7-8-14

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Tuesday card has the 100% Inter league Game of the Month and 2 Totals system one is 100% averaging over 12 runs, the other has 8 angles and has cashed over 90%. There is also a World Cup play on ESPN. Free MLB Totals system below-


On Tuesday the free MLB Totals Play is on the over in the LA. Dodgers at Detroit Tigers game. Rotation numbers 977/978 at 7:05 eastern. There are several angles pointing to this game playing over the total tonight.The Tigers have played over in 22 of 31 at home off a home loss by 2 or more runs, 23 of 29 off 3+ losses, 7 of 8 as a home favorite from -100 to -125. The Dodgers are averaging over 5 runs per game the past week and have flown over 6 of 7 times as a road dg off a road favored win by 5 or more runs. There is even a solid database system here that plays to the over for home favorites off a home loss that scored 4 or less runs with no errors, vs an opponent like the Dodgers that are off a road favored win by 5 or more runs. This system has flown over 25 of 37 times and 17 of 21 if the total is 8 or less, Verlander for Detroit has gone over in 6 of 8 at home with a pedestrian like 4.40 era. He will face LA Lefty H. Ryu who could struggle with a solid Detroit lineup that has played over in 9 of the last 12 at home vs leftys. Look for this game to go over the total. The Tuesday card has the Inter league Play of the Month from a Never lost system and 2 big MLB Totals. One totals system is 100% since 2004 and averages over 12 runs, the other has 8 Angles and cashes over 90%. The World Cup Power Play is also on the card. Inbox to Jump on now and Flatten your book like a new Driveway with cutting edge data and systems you wont see any where else. For the free play take the over in the Dodgers at Tigers game. GC

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MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers


We saw the Los Angeles Dodgers (+102) get on a similar hot streak last season, a run that led them straight into the postseason and NLCS.

It looks like they're up to their same tricks. Don Mattingly's bunch is 6-4 in their last 10, and on June 8, they were 9.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants. Today they're a game up and leading the division.

Much of that turnaround can be attributed to Matt Kemp, who has hit .313/.382/.495 over the last 30 days. Tonight's starter, Hyun-jin Ryu, also deserves plenty of credit as he's been very solid this season, posting a 3.08 ERA with 7.57 K/9.

The first-place Detroit Tigers present a tough matchup tonight, but they've lost three straight and will send Justin Verlander to the hill. In years past, a Verlander start meant a Tigers win more often than not. While Verlander has been better over his last three starts, he still hasn't been the ace we were spoiled by from 2009-2012.

The play is on the Dodgers sending the Tigers to their fourth straight loss.

Tuesday's selections

Dodgers (Ryu) +102 at Tigers

Nationals (Fister) -139 vs. Orioles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

FIFA World Cup

Brazil +171 over Germany

(Risking 21 units - To Win: 35.91)

Tuesday, July 8, 4:00 PM EST. A scintillating rematch of the 2002 World Cup, the Brazilians will look to keep their tournament champion aspirations alive without their best player, Neymar. Brazil has been valiant as a host country and the Yellow and Blue would love nothing more than to defend their country and go off as champions, as well as hosts. Standing in their way is the football machine of Germany.

These two teams are quite familiar with each other and Germany is no stranger to competing at this superior level. The Germans have qualified for the last four consecutive semifinals. However, Germany has been sent off in their last two efforts as the third place winner. Undoubtedly, this is an impressive feat and a great resume builder for the Deutschland. However, Joachim Loew would only hope to push this German side to the next level and capture their first World Cup in 24 years.

The Brazilians have been galvanized by the loss of their heroic star Neymar but with a rabid home crowd standing behind them, the Brazilians figure to dig down even deeper. Such a feat would be fitting for a country that has been torn apart by politics and dissension. Now, the Yellow and Blue stand as one and it would be hard to bet against Brazil in any contest from here on out. The key to this match-up will be how the German full backs handle the advances of Oscar and Hulk, who have both been brilliant in their campaign.


FIFA World Cup

Netherlands +134 over Argentina


BEST LINE: Pinnacle +134 (Asian Handicap)

(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.34)

This is an (Asian) Handicap wager. In other words, if the game is tied after regulation time, it’s a push.

Lionel Messi is the best footballer in the world and there is no disputing that. However, the Dutch are on a mission and seemingly cannot be stopped. Despite all the adversities and peril that has befallen the Dutch, they seemingly have the Luck of the Irish. The Netherlands escaped Mexico, scoring two goals in the final ten minutes of their fixture, capped off by a penalty kick that was certainly controversial. Nevertheless, Wesley Sneijder has been a catalyst for the Lions, as he has struck more wood than a carpenter. The Dutch overcame the mighty Ticos of Costa Rica in a penalty shootout, despite harsh luck and an apparent kismet from the Soccer Gods for Costa Rica. The Dutch have been contemplating and pontificating over their 2010 defeat against Spain and seemingly it has been the motivating force behind this Robin Van Persie led squad. The Dutch have another great playmaker in Arjen Robben, who has also been an offensive creator for this club throughout the tournament.

There is no clear cut favorite for this fixture. Argentina is a significant favorite in this because of the geographical orientation of the FIFA tournament and the play of one, Lionel Messi. However, Argentina has lived dangerously throughout the tournament and seems like a human team subtracting number 10 from the equation. Argentina has not had any convincing results throughout the tournament and it’s for that reason we give the Dutch a great chance to win this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Florida @ ARIZONA

ARIZONA/Florida over 9 -104

(Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Vidal Nuno started 2014 in the Yankees bullpen but injuries soon pressed him into the starting role in which he’s been the very definition of

Vidal Nuno started 2014 in the Yankees bullpen but injuries soon pressed him into the starting role in which he’s been the very definition of unpredictable: 36% dominant starts, 36% disasters. In 14 outings, Nuno has a 4.89 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 6.7 K’s/9—surface stats comparable to those belonging to McCarthy, the pitcher he was traded for. The uh-oh contrast is with the 15 HR each has given up but Nuno’s have been surrendered in 32 fewer innings pitched. With Chase Field only slightly less accommodating to power hitters than Yankee Stadium, it’s unreasonable to expect the lefthander’s 43% fly-ball tilt (and 1.7 hr/9) to yield better results in his new home park. Unless you are a proponent of the “change of scenery” theory in which traded players are invigorated, this doesn’t have the look of an upgrade for the Diamondbacks. Nuno’s low 33% groundball rate does not play well at this venue and Arizona backers should approach Nuno with caution.

Brad Hand did not make the most of his two starts in April, as both ended in disasters and he was quickly removed from the rotation. After spending more than a month in the bullpen, he was sent to AAA-New Orleans to be stretched out and start games. He made four starts down there, going 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 22/9 K/BB in 22 IP. His career 5.40 xERA and 35%/20%/45% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates are not indicators he will have success this time around either. In 29 innings split between the pen and starting, Hand has walked 17 batters, a 6.46 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. One of these two teams may go over this number all on their own.


Chicago @ CINCINNATI (gm 2)

Chicago +118 over CINCINNATI

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)

Listed pitchers must go. Cincinnati has called up David Holmberg to start the second game. This will be Holmberg’s second career start, following his August 2013 debut. The 2014 season has been his first Triple-A action and things are not trending in the right direction. He’s lost some of his previously excellent command and feel for the strike zone. To date, Holmberg has a career-high 4.5 BB/9 along with a career-low strikeout rate of 6.1 K’s/9. Holmberg is a tall, physical lefty who showed great progress between the ’11 and ’13 seasons. Prior to his recent poor performance, the scouting book on him was a pitcher with plus command who works downhill throwing lots of strikes and inducing grounders. He comes at hitters with an overhand delivery that has some deception. His three-pitch arsenal includes a low-90s mph sinking fastball, an average slider and a plus change-up. Holmberg repeats his mechanics well with good mound presence and pitch sequencing. He’s expected to be with the Reds for just this one start and then should have the opportunity to make the necessary adjustments at Triple-A to get things trending back in the right direction. Holmberg has made only 10 starts at Louisville because he missed time between April and May and May and June with a couple of nagging injuries. Scouting reports tend to vary quite a bit on Holmberg. Some love his solid command and project added velocity for his large frame, while others are leery of control lefties who dominate lower levels with a plus change-up. Over 647 career innings, Holmberg owns a 3.53 ERA, 7.9 K’s/9 and 2.7 BB/9. At Louisville in 10 starts this year his numbers get a lot uglier. In 10 games started at Triple-AAA Louisville, covering just 44.1 innings, Holmberg is 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA, a .324 oppBA and a BB/K split of 22/30. Even against the Cubbies, this is not a guy you want to spot a tag with.

For the first week of the Pacific Coast League season, Chicago Cubs pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada was outstanding. He went 13.1 innings over two starts, allowing just one run on seven hits, issued one walk and he struck out 18(!). Unsurprisingly, then, the lefty was named the PCL Pitcher of the Week. He followed up the hot start with another eight innings, allowing one earned run on three hits and one walk. He struck out five. Wada is absolutely dominating at AAA, to put it mildly. Under normal circumstances, the hype meter would have turned up on a “prospect” like Wada, with folks wondering, “Hey, when are we going to see that guy get a crack in the bigs?” Thing is, circumstances are unlike most. For one thing – the biggest thing – he’s already 33. That’s not prospect age by any stretch and the fact that he hasn’t yet pitched in the big leagues would normally count as a strike against a guy that age. But there’s a however to the however: Wada pitched for a decade professionally in Japan before coming over to the U.S. He would have made his MLB debut around age 31, which is relatively normal for a Japanese pitcher coming over to MLB (dominant Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma, for example, made his debut at 31, and Kyuji Fujikawa came to the Cubs at 32). He’s not so old, then, in that regard. Wada came over on a two-year deal with the Orioles and almost immediately needed Tommy John surgery. It took him the normal recovery time, and when he was ready to pitch again, the Orioles opted to hold him down at AAA (where, by late 2013, reports had him pitching very well). The Cubs got him on a minor league deal after the season and after 16 starts at Triple AAA Iowa, he’s ready. The Pacific Coast League is known for extremely friendly hitters parks and all Wada has done is post a 2.66 ERA with a BB/K split of 26/105 in 105 innings. Wada has ice in his veins and after such a long wait to finally pitch in the majors, don’t be surprised if he dominates and Reds lineup that can easily be dominated. Wada is such a better option here.


Pittsburgh @ ST. LOUIS

ST. LOUIS -1½ +180 over Pittsburgh

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 200.00)

Sometimes you are on the right side of a game but poor luck bites you where the sun doesn’t shine. That was certainly the case last night when the Pirates were spraying balls all over the yard on Adam Wainwright but failed to score. The Pirates were hot coming into this series opener but a loss like that is frustrating and often carries over into the next game. We now find a very sneaky play by spotting 1½-runs and taking back big juice with Carlos Martinez against Vance Worley. Worley is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA but that extremely small sample size has him way overvalued. Worley had a very forgettable 2013. The only positives coming out of his 7.21 ERA, 1.99 WHIP year were a career high in GB% (47%) and a slightly improved walk rate. Demoted to Triple-A Rochester, Worley was subsequently shut down in July with shoulder inflammation and did not return. His 13.50 ERA in spring 2014 opened the door to starting fresh with a new club. At Triple-A Indianapolis this year before the call-up, Worley went 3-2 with a 4.30 ERA in seven starts. His walk rate is down but so is his groundball rate, which now stands at 41%. Current Cardinals have hit .367 against Worley in just 30 career AB’s. Still, this is a pitcher that’s getting a little too much credit and that provides us with this value play.

Carlos Martinez is the opposite of Worley in that he’s not getting enough credit because of his misleading surface stats. Martinez has appeared in 34 games this year but has only made four starts, as he slowly transitions from reliever to starter. Martinez is much better suited to start. This talented youngster peaked in September of last year, parlaying a 3.48/3.13 ERA/xERA over 9 appearances into a post-season roster spot. The Cardinals said that a starting role would be in his future and that future is now. It's only four starts but Martinez isn't showing signs of running out of gas in the later innings despite tossing 59, 74, 82 and 88 pitches. You’ll notice the progressive increase in pitches thrown. His swing and miss rate is at an elite 13% and he's inducing grounders at an off-the-charts rate of 57%. The wildness in his first 2014 start (four BB) didn't happen in the second start (1 BB) and he’s allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts. Martinez has not been taken yard in any of his four starts and has not been taken yard in his last 13 appearances. You can spot -117 in this game and still get value. It’s a good bet. We’re going to get a little greedy and spot the 1½-runs with a huge take-back because Carlos Martinez is ready for the show and has a chance to absolutely dominate. The same can’t be said for Vance Worley and his 4% swing and miss rate.


Toronto @ L.A. ANGELS

L.A. ANGELS -1½ +136 over Toronto

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)

The Blue Jays are not only cold as ice with just two wins in their past 10 games and just six wins over their past 20 but they have lost five straight and have scored two runs or fewer in all five games. Furthermore, they are brutally awful against lefties and will face another one here in Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs is 4-4 in 13 starts with a 4.13 ERA. However, he threw a beauty against the South Side at U.S. Cellular in his last start after spending the previous month in the minors. Let's hope his frequent flyer account is in good standing, as he made no less than seven round trips from Arizona to exotic minor league destinations over the past two seasons. That toughens a guy up. Skaggs has shown flashes of brilliance, but his dominant start/disaster start split % highlight his current feast-or-famine ways. Still just 22, still a bright future, Skaggs is still very much a work in progress but his 53% groundball rate and recent improvements in all other areas reveal he’s close. Against these reeling Blue Jays, he has another great opportunity.

R.A. Dickey has posted some mediocre stats after 18 starts (4.10 ERA, 1.36 WHIP). His base skills show that poor command has been the issue with an average of four walks per game. His horrible skills while pitching from the stretch have torpedoed his overall skills, as he has the fourth-worst skills in MLB with runners on base. R.A. Dickey is not an enigma. He throws knuckleballs and if they’re dancing he has a chance. If they are not, he has little chance and now he’ll face one of the hottest clubs in the game. It’s also worth noting that Dickey is 1-6 on the road with a 4.41 ERA and for the Blue Jays, the All-Star break can’t get here soon enough.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Behind The Bets

MLB

Cincinnati Reds (Game 1)/Atlanta Braves ML parlay

Los Angeles Dodgers +105

Kansas City Royals -113

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Wunderdog Sports

Free Pick

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals 8:15 PM Eastern

Pick: Game Total UNDER 8 -115

No team has gotten more mileage out of their pitching staff than the St. Louis Cardinals over the last month. They shutout Pittsburgh last night 2-0, and it was their 7th shutout since June 7th, just a month of games. The Cards have also held nine other opponents to 2 runs or fewer. Pittsburgh is certainly capable of matching them on the mound, as the Pirates have allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. St. Louis has played to an 8-1-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher, and are 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 games vs. a winning team. The Pirates have seen just 6 of their last 21 road games vs. a winning team make it OVER the total. Both teams have shown mediocre offenses with stellar pitching, whgich is a recipe for a low-scoring game. This one stays UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino

Today's Selections

MLB

Cincinnati Reds (gm1)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Seattle Mariners

Under 10.5 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies



WNBA

Indiana Fever +3

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Linesheet Group


Daily Dog Parlay

New York Mets +135
Cleveland Indians +145
Chicago White Sox +150

Grand Slam Picks

Texas Rangers -140

Los Angeles Angels -160

Oakland Athletics -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 10-0 since August 09, 2013 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

Vance Worley has produced a team record of 8-0 (+$800) following a starter where he allowed four or fewer hits.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Mets are 1-12 ($+1,088) since August 22, 2007 as a home dog when they are off a walk off win.

CHOICE TREND:

The Cardinals are 10-0 since June 05, 2011 as a home favorite after a win that was tied after six innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Johnny Cueto starts the Reds are 19-3 since June 22, 2011 as a home favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1410.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

3-Unit Play. #653 Take Indiana (+3) over Tulsa (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports


3-unit Play Take #969 Houston Astros (+125) over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

Soccer
3* Play. Take Germany (-115) to Qualify over Brazil (Tuesday, July 8 @ 4 PM EDT)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UNDER Umpire Streakers

1 Unit #973 MIN/SEA Under 7 +100 Danley 2 Over/8 Under L10gms 80%

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Sports Handicapper King

MLB

Atlanta Braves


World Cup

Germany -110 no draw bet


Freeloader

Washington Nationals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

10* Atlanta Braves -155

8* Washington Nationals -145

7* Milwaukee Brewers -175