5-24-14

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Today's NBA Picks

Indiana at Miami

The Pacers head to Miami for Game 3 and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Indiana is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 24 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (5/23)

Game 509-510: Indiana at Miami (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 121.673; Miami 126.394 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 187 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 182 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7); Over

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/24/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 5/24/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Eastern Conference Finals

#509 INDIANA @ #510 MIAMI
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Heat -7, Total: 182.5) - The Indiana Pacers have enough to worry about against the Miami Heat without trying to figure out how to replace an All-Star. The Pacers hope to have forward Paul George available when they visit the Heat for Game #3 of the Eastern Conference finals on Saturday evening. George was diagnosed with a concussion after taking a knee to the head on Tuesday and will need to pass NBA-mandated tests before he is eligible to return to action.

George is off to a rough start offensively in the series after being held to 14 points on 4-of-16 shooting in Game #2 but is a key part of the defensive effort against LeBron James. George remained in the game after catching Dwyane Wade’s knee on the back of his head but later said he “blacked out” following the hit and was diagnosed with the concussion on Wednesday morning due to the brief loss of consciousness. Any deterioration in the skills of George is a bad sign for the Pacers, who allowed James and Wade to combine for 22 points in the fourth quarter as the Heat came from behind to take Game 2 and even the series.

•ABOUT THE PACERS (65-32 SU, 46-50-1 ATS): Indiana put together its best offensive performance of the postseason in dominating Game #1, leading wire-to-wire en route to a 107-96 victory. The Pacers led for most of the contest in Game #2 but had a much more difficult time scoring and ended up dropping an 87-83 decision. “It’s a split,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “We’ll respond. We’ll look at the tape, make our adjustments and come back for Game #3.” George has three full days off to go through the concussion protocol, which includes physical exertion on a stationary bike, jogging, agility work and non-contact team drills, each of which must be completed symptom-free before moving onto the next.

•ABOUT THE HEAT (63-30 SU, 44-47-2 ATS): James and Wade put their stamp on the series in the fourth quarter of Game #2, scoring or assisting on every point scored and never panicking when Miami got down. After allowing the Pacers to go off at 51.5 percent from the field in Game #1, the Heat pushed that number down to 40 percent in Game #2. That defense gave James and Wade enough time to find their groove when the fourth quarter rolled around. “However the game presents itself, I just try to take advantage,” James told reporters. “I needed to do something in the fourth. I was able to get some good looks for guys in the third quarter but I needed to make a few buckets in the fourth quarter and I was able to come through for us."

•PREGAME NOTES: The Heat have won the last four meetings in their building, going back to the 2013 East finals.... Pacers G Lance Stephenson is averaging 21 points on 62.1 percent shooting, 7.5 assists and five rebounds in the series.... Indiana is 5-0 in the postseason following a loss.... Miami is 51-35 against the spread (59.3%) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Pacers are 18-33 versus the spread (35.2%) versus teams who make 6 or more three-point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections.(Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the spread 528 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 436 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 697 times, while INDIANA won 281 times. In 1000 simulated games, 512 games went under the total, while 488 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the first half line 507 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 493 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 498 games went under first half total, while 468 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 46-39 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--INDIANA is 46-41 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--47 of 87 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--INDIANA is 47-39 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--47 of 86 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Miami.
--Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Pacers are 0-5 ATS L5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Under is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

--Heat are 5-1 ATS L6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games following a S.U. win.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Favorites versus the money line (MIAMI) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher, after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less.
(125-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.7%, +59.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -234.1
The average score in these games was: Team 97.1, Opponent 90 (Average point differential = +7.1)

The situation's record this season is: (13-4, +3.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (84-20, +34.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (702-297, -8.8 units).

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Game of the Day: Pacers at Heat

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-6.5, 183)

Series tied 1-1.

The Indiana Pacers have enough to worry about against the Miami Heat without trying to figure out how to replace an All-Star. The Pacers hope to have forward Paul George available when they visit the Heat for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals on Saturday. George was diagnosed with a concussion after taking a knee to the head on Tuesday and will need to pass NBA-mandated tests before he is eligible to return to action.

George is off to a rough start offensively in the series after being held to 14 points on 4-of-16 shooting in Game 2 but is a key part of the defensive effort against LeBron James. George remained in the game after catching Dwyane Wade’s knee on the back of his head but later said he “blacked out” following the hit and was diagnosed with the concussion on Wednesday morning due to the brief loss of consciousness. Any deterioration in the skills of George is a bad sign for the Pacers, who allowed James and Wade to combine for 22 points in the fourth quarter as the Heat came from behind to take Game 2 and even the series.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Miami opened -6.5 and jumped as high as -7.5 with news that Pacers forward George Paul could sit out with a concussion. The line is being dealt -7 at most books. The total opened 182.5 and has climbed to 183.

INJURY REPORT: Pacers - P. George (Ques/Concussion), D. West (Prob/Eye)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We are guessing that Paul George will start when we opened Miami -7. If George doesn’t get clearance to play, expect the line to go up to Heat -9 or -9.5." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.ag.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "In Game 2, Miami broke a trend that had seen the home team win 13 of the previous 15 matchups between the two teams. Oddsmakers expect the Heat to hold serve on home court in Game 3, but are they not giving the Pacers enough respect?" - Covers Experts' Brian Powers

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana put together its best offensive performance of the postseason in dominating Game 1, leading wire-to-wire en route to a 107-96 victory. The Pacers led for most of the contest in Game 2 but had a much more difficult time scoring and ended up dropping an 87-83 decision. “It’s a split,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “We’ll respond. We’ll look at the tape, make our adjustments and come back for Game 3.” George has three full days off to go through the concussion protocol, which includes physical exertion on a stationary bike, jogging, agility work and non-contact team drills, each of which must be completed symptom-free before moving onto the next.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James and Wade put their stamp on the series in the fourth quarter of Game 2, scoring or assisting on every point scored and never panicking when Miami got down. After allowing the Pacers to go off at 51.5 percent from the field in Game 1, the Heat pushed that number down to 40 percent in Game 2. That defense gave James and Wade enough time to find their groove when the fourth quarter rolled around. “However the game presents itself, I just try to take advantage,” James told reporters. “I needed to do something in the fourth. I was able to get some good looks for guys in the third quarter but I needed to make a few buckets in the fourth quarter and I was able to come through for us."

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Miami.
* Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
* Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Heat's last five home games

COVERS CONSENSUS: 55 percent of bets are on Pacers +6.5 while 70 percent of total wagers are on Over 183 points.

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Paul worth as many as four points to Pacers-Heat Game 3 spread
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER

The Indiana Pacers are hoping one more day will give them a definitive answer when it comes to the status of All-Star forward George Paul for Game 3 of the NBA Eastern Conference finals Saturday.

Paul suffered a concussion after being kneed in the head versus the Miami Heat in Game 2 Tuesday and, according to the Indy Star, is a gameday decision for Saturday.

Oddsmakers set Indiana as a 7-point underdog for Game 3, expecting Paul to play. However, those odds could dramatically swing if he is not cleared for action.

“We are guessing that Paul George will start when we opened Miami -7,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag tells Covers. “If George doesn’t get clearance to play, expect the line to go up to Heat -9 or -9.5.”

In Las Vegas, the line may jump to Miami -8.5 if Paul is ruled out, according to Ed Salmons, assistant manager of the LVH Superbook. And some online books are setting Paul's worth at as many as four points to the Pacers' spread.

"We'd go straight to (Miami) -10.5 if he was scratched," Stewart tells Covers. "He's their best offensive player and their best perimeter defender. While his numbers are a bit down so far in the first two games versus the Heat, that's because he's guarding LeBron (James)."

Paul, who missed only two games this season (both for rest at the end of the schedule), walked through a light practice Thursday but avoided contact drills and just shot around. According to Forbes Magazine, if he were to suit up Saturday in South Beach, it would be the fastest time any player has recovered from a concussion this season – with just four days between time of injury and return.

Paul is not only a major asset on offense, leading Indiana with 21.7 points per game in the regular season and putting up 21.5 points per playoff game, but is also the team’s top defender and has been assigned to stopping – or at least slowing down - LeBron James.

James averaged 28.7 points in four games versus Indiana this regular season but just 23.5 in the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals, shooting 56 percent from the field (20 for 36) with seven turnovers. He’s averaging 28.8 points per game in the postseason heading into Game 3.

"Check out LeBron's numbers offensively, they're way down," says Stewart. "LeBron is like 1 of 12 from 3-point ranger, again that's all Paul. You take him out of the lineup, and the Pacers are lost on both sides of the court."

The total for Saturday’s Game 3 in Miami opened 182.5 and has jumped to 183 points. The Pacers and Heat have split the Over/Under in the first two games of this series and have compiled a 3-3 O/U record in their six meetings this season.

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Pacers – Heat #3 – The Game Inside the Game
By DAVID MALINSKY

There was an unusual flow for Game #2 in Indianapolis even before the ball was tossed into the air for tipoff; a setting that seemingly called for Miami money did not turn out that way. And on the court the series dynamic changed when something old became new again, and some “wild cards” were introduced.

First the money. Most key precincts opened Miami -2.5, anticipating Zig Zag play to the Heat, with a significant share of the market likely to land on LeBron James & Co., after they had won their previous 10 playoff games when off of a loss, going 9-1 ATS in the process. There were indeed a few square shops that went to -3 early in the day. But by game-time there had been more Indiana backing in the total marketplace, with -2 as the closer. That was intriguing to see, given how erratic the Pacers had been throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs, and does raise some adjustment questions going forward, in terms of public perception of Miami. You will see at the end of this take how that may be influencing the pricing for Game #3.

Then it was time to play, and for a long stretch it appeared that the Indiana money might have been correct – the Pacers were again relaxed and confident, and while they were not shooting anywhere near as well as in Game #1, with 6:50 remaining they came out of a time-out up 73-69 and in possession of the ball. But leading up to that stoppage was something that did not seem all that major at the time – Dwayne Wade’s knee hitting Paul George in the head – yet may have been the biggest play of the series.

The game turned quickly. From that moment until the 2:00 mark Indiana scored once, a Roy Hibbert jump hook, while the James/Wade duo took control for the Heat, scoring all of the points in a 13-2 run. Those two did not just dominate that stretch, but controlled the flow of the 4th quarter – they combined for 22 points, and the only other Miami points came on a triple from Norris Cole, which was assisted by James.

So now the takeaways:

--Wade looked as good as he has in quite some time. It was not just what the stat line will show – 23 points on 10-16 shooting, five rebounds and five assists – but the fact that he was so aggressive and confident with the ball. He attacked without any hesitation, and was 5-5 in the 4th quarter, making it 11-12 the final stanza for the series. Wade’s minutes were managed well by Erik Spoelstra during the regular season, never topping 40, and could it be that missing nine straight games late in the schedule served to get him fresh again? Over his last three games it has been 78 points in 99:57 of court time, and when there is that kind of quickness in his step, the Heat ceiling is raised.

--The Miami wild card was the play of Cole and Chris Anderson. They were only used for 31:18 in the opener, with Anderson being effective but Cole going 0-3. In Game #2 it was 55:02 and both played well, Anderson contributing 12 rebounds and Cole 11 points, the former leading to a +25 when he was on the court, while for Cole it was +14. Mario Chalmers left with 4:06 remaining in the 3rd quarter and was not seen again; Shane Battier played sparingly, the last at 9:17; and except for offense/defense substitutions of Ray Allen for Anderson in the final minute, Spoelstra stayed with the group that was working down the stretch. The question now becomes how early he goes to that rotation on Saturday.

--The Indiana wild card was the biggest of all, the concussion suffered by George. Over the final 6:50 he was 1-2 from the FT line with a turnover, and struggled defensively. How much of that flow, both his personal inactivity and the Pacer team demise, was a result of him being out of focus? That answer matters in breaking down Game #2 properly, and then becomes a crucial factor heading to Saturday. In the playoffs Indiana is +64 with him on the court and -27 when he has been on the sidelines, and the Pacers have scored at a 93.8 “per 48” rate with him, as opposed to 80.0 without.

Now on to Saturday. So far the markets are of a “George plays” mentality, with Miami at -6.5 in the key stores late Friday afternoon (you’ll see 8.5’s quickly if he is scratched). Consider that adjustment for the change in venues. The call is only for a 4.5-point valuation of the swing, one that is far from the historical parameters. Over the last 10 years the court change for Game #3 of a Conference Finals has been an average of 8.8 points, with no game adjusted less than 5.5.

Let this sink in for a moment. On May 9 Indiana was +5 at Washington, and on May 15 the Pacers were +4.5 on that same court. It shows how fickle the current market is for these playoffs, and provides some real food for thought.

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2Halves2Win (Down 2.35u's in the NBA playoffs thus far.....)


1* GAME: Pacers-Heat o183 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TDB (TBDu)
2* GAME: Pacers +6.5 (-110: Risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units) - TDB (TBDu)

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Sports Investors USA
Pacers/Heat Over 182 2x
pacers +7. 2x

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Philly Ross

UFC
(1*) Parlay 3 matches

Lawler,Henderson,Barao (Get henderson at this great price now before it lowers)

Also straight bets (1*) on Lawler and Barao

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Power Play Wins

Our money management plan is very simple:
We play each Power Play at equal unit value.

Sport: MLB
Detroit Tigers (-175)
Pitcher: Porcello
Game time: 1:00:00 PM (PST)

Sport: MLB
Atlanta Braves (-140)
Pitcher: Minor
Game time: 1:00:00 PM (PST)

Sport: NBA
Indiana Pacers (+7)
Game time: 5:30:00 PM (PST)

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Sat Braves -135

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Brewers/Marlins over 8

Nationals/Pirates over 6.5

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Today's MLB Picks

St. Louis at Cincinnati

The Reds (22-24) look to follow up their 5-3 win over St. Louis last night as they face a Cardinals team that is 2-8 in Jaime Garcia's last 10 road starts against a team with a losing record. Cincinnati is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 24 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia (3:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 16.181; Philadelphia (Buchanan) 14.551 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Under

Game 903-904: Colorado at Atlanta (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 15.783; Atlanta (Minor) 14.991 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+125); Over

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Miami (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.041; Miami (Turner) 16.185 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Miami (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-110); Under

Game 907-908: Arizona at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 15.177; NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.098 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 909-910: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 14.274; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 15.879 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under

Game 911-912: Washington at Pittsburgh (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.571; Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.055 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Under

Game 913-914: Chicago Cubs at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 14.883; San Diego (Buckner) 15.884 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-115); Over

Game 915-916: Oakland at Toronto (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Chavez) 15.067; Toronto (Dickey) 16.123 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Under

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nuno) 15.737; White Sox (Danks) 14.037 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Under

Game 919-920: Texas at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Martinez) 15.819; Detroit (Porcello) 14.946 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 9 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+155); Over

Game 921-922: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 15.819; Tampa Bay (Price) 14.733 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+120); Over

Game 923-924: Cleveland at Baltimore (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 14.883; Baltimore (Jimenez) 15.736 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Under

Game 925-926: Kansas City at LA Angels (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 16.759; LA Angels (Shoemaker) 15.501 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115); Under

Game 927-928: Houston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.961; Seattle (Maurer) 13.962 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 7 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-110); Over

Game 929-930: Minnesota at San Francisco (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 15.847; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.928 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

Chicago at Los Angeles

The Blackhawks look to bounce back from their 6-2 loss in Game 2 as they head to LA tonight where they are 7-2 in their last 9 games versus the Kings. Chicago is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+110). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 24 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 11-12: Chicago at Los Angeles (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.875; Los Angeles 11.776 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+110); Over

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Chicago

The Sky play host to an Atlanta team that is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games. Chicago is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 24 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Seattle at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 104.107; Washington 113.333 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 9; 148 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 143 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: New York at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.131; Minnesota 121.715 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 148 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 152 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (+7 1/2); Under

Game 655-656: Atlanta at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.914; Chicago 110.945 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 147 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 153 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1 1/2); Under