8-16-14

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TRIPLE THREAT SPORTS

(416) 2* Dallas (+) over Baltimore [7pm]

Teams with something to prove are usually solid plays in the preseason, especially when taking teams off of satisfying wins. Pokes come into this off a 20 point loss while the Ravens were a 20 point winner last week, and that points us to the underdog in this one. Dallas will play three QB’s that have started games in the NFL while the Ravens have just one, and we look for Dallas to notch the home win in this one.

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Dave Aquiro

MLB Handicappers
Mike: (9-3) - none
John: (8-3) - LA Dodgers
Jim: (8-5) - LA Angels
BD: (6-3) - Boston
Tom: (5-0) - dbacks/marlins under 7
Tex: (5-1) - Miami
MH: (2-2) - Baltimore
Len: (2-1) - none

Today's Selections
NFL: packers/rams over 41.5
WNBA: liberty/mystics under 143
CFL: Hamilton +3

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King Creole - XNFL OVER / UNDER article

Welcome back Totals players! Our favorite time of the year is once again upon us. In case you weren't aware, we like talking ‘TOTALS’. And there many Over / Under situations in which we can indeed turn a profit on… even in the NFL exhibition season. The games might not count for the players and coaches (in terms of wins and losses)… but they certainly DO for the bettors! We start with the best Home and Road OVER + UNDER teams in the last few seasons. After that, we take a look at individual team OU tendencies broken down by Game Number. We then conclude with some of the more noticeable OU patterns in regards to pre-season series histories. I think we got it all ‘covered’…

1) BEST Home and Road OVER and UNDER teams

Best Home ‘OVER’ teams

Over the last four seasons, the best OVER team at home has been the DENVER BRONCOS. They’ve gone 7-1 O/U (88% Overs) at Sports Authority Field. Average OU line: 38.5. Average total points: 46.8. The average Bronco home game has gone OVER by +8.3 points.

Right behind them at the #2 spot is the DETROIT LIONS. In the same 4-year time frame, the Lions have gone 6-1-1 O/U (86% Overs)… and the average total points in those games has been a very high (for pre-season) 49.0. Last year, both Lion home games went OVER (43 and 49 points respectively).

Taking our database query a little farther back in the past, we find the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS and NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. Both teams have gone 11-4 O/U at home (73% Overs) since the 2006 season. Jacksonville home games have averaged 42.1 PPG in this time frame. New England ‘homies’ have averaged 43.9 ppg in that same 8-year stretch. And both of their home games went OVER last season (47.0 ppg).

Honorable mention: HOUSTON: 5-1-1 O/U last 4 years (42.0)… BALTIMORE: 5-1 O/U last 3 years (54.0!)… CLEVELAND: 4-1-1 O/U last 3 years (43.8).

Best Home ‘UNDER’ teams

The first team is one in which you NEVER want to go ‘Over the Total’ when they are playing at home. That would be the MIAMI DOLPHINS. In the last six seasons, Miami has gone UNDER the Total 83% of the time in their pre-season home games (2-10 O/U). Average combined points: just 27.9 ppg. The average Dolphin home game has gone UNDER by more than a touchdown (-7.8 ppg). I’m sure that the heat and humidity in the month of August down here in South Florida has a lot to do with those consistent low-scoring results.

Next up is the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. In their home games, Kansas City has gone 6-17-3 O/U (74% Unders) over the last 13 seasons. When the OU line in these Chief home games has been greater than (>) 34 points, the results improve to 3-15-3 O/U, with an average of 30.8 combined PPG. But exercise caution. The worm might be turning as three of their last four home games went OVER the Total in the last two seasons.

Our third solid UNDER team at home is the PITTSBURGH STEELERS. Their home games have gone 8-19-1 O/U (70% Unders) since the 2000 season. When favored at home by more than a field goal (-3.5 or higher), these Steeler games have gone 2-11 O/U… with average of just 28.2 combined PPG.

Honorable mention: WASHINGTON: 7-17 O/U in the last 12 seasons (1-6 O/U when the OU line is > 38 points).

Best Road ‘OVER’ teams

In the last five seasons, the best road ‘OVER’ team has been the OAKLAND RAIDERS. Their road games have averaged 44.8 total ppg in the same time span, and the games have gone 9-1 O/U (90% Overs). That’s a ‘total reversal’ (pun intended) from 2000-2007, when Raider road games went 3-13 O/U.

Also on a more recent note, we can’t overlook the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. They’ve gone a perfect 5-0-1 O/U in the last three seasons when playing on the pre-season road (47.1 combined PPG). Going back a little further, the numbers for Philly are still consistently strong at 18-9-2 O/U (67% Overs) since the 1999 season. Last season, Eagle ‘roadies’ had 55 and 47 total points scored.

Our third strong ‘OVER’ team on the pre-season road is the HOUSTON TEXANS. They’ve gone 16-5-1 O/U (79% Overs) in their road games over the last 11 seasons. Average total PPG in those games was 42.6. In the last two seasons, the Texans have gone 3-1 O/U. We’ll see if those high-scoring results continue this year with a new Head Coach at the helm.

Honorable mention: ARIZONA: 5-1 O/U L3Y (44.3)… NEW ORLEANS: 7-2-1 O/U L5Y (43.5)… NY JETS: 9-3 O/U L6Y… CHICAGO: 10-4 O/U L4Y.


Best Road ‘UNDER’ teams

We start our fourth query into our NFL pre-season database with the NEW YORK GIANTS. In the last f10 seasons, Giant road games have averaged just 34.5 total ppg… and have gone 5-14 O/U (74% Unders). If you remove the New England Patriots from the Giant’s pre-season schedule. The results improve to 2-12 O/U versus any other team (86% Unders).

Next up, when it comes to low-scoring road games… the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS jump right out at us. The Niners have gone 8-17 O/U (68% Unders) on the pre-season road since the 2001 season. Right behind them is the BALTIMORE RAVENS. They’ve gone UNDER the Total 65% of the time over the last 13 seasons, with a record of 9-17-1 O/U. But at one point, these numbers were actually 5-17-1 O/U. They’ve gone a perfect 4-0 O/U in the last two years on the road. So the ‘automatic-UNDER’ wager for Baltimore roadies has passed its prime.

Honorable mention: CAROLINA: 2-6 O/U L4Y (33.0).


2) PRE-SEASON Week-by-Week OU TEAM TENDENCIES

Week One (OU record and average PPG)
St Louis: 6-0 O/U (42.5)… Houston: 4-0 O/U (37.5)… Indianapolis: 4-0 O/U (50.5)… Seattle: 4-0 O/U (41.0)… Cleveland: 3-0-1 O/U (44.3)… Atlanta: 8-1 O/U (45.2)… Chicago 8-1 O/U (38.4)… NY Jets: 6-1 O/U (40.4)… New England: 4-1 O/U 43.6)… Philadelphia: 4-1 O/U (45.2).

Pittsburgh: 1-8 O/U (27.6)… New Orleans: 1-7 O/U (31.9)… San Francisco: 1-6 O/U (29.6)… Kansas City 1-4 O/U (31.0)… Green Bay: 3-10 O/U (26.0)… Tampa Bay: 2-6 O/U (30.1)… Arizona: 3-8 O/U (29.5)… Baltimore: 3-7 O/U (31.8)… Buffalo: 3-7 O/U (32.0).

Week Two
Chicago: 4-0 O/U (57.0)… Cincinnati: 4-0 O/U (45.0)… New England: 4-0 O/U (43.3)… Green Bay: 7-1 O/U (46.4)… Seattle: 7-1 O/U (46.4)… Tampa Bay: 6-1 O/U 942.4)… Houston: 6-1-1 O/U (47.4)… Denver: 4-1 O/U 941.8)… Jacksonville: 4-1 O/U (45.8)…Oakland: 4-1 O/U (43.2)… New Orleans: 4-1-1 O/U 945.0).

San Francisco: 0-4 O/U (25.5)… Washington: 1-6 O/U (32.7)… Minnesota: 1-4 O/U (33.6)… Carolina: 1-3 O/U (26.2)… Tennessee: 1-3 O/U (37.5)… San Diego: 2-4 O/U (33.7)… Kansas City: 4-8 O/U (29.6).

Week Three
Denver: 6-0 O/U (49.2)… New Orleans: 5-0 O/U (54.8)… Oakland: 5-0 O/U (55.0)… Pittsburgh: 4-0 O/U (48.0)… Baltimore: 3-0 O/U (63.7!)… Jacksonville: 3-0 O/U (62.3!)… San Francisco: 3-0-1 O/U (47.5)… New England: 5-1 O/U (47.8)… Buffalo: 4-1 O/U (51.2).

Miami: 1-5 O/U (27.0)… NY Giants: 2-9 O/U (31.1)… Tampa Bay: 1-4 O/U (33.8)… Dallas: 1-4 O/U (32.2)… NY Jets: 2-8 O/U (29.8)… Kansas City: 2-7-1 O/U (35.8)… Chicago: 1-3 O/U (36.8)… Cincinnati: 103 O/U (37.5)… Cleveland: 2-4-1 O/U (39.3).

Week Four
NY Jets: 6-0 O/U (45.5)… Philadelphia: 6-0 O/U (43.8)… New Orleans: 4-0 O/U (49.5)… St Louis: 4-0 O/U (45.5)… Minnesota: 4-1 O/U (49.6)… Tampa Bay: 4- O/U (43.2)…Baltimore: 3-1 O/U (42.3)… Buffalo: 3-1 O/U (47.8)… Detroit: 3-1 O/U (47.8)… Green Bay: 6-2 O/U (39.8).

Cincinnati: 0-3 O/U (34.7)… Indianapolis: 0-3 O/U (34.7)… Oakland: 0-3 O/U (25.0)… Seattle: 0-3 O/U (25.0)… Atlanta: 1-6 O/U (27.0)… Carolina: 1-6-1 O/U (32.0)… Pittsburgh: 1-4 O/U (34.2)… Dallas: 1-3 O/U (33.8)… New England: 1-3 O/U (32.2)… NY Giants: 1-3 O/U (32.3).


3) PRE-SEASON Series History OU PATTERNS (by date)

Denver vs Seattle (8/7): 4-0 O/U (43.3)
Jacksonville vs Tampa Bay (8/8): 5-1 O/U (42.2)
Green Bay vs Tennessee (8/9): 4-0 O/U (46.0)

New England vs Philadelphia (8/15): 4-0 O/U (48.3)
Miami vs Tampa Bay (8/16): 0-6 O/U (24.3)
Denver vs San Francisco (8/17): 1-3 O/U (33.0)

Carolina vs New England (8/22): 1-3 O/U (31.2)
NY Giants vs NY Jets (8/22): 3-10 O/U (32.5)
Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh (8/22): 6-2 O/U (41.0)
Dallas vs Miami (8/23): 3-1 O/U (39.8)
Baltimore vs Washington (8/23): 1-4 O/U (32.3)

Atlanta vs Jacksonville (8/28): 1-3 O/U (31.0 combined PPG)
Buffalo vs Detroit (8/28): 3-1 O/U (47.8)
Carolina vs Pittsburgh (8/28): 1-6-1 O/U (32.0)
Cincinnati vs Indianapolis (8/28): 0-3 O/U (34.7)
New England vs NY Giants (8/28): 1-3 O/U (32.2)
NY Jets vs Philadelphia (8/28): 6-0 O/U (43.8)
Oakland vs Seattle (8/28): 0-3 O/U (25.0)
Tampa Bay vs Washington (8/28): 3-1 O/U (44.5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Rosica

60 Dime XNFL Atlanta Falcons

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Brandon Lang

80 Dime Mariners

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Craig Davis

50 DIME
Preseason Dog Shocker
Arizona Cardinals

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Jeff Benton
50 DIME
Winner # 9 of 10


Interleague Lock Total
OAK / ATL Over

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Trace Adams

Top-Rated
1000♦
Winner # 19 of 29

Baltimore Orioles

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Scott Delaney

150 DIME
Blowout of the Year

Washington RL

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Brad Wilton

50 Dime
Winner # 10 of 15
28 of 42 Overall


Preseason Best Bet
Minnesota Vikings

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Allen Eastman

7* Seattle (MLB) -110

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Richie Baccellieri

NFLX BIG PLAY:

DALLAS COWBOYS

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BigBetTiger


NFL (413) NY GIANTS +2.5 -110

NFL (419) BUF BILLS +2.5 -105

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LT LOCK


Cowboys +2
Bills +1
Jets +3


Braves -110
Twins +100

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Vegas Sports Informer

Seattle-Detroit under 6 1/2 3*


7* Ryan Bader -170 (MMA)
7* Minnesota - 6 1/2 ( WNBA)