7-23-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Tampa Bay +105

Indians/Twins under 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play WED Washington w/ Strasburg -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Adam Wainwright “piped” a few too many pitches to the Rays Tuesday night, enabling Hondo to come away with a big score that reduced his NRN (nasty red number) to 1,400 piersalls.

Wednesday night: Mr. Aitch will jump on the Bosawx bandwagon for a 10-unit play on Buchholz to burn the Jays.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | NEW YORK at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOS ANGELES) after allowing 70 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 1.7 units )

WNBA | NEW YORK at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Any team vs the money line (LOS ANGELES) off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less
28-11 since 1997. ( 71.8% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | CONNECTICUT at WASHINGTON
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after scoring 70 points or more in 2 straight games
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Reds at Brewers


Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-144, 7.5)

The Cincinnati Reds will attempt to avoid a winless road trip upon resuming play after the All-Star break when they close a three-game series in Milwaukee against the Brewers on Wednesday. The Reds have lost five straight games – scoring 11 total runs – as they have staggered coming out of the break. Milwaukee has put a stretch in which it lost 11 of 12 in the rear-view mirror as Tuesday’s 4-3 walk-off victory was its fourth in six games.

Brewers All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy hit two solo homers – including the game-winning blast in the ninth – Tuesday for his first homers since July 4. Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez hit back-to-back solo shots in the first inning and Braun has gone 16-for-39 with two homers and eight RBIs during a 10-game hitting streak. The Reds have lost eight consecutive road games since winning at San Francisco on June 29.

TV: 2:10 p.m. ET, MLB Network, FSN Ohio (Cincinnati)

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Brewers as -152 favorites, but that has moved to -144. The total has held at 7.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Reds (-159), Brewers (-181)

INJURY REPORT: Reds - SS Zack Cozart (Questionable, finger), 1B Joey Votto (15-day DL, oblique), 2B Brandon Phillips (15-day DL, thumb).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "With Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips sidelined, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Reds. The Brew Crew are right where they want to be entering the break, but how long can they keep it up?" Sean Murphy.


PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Mike Leake (7-8, 3.63 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Kyle Lohse (10-4, 3.16)

Leake has allowed four runs in each of his last two outings and has given up 37 hits in 25 2/3 innings over his past four turns. He has split two 2014 decisions with the Brewers and recorded the victory June 15 despite being touched up for four runs and nine hits over five innings. He is 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA in seven career starts against Milwaukee.

Lohse snapped a three-start winless stretch by defeating Washington on July 18. He allowed just one run in seven innings while notching the victory but gave up a season-worst 10 hits. Lohse is 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA in two starts against Cincinnati this season and possesses a 5-5 mark and 3.01 ERA over 17 career outings against the Reds.


TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Reds are 0-8 in their last eight road games.
* Over is 11-5 in umpire Chris Segal's last 16 games behind home plate.
* Brewers are 4-1 in Lohses last five starts as a favorite.

CONSENSUS: 59.78 percent of wagers are backing the Brewers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB betting cheat sheet: Jays, Red Sox Continue Over Trend

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the mid-week major league games:

Jays, Red Sox Continue Over Trend

A late two-run homer from Stephen Drew didn't mean much to the Red Sox in a 7-3 loss to Toronto, but it did send the total Over for the fifth straight time in the head-to-head series. The teams are 6-1-1 O/U for the season.

Jesse a Giant Favorite

Oakland right-hander Jesse Chavez will look to continue his hot streak as a favorite Wednesday, entering at -255 when the Athletics host the Houston Astros. Chavez is 5-0 against the moneyline in his last five starts as a favorite, with three of those results coming at home.

Gee No Whiz vs. Brewers

New York Mets right-hander Dillon Gee may have his hands full Thursday night as he faces the host Milwaukee Brewers. Gee has yet to beat the Brewers in his career, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts.

Pitching Notes

* San Francisco ace Madison Bumgarner hopes to maintain his dominance away from AT&T Park on Wednesday as he leads the Giants (-140, 7.5) into Philadelphia. Bumgarner is 7-2 with a scintillating 1.94 ERA in 11 road starts so far this season.

* New York Yankees righty Brandon McCarthy has adjusted well to his move to the Bronx as he prepares to face the visiting Texas Rangers on Thursday. McCarthy was the worst value pitcher in baseball while with Arizona, but is 2-0 against the moneyline in two starts since being traded.

Hitting Notes

* Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera is heating up, recording three three-hit games in his last four outings to raise his average to .309. The Blue Jays are 22-15 against the moneyline and 21-16 O/U when Cabrera records a multi-hit game entering Wednesday's game against Boston.

* San Francisco catcher Buster Posey has owned his career matchup with Philadephia lefty Cole Hamels, who gets the call Thursday against the visiting Giants. Posey is 7-for-11 versus Hamels, with four doubles and a home run.

Totals Streak

New York Yankees (7-1 O/U): The pitching has thrived even without injured ace CC Sabathia, limiting opponents to three runs or fewer in seven of the last eight games. The recent Under streak has dropped the Yankees to 43-55-1 O/U for the season.

Prop of the Day

It's one of the longest shots of the day, but it may be worth taking a flyer on the Nationals and Rockies to play to a push (+1,000). The Rockies rank second in the majors with nine pushes, while the Nationals and Pirates are tied with eight apiece.

Injury Notes

* Houston Astros oufielder George Springer missed his second straight game with knee and quad injuries. The Astros have struggled without their hard-hitting rookie, going 1-4 against the moneyline and 1-3-1 O/U in his absence entering Tuesday's game against host Oakland.

* The Colorado Rockies have placed shortstop Troy Tulowitzki on the 15-day disabled list with a left hip flexor strain. Tulowitzki has fought through a variety of ailments this season, missing time earlier in the year with quad and groin injuries.


Weather Watch

* Wind at U.S. Cellular Field will blow out to right field at 14 mph for Wednesday's game between the host Chicago White Sox (-102, 7.5) and the Kansas City Royals. The White Sox were just 2-6 O/U under similar conditions in 2013, with teams averaging a paltry 1.62 homers per game.

Umpire Note of the Day

Over is 7-1-2 in umpire Paul Emmel's last 10 games behind home plate. Emmel will call the balls and strikes for Wednesday's showdown between the host Colorado Rockies and the Washington Nationals.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 10:10 p.m. ET Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Not many runs in recent Reds-Brewers meetings

The Under is 5-0 in the past five meetings between the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers. The two N.L. Central rivals finish up their three-game set at Miller Park Wednesday.

The past five matchups between the two teams have yielded a total of 27 runs - which equates to an average of 5.4 runs per game.

Mike Leake is slated to get the start for the Reds while Kyle Lohse will counter for the Brewers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers


Dodgers at Pirates – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
LAD: Haren (8-7, 4.30 ERA)
PIT: Liriano (1-7, 4.43 ERA)

Series recap: These two teams split the first two games, as the Pirates held off the Dodgers last night, 12-7 to cash as -115 favorites. Los Angeles captured Monday’s opener, 5-2 as a short underdog, but the Pirates own a 4-2 record against the Dodgers this season.

What to watch for: The Dodgers have performed well in series finales of late, winning seven of the past nine in this situation. Los Angeles is winless in Haren’s last three starts, while the Dodgers are 6-2 to the ‘over’ in his past eight trips to the mound. One of Liriano’s best outings of the season came at Chavez Ravine in late May, as the southpaw tossed 5.2 innings of scoreless baseball in a 2-1 road victory.

Giants at Phillies – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
SF: Bumgarner (11-7, 3.38 ERA)
PHI: Burnett (6-9, 4.08 ERA)

Series recap: The Giants have remained hot in the second half by capturing the opening two contests at Citizens Bank Park to improve to 4-1 the last five games. On Tuesday, San Francisco held off Philadelphia in 14 innings, 9-6 to pick up its fourth straight road victory in this series dating back to last July.

What to watch for: San Francisco is nearly automatic with Bumgarner on the mound away from AT&T Park, as the team has put together an 8-3 mark in his 11 road starts, including a blowout of Miami in his last outing. Also, the Giants have hit the ‘over’ in five consecutive starts made by Bumgarner, as the first two games of this series has seen the ‘over’ connect. The Phillies have dropped eight of their last nine home contests, while the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Burnett’s past four trips to the mound.

Red Sox at Blue Jays – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
BOS: Buchholz (5-5, 5.46 ERA)
TOR: Dickey (7-10, 3.95 ERA)

Series recap: These two clubs have exchanged blowouts in the first two contests, as Toronto topped Boston on Tuesday, 7-3 as +110 underdogs. The victory snapped Boston’s five-game winning streak, while the Jays won for the third time in four contests. The ‘over’ has cashed in five straight meetings between these division rivals, while the victorious squad in all eight matchups this season has scored at least six runs.

What to watch for: Toronto has dropped six of the last seven starts made by Dickey, while the ‘under’ is 7-1 in the knuckleballer’s past eight trips to the mound. The Sox have won each of Buchholz’s previous three away starts, while Boston owns an 8-0 record in Buchholz’s last eight starts against Toronto at Rogers Center since 2009.

Rays at Cardinals – 7:15 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
TB: Cobb (5-6, 4.08 ERA)
STL: Lynn (11-6, 3.13 ERA)

Series recap: The Rays stayed red-hot after a horrible June as Tampa Bay destroyed St. Louis last night, 7-2 to cash as +135 underdogs. Tampa Bay has won six consecutive games, while improving to 12-1 in its past 13 road contests.

What to watch for: Everything is going right for the Rays at the moment, who look for their sixth straight win in Game 2 of a series on Wednesday. The Cardinals have struggled at home against National League foes, posting a 1-5 record this season. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in Lynn’s past eight trips to the mound, while St. Louis owns an 8-3 record in his 11 home starts.

Orioles at Angels – 10:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
BAL: Tillman (7-5, 4.03 ERA)
LAA: Weaver (10-6, 3.43 ERA)

Series recap: The Angels suffered consecutive home losses for the first time in over two months after Baltimore defeated Los Angeles on Tuesday, 4-2. The Orioles have cashed in the underdog role twice in this series, while the ‘under’ of 8 ½ has hit each time.

What to watch for: Baltimore has won four of its past six road series finales, while the O’s go for just their second road sweep of the season (first came at Tampa Bay in May). The Angels have compiled a 6-0 record in Weaver’s last six starts, while the Halos are 8-2 in his past 10 outings at Angel Stadium. Los Angeles has drilled the ‘under’ in seven of the previous nine home contests, but has scored three runs or less four times in the past five games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'Numbers favor Angels'

MLB Handicappers taking a look at the matchup between Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles Wednesday in Anaheim will discover a slew of positive betting numbers in favor of LAA. Despite recent set backs, the Angels have enjoyed home cookin' winning 14 of their last 18 in Anaheim and 19 of the past 24 in front of the friendly crowd. This being the final game of the series should get the attention of MLB handicappers keeping close tabs on LAA. The Halos are on a smart 12-4 stretch at home this season in game three's. Those digging deeper to get a better take on the pitching matchup will have noted Halos are on a 6-0 overall streak with Jered Weaver (10-6 3.43 ERA), have an 8-2 spurt at home with the hurler and are 6-3 as home fave off a loss the previous night handing the ball to the right-hander. The clincher, that should have MLB handicappers rushing to the window to make a play on LAA - Weaver and the month of July go together like baseball handicapping and baseball betting. The Angels have won 21 of Weaver's last 22 home games during the month of July.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Powerplay wins

cleveland -120
pittsburgh -135
san francisco -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

MLB | CLEVELAND at MINNESOTA
Play Against – All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MINNESOTA) terrible offensive team – scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 8 runs or more
170-100 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.0% | 59.8 units )
27-20 this year. ( 57.4% | 4.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets

MLB | HOUSTON at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 113-59 (+55.6 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (5.1) , OPPONENT (3.8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes | MLB Money Line
free pick
913 CLE (-126) 5dimes vs 914 MINAnalysis:

MLB - 913 Cleveland Indians @ 914 Minnesota Twins


(Starting Pitchers: T. Bauer vs. A. Swarzak)

***FREE PREMIUM Play***




***Early Start***

Last night, we cashed w/ CLE both ML & RL plays as our Top Play of the day, and I'm backing them once again today in this early contest.

CLE will send Trevor Bauer to the mound and I expect him to be decent vs. MIN's offense. Bauer has been solid and consistent all season long, but lately he has been even better w/ 2.27 FIP & 3.73 xFIP numbers in this current month (4 starts). Even though his 1-3 record & 5.29 ERA numbers on the road aren't pretty, note that his L2 road starts were @LAD & @DET (two super tough matchups), and he was decent allowing 3 ER's in both contests.

On the other end, I expect CLE offense to make some damage vs. Swarzak.

CLE has some nice hitting numbers against him: he had a 1-5 career mark w/ 7.34 ERA while allowing CLE batters to hit .343 against him in 16 appearances.

X factor IMO: his career numbers vs. LH batters are just atrocious w/ .330 wOBA + 4.70 FIP + 5.00 xFIP!

Well, like I've said yesterday, CLE is ranked #4 vs. RHP's this season, and their lineup will be loaded w/ LH bats, ready to make some damage today, and obviously, I'm taking CLE once again today.




Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ T. Bauer) @ -126 / 1.79 on 5 Dimes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

The Tampa Bay Rays seem to do this every season, falling behind the 8-ball early in the season and making a furious rally in the second half to gain a playoff spot. The Rays give the ball to Alex Cobb (5-6, 4.08) tonight against Lance Lynn (11-6, 3.13) and the St. Louis Cardinals. This line seems really, really fishy to us with Lynn currently on a three-game winning streak and pitching well. There are some really interesting trend lines here tonight that are worth noting...The Rays are 14-2 in their last 16 road games and 19-7 in their last 26 games overall. They are also a perfect 4-0 in Cobb's last four road starts and the Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last five interleague starts. This seems like a really good spot to back the visitors as they lots of confidence after beating Wainright last night in St. Louis. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - TAMPA BAY RAYS (+100)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CORY KLUGE / Inside Vegas Sharp Info Plays

2 MLB Sharp Plays

Colorado +150 ML

Philly +130 ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Kyle’s Pick(s)

2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox – UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Shields vs. Quintana
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)

Wainwright looked like he was still on break last night, getting hit hard in the 5th inning en route to an easy win for the Rays. Early afternoon action for us on Wednesday which I am going to try to take advantage of.

This will be another season in which the Indians, White Sox, and Royals play out for 2nd in the AL Central. The Tigers should ultimately run away with the crown again. Outside of Detroit there isn’t any offense that can compete with them. James Shields and Jose Quintana have identical stats of late. Both pitched 19.2 innings their last three starts, and they both have the same ERA of 2.29. The UNDER was 5-1 in those games. The Royals have had a heck of a time trying to hit left-handed pitching, most notably recently where they are hitting only .194 against them the past ten games. Whereas the White Sox are hitting .321 against lefties, but just .239 against right-handers. Quintana has allowed less runners to reach base, 0.71 WHIP, but Shields hasn’t been far behind with a 1.02. Quintana has given up only 5 runs in his last four starts. The UNDER has cashed 6-1 in the Royals last seven games. Likewise, the White Sox UNDER went 5-1 their last six. A 2 unit play for me on the UNDER 7.5 Wednesday afternoon in Chicago.