8-2-14

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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | CINCINNATI at MIAMI
Play On – Home teams (MIAMI) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts
140-82 since 1997. ( 63.1% | 53.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets

MLB | SEATTLE at BALTIMORE
SEATTLE is 21-11 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was: SEATTLE (4.3) , OPPONENT (2.8)

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StatFox Super Situations

MINNESOTA at TULSA
Play On - Road teams (MINNESOTA) after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games 34-11 since 1997. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

MINNESOTA at TULSA
Play On - Any team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) after 1 or more consecutive wins, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games 239-83 since 1997. ( 74.2% | 0.0 units ) 13-2 this year. ( 86.7% | 0.0 units )

INDIANA at PHOENIX
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 off a road loss against opponent off a road win 82-41 since 1997. ( 66.7% | 36.9 units ) 5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )

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Baseball Betting Previews for August 2

The dog days of August continue on Saturday with a big rivalry game and another key matchup. Does Boston have any starters available that aren't fresh out of the minor leagues? We'll preview both key matchups below.

New York Yankees (55-52, 46-59 O/U) at Boston Red Sox (48-60, 44-60 O/U)

Last game: (8/1/14): Boston over New York Yankees, 4-3.

Key Betting Trends

NY Yankees are:
2-5 last 7 road games.
5-1 last 6 with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
4-1 last 5 during game 2 of a series.

Boston is:
1-8 last 9 vs. American League East.
1-7 last 8 during game 2 of a series.
0-4 last 4 as a favorite.

Pitching matchup: (RHP) Shane Greene (2-1, 3.28 ERA) vs. (RHP) Allen Webster (1-0, 3.38 ERA)

Outlook: Due to trades, Boston is back to Allen Webster on the mound, who was called up to take the place of Jake Peavy, who was traded to the San Francisco Giants. Webster has one start this season and gave up two runs in 5 1/3 innings with five walks against Tampa Bay on the road on July 27. The Yankees have their own pitching problems but that's due to injuries to C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova and Masahiro Tanaka. They send Shane Greene to the mound, who allowed three runs in his last start in 5 1/3 innings against Toronto. Greene has never faced the Red Sox and this is Webster's first start against the Yankees. MLB Odds: Boston is a -125-money line favorite. Total: 9.0.

Los Angeles Angels (65-43, 54-49 O/U) at Tampa Bay Rays (53-56, 52-52 O/U)

Last Game: (8/1/14): Los Angeles Angeles over Tampa Bay, 5-3

Key Betting Trends:

LA Angels are:
2-6 last 8 as a road dog.
1-4 in Wilson's last 5 starts as an underdog.
0-6 in Wilson's last 6 road starts.

Tampa Bay is:
8-0 last 8 during game 2 of a series.
9-2 last 11 as a favorite.
20-6 last 26 overall.

Pitching matchup: (LHP) C.J. Wilson (8-6, 4.33 ERA) vs. (RHP) Chris Archer (6-6, 3.37 ERA)

Outlook: Southpaw C.J. Wilson is coming off the disabled list due to an ankle sprain. Wilson was struggling before the ankle injury, allowing 19 runs in his last four games. He's been up-and-down against Tampa Bay, allowing 10 runs in his last three games. The Rays hit left-handers better than they do against right-handers (.254 to .248). Tampa Bay, still in the race even after the David Price deal, throws Chris Archer to the bump. He gave up no runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Angels in May. Archer has thrown four quality starts in his last five games. They'll need to win with Archer on the mound since he becomes elevated to the ace role with Price gone. Baseball Odds: Tampa Bay is a -110-money line favorite. Total: 7.5.

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Lester a big fave in A's debut
Andrew Caley

The Oakland A's big trade deadline acquisition, ace Jon Lester, makes his debut for his new team Saturday and will take the mound as a big fave.

Lester (10-7, 2.52 ERA) and the A's are currently listed as -208 faves against the visiting Kansas City Royals. The Royals counter with Jason Vargas (8-4 3.31 ERA).

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MLB

Preview: Cubs (46-61) at Dodgers (61-48)

Game: 2
Venue: Dodger Stadium
Date: August 02, 2014 9:10 PM EDT

A three-game series with the last-place Chicago Cubs seemed to be an ideal chance for the Los Angeles Dodgers to stay hot.

Instead, they've looking to Hyun-jin Ryu to get them back on track.

Ryu will try to help the Dodgers bounce back from their first loss in seven games by continuing his recent success Saturday night against the Cubs.

Los Angeles (62-48) entered this series with a season-high six-game winning streak, but it ended with an 8-2 loss to the last-place Cubs (46-62).

Still, the Dodgers have won nine of the past 11 meetings with Chicago, and are turning to Ryu (12-5, 3.44 ERA) to help them widen their 2 1/2-game lead on second-place San Francisco.

The left-hander has won three straight starts behind a 2.37 ERA with 22 strikeouts and two walks in 19 innings, limiting opponents to a .186 average.

Ryu is one victory shy of moving into a tie for the most in baseball following Sunday's 4-3 win at San Francisco. He struck out seven Giants and allowed three runs in six innings.

Ryu's impressive stretch has been spurred by some mechanical adjustments. He changed the grip and arm angle on his slider on advice from Clayton Kershaw and also tweaked his curveball after talking with Josh Beckett, according to MLB's official website.

"Ever since then, it's a go-to pitch," manager Don Mattingly said of Ryu's curve.

Ryu earned a 6-2 road win in his only career meeting with the Cubs on Aug. 2, 2013, allowing two runs while scattering 11 hits in 5 1-3 innings.

He'll now face a Chicago team that's hit .285 while winning four of five games, matching its number of victories over the previous 19.

Chris Coghlan had two hits Friday, and his .372 average since June 30 leads the NL. Luis Valbuena had a solo homer and an RBI single in the series opener, giving him two blasts and six RBIs in his past three contests.

The Cubs are giving the ball to Tsuyoshi Wada (1-1, 3.38), who will try to build on his first win in the majors. The 33-year-old rookie left-hander, a veteran of nine seasons in Japan and three in the minors, allowed one run in seven innings of a 4-1 win over Colorado on Monday.

Wada totaled nine inning over his first two starts.

"He executed pitches, got some big outs when he needed to and got out of traffic that developed late," manager Rick Renteria said. "He did a nice job and gave us some innings."

Wada may have to contend with Yasiel Puig, who is 13 for 29 with three doubles, four triples, one homer and nine runs in his last six games. The All-Star right fielder also pounds Cubs pitching, going 12 for 24 with six runs in seven meetings. However, Puig exited Friday's loss with mild left hamstring soreness in the seventh as a precautionary measure.

That was followed by reliever Paul Maholm injuring his right knee covering first for the final out of the inning, while first baseman Adrian Gonzalez left in the third with a right knee contusion.

Dee Gordon, meanwhile, should be back in the lineup after stealing two bases Friday, giving him a major league leading 50 - the most by a Dodger since Juan Pierre had 64 in 2007.

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August Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

With the MLB trade deadline having closed and the NFL preseason whetting our pigskin appetite, the month of August sets the table for the stretch run of the baseball season. Which pitchers can we count on to satisfy our tastes, and which ones figure to turn our stomach? Take a look below.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of August. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in August team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each August over the last three years. *Designates this pitcher appeared on the list last season.

I’ll be back next month with September’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy the hot August nights.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

Buehrle, Mark (11-5)

After a phenomenal start, the Toronto left-hander has returned to career norms, but if the Blue Jays are to make the postseason, Buehrle will have to play a large role. Toronto overall has flourished with the Missouri native on the mound with a 15-7 overall record and a sharp 10-3 when he’s been the favorite.

*Chen, Bruce (12-6)

Chen has only been back in the Kansas City rotations since the end of June and frankly has not been effective. Because the Royals offense runs cold and warm, they are dependent on their starters like Chen to keep them in games. They will need the Chen of August’s past to stay in wild card contention.

*Gallardo, Yovani (12-1)

The Brewers ace has not put up the kind of numbers Milwaukee fans have come to expect. In his last 11 starts he’s just 3-2, but Gallardo has lowered his ERA just over a run, which shows progress. The Brew Crew does not figure to win the division without one of their key elements and they need him to own this month like in the past.

Greinke, Zack (13-4)

Manager Don Mattingly is receiving just what he needs from his No. 2 pitcher... consistency. What makes Greinke unique is his approach since he has an array of pitches he can throw for strikes. On days maybe when the fastball lacks the usual juice or location is an issue, he can turn to various breaking pitches to get batters out and keep changing speeds to keep them off-balance.

Hamels, Cole (11-4)

After a slow start coming back from injury, Hamels has been brilliant with a sparking 1.77 ERA in his last 10 starts. He’s averaging better than a strikeout an inning and on the season and has a 1.70 ERA on the road, doing his best on aging team that will be rebuilding go forward.

Lohse, Kyle (11-4)

Though not the official ace of the Brewers, he’s pitched like one all season. The Crew is 15-7 when Lohse takes the ball and they are a gritty 5-2 as underdogs. Milwaukee’s right-hander is bulldog on the road, as he and his teammates are 9-4 away from Miller Park.

Minor, Mike (10-5)

To say this has not been a good season for Minor is an understatement, as his ERA has risen by 3.5 runs in his last 10 starts and the left-hander has surrendered a head-shaking .393 batting average against lefties no less. Despite Atlanta averaging just 3.9 runs a game, they have scored a full run more in Minor’s 16 outings, which why they are .500 when he’s pitched. It’s hard to imagine a quick about face.

*Santana, Ervin (12-5)

This turned out to be a great pickup for Atlanta after suffering heavy losses to its starting staff in the spring. Santana does not overpower opposing hitters, but he’s really kept right-handed batters off balance as they are hitting only .206 against. Santana has always pitched better at home than on the road and be sure to play him this month at Turner Field.

*Scherzer, Max (13-4)

Some baseball pundits wondered if Scherzer found lightning in a bottle last season in winning the Cy Young, but he’s come right back with another solid campaign. Among his strengths is he doesn’t beat himself and has a 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s also known for his relentless determination, making him tough to bet against.

*Shields, James (13-4)

Shields is a true professional and David Price of Tampa Bay credits him for setting the standard for hard work and enhancing his career. The righty might not have the lowest ERA or flashiest numbers, yet he will more often than not hold the opposition to one less run than his team scores, which piles up the W’s.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS

Hernandez, Roberto (4-8)

Since winning 19 games in 2007, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona is 44-72, had two stints in the minors and is primarily a fifth starter trying to hold on to a big league paycheck (Maybe the Cubs could use him). Whatever name he signs on the back of his paycheck these days is definite play against material here.

*Correia, Kevin (2-10)

Though the Twins soft-tossing starter had a good stretch over seven starts beginning on June 10, the fact of the matter is 5-13 with an ERA of 5.06 this season. (As of 7-31-14) Since this is the fourth different team he’s been a starting pitcher for since 2008, don’t expect any real improvement this month.

Hellickson, Jeremy (5-11)

Hellickson began the season on the disabled list due to right elbow surgery and has spent most of the season at Double and Triple-A, trying to work his way back to the big club. He made two spot starts in July and it is not guaranteed he will do anything more than that in August.

Jimenez, Ubaldo (5-12)

Jimenez last pitched for Baltimore on July 5th after suffering a right ankle sprain. He’s scheduled to make two rehab starts in the first part of August before returning to the Orioles. However, the Birds have been playing very good baseball without him and his 3-8 record and 4.52 ERA, thus you have to wonder if he moves back into Buck Showalter’s rotation.

*Maholm, Paul (3-8)

Strictly a reliever and spot starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who has an ERA of almost five and just 34 punch-outs to go along with 27 walks.

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BOB BALFE

NEW YORK METS
(Degrom/Peavy)

There is a reason why Boston got rid of Peavy. Peavy is on the decline in his career and his facing a pitcher in Degrom that has much better numbers this year. The Giants have not faced this guy which is always tough for a team that is struggling to hit the ball. Degrom has been awesome at home and pitching very well as of late. Take the Mets.

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Advanced sports investments

perry's soccer corner

brazil - serie b
8:00pm luverdense mt @ avai sc - under 2.5 -130

czech rep - gambrinus liga
11:00am- hradec kralove @ fc zbrojovka brno - under 2.5 -135

sweden - superettan
10:00am landskrona bois @ ljungskile sk - over 3 -120

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ANDRE GOMES
Soccer Saturday
Arsenal to win @-143 vs. SL Benfica
NOTE: game starts @11:20 AM EST

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MADDUX

10* Seattle Mariners
10* LA Angels

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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Saturday August 2, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Many of the guys traded by Thursday’s deadline should be making their debuts by Saturday as you have to factor in travel time and physicals and all that. Two of the biggest pitchers to be dealt will be on the mound as Jon Lester makes his first career start in the green and gold of the A’s, while Justin Masterson does the same in the red and white of the Cardinals. Here’s a look at those two games and three other interesting matchups.

Royals at A’s (-210, 7.5)

Oakland is now the -400 favorite in the AL West after acquiring Lester from the Red Sox, and it should be quite a festive atmosphere at O.co Coliseum on Saturday. Maybe even a rare sellout. Incidentally, this game was when the team was going to hand out Yoenis Cespedes T-shirts to the first 10,000 fans. Of course, Cespedes was included in the Lester deal to Boston. The promotional giveaway will go on — and most of the shirts will be on eBay soon after. Lester (10-7, 2.52) dominated the Royals on July 20, holding them scoreless on four hits over eight innings. The Royals got bad news recently in that Eric Hosmer will miss perhaps six weeks with a fractured right hand. K.C. is toast now, especially after doing nothing at the deadline. Lefty Jason Vargas (8-4, 3.31) will come off the DL (appendix) to start this one. He’s a tremendous 4-1 with a 1.68 ERA on the road this year. He hasn’t faced Oakland. Jonny Gomes, who also came over in the trade, will usually play against lefties as he hits them well. Not Vargas. Gomes is 1-for-15 career off him with 11 strikeouts. The one hit was a homer.

Key trends: The Royals are 1-4 in their past five against lefties. The “under” has hit in four of those. The under is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in Oakland entering Friday.

Early lean: I think Lester pitches a gem now that he’s back in a pennant race, even though he did love Boston. The better value is Oakland at -105 on the runline.



Blue Jays at Astros (+135, 8.5)

Considering that Baltimore only added lefty reliever Andrew Miller and the Yankees just Martin Prado and Stephen Drew at the deadline, I still like Toronto to win the AL East. The Jays, +200 to win the division at Sportsbook.ag, will have the best lineup once everyone is healthy. Pitching, like the Orioles (-130) and Yankees (+320), will be their main concern. Thus, R.A. Dickey (9-10, 3.91) has to pitch more often like he did last time out when he held the Red Sox to just a run and three hits over seven innings, striking out 10. His previous two starts had not been good. Dickey faced Houston on April 10 and allowed five runs over seven innings. He befuddles Astros All-Star Jose Altuve, who is 0-for-10 off Dickey. Houston goes with lefty Brett Oberholtzer (3-7, 4.30). He has turned his season around, going 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA in his past seven starts. He allowed three runs over 5.1 innings on April 8 in Toronto. Jose Bautista has a solo homer in two at-bats off him.

Key trends: Toronto is 2-9 in its past 11 against lefties. The Jays are 1-5 in Dickey’s past six road starts against teams with a losing record. Houston is 1-5 in Oberholtzer’s past six at home against teams with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in Dickey’s past six on the road.

Early lean: Over at +105. You can never trust that Dickey knuckler.



Angels at Rays (+100, 7)

I’m still stunned the Angels didn’t make a single move before Thursday’s trade deadline. I liked them all season to win the AL West, but now I don’t feel that way any longer because Oakland’s rotation is so much better. That is unless C.J. Wilson (8-6, 4.33) gets back to pitching like a true No. 2 starter. He has been out since July 9 with an ankle problem. Hopefully for Angels backers that was why he had four straight lousy starts before going on the DL. He has just one win since June 8. By far Wilson’s best start of the year was May 17 against the Rays, throwing a complete-game, five-hit shutout. Ben Zobrist has some success off him, hitting .269 with two homers, two doubles and six RBIs in 26 career at-bats. I’m curious to see if the Rays go into a mini-funk after management traded David Price, all but giving up on this year. The new ace is Chris Archer, who starts this one. He pitched in Anaheim on May 16 and blanked the Halos over 5.2 innings. Josh Hamilton is 3-for-7 with a homer, double and three RBIs against Archer.

Key trends: The Rays have won eight straight Game 2s of a series. They are 1-9 in Archer’s past 10 following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 5-0 in Archer’s past five Saturday starts.

Early lean: I do think the Rays will go into a bit of a slide, but Archer is a fine pitcher and Wilson is still a question mark. So I like Tampa as a home dog.



Brewers at Cardinals (-120, 7.5)

I believe the Cardinals are now clearly the top threat to the L.A. Dodgers in the National League after St. Louis acquired Masterson and John Lackey this week. Masterson (4-6, 5.51) makes his NL debut in this one. As you can see by the numbers he hadn’t been that good this year but was in 2013. Masterson hasn’t pitched since July 7, after which he was placed on the DL with a minor knee injury. I wasn’t aware you could trade guys on the DL. Masterson’s career ERA of 3.14 against NL teams is more than a run lower against AL teams. Only a couple of Brewers have faced him. Lyle Overbay is 6-for-11 off Masterson, all singles. Jimmy Nelson (1-2, 4.30) starts for Milwaukee. He has had back-to-back quality starts. Nelson faced the Cards on July 12 and was bombed for eight runs over 4.1 innings. Kolten Wong hit a two-run homer off him.

Key trends: The Brewers are 1-5 in their past six Game 2s of a series. The under is 7-1 in Milwaukee’s past eight road games vs. righty starters. The over is 6-0 in the past six meetings entering Friday.

Early lean: Masterson will be energized by pitching in baseball-mad St. Louis. Take the Cards.



Giants at Mets (-135, 7)

Perhaps the best National League pitcher in the month of July who doesn’t have to initials C.K. and pitch for the Dodgers was the Mets’ Jacob deGrom (5-5, 2.79). He was 4-1 with a 1.39 ERA in the month and allowed just two total runs over his last four starts. If this 26-year-old is for real, the Mets have some scary good young pitching and might be ready to turn the corner as soon as 2015 when Matt Harvey returns. De Grom has never faced the Giants. He has a 1.83 ERA in six home starts. It’s Jake Peavy (1-10, 4.71) for the Giants, making his second start since coming over in a trade from Boston. His teams have lost the past 10 times he has taken the mound. Peavy wasn’t awful in his Giants debut, allowing three earned over six innings against the Dodgers. David Wright does little against the guy, going 2-for-16 with seven strikeouts.

Key trends: The under is 7-2-1 in deGrom’s past 10 against teams with a winning record. The Giants are 7-2 in their past nine against right-handed starters.

Early lean: Under at +105. Either guy could pitch a shutout with two mediocre offenses.

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Ecks and Bacon

"Mr Chalk" won on Friday in MLB in the American League with the Orioles -$137/Mariners.

For Saturday in MLB in the National "Mr Chalk" likes the Mets -$140/Giants (Peavy/DeGrom)

Ben lee is 2-1 +$21 for week Forty 180-212-5 -$2887

"Mr Chalk" is 56-40 -$266 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

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Fantasy Sports Gametime

INTERNATIONAL CHAMPIONS CUP SOCCER

1000* Play Inter +.5 over Roma
1:00 PM EST

1000* Play Manchester City -1 over Olympiakos
3:00 PM EST

1000* Play Manchester United +.5 over Real Madrid
4:00 PM EST

1000* Play Liverpool +.5 over AC Milan
6:30 PM EST

PK=game is a pick—no spread

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Bookiemonsters

POD

Seattle Mariners -105


Money Generators

Arizona Diamondbacks +115

San Francisco Giants +120

San Diego Padres -105

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Soulhat Sports

Oakland Athletics -1.5 +100 (Vargas/Lester)
MLB
3:05 PM CT
4 units