7-31-14

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Today's CFL Picks

Winnipeg at Hamilton

The Tiger-Cats (1-3) host at Winnipeg team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games versus a team with a losing record. Hamilton is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 31 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (7/30)

Game 421-422: Winnipeg at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 111.674; Hamilton 117.317 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 5 1/2; 45 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3 1/2); Under

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Game of the Day: Blue Bombers at Tiger-Cats

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-4, 50)

Dan LeFevour and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats try to build on their first victory when they host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday. The Blue Bombers already have surpassed their total from 2013 with four victories on the strength of new additions such as quarterback Drew Willy and kicker Lirim Hajrullahu. Former Hamilton defensive back Matt Bucknor also have proved a timely addition, as he leads the team with 21 tackles.

LeFevour looked great in his first career CFL start, powering the Tiger-Cats' offense to 558 total yards after spending last season taking short-yardage duty. He should be under center again for Hamilton with Zach Collaros on the injured list, but he faces a much steeper challenge against a Winnipeg defense that limited its opponent to six points in Week 5. Willy is second in the league with 1,301 passing yards, but the Tiger-Cats' defense averages the fewest passing yards allowed in the East (226.3).

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Ti-Cats as 3.5-point home faves but that moved up to -4 earlier Wednesday. The total opened 51 but dropped to 50.

INJURY REPORT: Blue Bombers - SB Cory Watson (Questionable, hamstring). Tiger-Cats - QB Zach Collaros (Six-game IR, head)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "I expected continued regression from the Bombers last week but we saw anything but as they manhandled the Lions in B.C. I'm still not sure Winnipeg is quite as good as its record suggests. There are plenty of Ti-Cat doubters out there but I believe the oddsmakers have it right installing them as a favorite here. Dan LeFevour may not be a long-term solution under center but in the short-term I do expect him to succeed." Covers Expert Sean Murphy

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (4-1): Willy’s primary target has been Nick Moore, who has 320 receiving yards and will be counted on more as long as Aaron Kelly is injured. Nic Grigsby has registered 287 rushing yards and three touchdowns to start his first CFL season. Defensive tackle Zach Anderson leads the team with three sacks.

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (1-3): Defensive back Craig Butler was seen wearing a walking boot on the sidelines at practice on Monday and could miss Thursday’s game. Running back C.J. Gable recorded 167 of his 288 combined yards last week. Linebacker Rico Murray has made two of the team’s three interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Blue Bombers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Tiger-Cats are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 51.79 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing the Tiger-Cats.

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Fourth-worst money pitcher in action Thursday
Stephen Campbell


If you've been backing the Detroit Tigers with Drew Smyly on the mound this season, your bank account has been taking a hit. The 25-year-old ranks as the fourth-worst money pitcher in baseball through Wednesday with a miserable -$860.


Smyly gets the nod for the Tigers when they host the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park Thursday. BetOnline currently lists Detroit as heavy -181 faves on the moneyline with a total of nine.

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Over red-hot with this ump behind the plate
Stephen Campbell

Recent trends are showing umpire Gabe Morales has been a fantastic play for bettors backing the Over in recent matchups, as eight out of the last 10 games he's worked have gone over the total. Morales will be behind the dish for Thursday's meeting between the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field.

Per BetOnline, the Tribe are currently -126 favorites with an O/U of 8.5.

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This pitcher is lights out on the Under
Stephen Campbell

Under bettors have been cashing in with Baltimore Orioles Bud Norris on the mound. In Norris' last six starts, the Under is a perfect 6-0. He'll get the ball for the O's when they host the Los Angeles Angels at Oriole Park at Camden Yards Thursday.

BetOnline presently has the Halos as -117 favorites with an O/U of nine.

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Phils, Lee trending Over
Stephen Campbell

In Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee's previous eight outings, the Over is a scorching hot 6-1-1. Lee takes the mound for Philly against the Washington Nationals in D.C. Thursday.

The Nats are currently -153 faves with a total of seven, according to BetOnline.

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Cards need to buck this trend versus Padres
Stephen Campbell

The St. Louis Cardinals have not been playing well with pitcher Shelby Miller on the mound as of late, dropping five out of the last six games he's started. They'll try to turn things around when the 23-year-old gets the ball against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Field Thursday.

BetOnline currently lists the Pads as -114 faves with a total of seven.

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Blue Jays keep posting high totals
Stephen Campbell

The Toronto Blue Jays have rediscovered their early season offense, and Over bettors are profiting. Through Wednesday, the Over is 7-1-2 in the Jays' last 10 games.

Toronto visits the lowly Houston Astros in Texas Thursday. The Jays are currently -127 faves with an O/U of 8.5, per BetOnline.

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WGC-Bridgestone Invitational preview: Don't count out defending champ Tiger Woods
By MATT FARGO

The PGA Tour is doing double duty this week, the second time this season that a regular tour event and a WGC event are taking place the same week. This week, the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational takes center stage with every player ranked in the top 50 in the OWGR competing from the Firestone Country Club South Course in Akron, Ohio. The Barracuda Championship has to deal with that along with preceding the PGA Championship.

We will keep our focus on the Bridgestone for betting purposes as we have a field that has not been seen on many occasions this season because of its strength.

The South Course at Firestone seems almost unfair to amateurs as it is a par 70 but measures 7,400 yards making it the longest par 70 course of all non-majors. Surprisingly, the bombers off the tee do not have a huge edge as the real way to score is hitting greens in regulation as the greens can be very receptive and can lead to good birdie chances. Firestone South ranked second highest of all par 70's out of the non-Majors a year ago.

Defending his championship is Tiger Woods (+1,200) who has now won here eight times. He tied the course record with a Friday 61 en route to a seven-shot lead that he never relinquished. This is his third event since coming back from back surgery and while he has shown some strong positives, he is still showing a lot of rust. Even with that though, he cannot be counted out here.


Keegan Bradley (+2,300) won here is 2012 which was his third win on tour and he has not won since. He has finished in the top 25 in 26 of his last 38 starts the last two seasons which includes 12 top tens and three runner ups. He has been hit or miss this year but owns two T4 finishes in his last five starts including one at the U.S. Open. Finished T2 here last year in his title defense.

We are getting exceptional value with Jason Dufner (+4,500). He is another player that has been all over the place this season but he certainly has the tools to win especially at this course. His best finish in a major this year is T51 and while he is defending the last one of the season next week, his history here shows that can wait. He finished seventh in 2012 and T4 last year.

Victor Dubuisson (+7,000) made a name for himself with a runner up finish at the Accenture Match Play Championships and he has been solid ever since. He is coming off a T9 at the Open Championship which was his fourth worldwide top ten of the season. This is his first start at Firestone but it is the type of course that fits his game very well and he should be able to score well here.

Brendon Todd (+7,500) is a big time sleeper with big time game. Let's not forget that he already has a win this season at the HP Byron Nelson Championship. That was the start of a run of five top eights in six starts including four top fives. His last start resulted in a T39 at the Open Championship. He will cherish this week as he had to play in Reno the last two years this event was taking place.

Recommended Tournament Win Six Pack at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational (all for One Unit)

Tiger Woods (+1,200)
Keegan Bradley (+2,300)
Jason Dufner (+4,500)
Victor Dubuisson (+7,000)
Brendon Todd (+7,500)

2014 Record to date after 28 events: -83 Units

Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open -5 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +22 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
WGC - Accenture Match Play +23 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship -5 Units
Valspar Championship -5 Units
Arnold Palmer Invitational -5 Units
Valero Texas Open -5 Units
Shell Houston Open -5 Units
The Masters -7 Units
Zurich Classic -5 Units
Wells Fargo Championship -5 Units
THE PLAYERS Championship -5 Units
HP Byron Nelson Championship -5 Units
Crowne Plaza Invitational -5 Units
Memorial Tournament -5 Units
FedEx St. Jude Classic -5 Units
U.S. Open -6 Units
Travelers Championship -5 Units
Quicken Loans National -5 Units
Greenbrier Classic -5 Units
John Deere Classic -5 Units
The Open Championship -5 Units
RBC Canadian Open -5 Units

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
By David Schwab

The CFL schedule heads into Week 6 of the regular season and the gap in talent between the West and East Division continues to widen. The West has four teams sitting at .500 or better while the four teams in the East have a combined record of 4-13 straight up.

Week 5 in the league kicked things off last Thursday with Calgary remaining perfect on the year in a 26-22 victory over Edmonton as a two-point road underdog. The total in that game stayed just UNDER the 49-point closing line. Friday’s only action saw Winnipeg continuing its strong start with a 23-6 victory against British Columbia as an eight-point underdog on the road. The total stayed well UNDER the closing line of 51 ½ points in that contest.

This past Saturday’s double-header kicked things off with Hamilton outlasting Ottawa 33-23 as a 6 ½-point home favorite with the total going OVER the 47-point line. Saskatchewan wrapped things up with a 37-9 rout over Toronto as an eight-point favorite at home. The total stayed UNDER the closing 51-point betting line.

Thursday, July 31

Winnipeg (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) at Hamilton (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -3 ½
Total: 51

Game Overview

Winnipeg was able to eclipse last season’s SU win total of three games with the victory over BC behind another strong performance from Drew Willy at quarterback. He completed 18-of-26 attempts for 250 yards and a score to remain second in the CFL total passing yards this season with 1,301 in five games.

The Tiger-Cats held the RedBlacks to six-points in the second half of last Saturday’s win after giving-up just 10 points in a loss to Calgary the week before. While there does not appear to be any major issues with Hamilton’s defense, it is ranked second-to-last in the league in scoring with an average of 14.8 points per game. Dan LeFevour got the start at quarterback against Ottawa for the injured Zach Collaros.

Betting Trends

Winnipeg is 0-5 SU and 1-4 against the spread in the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in 16 of the last 21 games played in Hamilton. The home team in this matchup is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games.

Friday, Aug. 1

Toronto (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Montreal (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -3 ½
Total: 48

Game Overview

Toronto has bared little resemblance to the team that won the East last season with a SU record of 11-7. Ricky Ray is still throwing the ball all over the field with a CFL-high 1,501 passing yards and six touchdown throws, but the Argonauts’ defense has not made things easy with an average of 29.8 points allowed. This is also the highest total in the league.

Montreal is coming off a bye week after stumbling out to a 1-3 start against three different teams from the West (it split two games against BC). An ineffective Troy Smith has seen the majority of the action at quarterback, but look for the Alouettes to possibly turn to Tanner Marsh if Smith gets off to another slow start.

Betting Trends

Toronto has covered the spread in five of its last six trips to Montreal, but overall in this East Division showdown it is 7-15 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The road team has won the last six games SU and the total has stayed UNDER in eight of the last nine meetings between the two.

British Columbia (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Calgary (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5
Total: 45 ½

Game Overview

Last week’s loss to Winnipeg was a serious set-back for a Lions’ team that was favored by many to win the West this year so this Friday becomes a huge test to get back into the race. Kevin Glenn continues to fill-in at quarterback for the injured Travis Lulay, who is still recovering from a shoulder injury.

Calgary may not have the most dynamic offense in the CFL with an average 24.8 points a game, but that has been more than enough production with a defense that has given-up a grand total of 52 points through its first four outings. Bo Levi Mitchell has done an excellent job at managing the game at quarterback and Matt Walter is the team’s leading rusher with 139 yards on 29 carries.

Betting Trends

BC is 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six games. The home team in this West Division clash has won SU in seven of the last nine games and the total has stayed UNDER in two of the last three meetings.

Saturday, Aug. 2

Saskatchewan (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Ottawa (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -4
Total: 50

Game Overview

Last season’s CFL Grey Cup Champs proved they still know how to put points on the board and play defense with last week’s win over Toronto. This followed a shaky 1-2 start in the Roughriders first three games. Will Ford led the way against the Argonauts with 114 yards rushing and three touchdowns after recently joining the team.

The expansion RedBlacks keep showing up week after week as a better team than their record might indicate. Henry Burris put the ball up 44 times against Hamilton last week and completed 27 passes for 290 yards and two scores. Running back Chevon Walker is ranked fourth in the league in rushing yards with 251 yards on 45 attempts.

Betting Trends

Saskatchewan is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win, but it is just 8-22 ATS in its last 30 games against a team with a SU losing record. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 14 games.

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Who's Hot - NL Edition
By Mike Rose

The trading deadline is just about here, and the teams that are the hottest in the National League are the ones who really should be making the moves at this point. Though each of the five best money teams in the game are all in the American League, we'll be taking a look at the top teams in the NL for bettors in pro baseball betting action.

Miami Marlins (53-53, +$540) – The Fish are still living just a bit on what they did at the outset of this season at home. All of their profits are from games played at Marlins Park, and their +$547 mark here at home is a fraction of what they were up when they started off like gangbusters in South Beach. That being said, this young pitching staff really is coming together, and it's only going to get better when left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney really figures it out and is set to become the stud that we know he can be. All of these prospects that have been put together in trades over the years are finally coming together, and though this probably isn't the year the Marlins will make the playoffs, they can legitimately finish right here as a .500 team with a solid last two months of the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates (57-49, +$513) – The Bucs are starting to get sneaky at the trade deadline, and we wonder if they are ultimately going to end up making a big move that could change the course of how the National League playoff race ends up looking. When outfielder Starling Marte and right-handed pitcher Gerrit Cole both come back from the disable list, this really might end up being the best team in the NL, and that's saying something, especially in the crowded NL Central. The reason why the Pirates are going to be a decent bet all year long is because they don't have any of those "name pitchers" who are always the big time favorites every time they get on the bump. Pittsburgh should continue to trend upwards, and we would be surprised if it wasn't one of the best five teams in baseball from a betting perspective at season's end.

Milwaukee Brewers (59-49, +$447) – The Brewers were once the best money team in the league, and though they have had a bit of a plight, they have still hung in there and would be in the playoffs if they started today. It's a heck of an accomplishment for a club with no really bona fide ace pitchers and bats that have generally overachieved as we see it. Our concern? The team has scored just two runs in its last three games combined, and it has three road games against the Cardinals coming up here over the weekend. There is a real chance that the schedule is going to end up getting the best of this team by October, and that will probably see the Brewers left out of the postseason dance when it's all said and done with.

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Today's MLB Picks

Cincinnati at Miami

The Reds head to Miami tonight to open a series and come into the contest with a 4-1 record in Johnny Cueto's last 5 starts against the Marlins. Cincinnati is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 31 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Colorado at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Matzek) 14.334; Cubs (Arrieta) 13.542 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-170); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+150); N/A

Game 903-904: St. Louis at San Diego (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 15.685; San Diego (Despaigne) 14.304 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); Under

Game 905-906: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.386; Washington (Gonzalez) 16.629 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Over

Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.384; Miami (Koehler) 13.888 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Under

Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 14.458; Arizona (Collmenter) 15.873 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Under

Game 911-912: Atlanta at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 16.172; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 17.775 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Over

Game 913-914: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.386; Detroit (Smyly) 14.562 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 9 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+170); Under

Game 915-916: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Skaggs) 16.477; Baltimore (Norris) 17.797 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Under

Game 917-918: Seattle at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Young) 14.902; Cleveland (McAllister) 16.300 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-135); Under

Game 919-920: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 15.737; Kansas City (Ventura) 17.438 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-190); 8 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-190); Over

Game 921-922: Toronto at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 13.783; Houston (Cosart) 15.138 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Over

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Phoenix at Minnesota

The Lynx play host to Phoenix tonight and come into the contest with an 11-5 ATS record in the last 16 games between the two teams. Minnesota is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 31 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Phoenix at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.167; Minnesota 121.178 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 169 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 165 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1); Over

Game 603-604: New York at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 107.407; Chicago 112.624 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5; 155 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 149 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Over

Game 605-606: Atlanta at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.536; Tulsa 111.765 Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 1; 169 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 165 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+3 1/2); Over

Game 607-608: Indiana at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 108.759; Seattle 108.266 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 148 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 142 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

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The Golf Professor
Progolfmoves

2014 WGC BRIDGESTONE INVITATIONAL



FIRST ROUND MATCH UPS



2 Unit(2%) Plays

149 **Harris English -110 over Lee Westwood

~We give up the course experience edge in favor of everything else and in a short 18 hole match up we should be fine. English T14 here in his first and only trip here last year. Statistically and looking at recent form everything points to English and at this price we’ll gladly take it.

141 **Webb Simpson +105 over Bill Haas

~Could be a tight match but we have to like the generous dog price. I believe Webb is a more complete player and scores and putts better which favors this spot in a 18h m/u. Haas has played here last four years and has been trending here properly but Webb made his first appearance last year and T14. Look for Webb to grind out a nice win in this match and possibly have a solid week.

7142 **Kevin Na -130 over Brendon de Jonge

~Little bit of chalk but everything points to a Na win in this match. Little bit more variance in these 18h plays but I feel we have a solid all around edge in this match. Course form, recent form, key stats, scoring, putting, ball striking etc in Na’s favor. BdJ making his first trip to Firestone and may need a couple rounds to adjust. Easy play on Na here who could have a good week if he makes some putts.