6-23-14

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Matt Fargo

Fargo's MLB TRIPLE DOG PLAY

9* (908) Colorado Rockies
9* (914) Baltimore Orioles
9* (920) Kansas City Royals

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Hondo

The Metamucils got in the flow against the Marlins Sunday, but Tanaka and the Yanks were bludgeoned by the Birds, giving Hondo a painful split that boosted the deficit to 1,505 armbristers.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch will attempt to move closer to the black with the Reds — 10 units on Cincy to Simon-ize the Cubs.

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

St. Louis @ COLORADO

COLORADO +102 over St. Louis

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

Jholuly’s Chacin is 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA and that has he and the Rockies falsely billed as the underdog in this game. Chacin’s numbers are not going to appeal to many but he’s an interesting study and he’s high on our list of “buy-low” candidates. Last year, Chacin came back strong after missing most of 2012 to a pectoral injury. His control was the best of his career by a wide margin and just two of first 28 starts were disasters before he faded in September. That’s pretty remarkable when one considers where he pitches half his games. Chacin also regained his groundball tilt last year and has maintained it this year. We’re just now beginning to see the “old” Chacin come back to life. He has 23 K’s in his last 29 innings and it is supported by his 10% swing and miss rate over that span. Chacin’s groundball rate over his last five starts is 53%, up from his season rate of 45% and his line-drive/fly-ball rate over that same stretch is outstanding at 18%/29%. Chacin’s GB rate in his last start was 63%. Chacin is pitching much better than his surface stats suggest and he’s facing a Cardinals offense that scares nobody.

Lance Lynn is not having a bad season but he has had some bumps in the road along the way. Two of his last four starts have been disasters. Over his last five starts, he has a 23/15 K/BB in 31.1 IP. The reason why he is such a bad option today as the chalk is the schedule has him pitching at Coors Field. Throughout his career, Lynn has been much better at home (3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) than on the road (4.34 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). The Rockies put up 6.4 runs per game at home where they own a .329 BA and .911 OPS. Lynn’s overall 3.15 ERA does not come with skills support. Other than a decent strikeout total of 82 in 91 innings, none of his other skills support the ERA. He’s walking more batters than ever, his WHIP of 1.31 is worse than the league average, his groundball/fly-ball split of 45%/35% is about league average and his xERA over his last seven starts is 4.44. Lynn has been greatly aided by an extremely lucky 89% strand rate over his last five starts. Lynn’s numbers look pretty on paper (1.89 ERA over his last three) but don’t buy it, as he is not even an average pitcher on the road and this venue is very unforgiving to any pitcher with a high WHIP. Wrong side favored.


Washington @ MILWAUKEE

Washington +110 over MILWAUKEE

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)

After a grueling 7-game road trip through Arizona and Colorado, the Brewers return home for this opener. A seven-game trip is nothing unique but most of Milwaukee’s games on said trip went well over three hours and it’s also worth noting that the Crew went from the 100+ degrees weather in Arizona to the high altitude in Denver. Milwaukee’s starters lasted a combined 14.1 innings in the three games in Colorado, where the two teams combined for 47 runs in the three-game set. We’re suggesting this isn’t a good spot for the Brewers, who may be running on fumes after that trip and who will be playing their 14th straight game here without a day off. Matt Garza is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over his last four starts but don't confuse his good results with good skills. In those four starts, he has a 4.30 xERA, a low 4.7 K’s/9 and eight walks in 26 frames. In 15 starts for a team with one of the best records in the majors, Garza has just four wins. He’s definitely serviceable but he’s also not to be trusted in this spot against a very good Nationals team.

In his first start back after missing a month, Gio Gonzalez wasn’t sharp against the Astros, allowing four earned runs in five innings. We’ll give him a pass, as many pitchers need a game to get back into the groove. No question that he’s ready otherwise the Nationals would’ve delayed his return. Thing is, Gonzalez struck out six in five innings and now has 59 K’s in 56 innings. Gonzalez has been consistent for four years running. He went more than 7 IP only three times in 2012. In 2013, he reached that mark only twice. His skills describe a borderline star, lacking the control and endurance to take the next step. He has been the same solid pitcher for three straight years and over that time he has a 48-28 record. When Gonzalez pitches, the Nationals win and in this favorable spot and taking back a small tag, we’ll gladly get on board.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Antony Dinero

Cincinnati Reds ML +106

San Francisco Giants ML -155

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Scott Pritchard

Kansas City vs. L.A. Dodgers (Jun 23 8:10 PM EST)

Kansas City Royals

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2Halves2Win (Comp pick):

Up +.62 YTD:


0.5* GAME - BOS @ SEA: Mariners

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MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Yankees Blanked as Big Faves

The New York Yankees (-208) ended their weekend series against Baltimore with a thud, dropping an 8-0 decision Sunday afternoon. It's the first time the Yankees have been shut out as a favorite of -200 or greater since August 15, 2010, when they fell 1-0 to Kansas City despite being installed at -210.

Cardinals Undercut High Totals

The St. Louis Cardinals face their largest total of the season in their series opener with the host Colorado Rockies. St. Louis has one of the lowest average totals in baseball and is 1-9-2 O/U so far this year in games with totals of eight or higher.

Kershaw's Encore

Clayton Kershaw will try to follow up on his first career no-hitter Tuesday as he leads the Los Angeles Dodgers into Kansas City for an interleague date with the Royals. Kershaw has allowed just four runs over his last four starts, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 O/U over that stretch.

Pitching Notes

Seattle ace Felix Hernandez has been red-hot of late, allowing two runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts. The Mariners are 5-2 SU and 2-4-1 O/U over that stretch but have lost back-to-back Hernandez starts entering Monday's game against visiting Boston (+136, 6.5).

Oakland left-hander Scott Kazmir looks to continue his recent Under trend as he faces the host New York Mets on Tuesday. Kazmir is 1-5 O/U over his last six starts, with the Athletics a sizzling 5-1 SU in that stretch thanks to Kazmir allowing just eight combined runs in those games.

Hitting Notes

Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro has 11 home runs in just 293 at-bats so far this season, three shy of his career high set in 646 at-bats in 2012. The Cubs are 5-4 SU and 7-2 O/U in games in which Castro goes deep entering Monday's game against visiting Cincinnati (+104).

Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera has been one of the catalysts for the team's four-game winning streak, batting .400 with a home run and five RBIs over that span. Cabrera and the Tigers face Texas on Tuesday; the reigning AL MVP is a .379 hitter with 63 RBIs in 63 career games versus the Rangers.

Totals Streak

Seattle Mariners (3-14-1 O/U): Seattle's pitching staff has been as good as any in the majors over the past eight games, allowing exactly one run in five of the Mariners' last eight games en route to a 6-2 record over that stretch. Seattle is 31-41-4 O//U for the season.

Prop of the Day

The Mariners are a strong play at -2.5 runs (+275). In addition to Hernandez being at his stingy best, the Red Sox haven been dreadful away from Boston of late, scoring just seven runs over a six-game road stretch before erupting for seven in a narrow win over Oakland on Sunday afternoon.

Injury Notes

Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun has an ankle injury and is questionable for Monday's game against Washington (+109, 8). The Brewers are 9-8 SU, 12-5 O/U and +159 units in 17 games without Braun in 2014.

Toronto infielder Brett Lawrie is out indefinitely after suffering a fractured finger in Sunday's loss to Cincinnati. The Blue Jays are 3-4 SU, 5-2 O/U and -134 units in seven games with Lawrie on the shelf so far this season.

Weather Watch

Wind at Camden Yards will blow out to left field at 8 mph for Monday's game between host Baltimore (+108, 7.5) and the Chicago White Sox. Teams averaged a combined 10.89 runs and 3.56 home runs over nine games in similar conditions last season - well above stadium averages.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS

Free Play: Seattle -140 vs Boston

Monday 6/23 Service Plays

So close to another clean sweep!! Milwaukee gets the much needed run in the top of the 9th to give us the 2 run lead, but they just couldn't hold it and only won by 1 to make us lose on the RL!! 2-1 for the day is still a winning day and that's all we are looking for each and every day!! Let's get winning day # 3 in a row today to start this run we were all waiting for!!!


MLB

Cinncinati +105


LA Dodgers -125


San Francisco -155


St. Louis RL -1.5 +135

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Primetime Insiders

3* Plays

Miami +104

LAD -118

2* Play

CHW -110

1* Play

CHC -115

Cincinnati and Chicago Under 8.5

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Topshelfpicks - Carson K - 2* Nationals

The Brewers are 8-7 with Garza pitching this year. In those 8 wins he got some pretty good run support(50runs), 6.25 runs a game. In the 7 loses(15runs) 2.14 runs a game. I know Milw has put up some runs the last couple of games. I believe that comes to an end today.

The Brewers are only hitting .239 vs. LHP and they will be facing Gio Gonzalez. After getting that first start from coming back, out of the way, I see him pitching a very solid game today.

I also see 73% of the bets coming in on the Brewers, which tells me that I'm on the right side with the Nat's.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner

#NFAC "Premium Play" Move

920 KC ROYALS +100 ML

920 KC ROYALS +1.5 RL

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Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Sides

#912: Blue Jays: -105 1.5*
Listed Pitchers: Whitley / Stroman

#914: Orioles: +115 .5*
Listed Pitchers: Sale / Chen


Totals

#915/916: Over Mariners: 6.5 (-105) 3*
Listed Pitchers: Lackey / Hernandez

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BigBaseballBets

5* Under 10.5 St. Louis Cardinals/Colorado Rockies

Lynn vs. Chacin Listed

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Antony Dinero

New York Yankees ML +115


Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

Play: Over 7 -120

Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 -155

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Ray Dunavant

Baltimore Orioles +100

Chicago Cubs -110

Kansas City Royals +115

Washington Nationals +118