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Spurs-Heat Game 4: The game inside the game
By DAVID MALINSKY
The degree by which San Antonio dominated Game #3 would have been difficult to project, with the opening salvo among the best offensive basketball ever played in the NBA Finals. But the manner in which the Spurs controlled play should not have come as a surprise. So the best way to begin building a handicap for Game #4 is to take a couple of steps back.
When it was time to project Game #2 on this page there was a breakdown of how difficult the opener was to digest, because of the absence of LeBron James down the stretch. But there was a clear reality when he was on the court, and this was the key takeaway in terms of setting the tone for viewing the ensuing matchup -
“This series will turn on the efficiency and passing of the San Antonio offense vs. the activity of the Miami defense in the passing lanes.”
That is exactly what Game #3 was about, after Gregg Popovich made an adjustment and put Boris Diaw into the starting lineup. The Spurs move the ball better than any team in the NBA, with that being a major part of their success at a time in which unimaginative offenses, relying on dribbling and pick-and-rolls, are the vogue. And as fast as they move it with their usual starting lineup, when Diaw replaces Splitter, which they can do against a team like Miami that lacks a pivot threat on offense, the spacing and pace become even more dynamic. That offense exploded for 41 points in the first quarter, the most in a Finals game since 1967, and of the 13 made FG’s, there were nine assists. There could have been even more assists, but Miami’s befuddled defense committed four shooting fouls in the period.
Yes, the shooting percentage for San Antonio, which opened 19-21, will look like a statistical outlier. But a focus point that has been talked about here during the playoffs, and will roll on with us through the future, is how much those percentages are shaped by the quality of the shot. The Spurs were getting excellent looks, with the Heat rotations consistently a step slow. They only managed eight steals, after getting 14 in the opener, and when they do not impact the passing lanes their defense can be had around the basket, without the presence of a shot blocker (only one of the 64 San Antonio attempts got swatted away).
As for Diaw, his impact goes far beyond what the traditional statistics measure. He had nine points, five rebounds and three assists in 37:17, which could elicit yawns. But the fact that only James and Kawhi Leonard played more minutes shows his significance, and since the start of the Oklahoma City series his +/- is up to +71. Pro-rate it to 48:00, and they have been beating two outstanding teams by 13.0 points per game when he is on the floor. His presence particularly helped to create space for Leonard, who looked remarkably confident in knocking down 10-13 shots, and carried that confidence boost to the other end of the court for solid defense on James.
The headache now for Erik Spoelstra is finding a way for his defense to be able to compete. But it is not just about defense. So let’s take a step back again to this page in the projecting Game #3, a take on the chemistry issues that can make Spoelstra’s adjustments even more difficult.
“Keep this as a major part of your thinking, in expounding on that theme – the Spurs know who they are. But because the Miami rotations have changed so much during the playoffs, the Heat will not show the same rhythm and chemistry. Prime example - Ray Allen had not had back-to-back games all season of 32:00 or more until the first two of this series. Meanwhile Udonis Haslem has gone from being a starter to an 0:46 sneeze on Sunday. The shots made by James enabled them to overcome that, but through 96 minutes a ratio of 32 assists vs. 27 turnovers is not the kind of chemistry that wins championships.”
Yes, by altering the rotation so much, the defensive chemistry is struggling. But so is the offense - through three they have nearly as many turnovers (47) as assists (49). And no, you will not win a championship with that. Lost amidst the rubble of the Tuesday loss was the fact that Miami actually connected well from the field, a 32-62 that included 10-21 triples, and to lose at home by 19 when a team shoots that well is extremely rare. Once again the offense relied too much on perimeter shots, and James was only able to get to the FT line for three attempts.
So is it really that bleak for the Heat? From an X’s and O’s standpoint, yes, there is not a chalkboard solution. But there is that matter of having the greatest player in the game, surrounded by a lot of veterans that can reach back for something. Over the past two playoff runs Miami is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS off of a loss, beating the spread by a significant 106.5 points over those games. Three times in the Finals they have lost to the Spurs in double figures, including that 113-77 disaster in Game #3 LY, and rebounded to win the next contest (2-1 ATS).
The market pattern will reflect this – Miami will certainly go off as a bigger favorite on Thursday than in Game #3, with -5 common already. As you build your handicap that recent Heat history absolutely matters, because they will compete at a high level come tipoff. But because this matchup is what it is, they have to do more than compete at a high level to cover that impost - they will have to execute at a level they might not have reached yet in the 2014 playoffs (Game #7 vs. Indiana was as much about the Pacers being bad as the Heat being great). -
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Inside the Paint- Thursday
Kawhi Leonard and the San Antonio Spurs shot their way into history - and back into the lead in the NBA Finals. Leonard scored a career-high 29 points, and the Spurs made a finals-record 75.8 percent of their shots in the first half in a 111-92 victory over the Miami Heat on Tuesday night that gave them a 2-1 lead.
The Spurs made 19 of their first 21 shots and finished 25 of 33 in the first half, bettering the 75 percent shooting by Orlando against the Lakers in the 2009 finals. They led by as much as 25 and were only briefly challenged in their second lopsided victory in the series. Unlike Game #1, when they didn't pull away until the final minutes, the Spurs were way ahead before halftime in this one.
Returning to the arena where they were oh-so-close to winning a fifth championship last year, the Spurs came out playing like they were trying to build a lead that was impossible to blow. They shot 13 of 15 in building a 41-25 lead after one, then hit their first six shots of the second in front of a stunned crowd in Miami while going ahead 55-30.
Betting Notes - Thursday
For those betting in this contest, the Spurs are 24-9 ATS over the past three seasons (72.7%) after a road win in which they scored 110 or more points. But they are only 2-8 ATS in the fourth game of a playoff series in that time timeframe while Miami is 3-0 ATS in fourth games of series this year. The Heat also happen to be 8-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the past three years. Sixteen of the past 22 games played in Miami between these teams since 1996 have gone Under the total.
The Spurs put on an offensive clinic against the Heat in Game #3, scoring 111 points in the game, including a 71-point first half where they shot an NBA Finals record 75.8% FG. SF Kawhi Leonard (15.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG in series) played the best playoff game of his life on Tuesday, scoring a career-high 29 points (10-of-13 FG, 3-of-6 threes) while also coming away with four rebounds, two steals and two blocks in 39 minutes. Leonard, who scored only 9.0 PPG in the first two games of this series, also played some smothering defense on LeBron James while the Heat were threatening to make a comeback early in the fourth quarter.
Hoop Trends - Thursday
•SAN ANTONIO is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 107.7, OPPONENT 97.8.
•MIAMI is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 106.4, OPPONENT 97.9.
•MIAMI is 28-53 (-30.3 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 50.6, OPPONENT 48.6.
•SAN ANTONIO is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 46.1, OPPONENT 46.7.
•GREGG POPOVICH is 67-38 ATS (+25.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents as the coach of SAN ANTONIO.
The average score was POPOVICH 99.8, OPPONENT 91.3.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), off an upset win of 15 points or more as a road underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(25-3 since 1996.) (89.3%, +22.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +102.4
The average score in these games was: Team 101.1, Opponent 91.7 (Average point differential = +9.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0, +9.7 units).Comment
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Three World Cup dark horses you need to know
By CHASE RUTTIG
Every World Cup has a dark horse that captivates the tournament by coming out of nowhere and knocking off some of the favorites in the process. Will this be the year a nation nobody considers will win the World Cup and reward bettors brave enough to back the dark horse?
These three countries could be likely candidates to do just that.
Chile (Group B, +4000)
In a group featuring European powerhouses in Netherlands and defending World Cup champions Spain, the South American nation of Chile are getting some serious value for futures bettors considering they will have the advantage of playing on their home continent.
Going 5-0-1 in their final six CONEMBOL qualifying fixtures, as well as beating England 2-0 while drawing Brazil and Spain in recent friendlies, Chile are quietly underrated considering some of the Serie A and La Liga talent in their squad. Arturo Vidal, Mauricio Isla and Barcelona star Alexis Sanchez give them more than enough world class talent in the midfield to give them a look at making a run towards a World Cup over their South American rivals in Brazil and Argentina. Especially giving their pressing style that led to their strong finish to qualifying.
Ivory Coast (Group C, +15000)
Ivory Coast has a reputation of having Africa's best talent, but always being unable to put it together in big tournaments which makes them interesting underdogs in a field where many feel their talent could be underrated thanks to tough draws in past World Cups.
Grouped with Netherlands and Argentina in 2006 before drawing Brazil and Portugal in 2010, it is understandable why Ivory Coast's "Golden Generation" have failed to provide Africa with the World Cup contender despite having Didier Drogba, one of the best strikers in this era dating back to his days at Chelsea.
Supporting cast members in Gervinho, Yaya & Kolo Toure, Salomon Kalou, and Chieck Tiote - in addition to Swansea youngster Wilfred Bony - give the Elephants the best cast out of the African nations. If they can finally get out of the group stage at a World Cup, anything is possible, but with less proven talent in defense, backers will be hoping they can outscore opponents to make their run.
Cameroon (Group A, +60000)
Those looking for a real long underdog should look no further than Cameroon, who just recently earned a 2-2 draw in Germany during a tune-up friendly that at one point saw the Group A underdogs up on the tournament's third favorites.
Samuel Eto'o and Alex Song make up Cameroon's star power, but a 2-2 draw against a German side over the weekend that saw DFB manager Jogi Low use nearly all of his star players showed that they are ready for a tough group that includes the likes of hosts Brazil as well as Croatia and Mexico. At around 500-to-1 odds going into the World Cup it certainly wouldn't hurt to consider Cameroon after their impressive draw with the Germans in Monchengladbach.Comment
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Game of the Day: Spurs at Heat
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-5.5, 197)
Spurs lead series 2-1
The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an epic performance and look to claim a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals when they visit the Miami Heat on Thursday. San Antonio set an NBA Finals record by shooting 75.8 percent from the field in the first half and led by as many as 25 points while rolling to a 111-92 victory in Tuesday’s Game 3. Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard broke out of his funk by scoring a career-best 29 points.
Miami forward LeBron James had 22 points but 14 of them came in the first quarter before Leonard clamped down on him on the defensive end. Leonard scored 16 points on 5-of-5 shooting in the opening period as San Antonio scored 41 points and had 71 at the half against the shell-shocked Heat. “One thing about (the Spurs), if you make a mistake, they’re going to make you pay,” James said afterward. “And they made us pay more often than not.” Game 4 is doubly important to the Heat with the NBA switching from a 2-3-2 series format to a 2-2-1-1-1 as a second straight Spurs victory in Miami would put San Antonio in position to clinch the series at home in Sunday’s Game 5.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC
LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened at -5.5, quickly dropped to -5 and have since gone back up to -5.5. The total opened at 198 but has slowly dipped to 197.
INJURY REPORT: N/A.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "After a blowout loss in Game 2, can the defending champion Heat bounce back? Miami is 13-0 in post-season games after a loss in the 'Big 3' era. We opened the Heat at -5 (-110) and we booked nothing but Heat money, but instead of adjusting our line we moved the juice to Heat -5 (-115) Spurs +5 (-105) and started to book some Spurs money at that price." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "It is amazing how similar this year's NBA Finals has mirrored last year's finals between these same two teams. The Spurs have won Games 1 and 3 both times, including blowout wins in both Game 3's by 36 and 19 point margins. Everyone is aware of Miami's strong playoff record off a straight-up loss, however they are now a 5-point favorite, compared to a +4 point underdog as they were in Game 2 on Sunday when they won straight up, but by only two points." Covers Expert Steve Merril.
ABOUT THE SPURS: Leonard was a huge disappointment while averaging just nine points and two rebounds over the first two games before erupting for the best performance of his three-year career. He made 10-of-13 field-goal attempts and also frustrated James over the final three quarters. Leonard set the tone for the Spurs with the strong first quarter showing as he cast aside the tentativeness he displayed over the first two games. “I just was in attack mode,” Leonard told reporters afterward. “Trying to be aggressive early. Just knocking down a couple of shots got me going. My teammates found me. They did a good job of getting me involved.”
ABOUT THE HEAT: Starting point guard Mario Chalmers has been a complete non-factor in the series and missed all five of his field-goal attempts while scoring just two points in Game 3. Chalmers is averaging just 3.3 points on 3-of-12 shooting and has the same number of turnovers as assists (nine apiece) as Miami is getting badly outplayed at the point-guard position. “Still at the drawing board,” Chalmers said after Game 3 in response to questions about his poor play. “Everybody else is doing their job, and it’s me that’s not helping the team right now. And I don’t want to be that guy. I don’t know what it is right now but I have to figure it out.”
TRENDS:
* Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 following a double-digit loss at home.
* Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 5-0 in Miami's last five home games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-nine percent of wagers on Covers consensus on the Spurs.Comment
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U.S. Open: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO
Pinehurst No. 2 plays host to the 114th edition of the U.S. Open and it will be a dramatic change from what we are used to when it comes to the national championship.
Thick, long and tiered rough was the calling card for the U.S. Open but we will see a much different layout this week. Pinehurst No. 2 was set up with the typical unforgiving rough the first two times it hosted back in 1999 and 2005 but a complete overhaul of the course has brought it back to its roots.
The defending champion is Justin Rose (+3,000) and while has been playing decent, he has not been contending very often. He has a pair of solo fifths and a T4 but has yet to crack the top three. History is not on his side as only one player has been able to defend his title since 1951 when Curtis Strange backed up his 1988 U.S. Open Championship at The Country Club with a win in 1989 at Oak Hill.
The odds are not great on Phil Mickelson (+1,300) but we are including him as the course setup arguably helps him more than anyone. He's not had a good season by his standards and hasn't had a Top-10 finish but he's coming off his best finish of the season with a T11 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic last week. His U.S. Open record is outstanding and his short game could help him complete the career grand slam.
The wrist injury to Jason Day (+3,000) has gotten better and he's out to win his first ever major. He's been in contention numerous times as he has appeared in 14 of them, yet already he has four Top-3 finishes - two of which have come from his three appearances at the U.S. Open. His WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship shows he can win on a big stage.
Jason Dufner (+3,500) has made 10 cuts in 11 medal-play events and while he has yet to win, he has been consistently good. He has four Top 10s including a solo fifth at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and a solo second after losing in a playoff two starts back at the Colonial. He's already is a major winner so he knows how to get it done and he's one of two golfers to have Top 5s at two of the last three U.S. Opens.
Jim Furyk (+3,500) possess the game to fit the U.S. Open and he's a past champion back in 2003. He hasn't missed a cut this season while posting back-to-back runner-ups at the Wells Fargo and The Players Championship. Eight of his last 10 starts have resulted in a T20 or better and he leads the PGA Tour in scrambling and ranks fourth in bogey avoidance, so he's another player whose game fits here.
Charl Schwartzel (+5,000) continues to go unheralded but his T8 at the Memorial in his last start was his fifth T12 or better finish in nine medal-play events, including three of his last four. He's a major champion, winning the 2011 Masters and has made the cut in the last four U.S. Opens. This includes a T16 in 2010, a T9 in 2011 and a solo 14th last year. Great odds for positive converging trends.
Hunter Mahan (+6,000) has been very quiet as injuries slowed him down but he's healthy and rested after taking the last two weeks off. He has four Top 10s this season and, while he hasn't won since the Shell Houston Open in 2012, this venue can change that. He has made five of seven U.S. Open cuts with four Top 20s including a T6 in 2009 and a T4 at Merion last year.
Recommended tournament win six pack at the U.S. Open (all for one unit)
Phil Mickelson (+1,300)
Jason Day (+3,000)
Jason Dufner (+3,500)
Jim Furyk (+3,500)
Charl Schwartzel (+5,000)
Hunter Mahan (+6,000)
2014 Record to date after 21 events: -52 Units
Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open -5 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +22 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
WGC - Accenture Match Play +23 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship -5 Units
Valspar Championship -5 Units
Arnold Palmer Invitational -5 Units
Valero Texas Open -5 Units
Shell Houston Open -5 Units
The Masters -7 Units
Zurich Classic -5 Units
Wells Fargo Championship -5 Units
THE PLAYERS Championship -5 Units
HP Byron Nelson Championship -5 Units
Crowne Plaza Invitational -5 Units
Memorial Tournament -5 Units
FedEx St. Jude Classic -5 UnitsComment
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World Cup Brazil: Group A betting preview
By SportsDirect Inc. staff
Group A
Brazil (3.75)
After a period of trials and tribulations, Brazil failed to play football on the same level as their credentials after conquering their 5th World Cup in 2002. Carlos Parreira, Dunga and Mano Menezes failed to make an impact, with two questionable performances in 2006 and 2010, the performances in Africa were heavily questioned. Luis Felipe Scolari returned and instilled a sense of responsibility in the young players and combined with a few seniors balance was struck. Winning the Confederations Cup with strong and passionate performances, the thrashing of Spain in the final was the strongest statement Felipão could've hoped for.
Brazil played with Croatia in the 2006 group stage winning 1-0 and will hardly experience any difficulties winning again. Faced Mexico thrice in the group stage winning all without conceding a goal: 2-0 (1962), 4-0 (1970), 5-0 (1954). A single duel with Cameroon, a 3-0 win in 1994 group stage.
Mexico (101.00)
El Tri faced a huge crisis in the qualifiers for the World Cup, changing their manager 4 times. With only one win in the entire qualifiers, the National Team still qualified, thanks to USA forgetting their rivalry and scoring the necessary goal in a 3-2 vs Panama. Two easy wins over New Zealand in the playoffs guaranteed their place in Brazil. Mexico still faces many internal problems and the road to stability is steep as the World Cup draws near. The team is riddled with uncertainties regarding the squad and a good run in the tournament is necessary if they wish to redeem themselves with the fan base.
Cameroon (501.00)
The African team has some memorable performances in World Cup history, but the current generation is far from the legend of 1990 where the senior Roger Milla managed to lead his country to the quarterfinals, giving England a headache to reach the semifinals. Regularly qualifying for the World Cup but only passing to the knockout rounds once, we can't expect much of Cameroon in Brazil.
Cameroon only faced Brazil once, losing 3-0 in 1994. No matches vs Mexico nor Croatia.
Croatia (126.00)
The Croatian National Team managed to qualify in the playoffs against Iceland without struggling after appointing Niko Kovac as manager, the former player managed to struck a cord with his squad. After an incredible debut in the World Cup in 1998, a heroic third place in France, Croatia failed to go past the group stage in 2002 and 2006, failing to qualify in 2010. A reasonable performance in the 2012 Euros gave Spain a few scares, but a proactive performance in 2014 isn't expected, especially considering the climate.Comment
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World Cup - Group B betting preview
By SportsDirect Inc. staff
Group B
Spain (8.00)
The World Champions face maybe the toughest draw of all the favourites. Experience will prove essential for La Roja, most of the Spaniards won the Euros and World Cup, some won everything twice and a few were just recently called up. Del Bosque faces a test that should be considered his speciality, after all he is coaching the only National Team that was capable of winning the historic treble.
Defence is Spain's biggest problem, with both starting centre backs Gerard Piqué and Sergio Ramos experiencing lackluster spells.
Spain faced Holland only once in the World Cup, the 2010 final winning 1-0, won 2-0 vs Chile in 1950 and 2-1 in 2010, both matches in the group stage.
Netherlands (26.00)
After a performance in 2010 that drew criticism from every footballing legend in their country and a miserable way of going out in the 2012 Euros, the Netherlands National Team is looking for redemption. Newly appointed coach Van Gaal recovered some of their best players to their respectful places and among the World Cup teams they hold the longest unbeaten record at 17 matches.
Revenge against Spain for the World Cup final is far too cheap of an argument, and the match will prove to be extremely difficult for both teams. Currently the biggest underachievers in the world, Oranje has a good chance to start well.
Netherlands previously faced Spain in the 2010 World Cup final, losing 1-0, and will face both Australia and Chile for the first time.
Chile (41.00)
Chile was in shambles before former player Jorge Sampaoli took the responsibility and turned their fortunes around. The manager was employed by Universidad Catolica where he managed to win the Copa Sul Americana with an incredible offensive record with dozens of goals scored and helping Eduardo Vargas reach his best. A Bielsista, Sampaoli favours attacking football using pressing combined with a strong midfield. There's a sense of dread in the European sides regarding Chile for their incredible form and advantage of playing in South America, third best in the continent after Brazil and Argentina.
Chile faced Spain twice in World Cups, losing 2-0 and 2-1. Will face Australia and Netherlands for the first time.
Australia (501.00)
The unluckiest team in the tournament, Socceroos are bound to leave Brazil with three defeats. Recently appointed, former football player Ange Postecoglou has to find a way give the 3 opponents problems and look for draws, going out of the World Cup sooner but managing to hurt a top National Team seems a significant achievement for Australia.
Australia faced Chile once in the Group Stage, drawing 0-0.Comment
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World Cup - Group C betting preview
By SportsDirect Inc. staff
Group C
Colombia (23.00)
Colombia lived through a disappointing generation and has returned to the World Cup after a 14 year hiatus. A dark horse in the World Cup, the new crop of players is set for a strong campaign. The squad holds the promise of living up to expectations, something the 1994 Golden Generation of the country failed to do.
Led by Radamel Falcão Garcia, one of the deadliest strikers in the world, El Tigre is one of the candidates for top scorer in the tournament. Garcia is accompanied by the talented Fiorentina winger Juan Cuadrado and one of the top young playmakers in the world and Monaco partner James Rodriguez.
Colombia won't struggle to find the goal net as the South American teams offence is a sight to behold.
Japan (126.00)
The most under appreciated team, Japan has grown into a fine and competitive side under Italy Legend Alberto Zacheroni, winning their 4th consecutive Asian Championship and being the first country to qualify for the World Cup for the 3rd consecutive time. Japan had a disappointing Confederations Cup, but I saw a promising side that's eager to play football to their fullest.
Shinji Kagawa has yet to replicate his Borussia Dortmund performances regularly for Manchester United, but the Japanese ace is his nation hopes for a good exhibition in the World Cup. If the form continues he's set to deliver with real sparks of brilliance. Recently signed by AC Milan, Keisuke Honda is their main striker and proven his quality constantly with not only goals but good technique and experience in Russia.
Ivory Coast (101.00)
Reaching the World Cup for the 3rd consecutive time, the Africans easily passed through the qualifiers and could challenge Colombia for the first place given their veteran players experience. Captained by Didier Drogba, the 35 year old striker has seen better days but his quality as a football player is unscathed and scored some impressive goals recently. The Touré Brothers will play a huge role for their team, especially the thunderous Manchester City midfielder now that he has discovered a knack for scoring free kicks, there's also the expectation of a few Yaya-Kolo songs.
Greece (201.00)
After the miracle of 2004, the heroes are all but legends. The impeccable defensive record continues, Greece is the team that conceded least goals in the entire European qualifiers and their classic bus will decide who's going to the knockout stages.Comment
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World Cup: Group D betting preview
By SportsDirect Inc. staff
Group D
Uruguay (26.00)
The Ghost of 1950 returns to Brazil after a difficult qualification battle, Uruguay struggled to find form and almost failed to visit their neighbours. Oscar Tabarez managed to find a way, mainly relying on two of the best strikers in the world to their fullest was key to secure a spot: 7 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats. The country was a shadow of their past achievements for decades and a glorious run in the 2010 World Cup reaching the semifinals, fortunes were turned.
Luis Suárez is in the spotlight for all the right reasons, scoring for fun in the Premier League and breaking many records in the process. Now with his contract renewed, the only player capable of outscoring Messi in the qualifiers is one of the most talented in the world.
Uruguay won 4-2 vs England in the 1954 Quarter finals and a 0-0 draw with England in the Group Stage in 1966. Faced Italy twice, losing 2-0 in the last 16 in 1990 and drawing 0-0 in the 1970 Group Stage.
Italy (26.00)
Facing a calamity in the 2010 World Cup, eliminated in a doable group, Italy started a deep renewal of their football under Cesare Prandelli wielding great results by reaching the 2012 Euro final. Aided by an also renewed Juventus, most of the success of Azzurri is related to an on form Vecchia Signora. In 2014 the team continues a long road to recycle their style and the legacy of a nation that won the World Cup 4 times, Italy will pose a threat to every title challenging country.
Italy won 2-1 vs England in the 3rd place match in the 1990 World Cup, one win and one draw with Uruguay.
England (29.00)
Experienced players like Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard will prove essential in tough matches, they're used to tackling challenges head on and that should propel youngsters such as Jack Wilshere, Chamberlain and Ross Barkley to better performances. With the right mindset England is capable of reaching the knockout stage.
England lost once to Italy, one loss and one draw vs Uruguay.
Costa Rica (999.00)
Costa Rica did well in the qualifiers giving problems to top Concacaf sides. Facing the first group in the history of the World Cup with 3 World Champions is a herculean task. Their impressive back line of 5 could give opponents a headache but qualification is a far cry.
Costa Rica has yet to face their 3 opponents in the World Cup.Comment
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World Cup: Group E betting preview
By SportsDirect Inc. staff
Group E
Switzerland (29.00)
The Swiss Miracle continues, after reaching the 2011 Euros U19 Final and causing a huge upset defeating Spain in the 2010 World Cup, Switzerland strolled through qualification and is currently placed 8th in the FIFA ranking. Ottmar Hitzfeld is the man responsible for the success the country has been enjoying for years, including young talents like Granit Xhaka, Seferovic and Gokhan Inler. If the team keeps their impeccable defensive record, qualifying for the knockout stages will happen and surprising France to seize the first place isn't a pipe dream.
France (21.00)
Among the World Champions, France was the most troubled after a disastrous campaign in South Africa: eliminated in the group stages. Raymond Domenech lost control of his players and faced a revolt, not something unique in the history of the World Cup but one of the most talked subjects of the 2010 edition. Renovation of the national team followed, but Laurent Blanc disappointed in the 2012 Euros with a negative approach when facing Spain. Didier Deschamps was next, achieving questionable results in the qualifiers, losing 2-0 to Ukraine in the playoffs but managing to turn it around with a 3-0 win.
The French side was lucky to find themselves in a easy group where they'll be able to adapt to the climate and try some new tactics in the process, only a disaster will keep them out of the knockout rounds.
France faced Switzerland in the group stages in 2006, drawing 0-0, and will play against Honduras and Ecuador for the first time.
Honduras (999.00)
Appearing for the 2nd consecutive time in the tournament, Honduras enjoyed a great campaign in the Concacaf qualifiers, a good run to the 2013 Gold Cup semifinals and tipped as one of the weakest sides they managed to go out of the last World Cup with dignity including a draw vs Switzerland. Players like Wilson Palacios (Stoke City) and Espinoza (Wigan) improved substantially. Honduras could give a respectful showing in the group stages.
Ecuador (126.00)
In a campaign marked by a stellar home record (7W, 1D, 0L) and a winless away form, Ecuador managed to comfortably qualify to the World Cup for the 3rd consecutive time and looked set to impress if it wasn't for the terrible away record. A team that relied too much on the high altitude at home, they're set to struggle in Brazil. Manager Reinaldo Rueda is a recognised tactician, but overcoming the psychological side might prove too much of a task.Comment
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World Cup: Group F betting preview
By SportsDirect Inc. staff
Group F
Argentina (5.50)
Alejandro Sabella managed what his last two predecessors were unable to do by creating a side capable of challenging for the World Cup. Immensely improving his country, the manager was able to finally extract the best Lionel Messi has to offer and built the team around him replicating what was done in 1986 by coach Carlos Billardo with Diego Armando Maradona. Argentina's campaign in the qualifiers was a good one with 9 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. Scoring the most goals in the qualifiers (35) and conceding the 2nd least (15), a reasonable defensive record.
We constantly hear that this is Messi's World Cup, his chance to lift the title close to his home country and the best player in the world knows it too. Finally returning after a long term injury and a mini pre-season, the Argentinian is set to give his all to lift the only trophy that's not in his cabinet. One of the best in the history of the game and now a mature player, expectations surrounding Messi in 2014 are immense.
The group could be a stroll for Argentina and qualifying for the knockout round with 3 wins is the minimum expected. Argentina faced Nigeria 3 times in the World Cup, all 3 in the group stage winning 2-1 (1994), 1-0 (2002) and 1-0 (2010) and will play its first matches against Bosnia and Iran.
Bosnia Herzegovina (1.51)
Qualifying for the first time for the World Cup, Bosnia had a tough task in Brazil before the group draw. Luckily for them the group looks doable with the main difficulty being facing Argentina, two wins vs Iran and Nigeria will qualify the rookies for the knockout rounds in their first appearance, a feat matched by Croatia in 1998.
Iran (7.51)
A surprise qualification in Asia, the Iranians booked their ticket to Brazil with 10 wins, 4 draws and only 2 losses. The Middle East country goes to the World Cup for the 4th time in their history. With only one win in their history (vs USA in 1998), qualifying to the knockout rounds is asking too much of a weak but consistent side.
Nigeria (251.00)
An incredible win in the African Cup of Nations in February 2012, the side showed promise under the bright coach Stephen Keshi after a significant overhaul of their resources and players. A questionable qualification campaign with 3 wins and 3 losses together with a disappointing performance in the Confederations Cup lowered expectations significantly, and now the side will visit Brazil again with many doubts.Comment
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World Cup: Group G betting preview
By SportsDirect Inc. staff
Group G
Germany
Time has come for Die Mannschaft, the huge period of let downs and a growing frustration has passed. Jogi Low's side looks set to challenge for the World Cup along with Brazil, Argentina and Spain. The German Federation completely rebuilt their structure from scratch and they're reaping their rewards more than a decade later.
The road to Brazil was easy but not without important landmarks in a campaign with 9 wins and a draw. Germany showed some persistent flaws including an unsettling lack of concentration, falling too easy into the trap of easy matches and falling victim to a well-organized Italy in the 2012 Euros Semifinals. Low tended to it and the team is significantly sharper, ready to win a tournament like the World Cup. The Federation is building their own training camp and accommodations in Brazil, a significant advantage over other European countries.
Germany faced Portugal once, winning 3-1 to decide the 3rd place in 2006. One 1-0 win vs Ghana in 2010. 2-0 win vs USA in 1998, another win in the quarterfinals in 2002 (1-0).
Portugal
A questionable record in an easy group in the qualifiers with 6 wins, 3 draws and one loss is typical of the country in their recent history. Portugal always struggle in the qualifiers, but two solid wins against Sweden in the playoffs including a hat trick by Cristiano Ronaldo guaranteed their presence in Brazil. A great defence is among Portugal's strengths, combined with the talented playmaker João Moutinho feeding one of the best players in the world upfront and they have the recipe to qualify to the knockout rounds without significant problems.
United States
USA together with Japan are the underrated duo of the World Cup. Under Jurgen Klinsmann they have enjoyed a growth in their footballing culture and tactics in general after a shaky start, winning 12 consecutive matches in 2013, a new national team record. A difficult group could send them home earlier, but they're certainly keen on repeating the impressive feat that was the 3-2 win vs Portugal in 2002 that secured a place in the knockout rounds.
United States have lost to Germany twice (1-0, 2-0), two losses to Ghana (2-1, 1-0) and a 3-2 vs Portugal.
Ghana
One of the most sympathetic sides of the 2010 World Cup, Ghana returns to challenge for a healthy performance in Brazil after being denied by Luis Suárez hand in 2010. Responsible for crushing USA hopes in the last two World Cups and giving Germany some problems in the group match in 2010, the Black Stars might not qualify but given their previous showings impossible is nothing.Comment
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Game 4 - Spurs at Heat
By Kevin Rogers
In the last 10 NBA Finals games between the Spurs and Heat, the two teams won five times each. After Miami captured the championship last summer in seven games, San Antonio is halfway to the franchise’s fifth title after putting on a historic shooting display in the first half of Tuesday’s Game 3 rout of Miami.
The Spurs knocked down 19 of their first 21 shots, while shooting a scorching 75% from the floor in the first half of a 111-92 rout of Miami to cash outright as four-point underdogs. San Antonio put up 71 points in the first 24 minutes, while building a 25-point lead (55-30) in the second quarter. The Heat came all the way back to trim the deficit to seven points in the third (81-74), but Marco Belinelli’s three-pointer stopped a 10-0 Miami run to end any chance of a Heat victory.
San Antonio handed Miami its first home loss of the postseason and snapped the Heat’s 11-game playoff winning streak at the American Airlines Arena dating back to last summer’s Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The keys for the Spurs in Game 3 were Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, who combined to shoot 17-of-21 from the floor for 44 points, including a career playoff-high 29 points for Leonard. San Antonio finished with 59% shooting from field and still won by 19 points in spite of Miami connecting on 51% of its shots.
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade each scored 22 points for the Heat in Game 3, while Chris Bosh attempted only four shots after scoring 18 points in each of the first two contests in this series. Miami has done a terrific job of bouncing back off a loss in the playoffs since 2012, posting a 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS record in this situation the last 13 tries. In this postseason, the Heat has won and covered all four times off a loss, including in Game 2 at San Antonio.
VegasInsider.com’s Chris David breaks down this profitable trend, “If you’ve been betting the NBA playoffs the past couple years, then you’re well aware of Miami’s production off a loss. It’s an amazing feat and something that shouldn’t be overlooked. What’s also impressive about this Heat group is that they never trailed 3-1 in a series since they formed their elite alliance in 2010. While these angles are very strong, I believe the public is buying into it too much and it’s evident based on the line in Game 4.”
The oddsmakers are testing this theory that Miami will rebound on Thursday, as David believes this number is a tad rich, “I’m scratching my head on this line and didn’t expect Miami to open as a 5-point favorite. This point-spread is comparable to last year’s Finals when the Heat were favored by 5, 6, 6 ½ and 5 ½ points. The Game 1 in this series was Miami +4 ½, which was a fair line considering San Antonio has improved and Miami isn’t as good. The betting public is already expecting Miami to rebound and the number has been bet up to 5 ½ points at most shops. I’m not sure what series everybody is watching but last time I checked San Antonio has won by double digits in both its victories while the Heat earned a two-point decision. Even if you expect the Heat to win Game 5, I’d be hesitant to lay that many points.”
The series price has swung back and forth after each of the first three games, as San Antonio is listed as a -225 favorite to win the title (Bet $225 to win $100). The Heat are actually in a potentially profitable spot in spite of the Game 3 loss, listed as a +185 underdog (Bet $100 to win $185) to win three of the next four games.
At the beginning of the series, James was the favorite to win the MVP, but San Antonio’s Tim Duncan is currently a 6/5 (+120) favorite to capture the series MVP, according to Sportsbook.ag. James has slipped to 8/5 odds (+160) to win his third Finals MVP, while Tony Parker has jumped to 7/2 odds (+350) to capture his second career Finals MVP. Following Leonard’s impressive Game 3 effort, the Spurs’ swingman is up to 9/1 (+900) to win the award.
From the totals standpoint, which saw the ‘over’ hit in Game 3, David says that this has not been a cakewalk when betting totals in this series, “Including Game 3, betting the totals in this series have been sweatshops. Even though the ‘over’ cashed on Tuesday, it did get dicey at the end. And the same thing can be said for bettors who had the ‘under’ in Game 3. The pace hasn’t been fast by any means but you do have two teams that can make shots from 3-point land and Tuesday’s outcome was certainly helped with 44 combined points from the free throw line. I do believe one thing that will play a factor on Thursday is fatigue with both teams playing their third game in five nights. Even knowing that, it’s hard to go against Miami’s run (13-4-1) to the ‘over’ in this year’s playoffs.”
The Heat are currently 5 ½-point favorites at most books, while the total is set at 197. Game 4 tips off at 9:00 PM EST on Thursday and can be seen on ABC.Comment
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NBA playoffs
Spurs scored 41 points in first quarter, 71 in first half Tuesday; their eFG% was over 100% in first quarter, second time they've done that in this series. Home team won 12 of last 17 series games, but lost two of three in this series; Spurs lost seven of last nine visits here. Nine of last 12 Miami games went over total; seven of last eleven San Antonio games stayed under. Spurs are just 4-5 on road in playoffs, 3-2 vs spread when getting points. Heat is 8-1 SU at home in playoffs, 6-3 vs spread. Miami was -22 in 40:05 that Lebron James sat out in first three games. Spurs scored 110-111 points in their two wins, 96 in their loss.
Over is 50-37 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 35-52 in playoffs this season.Comment
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