2-2-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 48.0 - Seattle at Denver (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)

2-Unit Play. Take #101 Seattle (+2.5) over Denver (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)
I actually really like the Seahawks in this game. But the one worry I have is whether or not this team is veteran enough, savvy enough, and desperate enough to win this game. I like going with the more experienced team in the Super Bowl and Seattle is still a really young group.

However, Seattle has to be the play in this one. The NFC is so much better than the AFC and has been all year. It's not even close. When you compare Denver's schedule and division to Seattle's schedule and division its really not even close. All year long the NFC has been a "token" 2.5-point favorite over the AFC. That's generic line for just Random NFC Team vs. Random AFC Team. But then when the Broncos won the AFC they were instantly posted as a 2.5-point favorite. That makes no sense from a strategic standpoint.

But you have to understand the position of the sportsbooks. They know that everyone and their sister - ever square bettor on the planet that is getting down on this game - is going to back Peyton Manning. Everyone is betting the Broncos and the pre-packaged narrative is "one more for Peyton to solidify his legacy as the best ever!". This spread isn't indicative of the actual talent and teams. It is a number purely for the public.

So I am going with Seattle. This Super Bowl reminds me a lot of the Giants-Patriots matchup two years ago. It is the exact same situation. The Giants were obviously the better team going into the game, but the Patriots were the nominal favorite because everyone and their sister was going to put their money on Tom Brady. It was a good game. A close game. But the Giants won outright and easily cashed in the underdog role. I think that Seattle has been one of the top three or four teams in football the last two years. They are the more physical, violent team and I think that they are going to get the job done here. I will take the better defense, the better running game, and the team that is better from players Nos. 2-52. Defense, field position, and avoiding mistakes will make this a relatively conservatively called Super Bowl, and I think that this game is played in the low-20's and high-teens. I can see this one being 23-21, 20-17 or 24-20. Somewhere around there, with Seattle winning.

4-Unit Play. Shortest Touchdown Scored Will Be - OVER 1.5 Yards (-115)

2-Unit Play. Take Pass Receptions Made By Zach Miller - Over 2.0 (-140)

2-Unit Play. What Will Happen For The First Coaches Challenge - OVERTURNED (-115)

1-Unit Play. Longest Field Goal Made In the Game Will Be UNDER 44.5 Yards (-115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chad Matthews

7-Unit Play. #102 Denver Broncos -2 over the Seattle Seahawks (Feb 2 @ 6:30pm ET)
The Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks square off in the biggest game of the year this Sunday. This game features the top ranked defense with Seattle only giving up 14.4 points per game this season. On the other side we have the top ranked offense as the Broncos are averaging an impressive 36.4 points per game. This matchup will be played at Met Life stadium in New York where conditions are expected to be in the mid 30's for game time. As expected the Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl bound as all they had to do to punch their big ticket was win at home. This game I expect to be somewhat of a road game for Seattle without their 12th man home crowd and more than likely a stronger Broncos fan base at this game. Peyton Manning has been red hot this season, showing the world that he may just be the greatest quarterback of all time. Manning has been known to choke when it comes to big games that count the most but this year is different. Everything Manning touches this year has turned to gold as the veteran is one of the greatest coordinators of an offense you might ever see play the game. The Broncos are a perfect 4-0 against the spread the last four matchups between these two teams dating back to 2001. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has many options to go to this weekend on offense as he has shown he is good at spreading the ball out making it difficult for defenses to identify exactly who to key in on. It's really a no brainer here as I expect Denver to complete its quest of a spectacular season and it's difficult to back Wilson over Manning in this spot. Take the Broncos at -2 here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

2-Unit Play. Take #101 Seattle (+2.5) over Denver (6:30 p.m., Sunday, February 2)
I will take defense over offense in this game. I will take Peyton Manning to not get the job done in the big game. I will take the youthful Seahawks to show the vaunted Denver Broncos offense that controlling the clock and taking care of the football wins games in bad weather. The forecast for this game is now calling for rain instead of snow, which plays directly into the hands of Seattle. I know that Seattle has not shown that they are as dangerous on the road as they are in front of their home fans, but I still feel that they come out on top in this one. The winner of the San Francisco/Seattle game was just a better team than their counterparts in the AFC. Prior to this game the NFC was the favorite for the Super Bowl, but due to Denver making it they changed their minds. Seattle was also the favorite to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season, but now they are underdogs in the game due to Peyton Manning. Again, I will take the defense in this one as they get the job done late. You have to make a stop in the Super Bowl to win, and I would rather have my money on the defense capable of making said stop.

3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 34.5 yards rushing (-115) by Monte Ball (6:30 p.m., Sunday, February 2)
The Broncos are going to spread out their offense to try and create mismatches on the outside versus this Seahawks defense. This is going to open running games for the Broncos. Most people will jump right on to Knowshon Moreno and his rushing total, but the true value is on Monte Ball. Thus far this playoff season Ball has rushed for 52 yards and 43 yards respectively. He also rushed for more than 35 yards in four of his last six regular season games, including a 77-yard performance and a 117-yard performance. The Broncos know that they will have to be able to run the ball effectively to win this game and that will mean roughly 10-carries for Ball and at least 40 yards rushing. Take the 'over' with Monte Ball's total yards rushing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INDIAN COWBOY

3-Unit Play. #101. Take Seattle +2.5 over Denver Broncos (Sunday @ 6:30pm est).
The last public consensus that we saw had the Broncos favored by 68% of the public. The line actually opened up at a pick-em and now it sits at the Broncos -2.5 as the public has increased this line. It sounds exciting and very "Cindarella-ish" if you will. Peyton Manning, post surgery, the greatest offense in NFL History, rolls in and wins his 2nd Super Bowl and becoming the first quarterback in the history of the NFL to win with 2 separate teams - and therefore, establishing himself as likely the greatest NFL Quarterback of all time. Fantastic. But, that likely won't happen. When the Broncos faced the Seahawks earlier this year - albeit in pre-season in Seattle, the Seahawks dominated and routed this team by essentially 30 points. Sure, it's pre-season and it doesn't count in the record. But, the fact remains, the Seahawks are fantastic at causing turnovers as they did to Hillman and stripping the receivers. The Broncos will get their yards and consequently move the ball but the difference will be allowing field goals instead of touchdowns and the other key is causing turnovers which is what the Seahawks do well. Pete Carroll is a coaching genius and is a secondary coach by nature as well as a defensive coach by nature. Carrol is also one of the best game planners as well and as good as the Broncos are, the defense will be allowed to play and be physical here which will cause problems for the Broncos as the Seahawks are one of the few teams in the league that have several lock down corners and not just Sherman. On top of that, they have a defensive front that are some of the most physical in the league and will cause all sorts of problems for Manning. This is a defense that is athletic, physical and of course is number one in the league and if you take a look at the contests the Broncos lost, they are to teams that have the ability to be physical and are able to run the ball. This is a quality public fade as if the Broncos were truly expected to win this game, you would see a line to the effect of -6.5 overall. But, it sits at -2.5 and it allows for a quality public fade. The Seahawks are 13-4 ATS when facing a team with a winning record, the Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as they are usually a public team - and the Seahawks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 on Field Turf whereas the Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 contests on Field Turf.

2-Unit Play. #102. Take Under 48 - Seattle vs. Denver Broncos (Sunday @ 6:30pm est):
This is a small public fade. What Seattle will try do to this game and what Carroll without a doubt will game plan is to keep this Broncos offense off the field. And, with a legitimate running game (note, Seattle has 47% of its plays as designed run plays - largest in the league). So, how do you stop the greatest offense in NFL History? Just keep them off the field. Look for Seattle defense to run the ball, drain the clock, and take possession with shorter passes and to have long extended drives. This is the same team that has faced other potent offenses such as the Saints and they consistently got up for them by keeping such offenses off the field. This is not a far cry for this team to gameplan and as a team that dominated the Broncos at home in a pre-season game, this team by no means is intimidated by Denver and look for this team to take the public down a bit here as this game likely goes under the posted total. Combine that with Denver's defense feeling slighted as the talk has constantly been about the Seattle defense with Danny Trevathan even recently being quoted as saying, "everyone is overlooking me" and by the end of the game no one will overlook me again (synopsis). Look for this Denver defense to get up as they will look to take that slight out on Russel Wilson as Seattle does not have a potent offense to begin with. Thus, look for this game to likely go under the posted total. The Under is 7-0 in the Seahawks last 7 contests overall, the Under is 5-0 for the Seahawks following a win and the Under is 4-0 for the Broncos following a win as well.

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Field Goals made by Matt Prater. Over 1.5.
Yes. (-120)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will Either team score Score 3 Unanswered times in the Game?
No. (+155)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will either team score in the Final 2 Minutes of the First Half.
No. (+200)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will either team score in the Final 3.5 Minutes of the Game.
No. (+140)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will both teams Make more than 33 Yard Field Goals?
Yes. (+175)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total QB Sacks by Both Teams Over 4.5
Yes. (+140)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. First Kickoff for Steven Hauschka be Touchback.
Yes. (+155)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. First Kickoff for Prater be Touchback.
Yes. (+150)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest TD of the Game. Over 44.5.
Yes. (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will the Team that Scores first Win the Game?
No. (+150)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Interceptions by Both Teams.
Over 1.5 (-130)

Prop. 2-Unit Play.. Total Fumbles Over 1.5 by Both Teams.
Over 1.5 (+150)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Rushing Yards by Russel Wilson Over 30.5.
Yes. (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest Rush by Russel Wilson Over 11.5 Yards.
Yes. (+110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest Completion by Russell Wilson Over 38.5
Yes. (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest Rush by Robert Turbin. Over 5.5 Yards.
Yes. (-120)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Number of Different Seahawks to Score. Over 3.5 (Includes Kicker and 2 point conversions Count)
Over 3.5 (+160)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total 1st Quarter Points by the Seahawks. Over 3.5 Points.
Over 3.5 Points (-110).

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total 3rd Down Conversions by the Seahawks.
Over 5.0 (+120)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest Completion by Peyton Manning.
Over 34.5 (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Receiving Yards by Moreno. Over 24.5.
Over 24.5. Yes. (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Most Completions +10.5 Russel Wilson over Peyton Manning (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Most Gross Passing Yards +78.5 Yards Russel Wilson over Peyton Manning (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Highest Scoring Quarter by Both Teams. Under 20 (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Lebron James will have more 3-point field goals than Russel Wilson will have Touchdown Passes (+105)

Prop. 1-Unit Play. Total Points Scored between 41-45 (+600)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. First Half-Winner Seahawks (+180)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 48.0 - Seattle at Denver (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)

3-Unit Play. Take First Half 'Under' 23.5 - Seattle at Denver (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)

3-Unit Play. Take First Half #102 Denver (-0.5) over Seattle (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2) -
NFL 411 System Play
My best feeling about this game is on the total. I expect this game to be low-scoring and close. Peyton Manning went 'under' in his first Super Bowl against the Bears. Manning also went 'under' in his second Super Bowl against the Saints. The 'under' is 6-3 in the last nine Super Bowls. And none of those games were played in the cold and outdoors like it will be on Sunday in Giants Stadium. The temperature is going to drop below freezing in this game and that is going to slow things down. The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the NFL and their defense will play well. The Broncos defense has been improving. They have been playing great over the last few weeks. They have held the last four teams they have played below 17 points. I think that both teams are going to try to run the ball. Both will want to get their running backs going. That will keep the clock going.

I will also be betting on the Broncos in the first half of this game. I think they will get off to a faster start. That will be because of Manning's experience. And because of the experience of John Fox and several key Broncos. But I do not want to worry about who wins in the second half of the game. It will be a slow start and a low scoring first half. And this game will stay 'under' in the second half no matter who wins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

SUPER BOWL SUNDAY PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #102 Take Denver -130 over Seattle (6:25p.m., Sunday, Feb 2 FOX)
When the Super Bowl number was set 2 weeks ago I grabbed the Denver Broncos -1 and I still believe that the Denver Broncos will win this game. I heard today that the forecast will be between 45 degrees and the low of maybe 25 degrees and the biggest part for me is baely no wind. If no wind that I see Peyton Manning having a big game and I see the Broncos owning the 2nd half. I like how Denver had complete ball control against New England and I see the same results Sunday night and Denver winning Super Bowl 48. Wouldn't surprise me to see Peyton Manning get MVP and pull a John Elway and retire! Denver is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and my prediction on the score will be 28-17.

2 Unit Play. #101 Take Under 48.0 - Seattle vs Denver (6:25p.m., Sunday, Feb 2 FOX)
I see defense ruling the 1st half of the game and scoring in the 2nd half. Weather will probably not be a factor on this total but both teams have great D's. The Seahawks last 7 games all 7 of them have gone under the total and the Broncos are 0-4 O/U following a SU win.

SUPER BOWL PROP BET PLAYS

2 Unit Play. Take Over 3 ½ +110 Marshawn Lynch First Rushing Attempt (6:25p.m., Sunday, Feb 2 FOX)
Beast mode averaged 4.2ypg so getting +105 on 3.5 I thought was a good bet. Hopefully Lynch breaks to the outside in his first rushing attempt and falls forward. Denver opponent's averaged 3.9ypg on the Bronco D and Sunday night I see a 5-6 yard run in Beast Mode's first rushing attempt.

6 Unit Play. Take Yes -110 Will The Broncos Get a Rushing Touchdown (6:25p.m., Sunday, Feb 2 FOX)
This prop bet seemed way off to me! The Broncos rushed for 16 touchdowns this season and I just don't see Denver not rushing for one Sunday night. It's no secret that I like Denver to win the game and if they are in the red zone I'm predicting that Moreno or yes Peyton Manning rush for a touchdown.

3 Unit Play. Take Lebron James points (Heat) -5.5 -115 over Seahawks points (6:25p.m., Sunday, Feb 2 FOX) **Miami plays on Saturday against the New York Knicks**
One reason why I like this prop bet is that Lebron James Saturday night is playing at Madison Square Garden and you figure he will want to put on a show to all of the celebrities watching this game live. Carmelo threw up 60 points a week ago in the Garden so I see Lebron having anything around 28-35 points. I don't see Seattle scoring more then 21 points. King James has a big game in New York Saturday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Super Bowl seconds: A cheet sheet for Sunday's other games

Contrary to popular belief, the Super Bowl isn't the only sporting event taking place Sunday. Maybe you aren't an NFL fan or perhaps you simply want to mix in some wagers from some of Sunday's other sporting events.

Whatever the case, we've got you covered with a comprehensive betting cheat sheet from the rest of the sports world.

EPL: West Brom v Liverpool (+475, +333, -167)
New West Brom gaffer Pepe Mel is still trying to figure out exactly what his best XI actually is and still searches for his first win in charge of the club. The Baggies sit 17th in the table and could be destined for the relegation zone if they don't starting collecting three points with a bit more regularity. Nicolas "Le Sulk" Anelka was injured against Aston Villa and could miss out here.

The Reds are flying of late and are coming off a massive 4-0 win over Everton in the Merseyside Derby. Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge continue to fire on all cylinders with the former netting one and the latter bagging a pair versus Everton. If they want to keep up with the rest of the Premier League heavyweights, three points is imperative at the Hawthorns.

TRENDS:
* Liverpool has scored at least two goals in eight of their last 10 Premier League matches.
* Liverpool won the reverse fixture 4-1 at Anfield back in October.
* West Brom has just nine points in 12 away matches in the Premier League.
* Liverpool has played Over the 2.5 goal total in 12 of the last 13 games.

EPL: Arsenal v Crystal Palace (-450, +600, +1400)
With three points, the Gunners can reclaim the top spot in the league table with current leaders Manchester City hosting Chelsea Monday. Much was made about potential incoming transfers during the January window - especially at striker - but nothing was done to address the need. With the extremely tough schedule ahead, a full three points here is the only result Arsenal will be satisfied with.

Tony Pulis has brought new life to the promoted side, including coming off of back-to-back wins, but Palace's road woes are well documented. They've mustered just five goals away from home the season (worst in the league) and the Gunners have feasted on smaller clubs at home. It's a tall order, but the Eagles have a bit of momentum and will fight to stay out of the relegation zone.

TRENDS:
* Palace has lost nine of its last 11 away matches in the Premier League.
* Arsenal won the reverse fixture 2-0 back in October.
* Arsenal has eight wins and two draws in their last 10 matches at the Emirates.
* Palace has kept a clean sheet in back-to-back matches.

NBA: Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (-5, 191.5)
The Orlando Magic look to win back-to-back games for the first time since late December when they visit the struggling Boston Celtics on Sunday afternoon. The Magic recorded a 113-102 victory over Milwaukee on Friday and will try to end a 10-game losing streak on the road, where they are an NBA-worst 3-21.

Boston is only 3-19 since Dec. 16 and has not won in the six games All Star guard Rajon Rondo has played since his return from knee surgery. The Celtics could get second-leading scorer Avery Bradley back from an ankle injury as they attempt to snap out of a funk which saw them drop near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

TRENDS:
* Magic are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Boston.
* Magic are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Celtics last eight home games.

NHL: Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals (-130, 5.5)
After welcoming the returns of captain Henrik Zetterberg (back) and Howard (knee) on Friday, Detroit now turns its undivided attention to the long-term absence of Pavel Datsyuk. "I don't know," coach Mike Babcock told MLive.com when asked if the Russian superstar was close to returning. "I'm just like (the reporters). I just keep asking." Datsyuk has been sidelined since the Winter Classic on New Year's Day.

Joel Ward was credited with the game-tying goal with seven seconds left in regulation after deflecting captain Alex Ovechkin's blast. Washington is not without its own injury concerns as Brooks Laich exited Friday's tilt with tightness in his groin. Laich did not practice on Saturday and is questionable to face the Red Wings.

TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Washington.
* Red Wings are 1-6 in their last seven games following a win.
* Capitals are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Under is 4-0 in Capitals last four home games.

NHL: Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens (-141, 5.5)
Eric O’Dell missed Friday’s game for the birth of his first child but will return to the lineup Sunday. Devin Setoguchi scored twice on Friday after recording one point in his previous 13 contests. Evander Kane has missed two games with a hand infection and is not expected to return before the Olympic break.

A flu bug is sweeping through Montreal’s locker room, infecting players like Louis Leblanc, Brandon Prust and Michael Bournival. David Desharnais finished January with six points in eight games playing on a line with Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher. Daniel Briere has three points in his last two games despite being limited to 16:20 total ice-time in that span.

TRENDS:
* Jets are 0-6 in the last six meetings.
* Jets are 7-2 in their last nine overall.
* Canadiens are 12-5 in their last 17 games playing on 0 days rest.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Canadiens last five home games.

NCAAB: South Florida Bulls at Cincinnati Bearcats (-14.5)
The Bulls are among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation as they shoot 26.2 percent as a group with only injured point guard Anthony Collins (38.9 percent) making more than a third of his attempts. Leading scorer Victor Rudd (14.7 points) has been particularly awful from behind the arc of late, knocking down just two of his 17 attempts over the last five games. If South Florida is going to have any shot to win this game, Heath needs more production out of Corey Allen Jr., who scored 18 points against SMU to bounce back from four straight poor outings, including a scoreless effort in the first matchup with the Bearcats.

Sean Kilpatrick, a 6-4 guard, has scored in double figures in 21 of the Bearcats' 22 games and has made multiple 3-pointers in each of the last five contests. Rubles is a stark contrast to Kilpatrick, not attempting a 3-pointer all season but rather doing his damage in the paint to the tune of 7.4 points and 6.4 boards. Jackson, who has battled through an ankle injury this week, hopes to duplicate his all-around effort against Louisville - 11 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks.

TRENDS:
* Bulls are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati.
* Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 39-13-1 in Bulls last 53 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 42-12 in Bearcats last 54 overall.

NCAAB: Virginia Cavaliers at Pittsburgh Panthers (-4)
The Cavaliers don’t have a player averaging 12 points or better but sophomore guard Malcolm Brogdon has surpassed his current team-leading scorer average (11.6) in the last seven games and has reached double figures in a season-high eight straight overall. Brogdon hasn’t just been scoring lately either, producing a season-best five steals while matching his highs of seven rebounds and six assists in Tuesday’s 15-point win against Notre Dame. Brogdon is also a combined 6-for-9 from 3-point range in the last two games.

Malcolm Brogdon will likely be matched against the Panthers’ best player, 6-5 small forward Lamar Patterson, unless Pittsburgh chooses to use a bigger body with 6-8 forward Akil Mitchell. Patterson has reached double figures in scoring in 19 consecutive games and is averaging a team-high 17.7 points, which ranks fourth in the conference. Talib Zanna had been a quality second option for the Panthers, reaching double figures in all eight conference games.

TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Under is 19-9 in Cavaliers last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 16-5 in Panthers last 21 overall.

NCAAB: Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (+2)
The Wolverines have not lost since Dec. 14 - a two-point heartbreaker against No. 1 Arizona - but coach John Beilein still was not thrilled after Thursday's 75-66 win over Purdue. "The one thing I've learned first as a coach is that the only thing that can be really consistent is your defense, and it's not, and we're working on it," Beilein told reporters. "But if (the offensive consistency) keeps happening, I'll be happy as hell."

Hoosiers coach Tom Crean was not thrilled with freshman Noah Vonleh, who had as many turnovers (five) as shots attempted against Nebraska. “He had a tough night,” Crean told reporters after Thursday's 60-55 defeat. “He was out there, he worked hard. He wasn’t as emphatic and decisive with the ball as he needed to be. He got the ball, but it was one of those nights. He’s 18.” Vonleh is averaging 11.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks on the season, although he has just 11 combined points over the last two games.

TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Indiana.
* Wolverines are 5-16-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
* Hoosiers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bones Best Bet

teaser - 2 games - 7 points - ties reduce
SEAHAWKS +8 / SEAHAWKS BRONCOS - U55 -120 *5* BEST BET
Seattle did not lose by 8 points all season. Their defense is simply too dominant to get blown in any football game - even against the almighty Broncos. You will see a lot of the Seattle ground game tomorrow between Lynch, Wilson, Turbin, and maybe even some Harvin and you will see them able to move the chains in doing so. Manning won't be "stopped" but he will definitely be slowed by this Seahawks secondary and at the end of the day we will you be the see the Seattle Seahawks as the Superbowl Champions.

As we stated above, the Seahawks will pound the rock - moving the chains and keep the clock running. In their 2 playoff games this year we saw 38 and 40 total points scored. In Denver's two playoff games this year there was 41 and 42 total points scored - nowhere near the 55 we have with this teaser. Denver also using a lot more of Moreno than we saw earlier in the year, while they're still able to score, they're taking their time doing so. Expecting something like a 23-20 final in what will be a fantastic game.

SEAHAWKS @ BRONCOS - U48 -105 *2*

Prop Bets

CALDWELL RECEPTIONS O1.5 +175 *1*
CALDWELL YARDS O9.5 +115 *1*

GREEN RECEPTIONS O0.5 +155 *1*

TAMME RECEPTIONS O0.5 +125 *1*

COMBINED YARDAGE OF ALL MADE FIELD GOALS O110.5 -110 *1*

HAUSCHKA O8 POINTS +115 *1*

PRATER O8 POINTS -105 *1*

LYNCH O91.5 YARDS +100 *1*

BRONCOS HALFTIME LEAD / SEAHAWKS FULLTIME +860 *0.5*

A LEAD CHANGE IN 2ND HALF +145 *1*

LARGEST POINT LEAD IN GAME U13.5 +125 *1*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Super Bowl XLVIII betting: Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-2, 48)

Peyton Manning has commanded center stage from the moment he was taken with the top overall draft pick in 1998 and the spotlight will never be brighter than when he leads the Denver Broncos against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday night at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium.

Manning put together the finest season by a quarterback in NFL history - shattering records for touchdowns and yards - and a victory could settle the debate of whether he is the greatest quarterback of all time. Conversely, a loss by the Broncos will drop the league's only four-time (and soon to be five) MVP below .500 in the postseason and 1-2 in Super Bowls to bolster the argument by his detractors that he continually comes up short in the big game.

Who's No. 1? It is the quintessential matchup, pitting the Broncos' top-ranked offense against Seattle's league-best defense, marking only the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the NFL's highest-scoring team (Denver, 606 points) squared off against an opponent that surrendered the fewest points (Seattle, 231).

“We wouldn’t have it any other way,” bombastic Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said. “They’re an unbelievable record-setting offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback. That’s as tough as it gets. The No. 1 defense against the No. 1 offense.” It is also only the second time in 20 seasons that the No. 1 seeds in each conference reached the Super Bowl - the last coming when Manning's Indianapolis Colts lost to New Orleans in Super Bowl XLIV four years ago.

The first outdoor cold-weather Super Bowl - and the potential for playing in a blizzard - caused a lot of teeth-gnashing leading up to the game, but conditions are expected to be relatively benign with temperatures in the mid-30s and light winds. That's a huge plus for Manning and a Broncos' offense that features an unprecedented five players to have scored at least 10 touchdowns.

“We’ve spread the ball around so well all season, so it’s hard for teams to know who to key on,” said Manning, who was held to a season-low 150 yards passing in bitter cold and high winds at New England in late November. Seattle has built a legendary home-field advantage at CenturyLink Field but like Denver, has already played at MetLife this season. The Seahawks blanked the New York Giants 23-0 on Dec. 15 while the Broncos scored 31 second-half points in a 41-23 victory over the Giants on Sept. 15.

Looking for more betting info on Super Bowl XLVIII? Here are our 48 betting notes for betting Super Bowl XLVIII.

TV: 6:25 p.m. ET, Fox.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low 40s, above freezing with a 23 percent chance of rain turning to ice pellets in the fourth quarter. Winds are expected to blow NNW from corner to corner at MetLife Stadium at speeds of 4-6 mph.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at a pick'em and immediately drew action on the Broncos, pumping the spread as high as Denver -3.5. Seahawks money came back and bought the underdog, trimming this line down to -2. The total opened 47.5 and was bet down to 47 with the extended forecast calling for bad weather in East Rutherford. However, with the weather clearing up, action on the Over has drive the number as high as 48.5.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.3) - Broncos (-7.0) = Seahawks -0.3

KEY INJURIES: Seattle: Jordan Hill DT (Prob. - Groin), Percy Harvin WR (Prob. - Concussion), Doug Baldwin WR (Prob. - Hip), Brandon Browner (Out - Suspension). Denver: Mitch Unrein DT (Prob. - Knee), Knowshon Moreno (Prob. - Ribs), Tony Carter CB (Prob. - Arm), Matt Prater (Prob. Illness), Sione Fua (Ques. - Calf).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "If we don't start seeing more Seahawks money we might, might have to get to Denver -3. Personally, I don't want that to happen but everyone is in love with the Broncos and with the early weather reports calling for a decent day in Jersey, getting to -3 isn't out of the question. At this point, it might be the only way to see some Seahawks money but it really will expose us to getting sided on the biggest game of the year. Going to -3 and then this game landing three, I'll be looking for work come Monday." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Looks like line will not hit key number of +3. Has already dropped from +2.5 to +2 at many sportsbooks. Surprisingly, the O/U line has come back down from 48.5 to 48, however, I think the public will push this higher on Sunday. If a +3 does show on Sunday with more public money on Denver, I believe it will quickly disappear with Seahawks money at +3. Line will likely close around +2 like it is now." - Steve Merril.

WHY BET SEATTLE (15-3 SU, 12-6-0 ATS, 6-12 O/U): Aside from allowing 14.4 points per game, Seattle surrendered the fewest total yards and passing yards while leading the league in takeaways (39) and interceptions (28), including a league-best eight by Sherman. Quarterback Russell Wilson tied Ben Roethlisberger for the second-most wins (27) in his first two seasons but he did not throw for more than one touchdown or 215 yards in his past six games.

One of the reasons is bullish running back Marshawn Lynch, who has gone over 100 yards four times in six postseason games and rushed for 249 yards and three TDs in the Seahawks' playoff wins over New Orleans and San Francisco. Wilson will also get back a big weapon in wideout Percy Harvin, who played in only one game during the regular season after recovering from hip surgery and suffered a concussion in the victory over New Orleans that caused him to miss the next contest.

WHY BET DENVER (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 11-7 O/U): Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are only the second tandem with more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Add in Wes Welker (87 catches, 10 TDs) and tight end Julius Thomas (65 catches, 12 TDs) along with 1,000-yard rusher Knowshon Moreno and it's not hard to see why Manning threw for 55 scores and 5,477 yards - both NFL single-season records.

Denver's high-powered offense overshadowed a much-maligned defense that has made enormous strides and yielded an average of 14 points over the past four games since a 27-20 home loss to San Diego on Dec. 12. "We kind of made a pact after the San Diego loss," said Broncos coach John Fox, the sixth coach to lead two different teams to a Super Bowl. "Basically, everybody made a pact that we're going to be the best we can be these last five games. We've gone through four of them; we've got one remaining."

SUPER BOWL TRENDS:

* The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.

* This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense three of the four previous meetings. In addition, teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.

* The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.

* The big story in the world of NFL totals this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the Over.

CONSENSUS PICKS: 66 percent of bets on Broncos (-2), 51 percent on Over 48.

[golden contender]

GC: PAC 12 Play

On Sunday its the FIRST EVER 7* Rating for a SUPER BOWL. This one has an Incredible 5 100% SYSTEMS+ ANGLES. The best of Which is a rare Indicator DATES TO 1959 in ALL NFL Championship games even before The inception of the actual Super Bowl. This is the MOST Comprehensive analysis the industry,perhaps in the Country on this game. There also 7 BONUS PROPS. You wont see data like this ANY where else. To start things off we have an Early BIG 10 Play and an NBA Play. Free PAC 12 Play below.

On Super Bowl Sunday the Free PAC 12 Play is on UCLA. Game 817 at 2:30 eastern. UCLA has owned this series with Oregon St and has won and covered 11 of the 14 here vs the Beavers. The Bruins are also a solid 5-1 straight up and to the spread vs winning teams and have won all 14 times as a favorite this season with 11 spread wins. In games vs teams who score 77 or more they are 3-1 to the spread. Oregon St is 2-6 vs teams who score 77 or more and has lost 12 of the last 15 February games they have played and have dropped 7 of 11 vs winning teams to the spread. We will lay the couple of points here with UCLA. End the week big tonight with the 7* Super Bowl winner and our 2 early Hoops plays in NCAAB And NBA. Enjoy the big game and take UCLA as the free College Hoops play. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mr East "Super Bowl Props"

TOTAL COMBINED ACCEPTED PENALTIES? UNDER 12.5 -150 It is easy to see which way the odds makers want you to bet offering sucker odds on the over at +120, and deterrent odds on the over, and rightfully so, but just a bad line all together. While both of these teams were heavily penalized this season, that has been the case in prior Super Bowl's as well, without any change in how these games are called. Once you get into the playoffs the referees swallow the whistles as much as possible. Let's take a look at all NFL games over 20+ years and what we see is the following in all regular season games: 2928 times a game resulted in more than 12 penalties 2,928 times and less than 13 penalties 3185 times. That represents 47.9% of all games having 13 or more penalties, making the odds here not worth wagering on. Now let's take a look at all playoff games over the last 12 years and we see an entirely different picture. There were 13 or more total penalties in 41 games, and 12 or less in 101 games. That means just 28.9% of all games would go over the 12.5 posted here, and we have tremendous value on the under. Looking at the last 23 Super Bowls we see similar numbers with just 6 of the 23 having had 13 or more penalties 26.1% of all games, right in line with the entire playoff picture. I like the value on the under here.

WILL THERE BE A SCORELESS QUARTER IN THE GAME? NO -280 This prop based on all Super Bowl games to date show that 15 of the 47 Super Bowl games played have seen a scoreless quarter, or 31.9% of all games. That is right within a statistical acceptance range of the -280 line offered here. However, when you look back at the early years of the Super Bowl, scoring was at a premium. The first 11 Super Bowls played saw 7 games feature a scoreless quarter, and a lot of that is based on what scoring was like in that era. The defenses ruled, and in those first 11 Super Bowls the posted total was an average of 37. What has since happened, counting those 11 games, all Super Bowl totals have averaged 46. It is certainly probable that games with a posted total in the 30s would feature a higher rate of scoreless quarters by default. looking in the most recent era where NFL scoring has risen, if you take the last 16 years, and look at totals posted from 45-49 we see that 7 of the 8 have not featured a scoreless quarter. Denver has also only had 11 scoreless quarters in their 18 games, out of 72 possibilities, or just 15.3% of all quarters, ad Seattle just 15 out of their 72, or 20.8% of the time. Looking aat the Seattle defense we see 33 of 72 scoreless quarters and Denver with 22 of 72. Denver has had only 1 game all season where they were shutout in more than 1 quarter, and Seattle just 3, so for both to match up with a 0 in the same qurter is certainly less likely than the -280 odds offered here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- None

Cold Teams
-- Boston lost seven of last eight games, are 9-14-1 vs spread at home. Magic lost five of last seven games, are 9-15 vs spread on road.

Series records
-- Celtics won ten of their last eleven games with Orlando.

Totals
-- 18 of 24 Orlando road games stayed under the total.

Back to backs
-- None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Winnipeg won seven of its last nine games.

Cold teams
-- Washington lost seven of its last nine games. Detroit was outscored 7-0 in losing its last three road games.
-- Montreal lost five of its last seven games.

Totals
-- Last five Detroit road games stayed under the total. Last three Washington games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Winnipeg games went over the total.

Series records
-- Red Wings lost three of last four games with Washington.
-- Canadiens won their last six games with Winnipeg.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Orlando at Boston

The Celtics look to snap a four-game losing streak against an Orlando team that is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games. Boston is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 801-802: Orlando at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 108.117; Boston 116.351 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 8; 186 Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5; 191 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sports Network:

OVERALL ANALYSIS:
The knock on one of the greatest QBs of all-time is the fact that most believe the colder it gets, the tougher it is for Manning to throw the football, a laughable criticism because it's such an obvious dart to throw and could be hurled at any signal caller.

Manning, however, is 8-11 in his career -- including 0-4 in the postseason -- when the temperature is below 40 degrees at kickoff.

Some simply believe Wilson and the Seahawks are better equipped to handle the elements because Seattle is a team which generally doesn't rely on airing it out even in pristine conditions. Meanwhile, while vertically challenged, Wilson possesses very large hands, measured at 10 1/4 inches, an attribute scouts are very big on these days because in theory, a larger hand allows you to handle the football properly in any conditions.

It's indisputable that shaky conditions do favor the running game and defense over all else. And it's Seattle which possesses Lynch and the game's No. 1- rated defensive unit.

Three days out, however the weather forecast for North Jersey keeps getting better and better, calling for a high of 48 degrees and a low of 25 with little wind, certainly not South Beach-type weather but also a long way off from the worst-case scenario.

Translation?

Stamp that legacy -- Manning and the Broncos win.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Broncos 24, Seahawks 20


01/30 12:48:26 ET