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2* 954 CIN / 953 WAS – UNDER 7
Analysis: The weather in Cincy is somewhat conducive to a higher than normal score but I promise you that has been factored into the betting number here for this game. We do have a better than average ump working the balls and strikes 2 much better than average starters working this game, and a Reds team that is having trouble plating runs. The Bonus here is that Cueto has been Marvo at this park this year with an ERA well under 2 and a WHIP Under .80. These things and others make this an easy choice for us in this afternoon contest.
This game pits Hellickson vs Lackey. Lackey has struggled in his last 5 with an ERA north of 6 but has been great in his last two starts by not giving up more than two runs. Lackey is a very underrated pitcher according to our system whereas Hellickson is very overrated and even though he dominated his last start he was quite lucky in that contest and should have some difficulty against the Red Sox today.
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
Time: Saturday 07/26 9:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Los Angeles -114 (moneyline) at Bookmaker
The Los Angeles Angels have been a mystery over the past two seasons as they have a lot of talent, but just didn't seem to have the team chemistry. All that has changed as this team is 20 games over .500 and just two games behind Oakland for the best record in the AL, and in all of baseball. Matt Shoemaker takes the ball for the Halos, and his 7-3 record on the season is backed by a better ERA than the Tigers Justin Verlander. Verlander hs seen his velocity, once topping out at 100, drop considerably, and he hasn't pitched with the same effectiveness this season with a 4.84 ERA. The Angels have been punishing as a home favorite where they are now 22-6 in their last 28. And the Tigers have never played well against the Angels here where they are a brutal 14-39 in their last 53. Make the play on Los Angeles
The Pirates are 11-0 since May 29, 2014 when they are off a loss in which they never led and allowed more than two runs for a net profit of $1,165.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY
When Clayton Kershaw starts the Dodgers are 10-0 since July 2, 2013 as a road 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1,000.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Marlins are 0-12 ($+1,350) since 2010 if their opponent has allowed at least 11 hits in each of the last three games.
CHOICE TREND:
The Orioles are 0-9 since August 10, 2013 after an extra inning win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1,095 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Julio Teheran starts the Braves are 13-1 since May 20, 2013 as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1,170.
The buy-low, sell-high angle does not just apply to sides. It can apply to totals too and we find an example of that in this game. Hamilton has played three games and the totals in those games were 54, 54 and 50½ respectively. All three games went under the number and the reaction to that and to overall scoring being down is a very beatable number here. Both games so far this week have gone under the number. Over players are getting clobbered this year, which in turn makes them gun shy and many will shift gears but we’re not one of them.
Hamilton’s offense is loaded with outstanding receivers and for the first time this season they’re all healthy with a full week of practice under their belt. They also have one of the most dangerous offensive weapons out of the backfield in C.J. Gable. The Tiger-Cats come into this game 0-3 but two of their losses occurred against the great defenses of Edmonton and Calgary. The Tabbies take a huge step down in class here when facing the poor defense of the Redblacks. Incidentally, Hamilton probably should have won both those games. Dan LeFevour gets the call at QB for Hamilton and he’s the third different starter in three weeks. However, after replacing Jeremiah Masoli last week he got in plenty of snaps and he’s been taking most of the reps in practice this week. LeFevour is dangerous with his ability to run and is without question Hamilton’s best option.
The Redblacks aren’t scoring many points and in fact these two rank at the bottom of the league in all key offensive categories. But as the weeks pass and players get used to new systems and offensive schemes, scoring will increase. Ottawa’s Henry Burris is capable of going off in any game. Had his receiving corps been able to catch accurate passes right in the numbers, Ottawa would have scored a lot more points. Burris will be a little extra-jacked up here to perform well because the Tiger-Cats chose to release him in in the of-season in favor of Zach Collaros. Furthermore, the Redblacks figure to get a couple of short fields because the Tiger-Cats are turnover prone with 12 already in just three games. That said, we’re not counting on Ottawa to light it up here. A reasonable output of between 14-24 points is attainable. As for Hamilton, with all that offensive firepower, they figure to go off. This is their first “real” home game in close to two years. The fans will be crazy and the atmosphere electric. Hamilton has the horses to put up 40 points on their own in this one and they may not stop there.
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