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JASON SHARPE
7 Unit Play Take #101 Seattle +2.5 over Denver (6:30pm est):
All season long the NFC was favored over the AFC in the Super Bowl "look-ahead lines" that you could bet here in Las Vegas. In fact you could even bet all of the possible Super Bowl match-ups the week BEFORE the conference championship games and all of them had Seattle FAVORED over Denver. So what happened? What changed in just one game?
My best advice to anyone betting on the NFL is to look for overreactions by the betting public and then bet the opposite of that. We have a prime example of that here with this Super Bowl game as the public fell in love with Peyton Manning and the Broncos even more so after their easy win over the New England Patriots. I think the biggest thing to come out of the conference championship weekend was the fact that the Patriots were clearly the worst of the four teams playing on that Sunday. Add that to the Broncos also faced arguably the worst of the 12 NFL playoff teams this year, going up against the San Diego Chargers in their first game of the post-season. It's been a very easy path to this game for Denver. On the Seattle side of things they were tested against Drew Brees and what was a very solid New Orleans Saints team and Seattle shut down the high flying Saints. Their next game was against one of the three best teams in the NFL this year, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers/Seahawks game had an entirely different feel to it than the Broncos/Patriots contest played earlier that day. It was clearly a big time battle between two heavyweights who were both throwing their best punches at each other all game long.
Seattle has been the elite team in the NFL all season long. They went 15-3 overall on the year and did so while playing in the much better NFC. Not only was their playoff path much tougher but they also beat a good Carolina team and did so on the road to start the season 12-7. They hammered San Francisco 29-3 at home also during the year. They lost on the road but covered the point spread, losing by a last second field goal to San Francisco in a huge revenge game for the 49ers. You can also add in a 34-7 beating over the Saints to the Seahawks regular season resume. Go up and down the Broncos schedule and you just don't see those type of signature wins like we see from the Seahawks this year. In fact I am not sure which victory for Denver during the regular season was their most impressive. Maybe a ten point win over the Chiefs? Look at the one big comparable game that these two teams played versus a good Colts team and with both games coming on the road. Denver was soundly beaten in Indianapolis by the Colts, as Indy led by 19 points in the 4th quarter in that game while Seattle nearly beat Indianapolis in what was a horrific back to back road spot earlier in the year for the Seahawks. It was a game Seattle was leading for most of the contest before falling just short late in that game.
I think it's a much better idea to take in all the information over the entire season than just the last game these two teams played but it's obvious that's what most folks are doing here. At the end of the day there is no doubt what Seattle has done this year has been much more impressive than what the Broncos have accomplished. You really have to wonder what the line in this game would have been if the Seahawks played New England in the championship game and Denver was forced to do battle with the physical 49ers instead. Something tells me the Super Bowl line would be at least Seattle minus three if that were the case.
With the number three being a key number in NFL betting, I highly advise to wait until you see a plus three on the Seahawks if you have a chance. This may not ever happen but if it does it will most likely be just before game time. Either way I don't think we will need those points at the end of the day. Take Seattle.
7 Unit Play Take #101 Seattle +2.5 over Denver (6:30pm est):
All season long the NFC was favored over the AFC in the Super Bowl "look-ahead lines" that you could bet here in Las Vegas. In fact you could even bet all of the possible Super Bowl match-ups the week BEFORE the conference championship games and all of them had Seattle FAVORED over Denver. So what happened? What changed in just one game?
My best advice to anyone betting on the NFL is to look for overreactions by the betting public and then bet the opposite of that. We have a prime example of that here with this Super Bowl game as the public fell in love with Peyton Manning and the Broncos even more so after their easy win over the New England Patriots. I think the biggest thing to come out of the conference championship weekend was the fact that the Patriots were clearly the worst of the four teams playing on that Sunday. Add that to the Broncos also faced arguably the worst of the 12 NFL playoff teams this year, going up against the San Diego Chargers in their first game of the post-season. It's been a very easy path to this game for Denver. On the Seattle side of things they were tested against Drew Brees and what was a very solid New Orleans Saints team and Seattle shut down the high flying Saints. Their next game was against one of the three best teams in the NFL this year, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers/Seahawks game had an entirely different feel to it than the Broncos/Patriots contest played earlier that day. It was clearly a big time battle between two heavyweights who were both throwing their best punches at each other all game long.
Seattle has been the elite team in the NFL all season long. They went 15-3 overall on the year and did so while playing in the much better NFC. Not only was their playoff path much tougher but they also beat a good Carolina team and did so on the road to start the season 12-7. They hammered San Francisco 29-3 at home also during the year. They lost on the road but covered the point spread, losing by a last second field goal to San Francisco in a huge revenge game for the 49ers. You can also add in a 34-7 beating over the Saints to the Seahawks regular season resume. Go up and down the Broncos schedule and you just don't see those type of signature wins like we see from the Seahawks this year. In fact I am not sure which victory for Denver during the regular season was their most impressive. Maybe a ten point win over the Chiefs? Look at the one big comparable game that these two teams played versus a good Colts team and with both games coming on the road. Denver was soundly beaten in Indianapolis by the Colts, as Indy led by 19 points in the 4th quarter in that game while Seattle nearly beat Indianapolis in what was a horrific back to back road spot earlier in the year for the Seahawks. It was a game Seattle was leading for most of the contest before falling just short late in that game.
I think it's a much better idea to take in all the information over the entire season than just the last game these two teams played but it's obvious that's what most folks are doing here. At the end of the day there is no doubt what Seattle has done this year has been much more impressive than what the Broncos have accomplished. You really have to wonder what the line in this game would have been if the Seahawks played New England in the championship game and Denver was forced to do battle with the physical 49ers instead. Something tells me the Super Bowl line would be at least Seattle minus three if that were the case.
With the number three being a key number in NFL betting, I highly advise to wait until you see a plus three on the Seahawks if you have a chance. This may not ever happen but if it does it will most likely be just before game time. Either way I don't think we will need those points at the end of the day. Take Seattle.
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