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The Winnipeg Blue Bombers thrashed the BC Lions 23-6 in Canadian Football League action Friday night, resulting in yet another game landing below the point total and extending the streak of games going under.
Teams in the CFL have gone under the point total in nine consecutive games and are now 4-14 over/under for the season. The under is hitting 77.78 percent of the time.
There is a doubleheader on tap for Saturday with the Ottawa Redblacks (1-2 over/under) visiting the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-3 O/U) with a total currently at 47.5 and the Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-2 O/U) host the Toronto A
Argonauts (2-2 O/U) with a current total of 50.5.
Five to Follow MLB Betting: Saturday July 26, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews – Doc Sports
The 2014 San Diego Padres are one of the least interesting teams in baseball this decade. They are great to bet against and on the “under” because the Padres have what could be a historically bad offense and already have traded two of their best players in third baseman Chase Headley and closer Huston Street. That said, it’s worth watching the Padres, and maybe even backing them occasionally, when Cuban Odrisamer Despaigne is on the mound. Here’s a look at his matchup on Saturday and four other games.
Padres at Braves (-181, 6.5)
I had never heard of Despaigne (2-1, 1.31) before he was called up in late June. The 27-year-old has drawn comparisons to El Duque Hernandez. Despaigne defected in June 2013 at Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris while the Cuban team was en route to a tournament in the Netherlands. He received a $1 million bonus to sign with the Padres on May 2. The Padres have never had a no-hitter in franchise history — the only active team without one (by comparison, Tim Lincecum has two against them in the past two years) — but Despaigne came within four outs of one in his last start against the Mets. He is holding opponents to a .177 average and has yet to allow more than two earned runs in his five starts. Is there some talent in Cuba or what? Atlanta starts a pretty good Colombian pitcher by the name of Julio Teheran (9-6, 2.64). He struck out a season-high 11 and allowed just a run over seven innings last time out vs. the Marlins but took a no-decision.
Key trends: The Braves are 5-2 in Teheran’s past seven at home vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 5-1 in his past six at home against teams with a losing record.
Early lean: I would take San Diego at -135 on the runline and under at -110.
Orioles at Mariners (-114, 8)
I really don’t get the Seattle Mariners. They had all offseason to re-sign Kendrys Morales. OK, maybe he wanted too much. But then they had the first three months of the season to still do it and chose not to despite a glaring need for a bat. The guy led the Mariners in batting average (.277), hits (167), doubles (34) and RBIs (80) last season while also hitting 23 homers. So what does Seattle do now? Gives up a potential asset in minor-league pitcher Stephen Pryor to acquire Morales from the Twins. Seattle certainly leads the league in first base/DH types. Morales looked pretty lousy in his month-plus with the Twins so I doubt he makes a huge dent for the M’s. Morales is 2-for-5 career off Saturday’s Orioles starter Bud Norris (8-6, 3.78). He held the Angels to an earned run over 6.2 innings in his last start. Corey Hart, another one of those Seattle 1B/DH guys, has two homers and six RBIs career off Norris in 18 at-bats. Chris Young (8-6, 3.22) goes for the Mariners. Young is 5-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 10 starts at Safeco Field this year. Few Orioles have ever faced him.
Key trends: The Orioles are 5-2 in Norris’ past seven on the road. The Mariners have lost five straight Game 3s of a series. The under is 9-0-1 in Young’s past 10 at home.
Early lean: Why aren’t the Mariners more heavily favored with how good Young has been at home? I think they will be at least -120 by game time. Take Seattle and the under at +100.
Diamondbacks at Phillies (-152, 7.5)
If you are an ESPN Insider, check out Buster Olney’s latest blog on how the Phillies have so many untradeable contracts, more than any other team. Right behind Ryan Howard on that list is Cliff Lee, who starts Saturday. The Phillies absolutely want to dump Lee, but Olney makes a good point that a trade might not happen until August because Lee will clear waivers. He is still owed $25 million for next season and then around the same amount in 2016 or a $12.5 million buyout. Who gives $12.5 million buyouts?? Lee (4-5, 3.67) made his first start in two months on Monday and was shelled, allowing six runs and 12 hits over 5.2 innings. He will still be a Phillie after the July 31 deadline. Some team might take a shot in August (Yankees) if he improves. Arizona second baseman Aaron Hill is 9-for-26 with two doubles and three RBIs career off Lee. Snakes starter Josh Collmenter (8-5, 3.64) has had back-to-back starts of allowing just an earned run over seven innings. His best start of the year was when he blanked the Phillies over six innings on April 25.
Key trends: Arizona is 6-1 in Collmenter’s past seven vs. teams with a losing record. Philadelphia is 1-6 in Lee’s past seven at home. The under is 5-0 in Collmenter’s past five.
Early lean: Lee might not be right yet and Collmenter has been good of late. The Snakes are good value here.
Indians at Royals (-127, 8.5)
Two injuries to keep an eye on here. Indians shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (.247, 9 HRs, 39 RBIs) is aiming to play. He hasn’t started since Monday due to back spasms. Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (.271, 6 HRs, 45 RBIs) might play as he has been dealing with a bruised right hand that is hampering his swing. He did enter Thursday’s game late as a defensive replacement. Zach McAllister (3-5, 5.28) starts for the Tribe. He was sent down to the minors for a while but has been better since returning, allowing four runs over 12.1 innings in two starts. He beat the Royals on April 21, allowing two earned over six. Alex Gordon is a career .333 hitter off him with two doubles and homer in 12 at-bats. Kansas City’s Jeremy Guthrie (5-9, 4.56) looks to end a three-start losing streak. He has allowed 17 runs over 14 innings in that stretch. The first of those was July 5 in Cleveland when he was rocked for 11 hits and six runs in four innings. Jason Kipnis really kills the guy, going 10-for-17 with two homers and seven RBIs. Nick Swisher (.370, 2 HRs, 11 RBIs) does too.
Key trends: The Royals have lost five straight on Saturday as well as five straight Guthrie starts on Saturday. The under is 6-1 in K.C.’s past seven vs. right-handers.
Early lean: Over at -110.
Red Sox at Rays (-118, 7.5)
The injury to watch here is to Boston DH David Ortiz. He left Thursday’s game in the ninth inning after experience a spasm in the middle of his back after taking a check swing. It didn’t look good, but Ortiz didn’t seem overly concerned. Still, a long flight from Toronto to the Tampa area wouldn’t have helped things. Big Papi has proven pretty durable despite his age. Ortiz will want to be in there against Rays right-hander Jeremy Hellickson as Ortiz is 9-for-24 with three homers and four RBIs career against him. Hellickson (0-0, 2.08) was activated off the DL right before the All-Star Break and pitched 4.1 innings vs. the Royals, allowing a run. He was then sent back down to get more seasoning with the break and the Rays not needing him. Now he’s back and should be in the rotation to stay. After a rough stretch, Boston’s John Lackey (11-6, 3.66) has pitched back-to-back quality starts, winning both. He is 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts vs. Tampa Bay this year. Both Matt Joyce and Evan Longoria are career .333 hitters off him with two homers and six RBIs.
Key trends: Boston is 1-7 in Lackey’s past eight road starts vs. teams with a losing record. The Rays have won seven straight vs. right-handers. The over is 4-1 in Lackey’s past five against Tampa Bay.
Early lean: I lean Rays regardless, but if Ortiz sits add them on the runline (currently at +180).
Kevin's Pick(s):
I took it on the chin last night with two late losses. The Cubs and Cardinals went back and forth but the Cubs eventually took and held the lead in the 7th inning, and then in the night game the Braves scored their 2nd run of the game in the bottom of the 8th to put that game one run over the total. I'm looking to bounce back here on Saturday night, going again with the UNDER in the Padres/Braves series with another two solid starters on the mound. 2 UNIT = San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves - UNDER 7 RUNS (-125)
Listed Pitchers: Despaigne vs Teheran
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.60 units)
Odrisamer Despaigne will start for the Padres with an extra days rest after flirting with a no-hitter his last time out. He pitched 7.2 innings giving up 2 hits and 1 earned run. He is now 2-1 on the season with a 1.31 ERA, .177 OBA and 0.90 WHIP over 5 starts. In 2 road starts he has a 1.29 ERA as he has given up just 2 runs over 14 innings of work. The Braves will counter with Julio Teheran who is 9-6 with a 2.64 ERA, .221 OBA and 1.03 WHIP. At home he is a stellar 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA, .176 OBA and 0.79 WHIP. After two poor road starts he came back home and went 7 innings allowing just 4 hits and 1 earend run with 11 strikeouts and just one walk his last time out. Take note that the UNDER is 34-15-2 in the Padres last 51 overall, 5-1-1 in their last 7 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 4-1 in Despaigne's 5 starts, and 48-22-4 in their alst 74 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the Braves last 9 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 20-6 in Teheran's last 26 home starts, and 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The UNDER is also 32-13-1 in Teheran's last 46 starts overall and 9-4-1 in his last 14 starts pitching with 4 days rest. With the stats sites having last night's game being graded a push because some bookies closed with a totla of 7 (-135) the UNDER is 21-5-3 in these two teams last 29 meetings in Atlanta. I'm on the UNDER.
Kyle's Pick(s) 2 UNIT = Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds - UNDER 7 RUNS (-112)
Listed Pitchers:Gonzalez vs. Cueto
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.79 units)
Picked up a winner last night in this same series and on the same bet. Looking for the same results here on Saturday afternoon.
As predicted, the Reds' offense was atrocious. Some of it was due to the effort of Tanner Roark, but a lot of it was because of their lineup. They managed only 1 run on 3 hits. Without Phillips and Votto around much of the same should continue to happen. I said in my last writeup the Reds have two solid players currently healthy, the one being Alfredo Simon and the other the starter today, Johnny Cueto. We've expected this type of production out of Cueto who enters this afternoon with a 2.18 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. His numbers are even better at home, where in that respect his ERA slides down to 1.93 with a WHIP and OBP of only 0.79 and .224. Cueto last allowed more than 3 runs on June 6th nine starts ago against the Phillies. He should be able to handle the Nationals today at home after a rough outing against them on the road a couple of months ago. His pitching counterpart, Gio Gonzalez, hasn't been amazing but he should be able to look amazing against these Reds' hitters. I noted yesterday that the Reds have average 1.8 runs in their last five games, well that number goes down due to the 1 run they scored last night. Gonzalez hasn't been bad either, just good, not great. He's been good in his last three starts with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Gonazlez went a stretch between June 23rd-July 5th where he allowed no runs and only 9 hits in those three games. He followed it up by allowing 3 runs in each of his last two games, so he is turning it around after a poor start. He'll be able to take advantage of the anemic Reds' offense today going opposite to Cueto. I loved getting the hook on last nights number as I thought the line should have been 7. I still like the total of 7 today in which I'll be playing the UNDER 7.
10* Play St. Louis +115 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY) Chicago is 41-80 vs. division opponents the last two seasons Chicago is 49-78 in day games the last two seasons Chicago is 31-50 vs. right-handed starting pitchers the last two seasons
10* Play Washington +105 over Cincinnati (MLB TOP PLAY) Washington is 71-53 after having won five or six of the last seven games Washington is 98-79 when the total posted is 7 runs or less Washington is 38-31 when playing on a Saturday the last three seasons
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5* Play Cleveland +120 over Kansas City (MLB BONUS PLAY) 5* Play Miami +110 over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
Play Toronto +8.5 over Saskatchewan---RISK 25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Saskatchewan has lost 6 of the last 7 games against the spread after having lost two of the last three games and they have lost 19 of the last 27 games against the spread when playing after the 1st month of the season.Saskatchewan has lost 13 of the last 18 games against the spread when playing on a Saturday and they have lost 8 of the last 11 games against the spread after allowing 200 or less passing yards in their last game.
Play Hamilton -7 over Ottawa---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
================================================== ========= TOP ARENA FOOTBALL PLAYS
Play Jacksonville -16 over Los Angeles Kiss---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Play San Jose -13 over Iowa---RISK 5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Play Spokane -9.5 over Portland---RISK 5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Play St. Louis +115 over Chicago Cubs----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
4:00 PM EST
Shelby Miller has won 6 of the last 8 games when pitching on a Saturday and he has won 12 of the last 18 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season. Shelby Miller has won 9 of the last 14 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 to +150 and he has an ERA of 0.00 vs. Chicago over his career.
Play Washington +105 over Cincinnati----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll) 4:00 PM EST
Gio Gonzalez has won 19 of the last 22 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he has won 55 of the last 92 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season. Gio Gonzalez has won 29 of the last 43 road games and he has won 77 of the last 131 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.
SATURDAY CANADIAN FOOTBALL 5000* Play Hamilton -7 over Ottawa (TOP CFL PLAY) Ottawa has lost 10 of the last 14 games against the spread coming off a home win and they have lost 25 of the last 37 road games against the spread.Ottawa has lost 45 of the last 48 games when playing as an underdog and they are only averaging 19 points a game on offense this season.
5000* Play Toronto +8.5 over Saskatchewan (TOP CFL PLAY) Toronto has covered the spread in 10 of the last 13 games when playing on a Saturday and they have covered the spread in 13 of the last 20 road games.Toronto has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games after covering the spread in three of the last four games and they have covered the spread in 10 of the last 14 games when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
1000* Play Pittsburgh -130 over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)
Colorado has lost 46 of the last 68 games when playing in the month of July and they have lost 41 of the last 67 night games.Colorado has lost 85 of the last 133 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers and they have lost 58 of the last 85 games when playing as an underdog of +125 to +175.
Justin Verlander has not been impressive this year and this is a Angels team that is great against right handed pitching and excellent at home. Look for the Angels to get to Verlander early today. Take Los Angeles.
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