7-26-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: CFL Doubleheader

Ottawa Redblacks at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-7, 47.5)

Redblacks quarterback Henry Burris faces Hamilton for the first time since he was let go after two seasons with the Tiger-Cats. Zach Collaros, Burris’ replacement in Hamilton, remains out with a head injury suffered in Week 2, leaving the Tiger-Cats' offence in the hands of Jeremiah Masoli, who is completing 40 percent of his passes and has thrown two interceptions. Masoli might have his best chance yet for a good game against an Ottawa defence that allows a league-worst 287 passing yards per contest.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at the Ti-Cats -5 where it stayed for several days, but on Friday the line quickly moved to Hamilton -7. The total opened as 48 and has since only shifted down half a point to 47.5.

INJURY REPORT: Redblacks - DB Reggie Jones (Questionable) Tiger-Cats - DE Brandon Thurmond (Questionable)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Redblacks are certainly in a bit of a letdown spot after winning their home opener over Toronto last week, but that's more than reflected in the line. Hamilton is in desperation mode still searching for its first win of the season but it's offense remains in a state of flux with Dan LeFevour getting the nod under centre. Leaning to taking the points in this spot." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Big line move during week on Hamilton, going from -4.5 to -7.5. We've seen 79 percent of cash & 83 percent of bets on the Ti-Cats." - Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag

ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (1-2): Kicker Brett Maher scored all 18 points in the first win in Ottawa’s franchise history. Defensive back Jerrell Gavins is off to an impressive start in his first CFL season with 13 tackles, one sack and one interception. Running back Chevon Walker will also be facing his former team after spending his first two seasons with Hamilton.

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (0-3): Wide receiver Andy Fantuz caught a team-leading seven passes for 59 yards in his season debut in Week 4. Running back C.J. Gable is off to a slow start with 121 combined yards, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. Linebacker Simoni Lawrence leads the team with 16 tackles and has one sack.

TRENDS:

*Tiger-Cats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
*Under is 2-0 in Redblacks last 2 games.
*Under is 10-2 in Tiger-Cats last 12 games overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 56.9 percent of the Covers users are taking the Ti-Cats -5.5 with 52 percent on the Over.



Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7, 50.5)

The Saskatchewan Roughriders emerge from their bye week looking to snap a two-game losing skid when they host the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday. Toronto is mired in a two-game skid of its own and is 0-2 on the road as the team deals with injuries to key starters on offence. The Argonauts defeated Saskatchewan in Toronto in Week 2 and a Roughriders victory at home could help turn around a rocky start to their Grey Cup defending season.

Argonauts quarterback Ricky Ray leads the league with 1,280 passing yards but will be without his top target once again as slotback Chad Owens is expected to miss at least two more games with a foot injury. Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant is off to a sluggish start with a completion percentage of 55.3 for 622 yards, but his five touchdown passes are just one behind Ray. Toronto forced three turnovers in its victory over the Roughriders, including two of the Argonauts’ three interceptions.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: The initial line saw the Roughriders -6, but bettors money has shifted the line to -7. The total opened at 49.5, but has jumped a full point to 50.5.

INJURY REPORT: Argos - SB Chad Owens (Out), LB Jonathan Hood (Questionable), SB Jason Barnes (Questionable) Roughriders - OL Corey Watman (Questionable)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Toronto is injury-ravaged as it heads to Saskatchewan to challenge the Riders in Saturday. There's no question the Riders will be fired up coming off their bye week, and remembering the thumping they took at the hands of the Argos in Toronto earlier this season. Tough not to look the Riders way given Toronto's injury situation on offense but not a lot of value on the table here." - Covers Experts' Sean Murphy

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Saskatchewan has seen a slight move and has gone from -6 to -7. 60 percents of bets backing the Roughriders -7." - Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (1-3): Slotback Andre Durie and wide receiver Jason Barnes are also on the injured list, leaving Ray with limited reliable passing options. Defensive back Jalil Carter leads the defence with 17 tackles and has three sacks. No Toronto player has rushed for more than 100 yards, with running back Curtis Steele posting a team-leading 97.

ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (1-2): Saskatchewan added running back Will Ford to its practice roster Tuesday, one week after releasing running back Hugh Charles. Running back Anthony Allen should see another chance as a starter after recording 231 rushing yards over his first three CFL games. The Roughriders are tied for second in the league with 14 sacks despite only playing three games, with John Chick (four), Ricky Foley (three) and Tearrius George (three) leading the way.

TRENDS:

*Argonauts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 5-1 in Roughriders last 6 games following a ATS loss.
*Argonauts are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Saskatchewan.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 50.3 percent of the Covers bettors are taking the Argos +7 with 55 percent on the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROCHESTERTITANS

UFC

kyle kingsbury +145 (5units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FurysFightPicks


4* parlay at -111

Josh Thomson (-225) & Robbie Lawler (-315)


3* parlay at -107

Tim Means (-230) & Bermudez/Guida over 2.5 rounds (-285)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB betting cheat sheet: Lee a strong Over play

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the weekend's major league action:

Nine is Enough

The San Diego Padres (-123, O 7) erupted for a season-high nine runs in the sixth inning en route to a 13-3 thumping of the host Chicago Cubs on Thursday. The Padres have gone Over the total in back-to-back games for just the third time since the end of May.

Simon Sliding?

Cincinnati starter Alfredo Simon will look to bounce back from a rough first outing of the second half as he leads the Reds (-134) against the visiting Washington Nationals. Simon leads the majors in value (+$1,230) but was trounced 7-1 by the Yankees in his first start following the All-Star break.

Over-Lee Predictable

Philadelphia lefty Cliff Lee has been a strong Over play this season as he and the Phillies entertain the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday night. Lee, one of the stingiest hurlers in baseball over the past seven years, is 7-3-1 O/U and has five Overs in his last six outings.

Wainwright to Rebound?

Expect a strong effort from St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright as he faces the host Cubs. Wainwright is coming off a loss to Tampa Bay last time out; the Cardinals have followed all four of their previous losses in Wainwright starts with victories in his next outing.

Pitching Notes

* Toronto left-hander Mark Buehrle has yet to figure out the New York Yankees. Buehrle, whose Blue Jays (+123, 8) visit the Bronx on Friday, is 1-11 with a 5.81 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Yankees.

* Baltimore right-hander Bud Norris looks to continue his red-hot run Saturday as the Orioles visit Seattle. Norris is 5-1 against the moneyline in his last six starts while putting together a five-game Under streak.

* Boston Red Sox righty Jake Peavy carries the worst value in the majors into Sunday's tilt against the Tampa Bay Rays. Peavy is at a dismal $-1,371 for the season, while the Red Sox have lost his last nine starts.

Hitting Notes

* Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts is mired in a lengthy slump, batting just .157 since the end of may to see his average for the season dip to .237. Coincidentally, Bogaerts is a career .237 hitter against the Rays (-134, 6.5), who host Boston on Friday.

* It should come as no surprise that the San Francisco Giants have struggled versus Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw. Members of the Giants roster are hitting a combined .214 in 276 at-bats versus Kershaw, who takes the hill Saturday night.

* Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter may be a good bet to add to his Hall of Fame hit total Sunday against the Blue Jays. Jeter is a career 6-for-11 hitter against Toronto starter JA Happ, with a pair of home runs and three RBIs.

Totals Streak

Cincinnati Reds (0-4 O/U): The Reds enjoyed a much-needed day of rest Thursday after capping a winless six-game road trip with a 5-1 thumping at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati, which scored just 12 runs during the trek, is 45-53-3 O/U for the season.

Prop of the Day

Expect a closely contested affair in St. Petersburg between Boston's Jon Lester and fellow southpaw David Price. Bettors should look at either team to win by exactly one run, with the Red Sox valued at +500 to do so and Tampa Bay set at +325.

Injury Notes

* The New York Yankees may be forced to place first baseman Mark Teixeira on the 15-day disabled list with a lat injury. Teixeira has already missed 25 games this season, with the Yankees going 13-12 SU, 11-13-1 O/U and earning 154 units in those contests.

* Minnesota Twins hurler Phil Hughes survived a scare after taking a liner off his right shin Thursday against the Chicago White Sox. X-rays came back negative on Hughes, who left in the fourth inning but remains fourth in the majors in money earned so far in 2014 (+$818).

Weather Watch

* Wind at Wrigley Field will blow out to left field at 11 mph for Friday's game between the host Cubs and the Cardinals. Teams have combined to go 2-9 O/U over the previous three seasons with the wind blowing out to left.

* Philadelphia fans will be treated to wind blowing out to center field at 9 mph Saturday as the Phillies entertain the Arizona Diamondbacks. The home side won just seven of 20 games under similar wind conditions in 2013, with a 12-7-1 O/U.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 3 a.m. ET Friday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dominant road pitcher takes to visting mound again
Justin Hartling

The Oakland Athletics will be sending one of the top road pitchers to the mound in Sonny Gray Saturday. Gray has led the A's to a stellar 8-2 record in his past 10 starts on the road.

Gray has only given up 16 runs during those 10 starts and has allowed less than two runs 50 percent of the time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

White Sox ace dominant against Twins

Justin Hartling

Chris Sale takes to the mound Saturday against a team in which he has had extended success. The Chicago White Sox have gone 5-1 in Sale's last six starts against the Minnesota Twins.

Sale has only given up two runs per game on average against the Twins. Not only has Sal kept the runs down, but he has recorded more strikeouts than he has allowed hits (31 hits vs. 37 K's).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Slumping Cardinals turn to weak option
Justin Hartling

The St. Louis Cardinals went into the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak and will look to rebound when they send Shelby Miller to the mound. Unfortunately, The Cardinals have dropped the last five games that Miller started.

Those past five starts has seen miller give up an average of five runs per game with a mere 13 strikeouts total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lee keeping the streak alive versus Diamondbacks
Justin Hartling

Cliff Lee may be a trade commodity whose stock is about to go up. In Lee's last four appearances against the Arizona Diamondbacks, his Philadelphia Phillies are a perfect 4-0.

Lee has only allowed 11 runs in those four outings (2.75 per game).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockies pitcher not inspiring confidence
Justin Hartling

The Colorado Rockies will send Tyler Matzek to the mound Saturday. This statement should worry Rockies' supporters as the team has lost Matzek's last seven starts.

Matzek has allowed opposing teams to tee-off on him with five of those seven games seeing the opposing team amass at least seven hits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, JULY 26th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 7/26/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #17
•Soria A Strong Addition To Detroit Bullpen: Dave Dombrowski's latest trade also felt like one of his most predictable. There was simply no way the Detroit general manager was going to sit idly by without addressing his team's bullpen. "We've been working on trying to find someone in the bullpen for an extended period," Dombrowski said. "It's something we've been focused on for a while. For the month of July, at least." The Tigers added one of the game's better relievers in a trade earlier this week, acquiring Joakim Soria from Texas, but that may only be the beginning of a significant overhaul in the way Detroit approaches the late innings.

Manager Brad Ausmus stuck with his usual routine in Thursday night's win over the Los Angeles Angels, using Joba Chamberlain in the eighth and Joe Nathan in the ninth. But with Soria in the fold, Ausmus now has more options. Detroit's bullpen woes are nothing new. The Tigers finally gave up on Jose Valverde as their closer last year, letting Joaquin Benoit handle that role instead. Benoit pitched well, but the grand slam he allowed to Boston's David Ortiz was perhaps the defining moment of baseball's entire postseason in 2013.

Benoit left via free agency, and Detroit signed Nathan, who was coming off a sparkling season with the Rangers. The 39-year-old right-hander has slipped badly this year. Even after striking out the side to close out a 6-4 win Thursday, his ERA was an unsightly 5.73. Nathan has shown mild signs of improvement, posting a 3.68 ERA in his last 15 appearances, striking out 21 in 14 2-3 innings in that span. But statistically, Soria has been better this year than any of Detroit's current relievers - and the Tigers gave up a couple promising young arms to get him. Ausmus says he's keeping Nathan and Chamberlain in their usual roles for now - but Soria's presence means the Detroit manager doesn't have to be overly patient with anyone.

•Yanks Put Capuano On Big League Roster: Left-hander Chris Capuano has been put on the New York Yankees' major league roster, a day after he was acquired from the Colorado Rockies. Capuano will start Saturday against Toronto, with Shane Greene pushed back to Sunday. New York designated right-hander Chris Leroux for assignment Friday to clear a roster spot. The 35-year-old Capuano was 1-1 with a 4.55 ERA in 28 relief appearances for Boston, which released him July 1. He had four starts at Triple-A and Double-A for the Rockies. Capuano, a 2006 NL All-Star, pitched with Arizona, Milwaukee, the New York Mets, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston in parts of 10 major league seasons. Earlier this month, the Yankees obtained pitcher Brandon McCarthy from Arizona and third baseman Chase Headley from San Diego.

•Williams Becomes 31st Rangers Pitcher: Veteran right-hander Jerome Williams is the next on the mound for the Texas Rangers. The Rangers purchased Williams' contract from Triple-A Round Rock on Friday to start the opener of a series against American League West-leading Oakland. Williams was set to be the 52nd different player, and 31st pitcher, used by Texas this season. He was signed by the Rangers two weeks after being released by Houston. To make room on the 25-man roster, outfielder Jake Smolinski was put on the disabled list a bone bruise in his left foot. Left-hander Justin Marks was released to clear a 40-man spot. He was on the disabled list at Round Rock.

Williams starts in place of Nick Tepesch, who got an extra day of rest after having to pitch in the Rangers' 14-inning loss at the New York Yankees on Tuesday night. Tepesch starts Saturday against the Athletics. The 32-year-old Williams is 43-51 with a 4.45 ERA in 181 major league games since 2003 for San Francisco, the Chicago Cubs, Washington, Los Angeles Angels and Houston. Williams was released by the Astros earlier month after going 1-4 with a 6.04 ERA in 26 relief appearances. He was 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in two starts at Round Rock. Smolinski was hitting .389 with three doubles and five RBIs in 11 games since getting called up from Round Rock on July 7. He had started 10 games in a row before fouling a pitch off the inside of his foot in a game Monday night at the New York Yankees.

•Uggla Joins Giants: The San Francisco Giants didn't waste much time calling up Dan Uggla. After signing the former Atlanta Braves second baseman to a minor league contract this week, Uggla was summoned from Triple-A Fresno to San Francisco on Friday along with utility infielder Tony Abreu. The Giants placed Marco Scutaro and Ehire Adrianza on the 15-day disabled list with back and hamstring injuries and designated infielder Nick Noonan and pitcher Jose De Paula for assignment.

A rash of injuries prompted the Giants to make the move with Uggla. They had planned to give him an extended look in the minors but instead was batting seventh in the Giants' order Friday night against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In two Triple-A games with Fresno, Uggla was 2-for-7 with a double and two walks. Before the Braves released the 34-year-old Uggla, he played in 48 games this season and batted .161 with two home runs. He also struggled last year, hitting .179 with 22 homers in 136 games.

Twins To Bring Up Darnell To Start Saturday: The Minnesota Twins plan to bring up left-hander Logan Darnell from Triple-A Rochester to start Saturday against the Chicago White Sox in place of ailing Kyle Gibson. Gibson played long toss from 120 feet and threw in the bullpen Friday. He'll try to start Tuesday in Kansas City. The right-hander originally was scheduled to pitch Wednesday against Cleveland but was scratched the day before due to lower back stiffness. Gibson is 8-8 with a 4.19 ERA in 19 starts.

Darnell, who was 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA for Rochester, will be making his first major league start. A corresponding roster move will be made after Friday's game. Gibson isn't the only Twins pitcher dealing with an injury. Phil Hughes left Thursday's start after taking a line drive off his shin. He felt better Friday and expects to make his next start. Kohl Stewart, the No. 4 overall pick in last year's draft, went on the seven-day disabled list Friday at Class A Cedar Rapids with a sore shoulder, but general manager Terry Ryan said he didn't think it was too serious.
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Betting Notes - Saturday

National League
•Cardinals-Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Cardinals lost last five Miller starts (0-3, 7.40).
--Arrieta is 4-1, 1.64 in his last eight starts.

--St Louis lost its last four games.
--Cubs lost seven of their last nine games.

--Nine of last eleven games at Wrigley Field went over total.

•Nationals-Reds - 4:05 PM
--Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four starts against the Reds.
--Cueto is 5-3 with a 4.58 ERA in nine starts against Washington.

--Washington won seven of its last nine games.
--Reds lost their last seven games.

--Six of last seven Washington road games went over the total.

•Diamondbacks-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Collmenter is 3-1, 2.67 in his last five starts.
--Lee is 1-3, 6.31 in his last four starts.

--Arizona lost eight of its last eleven road games.
--Phillies lost seven of their last ten games.

--Nine of last eleven Collmenter starts stayed under the total.

•Padres-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Despaigne is 2-1, 1.31 ERA and is coming off the best start of his young career Sunday.
--Teheran owns a 3-1 mark and 1.23 ERA in 10 starts this season at home.

--San Diego won five of its last six games.
--Braves lost four of their last five games.

--Under is 13-4-1 in last eighteen San Diego road games.

•Mets-Brewers - 7:10 PM
--Niese is 2-2, 5.92 in his last five starts.
--Peralta is 7-1, 5.89 in his last ten starts.

--Mets lost 10 of their last 15 road games.
--Milwaukee won five of its last six home games.

--Five of Mets' last six road games stayed under.

•Pirates-Rockies - 8:10 PM
--Locke is 2-0, 3.06 in his last seven starts.
--Colorado lost last seven Matzek starts (0-4, 5.31).

--Pittsburgh won five of its last seven games.
--Rockies lost seven of their last nine games.

--Five of last seven Pittsburgh road games went over.

•Dodgers-Giants - 9:05 PM
--Kershaw is 8-0, 1.06 in his last nine starts.
--Vogelsong is 0-4, 3.90 in his last five starts.

--Dodgers lost six of their last nine road games.
--Giants won six of their last nine games overall.

--Six of last nine Dodger games stayed under total.

American League
•Blue Jays-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Hutchison is 1-5, 6.97 in his last six starts.
--Capuano is pitching for third team this season (1-1, 4.55 in 28 relief stints); he is 74-84 in his career, in 209 starts, all in the NL.

--Blue Jays won five of last seven games, but are 3-14 in last 17 road games.
--New York won eight of its last ten games.

--Under is 11-3-2 in last sixteen Yankees home games.

•Orioles-Mariners - 4:10 PM
--Norris is 5-1, 3.57 in his last six starts.
--Young is 0-2, 3.79 in his last three starts.

--Orioles won 12 of their last 17 road games.
--Seattle lost six of its last nine games.

--13 of last 15 Seattle home games stayed under.

•Red Sox-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Lackey is 2-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
--Hellickson allowed one run in 4.1 IP (84 PT) in his first '14 start.

--Red Sox lost their last four games.
--Tampa Bay won its last eight games.

--Seven of last nine Boston road games went over total.

•Indians-Royals - 7:10 PM
--McAllister is 1-5, 7.75 in his last eight starts.
--Guthrie is 0-3, 8.66 in his last four starts.

--Cleveland lost five of its last six games.
--Kansas City won its last four games.

--Five of last seven Indian games stayed under total.

•White Sox-Twins - 7:10 PM
--Sale is 4-0, 2.11 in his last six starts.
--Darnell is making first MLB start; he is 5-5, 3.43 in 17 AAA starts this year- he's thrown three scoreless innings in the majors.

--White Sox won three of their last four road games.
--Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.

--12 of last 17 White Sox games stayed under.

•Athletics-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Gray is 4-0, 1.59 in his last four starts.
--Tepesch is 0-2, 7.71 in his last three starts.

--Oakland lost seven of its last nine road games.
--Rangers lost 28 of their last 35 games overall.

--Six of last nine A's games went over the total.

•Tigers-Angels - 9:05 PM
--Verlander is 3-1, 5.04 in his last four starts.
--Shoemaker is 1-2, 8.04 in his last three starts.

--Detroit won four of its last six games.
--Angels won nine of their last fourteen games.

--Eight of last eleven Angel games stayed under total.

Interleague
•Marlins-Astros - 7:10 PM
--Koehler is winless in his last three starts, but has surrendered only four runs over 13 innings.
--Cosart (9-6, 4.23) is 5-1 in his last seven starts.

--Miami won four of its last five games.
--Astros lost five of last six home games.

--Over is 13-7 in last 20 Houston games.

•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Miller 8-11; Arrieta 9-5
-- Gonzalez 10-5; Cueto 12-9
-- Collmenter 11-6; Lee 15-6
-- Despaigne 3-2; Teheran 13-8
-- Niese 10-8; Peralta 11-8
-- Locke 6-3; Matzek 1-7
-- Kershaw 12-3; Vogelsong 11-9

-- Hutchison 9-11; Capuano 0-0
-- Norris 10-6; Young 10-8
-- Lackey 12-8; Hellickson 1-0
-- McAllister 6-6; Guthrie 10-10
-- Sele 10-5; Darnell 0-0
-- Gray 14-6; Tepesch 4-7
-- Verlander 12-8; Shoemaker 7-3

-- Koehler 9-11; Cosart 11-8

•Umpires Trends
-- StL-Chi-- Three of last four Wegner games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Cin-- 11 of last 14 Nelson games stayed under total.
-- Az-Phil-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Wolcott games.
-- SD-Atl-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Nauert games.
-- NY-Mil-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Ripperger games.
-- Pitt-Col-- Five of last six Cooper games stayed under.
-- LA-SF-- Five of last seven Hamari games went over.

-- Tor-NY-- Under is 13-4-1 in last eighteen Porter games.
-- Blt-Sea-- Underdogs won six of last nine Culbreth games.
-- Bos-TB-- Five of last seven Fairchild games stayed under.
-- Cle-KC-- Five of last six Meals games went over total.
-- Chi-Minn-- Favorites won last four Gorman games.
-- A's-Tex-- Four of last five Reyburn games went over.
-- Det-LAA-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Blaser games.

-- Mia-Hst-- Seven of last ten Hoberg games went over.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
Dodgers Ace Clayton Kershaw is a spotless 11-0 against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The two-time Cy Young winner owns baseball's lowest ERA and is 8-0 with a 1.06 mark and 88 strikeouts in 68 innings over his last nine outings.

Another victory would give the left-hander the longest winning streak for Los Angeles since Kevin Brown won nine straight decisions over a 10-game stretch from April 29-June 17, 2003. Kershaw, though, didn't perform up to his lofty standards while not figuring in the decision of a 4-3 win at St. Louis on Sunday. He battled through 109 pitches in seven innings, allowing three runs with eight strikeouts.

Diamond Trends - Saturday
•MINNESOTA is 6-26 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus an American League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 3.3, OPPONENT 6.2.

•LA ANGELS are 14-2 OVER (+12.2 Units) versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 6.1, OPPONENT 5.9.

•BALTIMORE is 17-3 (+14.8 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.5, OPPONENT 3.3.

•RYAN VOGELSONG is 18-5 (+15.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.7, OPPONENT 3.1.

•CHRIS YOUNG is 12-2 UNDER (+10.2 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season.
The average score was YOUNG 2.9, OPPONENT 2.7.

•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 9-23 (-15.8 Units) against the run line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.1, OPPONENT 4.2.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
(35-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +32.8 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +142.3
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.5)

The situation's record this season is: (4-2, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-12, +24.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (54-48, +27.3 units).

•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (National League), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 5 starts.
(65-26 since 1997.) (71.4%, +41.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (56-35)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3, money line price: +104
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +1.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 51 (56% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-4, -1.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-6, -0.1 units).

•Play Over - Home teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games.
(53-22 since 1997.) (70.7%, +29.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-107.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 5.5 (Total runs scored = 10.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 44 (59.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-6, -1.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-13, +5.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-16, +17.8 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees on Friday and likes the Yankees on Saturday.

The deficit is 254 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Kuroda and the Yanks came to Hondo’s rescue last night, rallying wonderfully to continue their Stadium domination of the Jays and reduce the deficit to 1,450 kluszewskis.

Saturday: Mr. Aitch sees no need to network with Nat Gio, but he expects Cueto to put on a good show — 10 units on the Reds. Also, 10 on Despaigne to show the Braves who their Padres are.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Washington / Cincy Under 7

Cubs -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play White Sox w/Sale -160