for the Hawks’ edges to lead to a win and cover. 10*
River city sharps- Pretty interesting game here today with two of the best teams in C-USA. Over the past several years, La tech has been an ATS darling, going 38-18 ATS in road games in January since 1997 and an even more interesting trend is the fact that Tech is 13-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. La Tech comes into this game on a 7-game winning streak while Southern Miss comes off an impressive win over Rice. Tech scores 85 ppg while So Miss is scoring 73 points per contest. While So Miss may be a slightly better teams defensively, we don't think they can keep up with Tech offensively here today. The Sharps say...
Regulation only. These are two teams that are not equal and that are going in opposite directions. Washington’s decline started just before Christmas but anyone with a sense of hockey knowkledge could see it coming long before that. In 15 games since the 17th of December, the Caps have four wins in 15 games. One of those victories occurred against these Rangers in a game in which the Caps were bombarded with 40 shots on net and they were second best team on the ice. The Caps have dropped four in a row and over that span they have scored six goals while surrendering 13. Washington has also allowed nine goals against in its last two contests. There is a big correlation between losing and shots on net allowed. Washington has allowed the second worst shots on goal average per game in the NHL, ahead of only the Maple Leafs. The Caps are a team in peril because of a weak defense and just one producing line.
The Rangers have won two in a row and five of their past six. Their one loss over that span occurred against Tampa Bay in a game they ran into a super-hot Ben Bishop and lost 2-1. The Rangers have picked up points in seven of their past eight games and they have been outplaying, outshooting, out-chancing and out-working each team along the way. New York is a legit contender that is playing their best hockey of the season and its chances of defeating the vastly inferior Caps in regulation is much greater than 50%, (thus, the value) especially after losing the past two to the Caps this season. In this league, inferior teams seldom defeat superior one’s three games in succession. The Rangers will not be denied this time around.
3½-points seems like an awful lot of points to be spotting a team that has been going as good as the 49ers have been (-3 -120 at Sportsinteraction) been. After all, the 49ers are on a seven game winning streak and are 8-2 on the road this year. San Fran’s offense has looked much sharper than the Seahawks recently but we keep going back to the same question. Why did the Bookmakers add the hook to this game? Surely they could have made it a -3 and “even” things out a little bit in terms of action. That extra half-point in a game that almost everyone figures to be close looms large in the minds of all those on the fence in this contest. We’re not as convinced. The venue is the critical intangible in this game since both the teams play each other at least twice a year and home field has always been critical in winning. Add in the Seahawks being so dominant each time they play at home and it is hard to see just how the 49ers are going to score much. The Seahawks allowed only 12 points on average over their last eight games and they whacked San Fran, 29-3 in this year’s contest in Seattle. Colin Kaepernick only passed for 127 yards and no scores in the first meeting in Seattle and had three interceptions in that disaster. Vernon Davis was held to only 20 yards on three catches since the defense focused on him and Michael Crabtree was not playing. Anquan Boldin was held to only one catch for seven yards. Frank Gore ran for only 16 yards on nine carries. It was a complete failure in all facets and the lowest point of the season for the 49ers.
The Seahawks bring in a dominating defense but one that lost CB Brandon Browner in December. This is still a very formidable unit that is even better at home. Since the week 12 bye, the defense is only allowing about 10 points per game. The offense has been better in home games as well but has been held under 28 points in each of the last five weeks. So, while one must respect what the 49ers have accomplished, fading the Seahawks when they are home cannot be recommended. Russell Wilson has been under some criticism lately and this time of year it becomes an issue that is extremely overstated and over-exaggerated. Wilson makes plays in critical situations and figures to be up to the challenge here. Remember, all these outlets that cover the NFL don’t have 16 games to talk about all week. They have two and everything is blown out of proportion. What you won’t hear about is how the 49ers will be playing their fifth road game in six weeks and third in a row after playing in Carolina last week. Incidentally, they also got every call last week from the refs that killed any momentum the Panthers had the entire first half and into the third quarter. All that travel since Week 15, two tough road games in the playoffs, including one in frigid Green Bay has to take a toll and these are the things that the oddsmakers consider when posting a number while the television folks never mention it. Yeah, it’s tempting and maybe even enticing to take the 3½-points being offered but in terms of all the intangibles, the Seahawks have a big edge and that’s the way we’re playing it.
NOTE: Depending on where you shop there are different lines for this game everywhere. We still recommend playing Seattle @ -3½ if you can't get on for -3.
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