2-1-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Duke at Syracuse

Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange (-2.5)

As if Saturday's showdown between No. 2 Syracuse and No. 16 Duke was not being anticipated enough, the Orange will attempt to break the school record for consecutive wins to open a season when the Blue Devils come to town. In its inaugural season in the ACC, Syracuse is a perfect 20-0, matching the start by the 2011-12 squad, while Duke has won five straight games - the last four coming by at least 15 points. The game also will pit the two winningest active coaches in Division I - the Blue Devils' Mike Krzyzewski (974 wins) and Jim Boeheim of the Orange (939).

"It will be a historic game," Krzyzewski told reporters. "The fact that Jim and I, total, have won over 1,900 games, it’s never been done." Added Syracuse guard Trevor Cooney: "It's exciting, without a doubt. This will be similar to the Georgetown game last year. We just have to stay focused for the next two days and make sure we're prepared." Saturday's encounter will be just the fifth meeting and the first since 1998, when Duke defeated Syracuse in the Sweet 16.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Syracuse as high as -3 and were bet down to -2.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Duke (-13.3) - Syracuse (-17.7) - Home Court (-3.0) = Syracuse -7.4

KEY INJURIES: Duke: N/A. Syracuse: DaJuan Coleman (Out -leg)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Very tough game to handicap. Duke played much tougher schedule (Arizona & Kansas), but Syracuse has defeated all teams in front of them so far. Both teams covering machines recently (Duke 4-0 ATS streak and Cuse 6-0-1 ATS)." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.ag.

WHY BET DUKE (17-4 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 9-11 O/U): Freshman sensation Jabari Parker endured an inconsistent month of January, but closed on a high note with three straight double-doubles, including 21 points and 11 rebounds in Monday's 80-65 victory over Pittsburgh. Parker is the team's leading scorer (18.8) and rebounder (8.1) while Rodney Hood (17.4 points) has emerged as a terrific complement to Parker. The wings on Syracuse's zone must keep an eye on Andre Dawkins, a 47.5 percent 3-point shooter who is 15-of-27 from long range over his last five games.

WHY BET SYRACUSE (20-0 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U): The Orange, who hold a one-game lead over Virginia and sit 1 1/2 games up on Duke and Pittsburgh, have won 15 games by double digits. Two big reasons why are the play of freshman Tyler Ennis (12.3 points, 5.4 assists) and senior C.J. Fair (16.7 points, six rebounds), both of whom play big minutes on a nightly basis. With Jerami Grant thrust into the lineup due to injuries, Boeheim has not received much production from his bench of late, although reserve center Baye Moussa Keita delivered six points, eight rebounds and five blocks in Wednesday's 67-57 victory over Wake Forest.

TRENDS:

* Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Orange are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Under is 7-1 in Orange last eight overall.
* Over is 17-8 in Blue Devils last 25 Saturday games.

CONSENSUS PICKS: 66 percent of bets are on Syracuse -2.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, February 1

Richmond/VCU split last four games, after Rams had won previous six meetings; Spiders won four of last five games but are 1-2 on A-13 road, losing by 14 at St Bonaventure, 20 at Saint Louis. A-13 home favorites of 9+ points are 2-7 vs spread. VCU is 5-1 in A-13 but 0-3 as favorites at home, despite winning by 14-15-16 points- they're forcing turnovers 24.5% of time in A-13 games. Richmond is #1 in A-13 protecting ball.

Ohio State lost five of last six games, Wisconsin lost four of last five, so this is huge game for both sides. Teams are 6-6 in last dozen series tilts, but Badgers won seven of last eight games here, with lone loss 58-52 in '12. Buckeyes lost last three road games by 4-10-6 points; they lost last game at home to Penn State. Badgers are 1-3 as home favorites, losing last two SU. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 6-11 vs spread.

Ohio won six of last seven games with Toledo, winning last five here by 8-11-33-13-9 points. Bobcats won four of their last five games, are 1-3 as MAC home favorites, losing SU to Akron/Bowling Green, winning by 20-4 points. Toledo won its last six games since losing at W. Michigan in MAC opener; they've won road games since at Akron/Miami, O. MAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 2-8 vs spread.

Missouri was outscored 23-12 on line in 90-83 OT loss at Kentucky in only series meeting LY, game Tigers led by 13 in first half. Mizzou won three of last four games, winning last two home games by 21-8 points after losing home opener to Georgia. SEC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 9-1-1 vs spread. Kentucky lost last two road games, allowing 87 points at both Arkansas/LSU, in losses by 2-5 points.

Memphis is 11-2 in last 13 games with SMU, but lost two of last three visits to SMU, in series where home side won five of last six meetings. Tigers won five of last six games, are 4-0 on AAC road- both its losses in league are at home. AAC favorites are 6-2 in games where spread was 5 or less points. Mustangs are 3-0 at home in AAC, winning by 14-17-9 points- they had 4-game win streak snapped at USF Tuesday.

Georgetown lost last five games, is 1-6 since Josh Smtih flunked out of school; three of their last five losses are by 10+ points. Michigan State is down two starters, still won at Iowa last game; they're 10-0 away from home, with seven of ten wins vs top 100 teams. Hoyas are 2-5 top 40 teams, with four of five losses by 13+- they turn ball over 19.5% of the time. Spartans are holding teams to 41.5% inside the arc.

Iowa State was 14-0 before losing 87-82 at Oklahoma Jan 11- they lost four of five games since, with only win by 6 over K-State. Sooners hit 13-30 from arc in first meeting, are 7-4 in last 11 series games, but lost last two visits to Ames by 11-19 points. Oklahoma won three of its last four games, is 3-1 as road dog, with only Big X losses by 6-7 points. Big X home favorites of 7+ points are 5-7 vs spread.

Kansas won five in row, 11 of last 13 games with Texas, winning three in row in Austin by 12-3-5 points. Jayhawks are 4-1-1 as Big X faves, 2-0 on road, winning away games by 7-7-22 points. Longhorns won last five games, are 3-1 at home, with three of the four (dogs 4-0 vs spread) decided by exactly three points. Kansas makes 41.7% of its 3's, turns ball over 21.1% of time in conference play. Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-2-1 vs spread.

Home team won last six UMass-St Joe's games; Minutemen lost two in a row here by 3-11 points- they lost two of last three games after a 16-1 start, losing last two road games, in Richmond/Olean. St Joe's won 10 of its last 12 games; they're 0-2 as A-13 home favorites, beating Duquesne by 9, URI by 4. Hawks are turning ball over 22% of time but shooting 38.6% on arc. A-13 home faves of 5 or less points are 9-5 vs spread.

Duke didn't play road game until January, then lost its first two in ACC play, before winning last two, at Miami/Pitt; Blue Devils make 41.8% of 3's in ACC play, only 42.7% inside arc- will shooting in a packed dome screw up their shooting? ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-7 vs spread. Syracuse is 7-0 in ACC, 1-2 as home favorites, allowing 47.7 ppg in wins by 5-12-5 points- no ACC team has scored 60 on them. .

Iowa lost last eight visits to Illinois, last three by 11+ points, but they won last two games with Illini, by 3-8 points, with one win conference tourney last March. Hawkeyes lost two of last three games, losing last game at home to shorthanded Michigan State- they're 2-2 on Big Dozen road, losing at Wisconsin/Michigan. Big Dozen home underdogs of 6 or less points are 6-5 vs spread. Illini lost last six games, scoring less than 60 points in four of last five.

Home team won five of last six Boise-UNLV games; Broncos lost three games here, by 3-17-4 points. Rebels won last three games, are 1-3 as a home favorite, winning last two home games by 20-2, after losing first two. Road team is 6-2 vs spread in Boise's games; Broncos are 1-2 on MW road, losing by 3 in San Diego, 9 at New Mexico, winning by 9 in Nevada. MW home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-1 vs spread.

Arizona is 8-0 in Pac-12 but failed to cover last three; they're 2-1 as road favorites, winning by 4-20-3 points- they missed 20 foul shots in last two games. Cal won in Tucson LY, its first series win in last four games- Arizona won last two visits here by total of six points, with one of wins in triple OT. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-4 against spread. Golden Bears lost last three games after starting 5-0 in Pac-12.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Denver Money

1* Edmonton Oilers/Boston Bruins over 5.5 +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

Saturday Selection ...

My 60 Dime Selection is on Toledo over Ohio. The current line on this game is +1 1/2 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.


My 10 Dime 3-Team Parlay is on Utah, Missouri and Texas. The current line on these games is Utah +3, Missouri +2 and Texas +4 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PointWise JAN 31 - FEB 6, 2014

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES (5-5 LW)
MIAMI-OHIO over No Illinois (Tues) RATING: 1
OKLAHOMA STATE over Baylor (Sat) RATING: 1
PENN STATE over Purdue (Sun) RATING: 2
HAWAII over Cal-Northridge (Sat) RATING: 2
WICHITA STATE over Indiana St (Wed) RATING: 3
LA-MONROE over Texas State (Thurs) RATING: 3
WM & MARY over Js Madison (Sun) RATING: 4
BOWLING GREEN over Toledo (Wed) RATING: 4
VILLANOVA over Temple (Sat) RATING: 5
NOTRE DAME over Syracuse (Mon) RATING: 5

NCAA BEST BETS Friday Night: COLUMBIA

NCAA BEST BETS Saturday: AKRON, TOLEDO, OKLAHOMA ST, MINNESOTA, NO IOWA,
VILLANOVA, VANDERBILT, PEPPERDINE, AIR FORCE, INDIANA STATE,
OREGON, LOUISVILLE, BYU, HAWAII

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2
NCAA BEST BETS: PENN STATE, WILLIAM & MARY

PW NBA FRIDAY, JANUARY 31 (11-6 LW, they did well)
BEST BETS: ORLANDO, SACRAMENTO, DENVER (3)

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 1
BEST BETS: INDIANA (3), WASHINGTON, NW ORLEANS, CLIPPERS (2)

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2
BEST BET: BOSTON (4)

SUPER BOWL PROPHECY
DENVER 27 - Seattle 22 RATING: 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
no play
(System Record: 55-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 55-51-1

Hockey Crusher
Minnesota Wild -105 over Calgary
(System Record: 63-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 63-46-1

Basketball Crusher
Toronto Raptors +8.5 over Portland Trail Blazers
(System Record: 41-5, lost last game)
Overall Record: 41-52-2

Soccer Crusher
Madureira + Audax Rio UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 519-18, lost last game)
Overall Record: 519-444-75

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

4* Maryland -5½

4* Boston College +7

4* Providence -4½

4* St. Josephs -2½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB SAN JOSE ST at NEW MEXICO
Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN JOSE ST) revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win as an underdog
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

CBB RHODE ISLAND at FORDHAM
Play Against - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (FORDHAM) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team
140-79 since 1997. ( 63.9% 53.7 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% 3.2 units )

CBB WEBER ST at SACRAMENTO ST
Play On - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (SACRAMENTO ST) a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 80 points or more
29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Advanced Sports Investments

nhl releases
jimmy (0-0 +0.00)
1x- columbus -165 florida (7pm)
1x- pittsburgh -132 phoenix (8pm)

marc (0-0 +0.00)
1x- ottawa/toronto - under 6 -110 (7pm)

nba releases
jeff (0-0 +0.00)
1x- washington +4 +100 oklahoma city (7pm)

jimmy (0-0 +0.00)
2x- minnesota -1 atlanta (730pm)

marc (0-0 +0.00)
1x- toronto/portland - over 206 (10pm)

ncaa basketball
jimmy (0-0 +0.00)
1x- louisville -20.5 central florida (9pm)
1x- belmont -9 tennessee tech (830pm)

jeff (0-0 +0.00)
1x- idaho st +4.5 northern arizona (5pm)

soccer
perry (0-0 +0.00)
belgium - jupiler league
1x- r aec mons/club brugge - over 3 -105 (2pm)

england - league 1
1x- carlisle utd/bristol city - over 2.5 -126 (10am)

holland - eredivisie
1x- fc groningen/az alkmaar - over 3 -107 (245pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVID BANKS

NBA
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
The rest of the NBA may be catching up to the two-time defending champion Miami Heat (32-13, 19-26 ATS), and they now must quickly erase the memory of a big loss as they visit the New York Knicks (19-27, 20-26 ATS) at Madison Square Garden Saturday at 8:35 ET on ESPN. The Heat were blown out by the Oklahoma City Thunder back home in Miami 112-95 on Wednesday in a game that was not even as close as that 17-point margin, perhaps the first time in recent memory that the Heat lost a marquee game like that outright at home. The Knicks meanwhile could be playing their best basketball of the season despite three regulars being out, and they can feed off of the energy of the frenzied Garden crowd here like they usually do when LeBron James comes to town.

The fact that the Heat are 19-26 ATS this season is really not that bothersome, as they have been notorious in recent years for just coasting through the regular season and then flipping the switch once the playoffs started, and that approach has obviously suited them well. What is disturbing though is that Miami usually does give its best vs. marquee opponents during the season, and they almost never lose at home under those conditions while covering the spread fairly handily. However, on two such occasions this year at home, they failed to cover the spread while narrowly beating the Indiana Pacers on a last-second shot, and then came Wednesday's debacle where the Heat opened the game with a 22-4 lead and were then outscored 108-73 the rest of the way, and that margin could have been worse if the Thunder did not relax in the latter stages. Can it be that the Heat could be only the third best team in the NBA this season? And it now remains to be seen what their intentions are for this game, as they may sit out Dwayne Wade after nearly doing so in the big game Wednesday.

The Knicks obviously have a great deal of respect for the Heat, but they should not be intimidated considering they are actually 4-1 straight up in the last five regular season meetings with Miami despite being underdogs in every game, including a 102-92 win here at Madison Square Garden in the first and only meeting between these teams so far this season as eight-point dogs. New York is currently without forwards Amar'e Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani as well as guard Iman Shumpert, although the latter is listed as questionable and could conceivably make his return here. Regardless, the Knicks have run off four straight wins during a season-high eight-game home stand that began with three losses and ends with this huge game (at least for the Knicks) on Saturday. And New York has not been coasting to victories either as the four wins during the streak have been by an average of +23.2 points!

In this case, it absolutely screams trap, and with what I heard tonight from the Miami coach, I'llrecommend that we take the Heat and buck the trends!
PICK: Miami Heat -5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

8 Unit Play. #528 Take Wisconsin -5 over Ohio State (12 pm ESPN)
Big 10 Game of the Year.
Both of these teams cannot get out of their own way at the moment, as Ohio State has lost 5 of their last 6 games and Wisconsin has lost 4 of their last 5 games. That being said, Wisconsin only has one bad loss on their resume, this past Wednesday against Northwestern whereas Ohio State has lost their last two games against teams that will not be making the NCAA Tournament (Penn State & Nebraska). So let's dig deeper into both of these teams. Wisconsin has great balance with numerous scorers that can beat you in a variety of ways. Their defense has been subpar this season compared to previous Bo Ryan teams, but does Ohio State really have the players that can threaten Wisconsin at the Kohl Center? My guess is that they do not. Ohio State started of the season 15-0 and were as high as No. 3 in the ranking. But that was misleading, as they played a home heavy schedule mainly against bad mid-major teams. Their two road/neutral site games were against Marquette, a team with no offense and Notre Dame, a team with very little talent. Notre Dame dominated that game in New York but fell apart in the last minute of that game. In fact not one of Ohio State's 16 victories have come against a team that will make the NCAA Tournament come March.

Wisconsin needs to shot the ball better and if they do that they will have no problem putting away Ohio State at the Kohl Center. I actually believe Wisconsin is better than they were one year ago and Ohio State is much worse than they were in 2012-2013. When they teams last met at the Kohl Center on 2/17/13, Wisconsin dominated that game and won by 22 points (led by as many as 26). Aaron Craft is a good player, but he cannot score enough for what they team lost last year to keep Ohio State close in this game. Wisconsin is due for a breakout game in shooting and I am confident it will happen on Saturday. Ohio State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Big 10 games. I have thought in my mind all year long that I wanted to get on Wisconsin with a low number at home for our big play and everything has worked out perfectly for this game. Had Wisconsin beaten Northwestern they would have entered this game as a 9 point favorite. Now we get half of that and are set to attack this weak number.

4 Unit Play. #546 Take St. Johns -2 over Marquette (12:30 pm FS 1) Marquette just does not have any offensive firepower and that means they generally struggle on the road. St. Johns lost to them last year in overtime and I think they want to pay them back in a big way.

4 Unit Play. #555 Take Georgia +4 over Auburn (1:45 pm ESPN 3) Auburn does not warrant to be favored by this many points against anybody in the SEC. Thus we will take the Dawgs and expect this game to go down to the wire with UGA pulling it out by a basket.

4 Unit Play. #606 Take Temple +11.5 over Villanova (4 pm CBSSN) The Wildcats have not been blowing out bad teams of late and I do not expect them to blowout this Big 5 team either. Temple is having a terrible season but this is one of their few remaining games that they will be pumped up for. A win against Villanova could save their season. Temple has covered 8 of their last 9 games against Big East teams.

4 Unit Play. #612 Take Stanford -4 over Arizona State (4 pm PAC-12 Network) Both of these teams are hard to figure out, since they have some puzzling losses on the season but also have quality wins. Stanford has more talent than does ASU and playing at home will allow them to emerge victorious. ASU is coming off an overtime victory at Cal, but they almost never sweep the Bay Area teams on the road. The Cardinal have covered 6 of their last 7 home games.

4 Unit Play. #622 Take OVER - Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt (5 pm FSN) Whatever the line is on this game we will take the over. We will update this on Saturday morning with the established line.

4 Unit Play. #624 Take LSU -5 over Arkansas (5 pm ESPN U) A low number against Arkansas on the road is an automatic play for us. During Mike Anderson's three years at Arkansas he has defeated just 1 SEC team on the road and it is not LSU (Auburn).

4 Unit Play. #625 Take Washington -2.5 over Washington State (6 pm) We went against Wazzou on Sunday and I thought there was a chance Ken Bone would be fired on Monday. That did not happen, but he is still a lame duck coach and has not talent whatsoever.

4 Unit Play. #642 Take Syracuse -2.5 over Duke (6:30 pm ESPN) Syracuse is not Pittsburgh and has much more offensive firepower than do the Panthers. Syracuse is undefeated and I just do not see them losing a game at the Carrier Dome this season. The Orange is 5-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 games overall. Duke has already lost road games at Clemson & Notre Dame and thus we will lay the field goal on Saturday. The fans are pumped since the College Gameday crew is in town!

4 Unit Play. #659 Take Iowa -5 over Illinois (7:30 pm BTN) Iowa just could not make a shot against Michigan State on Tuesday or they would have won that game by double digits. Expect a much easier time scoring points tonight against Illinois, a team that has lost 6 straight games.

5 Unit Play. #688 Take BYU -6 over Saint Mary's CA (10 pm ESPN 2) BYU at home is a much different team that BYU on the road. Saint Mary's lost all of their talent from last year and this will be a high scoring game that BYU wins by double digits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Over 201 - Heat/Knicks
100* Seton Hall +8
50* Rutgers -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

3 Unit Play. Take Lebron James points (Heat) -5.5 -115 over Seahawks points (6:25p.m., Sunday, Feb 2 FOX) **Miami plays on Saturday against the New York Knicks**
One reason why I like this prop bet is that Lebron James Saturday night is playing at Madison Square Garden and you figure he will want to put on a show to all of the celebrities watching this game live. Carmelo threw up 60 points a week ago in the Garden so I see Lebron having anything around 28-35 points. I don't see Seattle scoring more then 21 points. King James has a big game in New York Saturday night

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer Underdog Beatdown

Illinois

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy 10* CBB Underdog Shocker

San Francisco