6-20-14

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play FRI

Cinci -140

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Hondo

Hondo, fresh off his thrilling no-hit victory with Kershaw Wednesday night, came right back and … posted a loss for Thursday as he split with the Pirates and Nats to raise the dirty digits slightly to 1,555 sheldons.

Friday night: Mr. Aitch’s pick of the litter is Kuroda — 10 units on the Yankees to subject Ubaldo to a hair-raising experience at the Stadium.

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

Seattle +110

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Brewers on Thursday and likes the Pirates on Friday.

The deficit is 173 sirignanos.

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Gaming Today
Andy Iskoe

Here’s a look at four series of interest this weekend.


Atlanta at Washington: This four game series between the leaders of the NL East begins Thursday. This is the first meeting between the rivals since they met for a pair of series a week apart in early April. Atlanta won 5 of those 6 games, including all three home games. Four of the six went OVER the Total with two staying UNDER as the teams averaged a combined 8.0 runs per game.The Braves continue to rely more on pitching than offense for their success, although they can hit the long ball. Still, Atlanta averages just 3.7 runs per game – both at home and on road – while the average runs per game across MLB is 4.2. Washington also has an outstanding pitching staff, especially with its starting rotation.The offense is better than Atlanta’s although still pretty much mediocre, averaging 4.3 rpg at home. De-spite the earlier results this season this series handicaps as low scoring, especially with Bryce Harper still sidelined for the Nationals.

Plays: Either team as +120 underdogs or more in any matchup; UNDER 7.5 or higher in any matchup except in a start by Atlanta’s Ervin Santana; UNDER 7 in matchups of Atlanta’s Julio Teheran or Gavin Floyd against the Nats’ Jordan Zimmermann or Tanner Roark.


Detroit at Cleveland: The Indians have won 4 of the 5 games this season against the Tigers. Four went OVER the Total with one staying UNDER as the teams averaged a combined 11.0 runs per game that included Cleveland’s 11-to-10 win in their most recent meeting on May 21.Depending upon what happens in midweek, this could be a series for first place in the AL Central with the Indians just 3.5 behind Detroit through Sunday and the Tigers facing second place Kansas City for four games while Cleveland hosts the Angels, also in a four game series. Part of the reason Detroit has not been able to compile a better record has been an atrocious bullpen, in addition to the struggles of former Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander. Through 14 starts Verlander’s ERA is 4.61 with an even more disturbing 1.50 WHIP.Only Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez are posting above average stats, putting even more pressure on that weak pen. For the Tribe only Josh Tomlin and Corey Kluber are pitching well as starters. Both offenses are slightly better than average and both teams have played more OVERs than UNDERs this season.

Plays: OVER 8.5 or lower in any matchup not involving Scher-zer or Kluber; Cleveland +140 or more against Verlander; Cleveland as underdogs of any price not facing Scherzer; Detroit -130 or less with Scherzer not opposing Kluber; Cleveland -125 or less with Kluber not facing Scherzer.


Baltimore at NY Yankees: This is only the second series this season between the Orioles and Yankees. Baltimore took two of three games, also at Yankee Stadium, when the teams met in early April. Two of the three games went OVER the Total with one staying UNDER as the teams averaged a combined 11.3 runs per game.Baltimore’s starting pitching is down from last season, no starter has an ERA below 3.70 and only Bud Norris is averaging greater than 6 innings per start (6.3). New York’s rotation has been led by “rookie” Masahiro Tanaka who has been out-standing through his first 13 starts, averaging 7.2 innings per start with a 2.02 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.The Yankees have won 11 of his 13 starts. The rest of the rotation has been average at best although true rookie Chase Whitley has shown promise. Surprisingly the Orioles are averaging just 3.2 runs per game at home but 5.1 rpg on the road. The Yanks have also been more productive on the road than at home where they are averaging just 3.7 rpg.

Plays: OVER 8 or lower in any matchup not involving Tanaka; Yankees -150 or less in a start by Tanaka against any Baltimore starter; Baltimore +120 or more not facing Tanaka or Whitley.

Toronto at Cincinnati: The lone Interleague series this weekend is most interesting as it pits a pair of teams expected to contend for the post season with opposite strengths and weaknesses. The Reds rely more on pitching than hitting for their success while the reverse is true for Toronto. The Blue Jays average 4.7 runs per game, almost evenly balanced at home vs. on the road. Cincy averages just 3.6 rpg at home (3.7 on the road).Toronto’s rotation has been led by veteran lefty Mark Buehrle, who leads the starters in ERA (2.28) and innings per start (6.8) with a 1.22 WHIP. He’s gone at least 6 innings while allowing 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his 14 starts and the Jays have won 11 of those starts. Cincinnati’s rotation has been led by Johnny Cueto whose stats of 7.3 innings per start, 1.85 ERA and 0.78 WHIP are among the best in baseball.Converted reliever Alfredo Simon has also been a revelation and 10 of his 13 starts have resulted in UNDERs. And after spending all of the season on the DL, Mat Latos’ 2014 debut went well as he tossed 6 shutout innings in Saturday’s 4-2 loss at Milwaukee, allowing just 2 hits and zero walks. The Reds bullpen has generally been a strength.

Plays: UNDER 7.5 or higher in a matchup of Toronto’s Buehrle or Drew Hutchison against Cueto, Latos or Simon; Toronto +150 or more against Cueto; Toronto +130 or more against Simon or Latos; Toronto as underdogs of any price against other Cincinnati starters; Toronto -120 or less in a start by Buehrle not opposing Cueto, Simon or Lato

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Baseball33

USA: MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks – San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants +1
Odd: 1,70

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WNBA's Best Bets
Jason Logan

Basketball bettors are still scooping their jaws off the hardwood following the San Antonio Spurs’ somewhat surprising domination of the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals.

Now that the NBA season is over and March Madness is a distant memory, hoop heads have only one option – outside of wagering on those weirdo European leagues. The WNBA is in full stride but if you haven’t paid attention to the action in the “Dub”, we get you caught up on what you missed while you were sleeping:

Doggy Dog World

Underdogs owned the early betting of the WNBA season, going an unreal 15-6 ATS in the first 21 games of the season – a 71 percent ATS rate.

As always, trends like this tend to level out. Underdogs are 35-32 (52.24 percent) as of Wednesday, however, home underdogs continue to be a profitable play with a 13-8 ATS mark (62 percent).

The Tulsa Shock have been the liveliest underdogs in the league. Tulsa is just 4-5 SU but 6-2 ATS, covering the spread as pups in five of those six pointspread paydays.

Over rated

For those who poo-poo the lower-scoring action in the WNBA, the ladies have been exceeding the oddsmakers offensive expectations so far this season.

The league has produced a 38-29 Over/Under record as of Wednesday, paying out Over backers at a 56.72 percent clip. WNBA games are averaging 155.5 total points, with the Phoenix Mercury leading the league at 84.1 points per game. Phoenix, however, is just 5-5 Over/Under.

The top Overs teams include the Atlanta Dream (8-3 O/U), Minnesota Lynx (9-4 O/U), and Connecticut Sun (8-5 O/U).

On the other side of the total, the Washington Mystics (4-8 O/U), New York Liberty (5-7 O/U) and Seattle Storm (6-7 O/U) are the only three teams out of the 12 WNBA franchises staying below the number more often than not.

Best/Worst ATS

The Mercury boast a league-best 8-3 SU and ATS record so far this season. Phoenix is still paced by women’s basketball legend Diana Taurasi (18.6 ppg) but has a tremendous supporting cast, including fellow WNBA veteran Candace Dupree (15.2 ppg) and phenom Brittney Griner (16.5 ppg).

At the bottom of the barrel are the Los Angeles Sparks, who have stumbled to a 3-7 SU and ATS record. Los Angeles has plenty of fire power – ranked fourth in scoring – and featuring All-Star Candace Parker (20.2 ppg), but can’t stop opponents from scoring. The Sparks allow a league-worst 82.7 points per game, which is burning bettors with four straight ATS losses heading into Wednesday’s home game with Tulsa.

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MLB

San Francisco at Arizona

The opening matchup of a three game series between San Francisco and Arizona is Friday's baseball betting focus. The NL West leading Giants hitting a rough patch dropping 8 of it's last 9 on the diamond look to Tim Lincecum in the opener. The right-hander is 5-4 with a 4.81 ERA but comes in a little shaky having gone 1-1 the past three with a whopping 7.16 ERA (3-0 O/U). Digging deeper to get a better take on past series performance our MLB Database tells us Giants have lost 7-of-10 vs Arizona w/Lincecum with 'Over' dominating in 7 of the 10 contests. Meanwhile, NL West basement dwelling D-Backs on a 2-7 slide counter with Josh Collmenter bringing a 4-4 record, 4.05 ERA to the mound. Like his counterpart, Collmenter has struggled the past three posting an 0-2 mark with a 6.50 ERA (2-1 O/U). Well to note, D-Backs have won 3-of-4 against Giants w/Collmenter (3-1 O/U) including 2-0 hooked up against Lincecum. Two hurler not in the greatest of form makes 'Over' a good play. 'Over' has hit in 6-of-7 encounters, Giants have played 'Over' in 10 of 11, D-Backs have played 'Over' in 6 of 8. Another positive for 'Over' gamblers has been when D-Backs hand the ball to Collmenter at home vs a winning team (4-1-1 O/U) and when Giants face a losing team on the road w/Lincecum (13-2-2 O/U).

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HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Dodgers(-105)

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Advanced sports investments

perry's selections
fifa world cup
1x- italy -190 costa rica (12pm)
2x- france -120 switzerland (3pm)
2x- ecuador/hondruas - over 1.5 -310 (6pm)

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GAMBLING GOD

Team A: Italy
Team B: Costa Rica
League: Soccer World Cup
Pick: Italy -1
Risk:$101 to win $100
Time: 9:00 PM PT

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StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

WNBA | TULSA at PHOENIX
Play Under – Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
1-5 this year. ( 16.7% | -4.5 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at CHICAGO
Play Against – Home teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) poor defensive team – allowing 73+ points/game on the season, after allowing 90 points or more
62-44 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.5% | 0.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at CHICAGO
Play Under – Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points good foul drawing team – attempting >=20 free throws/game, up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season
256-157 since 1997. ( 62.0% | 83.3 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

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SPORTSWAGERS

FIFA World Cup

Costa Rica +1 -105 over Italy

(Risking 1.05 units - To Win: 1.00)

June 20 12:00 PM EST. With the first set of Group D games in the books, oddsmakers are still inclined to portray Costa Rica as a heavy underdog against Italy, despite a convincing win against Uruguay on Saturday. Italy enters this fixture with an impressive win against an England team, who simply did not appear to have much chemistry. However, Costa Rica did. In fact the Costa Rican team eliminated any notions that underdogs cannot win and win handily. Uruguay had all the ducks in a row after they marked first in the opening fixture. However, in the second half Costa Rica would launch a series of surprise attacks. Each goal was more brilliant than the next and was the result of creative artistry. Despite their 3-1 victory of the highest ranked club in the group in Uruguay, Costa Rica is better than a 6-1 underdog here. One win as a significant dog instills a ton of confidence and that’s what Costa Rica brings to the table for this one.

To proclaim that Costa Rica will win this match outright would be a tad ambitious. Though, it’s certainly not inconceivable. The key in this match-up is the strategy employed by Costa Rica to subdue the shark that is striker Mario Balotelli. Balotelli was responsible for probing and attacking the England defense in the opening game, resulting in his sixth international goal of Italy’s World Cup Campaign and the game winner as well. The Italians have a point to prove in Brazil after returning home in shame form South Africa. Buoyed by youth and manager Cesare Prandelii’s vision, Italy has been reborn but they don’t figure to take a lot of chances here and in that regard we like the Costa Ricans to keep it close and perhaps even play them to a tie.


FIFA World Cup

Switzerland +½ +118 over France

(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.18)

June 20 3:00 PM EST. A folly in the odds making procedure is evident in the fixture between European contestants, France and Switzerland. France has been playing quality football entering the 2014 World Cup, but Switzerland has climbed the ladder to a top-six position. In astounding regard, France is heavily favored to win this fixture. In “the tale of the tape”, this is pitted to be a very even bout. France is a titan at the World Cup and has appeared in numerous finals and captured a couple of World Cup crowns in the process. Switzerland is the new kid on the block, but the Swiss pack a mighty punch. Seemingly despite their ranking, the Swiss have been sullied and regarded as a bit of a “paper tiger”. The Swiss will be determined to prove doubters wrong and this is the venue to showcase the potential and talent of La Nati.

Many forget that the Swiss announced their prominence with a 1-0 defeat of Spain in the 2010 World Cup. Spain would continue on to win the entire tournament, but the blemish of the Swiss loss was a mark of imperfection in the championship campaign. For the Swiss, this was a feather in the cap and a foundation to build for future success. The Swiss have done exactly that and in fact, in qualification they did not lose one contest. Conversely, the Blues have rested on their laurels and reputation. In recent results, the French has seemed to hit their stride, posting an 8-1-1 record in their last 10. Prior to this, the French struggled greatly losing by considerable margins to Uruguay, Spain, Netherlands, Germany and Brazil in both qualification and friendly play. Switzerland will be the greatest test for France since they squared off with Ukraine in 2013. Neither team will give or break so this has the feeling to be a fixture where one goal is scored by each party. This should be a very evenly matched contest and with that, we’ll lock up the Swiss to tie or win outright.

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Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Braves at Nationals

Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Minor (2-4, 4.42 ERA)
WSH: Strasburg (6-5, 3.06 ERA)

Series recap: The Braves continued their domination of the Nationals this season with a 3-0 shutout on Thursday as +130 underdogs. Atlanta improved to 7-1 against Washington in 2014, including a 4-0 mark at Nationals Park. In the four victories in D.C., Braves’ pitching has limited the Nats to just five runs.

What to watch for: Atlanta has won consecutive games just once since June 1, posting a 1-5 record the last six games off a victory. The Nationals are 6-1 in Strasburg’s past seven home starts, but Washington has lost each of the right-hander’s last three home outings against Atlanta since 2013.

Orioles at Yankees

Probable Pitchers:
BAL: Jimenez (2-8, 4.86 ERA)
NYY: Kuroda (4-5, 4.32 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Orioles are coming off their third straight series against a division foe, taking two of three at Tampa Bay. Baltimore is currently 6-4 in this stretch within the AL East, which includes a 2-0 triumph at Tropicana Field on Wednesday as +130 underdogs. The Yankees are getting back on track after sweeping the Blue Jays at home, while scoring 13 runs in the final two victories.

What to watch for: New York has dropped each of Kuroda’s last three starts, while the offense has plated just five runs in those defeats. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Yankees have won four of Kuroda’s five home starts against the O’s, including a 4-2 triumph in April. Jimenez continues to struggle, as the Orioles own a 1-6 record in his past seven trips to the mound, while Baltimore is 9-2 to the ‘under’ in the past 11 games overall.

Tigers at Indians

Probable Pitchers:
DET: Porcello (8-4, 4.03 ERA)
CLE: Kluber (6-4, 3.35 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Tigers avoided a sweep by edging the red-hot Royals on Thursday, 2-1, as Detroit has fallen into second place in the AL Central. Detroit finished off a seven-game homestand at 3-4, while losing 2.75 units. The Indians grabbed two of three from the Angels, capped off by a walk-off grand slam on Thursday in the 10th inning, 5-3.

What to watch for: Cleveland is riding an 11-1 stretch at Progressive Field, which began with a three-game sweep of Detroit last month. The Tribe has won six of their past eight home series openers, while losing just one series since the end of May. The Tigers have put together a 5-1 record in Porcello’s last six road starts, including a 4-0 mark as an underdog. Since winning six straight on the road in May, Detroit has stumbled to a 4-9 record the past 13 games on the highway.

Blue Jays at Reds

Probable Pitchers:
TOR: Hendriks (1-0, 2.31 ERA)
CIN: Latos (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Jays continue to struggle after getting swept by the Yankees, while losing seven of their past nine games. Following five ‘unders’ to begin this road trip, Toronto has hit the ‘over’ in each of the last two games at New York. The Reds took care of their second straight road series, grabbing two of three at Pittsburgh, but fell short in 12 innings on Thursday, 4-3.

What to watch for: Cincinnati has won six of its past eight games to get within a game of the .500 mark, but is just 5-7 in the last 12 home contests. Following an 11-1 run on the road, the Jays have stumbled to a 2-5 mark the past seven away contests. After losing the first two interleague contests at Pittsburgh, the Jays have compiled a 6-2 record in the last eight interleague matchups.

Mariners at Royals

Probable Pitchers:
SEA: Iwakuma (5-3, 2.59 ERA)
KC: Shields (8-3, 3.50 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Mariners split a four-game interleague series with the light-hitting Padres, while scoring just two runs in the final two losses at San Diego. The Royals saw their 10-game winning streak snapped at Detroit on Thursday, but Kansas City still stole three of four at Comerica Park, which included a pair of wins in the first two games scoring 11 runs each.

What to watch for: Kansas City and Seattle split a four-game set at Safeco Field last month, as Iwakuma tossed a 1-0 shutout in the series opener. Since getting swept by the Astros in May, the Royals are 5-2 in their last seven home contests. In Shields’ last eight starts, the Royals own a perfect 8-0 record, while the ‘over’ has cashed six times.

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Bookieshunter

World Cup Soccer

3* Italy

1* Over 2.5 Switzerland/Francesa

1* Ecuador -1