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Bryan Leonard | MLB RunLine Sun, 04/13/14 - 4:10 PM
triple-dime bet 979 DET -1.5 (+120) Hilton vs 980 SDP
Analysis:
979 Detroit at San Diego
The Tigers and Padres wrap up their weekend interleague set with a Sunday matinee game on the west coast between Max Scherzer and Tyson Ross. Scherzer's started his contract year off with a bang, allowing just two runs and 14 baserunners over 15 innings with 15 strikeouts. He's faced two quality lineups with the Royals and the Dodgers, even though the Royals have had their struggles in the early season. Now he draws a Padres lineup that has yet to find its stride and is unlikely to do so against Scherzer.
The Padres entered action on Saturday night with the sixth-highest chase rate in all of baseball. As a result, they were tied for the third-highest swing and miss percentage. The biggest flaw in Scherzer's profile is the occasional home run, which Petco Park, even during the day, should help suppress. Not to mention, the Padres entered play on Saturday with just five home runs as a team. This lineup is a great matchup for Scherzer.
On the other side, this matchup looks really bad for Tyson Ross. Ross *only* allowed two earned runs against the Indians, but he allowed seven overall and walked five in 5.1 innings of work. The most concerning things weren't his stats, but rather the PITCHf/x data after the start. Ross, who has been injured a lot in his MLB career, is showing a serious drop in velocity. His average fastball velocity values are even lower than his early 2013 values when he spent time on the disabled list with shoulder discomfort. Ross is only throwing 44 percent first-pitch strikes through two starts and isn't getting swings and misses.
Also of interest, Ross varied his release point throughout the start against the Indians. Not only did this affect his control, which is usually his strong suit, but it likely altered his mechanics enough to hurt his velocity. Whether Ross is hurt or is experimenting, the Tigers aren't exactly the lineup to be facing under suboptimal conditions. His velocity also trailed off towards the end of his start. All of these are discouraging signs for his health and effectiveness.
With Scherzer going for the Tigers against an offense that's simply not performing and Ross going against a Tigers lineup that is one of the better ones in baseball, this looks like a very bad spot for the Padres and a spot where they could take a real beating.
PLAY: DETROIT -1.5
triple-dime bet 979 DET -1.5 (+120) Hilton vs 980 SDP
Analysis:
979 Detroit at San Diego
The Tigers and Padres wrap up their weekend interleague set with a Sunday matinee game on the west coast between Max Scherzer and Tyson Ross. Scherzer's started his contract year off with a bang, allowing just two runs and 14 baserunners over 15 innings with 15 strikeouts. He's faced two quality lineups with the Royals and the Dodgers, even though the Royals have had their struggles in the early season. Now he draws a Padres lineup that has yet to find its stride and is unlikely to do so against Scherzer.
The Padres entered action on Saturday night with the sixth-highest chase rate in all of baseball. As a result, they were tied for the third-highest swing and miss percentage. The biggest flaw in Scherzer's profile is the occasional home run, which Petco Park, even during the day, should help suppress. Not to mention, the Padres entered play on Saturday with just five home runs as a team. This lineup is a great matchup for Scherzer.
On the other side, this matchup looks really bad for Tyson Ross. Ross *only* allowed two earned runs against the Indians, but he allowed seven overall and walked five in 5.1 innings of work. The most concerning things weren't his stats, but rather the PITCHf/x data after the start. Ross, who has been injured a lot in his MLB career, is showing a serious drop in velocity. His average fastball velocity values are even lower than his early 2013 values when he spent time on the disabled list with shoulder discomfort. Ross is only throwing 44 percent first-pitch strikes through two starts and isn't getting swings and misses.
Also of interest, Ross varied his release point throughout the start against the Indians. Not only did this affect his control, which is usually his strong suit, but it likely altered his mechanics enough to hurt his velocity. Whether Ross is hurt or is experimenting, the Tigers aren't exactly the lineup to be facing under suboptimal conditions. His velocity also trailed off towards the end of his start. All of these are discouraging signs for his health and effectiveness.
With Scherzer going for the Tigers against an offense that's simply not performing and Ross going against a Tigers lineup that is one of the better ones in baseball, this looks like a very bad spot for the Padres and a spot where they could take a real beating.
PLAY: DETROIT -1.5
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