2-6-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve's Picks Pebble Beach Pro Am

SPENCER LEVIN - 85 to 1
AARON BADDELEY - 100 to 1
MATT JONES - 50 to
RUSSEL KNOX - 120 to 1
2 Unit DUSTIN JOHNSON -12.5 to 1

Head to Head
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Day favored to win at Pebble Beach
by Freddy Wander

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Tees Off: Thursday, February 6
Pebble Beach Resort – Pebble Beach, CA

Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds
Jason Day 10-to-1
Dustin Johnson 12-to-1
Phil Mickelson 15-to-1
Hunter Mahan 15-to-1
Jordan Spieth 20-to-1
Jimmy Walker 25-to-1
Brandt Snedeker 25-to-1
Chris Kirk 30-to-1
Graeme McDowell 30-to-1
Jim Furyk 30-to-1
Patrick Reed 30-to-1
Nick Watney 40-to-1
Ryan Palmer 40-to-1
Kevin Stadler 40-to-1
Pat Perez 40-to-1
Matt Jones 40-to-1
Jason Kokrak 50-to-1
Charley Hoffman 50-to-1
K.J. Choi 50-to-1
Kevin Na 50-to-1
Matt Every 50-to-1
Spencer Levin 60-to-1
Bryce Molder 60-to-1
Brendan Steele 60-to-1
Brendon Todd 60-to-1
10 golfers 80-to-1
8 golfers 100-to-1
5 golfers 125-to-1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 150-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 9-to-4

A star-studded cast of golfers heads to Pebble Beach Thursday to play in one of the most exciting tournaments of the season. Appropriately, some of the top golf celebrities have been victorious here with names like Tiger Woods, Davis Love III, Vijah Singh and Phil Mickelson topping the leaderboard since 2000. This course has a lot of room for scoring as evident by the victor scoring 15-under par or better in nine of the past 10 tournaments, including a tourney record aggregate score of 267 by winner Brandt Snedeker last season. Let’s take a look at some of the golfers in the field that could do very well this coming week.

Golfers to Watch

Dustin Johnson (12/1): Johnson is a multiple time winner at this tournament back in 2009 and 2010 while also finishing 5th in 2012. He did not play this tournament last season and has played in only three tournaments this year so far, but with outstanding results. In his three starts, Johnson has placed in the top-18 all three times, including a win at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions back in early November. He also placed sixth in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

Brandt Snedeker (25/1): Snedeker took home the trophy last year here with four rounds of 68 or better and says that he is 100 percent recovered from his knee injury suffered back in October. Snedeker fell apart at the Phoenix Open last week, shooting a 79 in the final round, which could have been due to fatigue from the injury. But with each passing week, he should be getting back to form and is due for a big performance.

Phil Mickelson (15/1): Mickelson is another player that is struggling with injuries but will be looking to be the second five-time winner at this tournament, joining Mark O’Meara. He placed 42nd in Scottsdale last week, another tournament where he has been exceptional in the past, and will need to increase his driving accuracy (54.1%, 146th on the tour) in order to compete.

Charley Hoffman (50/1): Although Hoffman has not placed better than 14th in his past five attempts at Pebble Beach, including two missed cuts, he has two top-9 finishes in his past three tournaments this season and is one of the best off the tee in the PGA. Hoffman is 10th in total driving (18) and 18th in driving distance (302.9) which could really give him some great opportunities at low scores this weekend.

Greg Chalmers (125/1): Chalmers' road to his 10th professional win is his ability to get out of the sand (73.7% sand saves, 2nd on Tour) while he also led the field in strokes gained by putting, -- a stat introduced in 2011 to better realize a player's efficiency on the greens -- at the Phoenix Open last weekend. Chalmers is an excellent longshot play for the coming week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
by Matt Fargo

Make it four-straight weeks that we were the bridesmaid as Graham DeLaet was our fourth straight runner up to open the season. The PGA Tour goes back to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am this week. Pebble Beach Golf Links is one of three host courses for the event along with Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. A traditional playing cut of the top 60 and ties will be made after 54 holes on Saturday giving players one extra day to make a move.

Pebble Beach is one of the players favorite stops on tour and for good reason. But it comes with a price. Hitting greens is essential to provide birdie opportunities and scoring on the par fives is also crucial. Experience has played a big role in this event for a good track record will take precedence over those who have not played much or played well here in the past. Last year was just the third time in eight years at Pebble Beach that the average score was under par and was the most under par in 16 years.
The defending champion is Brandt Snedeker (+2,500) who won by two shots over Chris Kirk thanks to a final round 65. Defending his title will not be easy as he has been playing below average to start the season as his best finish is a T58 over his last three starts. He missed the cut here in 2011 after a T21 in 2010, a T70 in 2009, a T58 in 2008 and a T36 in 2007.

There are some big names at the top of the odds list and one of those is Hunter Mahan (+1,500). After a T47 at the Farmers, his first event of the season, he followed that up with a T4 last week in Phoenix. His last three finishes at the AT&T were a T16, T15 and a solo second so he definitely likes it around here now after a slow start to his career in this event. Expect a big year as he aims to get back to the Ryder Cup.

Jimmy Walker (+2,500) took last week off after missing the cut at the Farmers so he should be refreshed and ready to continue his breakout season. He has won twice, once in the fall at the Frys.com and once in 2014 at the Sony. He missed the cut twice in his first three starts here but he has finished in the top ten in each of the last three years including a T3 in 2013.

Chris Kirk (+3,000) has been as solid as they come to open the season as he is ranked third in the FedEx Cup Standings. He won the McGladrey Classic back in November and then posted a solo second at the Sony. He is coming off a 76th place finish last week after an opening round 65 but finished solo second here last year. He is fourth on tour in birdies or better on par fives and that is a big asset to have here.

Graeme McDowell (+3,000) will be making his first official start since November when he finished third in the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions. While a layoff like that can be tough on some, I don't think it will be much of a factor here. He won the U.S. Open here in 2010 and this year, he will be playing along side his father and he says he is "buzzed" to get the season under way here.

For this week's long shot, we go with Aaron Baddeley (+8,000). He clearly is not off to a great start this year as his T48 last week was his best finish in three 2014 starts. But slow starts have been the norm for him in the past, until he gets here. He finished T6 in 2011, solo fourth in 2012 and T12 last year and those were all after average finishes at the WM. He could be in line for his first win since 2011 at the Northern Trust.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
All for 1 Unit

Hunter Mahan (+1,500)

Jimmy Walker (+2,500)

Chris Kirk (+3,000)

Graeme McDowell (+3,000)

Aaron Baddeley (+8,000)

2014 Record to date after 4 events: -20 Units
Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open -5 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bulls scorelines trending Under out West

The Chicago Bulls visit the Golden State Warriors for the fifth of a six-game road trip Thursday evening, and they've done a good job at appeasing Under bettors.

They are 1-3 O/U through the first four games of the roadie and their 101-92 win in Phoenix just crept over the closing total of 192.5 Tuesday.

The total for Thursday's tilt with the Warriors opened at 191.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Road team hot in Blues-Bruins matchups

If you're considering a road team in the NHL Thursday, take a look at the Boston Bruins.

The B's are in St. Louis to face the Blues and the road team has won seven-straight games in their meetings.

The Blues opened as -137 faves but have come down to the current price of -130.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cleveland State moves to head of the class

SB Nation’s Thomas Todd took a look at the unheralded Horizon League – which no longer has NCAA Tournament darling Butler – and found three teams worth noting: conference leader Green Bay, Cleveland State and Valparaiso.

For bettors, though, Cleveland State is the class of the conference. The Vikings have won four straight and five of six SU and ATS, and they now lead our ATS rankings with a stout 15-5-1 mark.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

IUPU-Ft. Wayne among best bets in the nation

Savvy bettors know that often times, there’s more value in the mid- and low-majors.

Among them is IUPU-Ft. Wayne which leads the Summit League with an 18-6 SU mark. The Mastodons are anything but extinct at the betting window, rating fifth in the nation with a 13-5-2 ATS mark. And they’re solid in the home and away jerseys, going 7-2 ATS as hosts and 6-3 ATS on the road, with a pair of neutral-site pushes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Calgary won five of its last six games.
-- Rangers won last four games, outscoring opponents 18-6. Edmonton won four of its last five games.
-- Avalanche won four of their last five games. Philly won three of last four.
-- Jets won eight of their last ten games.
-- Maple Leafs won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Bruins won six of their last seven games. Blues won 13 of last 19 games.
-- Minnesota won its last four home games, allowing five goals.
-- Blue Jackets won last three games, allowing five goals.

Cold teams
-- Islanders lost five of their last six games.
-- Washington lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Vancouver lost its last five games, scoring eight goals. Montreal lost four of its last six home games.
-- Sabres lost last three games, outscored 15-4. Ottawa lost six of last ten games.
-- Lightning lost three of their last four games.
-- Red Wings lost last four road games, scoring five goals. Florida lost three of its last four games overall.
-- Predators lost three of their last four road games.
-- Los Angeles lost four in row, nine of last ten games.

Totals
-- Last three Islander games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Edmonton's last five road games.
-- Five of last six Colorado games went over total.
-- Four of last five Washington games went over.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Montreal games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Buffalo games.
-- Eight of last ten Toronto games went over total.
-- Florida's last three home games stayed under total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Boston-St Louis games.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Nashville games.
-- Seven of last ten Columbus games went over total.

Series records
-- Islanders won five of their last six games with Calgary.
-- Rangers are 2-3 in their last five games with Edmonton.
-- Avalanche won five of last seven games with Philly.
-- Jets lost their last five games with Washington.
-- Canadiens won four of last five games with Vancouver.
-- Senators won eight of last eleven games with Buffalo.
-- Lightning lost six of last eight games with Toronto.
-- Panthers won three of last four games with Detroit.
-- Road team won last six Boston-St Louis games.
-- Predators lost four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Kings won three of last four games with Columbus.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Spurs won last three games by 2-7-7; they won at Washington in two OTs last night.

Cold Teams
-- Nets lost three of their last four games.
-- Bulls lost four of their last seven games. Golden State is 5-7 since its 10-game winning streak ended.

Series records
-- Spurs won six in row, nine of last ten games with Brooklyn.
-- Bulls lost three of last four visits to Oakland, losing by 17-11-8.

Totals
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Brooklyn games.
-- Five of last six Chicago games stayed under.

Back to backs
-- Spurs are 6-2 vs spread on road if they played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6


COLLEGE KEY RELEASE: LA-MONROE over Texas State (Thurs) RATING: 3


NCAA SCORES
(7:00) VA COMMONWEALTH 72 - Rhode Island 64 (CBSC)
(7:00) CINCINNATI 69 - Connecticut 60 (ESPN2)
(7:00) Cleveland State 78 - OAKLAND 71
(7:00) Uab 64 - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 63
(7:00) Middle Tennessee State 72 - FLORIDA ATLANTIC 69
(7:00) GEORGIA 65 - Lsu 61 (ESPN)
(7:00) OLD DOMINION 67 - Texas-San Antonio 52
(8:00) LOYOLA-CHICAGO 59 - Bradley 57
(8:00) La-Monroe 62 - TEXAS STATE 56
(8:00) Georgia State 78 - ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 75
(8:00) SMU 79 - Temple 62 (ESPNN)
(8:30) TROY 59 - South Alabama 56
(8:30) TEXAS-ARLINGTON 74 - La-Lafayette 73
(9:00) LOUISIANA TECH 85 - Tulsa 68 (CBSC)
(9:00) Utep 67 - EAST CAROLINA 64 (FOX 1)
(9:00) UTAH 76 - Washington 62
(9:00) ARIZONA 79 - Oregon 61 (ESPN)
(9:00) MICHIGAN STATE 82 - Penn State 60 (ESPN2)
(10:00) CAL-DAVIS 73 - Cal-Northridge 72
(10:00) PEPPERDINE 70 - Pacific 69
(10:00) CAL-IRVINE 61 - Long Beach State 57
(10:00) CAL-RIVERSIDE 74 - Cal-Fullerton 68
(10:00) SAN DIEGO 66 - San Francisco 61
(11:00) Saint Marys 69 - LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 55
(11:00) BYU 88 - Santa Clara 58
(11:00) ARIZONA STATE 75 - Oregon State 63 (FOX 1)
(12:00) HAWAII 83 - Cal-Santa Barbara 74


BEST BETS: CLEVELAND STATE, LA-MONROE, LOUISIANA TECH, UTAH,
SAINT MARYS, ARIZONA STATE


THURSDAY NBA SCORES
(8:00) San Antonio Spurs 108 - BROOKLYN 97 (TNT)
(10:35) GOLDEN STATE 108 - Chicago Bulls 99 (TNT)

BEST BET: SAN ANTONIO (4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Detroit Red Wings -108 over Florida
(System Record: 65-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 65-49-1

Basketball Crusher
San Diego -2 over San Francisco
(System Record: 44-5, lost last game)
Overall Record: 44-54-2

Soccer Crusher
Penapolense + Sao Bernardo UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 520-18, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 520-448-75

Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today...


Hockey
St Louis Blues -130 over Boston
Los Angeles Kings -145 over Columbus
Minnesota Wild -140 over Nashville


Basketball
Long Beach State +5 over UC Irvine
Portland State +10 over Montana
North Texas -1 over Rice

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play THURS GEORGIA + 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Winnipeg +115

Blue Jackets +135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, February 6

Cincinnati won its last 14 games; they're 10-0 in AAC, 3-2 as favorite at home- they won last two games by total of 8 points. Bearcats are 4-3 in its last seven games with UConn, but Huskies won three of last four in this gym. UConn won five of last six games since getting swept down in Texas, winning last two road games, at Memphis/Rutgers. AAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2 vs spread.

Home side won seven of last eight LSU-Georgia games, with LSU 5-2 in last seven, but losers in last two visits to Athens by 20-9 points. Dawgs lost last three games but are 3-1 at home in SEC, with only loss by 5 to Vandy- home teams are 6-2 vs spread in their SEC games. LSU lost its only two SEC road games, by 14 at Ole Miss, 2 at Alabama. SEC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 10-3-1 vs spread.

Georgia State (-11.5) waxed Ark-Little Rock 99-73 at home Jan 18, with Panthers making 15-34 from arc in game they led 59-29 at half. State is 9-0 in Sun Belt, 4-0 as road favorite, winning away games by 10-23-7-8 points- this is their third game in six nights. UALR won three of its last four games, is 3-1 at home in league, with only loss by 13 to Troy. Sun Belt home underdogs are 3-7 against the spread.

Louisiana Tech is 7-2 in C-USA, 4-0 as home favorites, winning home games by 20-34-20-21 points; Bulldogs are holding foes to 22.6% from arc, #1 in C-USA. First road game in 19 days for Tulsa team that won three of last four games- they split first two conference road games, losing by 4 at Charlotte, winning at Marshall. C-USA home favorites of more than 8 points are 14-5 vs spread.

Utah is 3-6 in Pac-12, but only one of six losses was by more than four points; they're 3-1 at home in Pac-12, winning by 11-18-5 points. Utes (+2.5) lost 59-57 at Washington Jan 8; Utah was 1-15 from arc, in game where both teams shot 52%+ inside arc. Washington lost its last four at home by 9-26-12-5 points; they're 2-2 as road underdogs. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 10-7 vs spread.

Oregon beat Arizona last two years, by 2-4 points; they're 5-2 against spread in last seven visits to Tucson, but are 2-6 in last eight games, 2-3 on road, with losses by 9-8-4 points. Arizona lost first game of season at Cal Saturday and lost big man Ashley for season; they're 2-3 as home favorites, winning by 35-9-23-12-9 points. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 9-7 vs spread.

Cal-Irvine (-1.5) beat Long Beach 46-44 Jan 9, in brickfest where Irvine scored only 3 points in last 10:00 of game, and both teams shot 38% or less inside arc. UCI won last three series games by 3-7-2 points; they're 1-2 as home favorites, winning by 18-6 points, losing to Hawai'i in OT. Big West home favorites of 7 or less points are 2-6 vs spread. 49ers are on 4-game win streak, winning last two on road, at Cal Poly/Hawai'i.

San Francisco won seven of last eight games with San Diego, winning its last four visits here by 2-10-11-13 points. Dons (-7) won 64-62 in first meeting at home Jan 18, going 6-11 from arc, only 12-22 on line. Toreros covered five of last six games (3-3 SU); they're 2-2 at home, winning by 7-18 points, losing to Pepperdine/Pacific. WCC home favorites of 3 or less points are 5-1 vs spread. Dons are 2-2 as WCC road dogs.

St Mary's (-10) crushed LMU 89-61 at home Jan 25; they've won three in row, 14 of last 15 vs Lions, winning last seven visits here, with six of seven wins by 11+ points. WCC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 2-3 vs spread. Gaels lost three of last four road games- favorites covered four of their five road games. LMU lost eight of last nine games, after its 2-0 WCC start; they lost last two home games, by 14-10 points.

Arizona State won three in row, nine of last ten games vs Oregon State, winning last five in Tempe by 10+ points; Sun Devils won last three at home by 19-4-21 points; they're 3-2 as Pac-12 favorites. Beavers won three of last four games, are 1-2 as road underdogs, losing road games by 6-11-6 points, with only win at Washington State. Pac-12 home faves of 8 or less points are 9-8 against the spread.

Belmont lost 79-74 at Murray State LY, then beat Racers 70-68 in OT in OVC tourney; Bruins got upset at Tennessee Tech last game, are 1-3 as OVC home favorite, winning home games by 11-2-14-3 points. OVC home favorites of 8 or less points are 14-12 vs spread. Murray is 8-1 in OVC, with only loss by 7 at Edwardsville; they won SU at EKU in its only game as conference underdog.

Fort Wayne (-1.5) beat South Dakota State 82-75 at home Jan 11, ending 7-game series skid; Mastodons shot 65% inside arc, survived State's 10 of 22 shooting from arc. Fort Wayne lost last six visits here, last three all by 26+ points- they're 6-1 in Summit, winning at Denver, losing by 14 at South Dakota. Summit League home favorites of 7 or less points are 6-3. Jackrabbits lost last two home games, to Omaha/North Dakota St.

Weber State (-2) won 72-60 at North Dakota Jan 11, making 9-17 from arc; they're 4-0 vs UND in Big Sky play, including 76-74 win in league tourney LY. Wildcats are 2-4 as home favorites, four of six home wins by 7 or less points. North Dakota won/covered four of its last six five games, is 2-2 on road, losing by 13 at Montana, 2 at Portland State. Big Sky home favorites of 9 or less points are 13-10-1 vs spread.