8-21-14

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hottest road pitcher takes the mound
Justin Hartling

Corey Kluber will take the mound for the Cleveland Indians on an incredible road streak. The Indians are 6-0 in Kluber's last six road starts.

Kluber has only allowed six runs in thos starts while striking out 47.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

De La Rosa surprisingly strong for totals bettors
Justin Hartling

Rubby De La Rosa has been a strong play for under bettors this season. The Boston Red Sox have an over/under record of 2-8-2 in De La Rosa's 12 starts this season.

De La Rosa has only given up an average of 2.5 runs per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

West coast pitcher dominating opponent
Justin Hartling

The San Diego Padres have found no success against Zack Greinke since he has joined the Los Angeles Dodgers. In Greinke's past five starts against the Padres, the Dodgers are undefeated.

Greinke has given up only 15 hits and six runs during those starts against the Padres. All those games have gone under, with an average combined score of 4.2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

After dropping their first two preseason games on the road, the Eagles return home on Thursday night to host the Steelers. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3). Here are all of this week's NFL preseason picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 21 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (8/20)

Game 251-252: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 117.637; Philadelphia 123.507 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 54 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Thursday Triple Play has the MLB Game of the Week from a 100% System, a 91% Early Totals system and the NFLX Week 3 Power system side in the Steelers at Eagles game. MLB Top total cashes out last night. Free MLB Totals Play below.


On Thursday the free MLB Totals Play is on the Under in the Houston at NY.Yankes game. Rotation numbers 959/960 at 1:05 eastern This game fits a solid League wide totals system that has played to the under 31 of 44 times long term. The system pertains to home favorites with a posted total of 8 or less that lost as a home favorite at -200 or higher and scored 2 or less run son 5 or more hits, vs an opponent off a road dog win that scored 5 or more runs and played error free ball. Houston has won 2 straight here and has D. Keuchel on the mound and he has a respectable 3.17 road era this year. B. McCarthy counters for the Yankees and he has a career 2.57 era vs Houston and a 1.93 era in his last 3 starts which all stayed under the total. Look for this game to stay under here today. On Thursday we have a Big MLB Game of the Week from a Perfect system, there is also the NFLX Week 3 Power system play in the Steelers at Eagles game an early MLB Total system. Last night our Top MLB Totals Play cashed. More Damage on Thursday. Jump on this Big Triple play card now. For the free MLB Play take the Houston and New York to stay under the total today. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns


8* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL UNDER Rays/Tigers


8* ROAST, Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 8
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 5-0 straight up in Week 8
-- Favorites went 3-2 ATS in Week 8
-- Road teams posted a 3-2 SU record in Week 8
-- Road teams posted a 3-2 ATS record in Week 8
-- The 'under' went 3-2 in Week 8

Team Betting Notes

-- Toronto (3-5) has won two of the past three games, and they're also 2-1 ATS over the span. The Argonauts have opened up a solid game-and-a-half lead in the East Division. The Argos had a rare two-game week, losing to the BC Lions (5-3) in the second game Sunday, 33-17.

-- The Lions have won three straight games for the first time this season, and they have gone 3-0 ATS during the impressive span. The game went 'under' snapping a two-game 'over' streak. The under is now 6-2 for the Lions this season.

-- Montreal (1-6) slipped up for the fifth consecutive game Saturday againts Saskatchewan (5-2), but they covered the nearly two-touchdown spread in the 16-11 loss against the defending champs.

-- The win for the Roughriders was their fourth straight, but they failed to cover for the first time since July 12. The 'under' has also cashed in four of their past five outings.

-- Calgary (6-1) covered on the road at Hamilton (1-6), maintaining a tie for first place with Edmonton (6-1). The Stamps have covered three of the past four, and seven of their seven this season. The 'under' is also 5-2 for Calgary, as the under hit against the TiCats after two straight overs.

-- The Esks struggled against expansion Ottawa (1-6), winning just 10-8. Edmonton has alternated covers and non-covers in each of the past four games. The constant with the Esks is the 'under' cashing in six of their seven outings.

-- After being in first place two weeks ago, Winnipeg (5-3) has fallen on hard time and dropped back-to-back games. After starting out 3-0 ATS, the Blue Bombers are 2-3 ATS over the past five.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting News and Notes Week 8
By Ian Cameron

Here are my CFL Week 8 News & Notes as I take a look at each team from a betting perspective.

Toronto Argonauts (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Toronto had a busy Week 8 by playing two games in the span five days. They took advantage of their bye week by trouncing Winnipeg, 38-21, but the tables turned when BC took advantage of eight days off and really wore down the Argos late en route to a 33-17 win. Quarterback Ricky Ray and his new look receiving corps -- due to multiple injuries -- fired on all cylinders against Winnipeg as Ray tossed four touchdowns. But it was a different story against BC’s stout defense with the Argos scoring just a lone touchdown while also coughing up a few turnovers. Toronto can’t be held to too much blame for the BC loss as the schedule really conspired against them but it doesn’t get easier with a daunting road trip to Edmonton (6-1) on deck.

Montreal Alouettes (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)

The change to quarterback Alex Brink didn’t result in a win as the Alouettes notched only 11 points in the loss to Saskatchewan but I did spot some positives with Brink under center. He managed to run out of the pocket for a few first downs and was able to move the football effectively between the 20’s. Unfortunately the red zone acted as a mouse trap for the Alouettes throughout the game where drives stalled and/or they turned the football over. A Brandon Whitaker fumble inside the 10-yard line set the tone early and they never recovered. The defense bounced back with their best performance in weeks but it was still not quite good enough. Montreal will be on the road for a second straight week against a rested Winnipeg team that has been off since last Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if an extra week of work can put Brink in a better position to succeed. Note that Winnipeg’s defense gave up an uncharacteristically high 38 points against Toronto last time out.

Ottawa RedBlacks (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)

I give Ottawa credit as they competed toe-to-toe with one of the league’s best teams but ultimately couldn’t come up with its second win of the season. Edmonton prevailed 10-8 in a game dominated by defense and missed opportunities on offense. The box score will show that Ottawa quarterback Henry Burris didn’t have a good game with only 18 completions and 8 points but the number of dropped passes by Ottawa’s receivers was staggering. The defense had one of its best games of the season albeit against an Edmonton team that had some key injuries on offense. Ottawa earned a wire-to-wire pointspread cover as touchdowns underdogs at home despite the 10-8 loss. They’re catching +9 this week vs. the 6-1 Calgary Stampeders. The spot is certainly in Ottawa’s favor with a second straight home tilt while Calgary plays its second of back-to-back road games in the Eastern Time Zone. But there is a massive talent gap between the two teams as evidenced when Calgary demolished Ottawa 38-17 at McMahon Stadium two weeks ago.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)

Hamilton had yet another chance to win a close game at home against Calgary but a devastating fourth quarter injury to quarterback Dan LeFevour completely changed the complexion of the game. He left and didn’t return and now there is speculation his season may be done with a suspected torn ACL. With Hamilton trailing 23-20 with three minutes left, backup Jeremiah Masoli threw a horrific INT and Calgary later punched in a game clinching touchdown with mere seconds left. That crushed Hamilton bettors (including myself) holding +3, +3.5 or +4 as Calgary went on time win, 30-20. I’m not convinced Masoli is the answer which is a concern moving forward. Hamilton is now 1-6 despite a handful of tough losses by a touchdown or less and enter their bye week needing an answer under center. Zach Collaros is still an unknown as to when he will return and with LeFevour’s season possibly being done it’s either Masoli or their pair of practice roster quarterbacks, Stephen McGee or Jacory Harris. Hamilton’s is likely looking at the trade market with quality and experienced backups like Drew Tate (Calgary) and Kevin Glenn (BC) as potential candidates.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)

In my mind there was no doubt Winnipeg was due for regression following a 5-1 start. They have since lost back-to-back games against Saskatchewan and Toronto but certainly have a favorable chance to get back in the winning column against the reeling Montreal Alouettes on Friday. The Blue Bombers defense had its worst game of the season last week allowing 38 points and four touchdown passes to Ricky Ray and the Argos. Winnipeg has a couple of key defensive injuries to contend with but get a much needed boost offensively with the expected return of receiver Nick Moore. Montreal was competitive last week despite the 16-11 loss in Saskatchewan covering the number as double digit road dogs.

Edmonton Eskimos (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS)
Edmonton was far from sharp in its ugly win over Ottawa but a win is a win and good teams typically find ways to when their A-game isn’t present. The offense was bogged down as quarterback Mike Reilly had by far his worst game of the season and the absences of running back John White and wideout Fred Stamps certainly hindered a lot of their explosiveness. However, the contestant with his team has been their dominating defense which held true to form again as they smothered Ottawa’s offense for the entire 60 minutes. It’s becoming quite clear that if you have a mediocre offense, you are going to have a difficult time scoring in bunches against Edmonton. Edmonton returns home to face the best of the bad lot East Division when they take on Toronto.

Calgary Stampeders (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)

The difference between the Stampeders now compared to earlier in the season is the improvement of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. Earlier this season, they were winning games in spite of Mitchell but now he is making an impact. His poise in the pocket continues to improve and he has done a very good job keeping Calgary’s offense productive despite cluster injuries at the skill positions. The defense remains strong allowing less than 20 points per game so to see the offense play at a higher level makes this team a very tough one to beat right now. Calgary might finally welcome back running back Jon Cornish this week vs. Ottawa.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)

The Saskatchewan Roughriders were lethargic for the majority of their lackluster 16-11 win vs. Montreal after big wins over Toronto, Ottawa and Winnipeg. It was a classic letdown as they didn’t sniff a pointspread cover as nearly two touchdown favorites. The defense was solid but the offense never got in any sort of rhythm. Quarterback Darian Durant relies on a solid ground game to help complement the passing attack but the Riders’ top two receivers, Chris Getzlaf and Taj Smith, were blanketed for much of the game. The fact that the Roughriders still won shows how superior the West remains over the East. Saskatchewan will clash with BC (5-3) in a pivotal game within the ultra-competitive West Division.

BC Lions (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)

One of the favorites to win the Grey Cup before the season started is finally getting their act together. BC notched a third straight win against Toronto on Sunday, 33-17. The Lions defense was tremendous but the offense was mediocre partially because of an odd decision by head coach Mike Benevides to pull Kevin Glenn for two offensive possessions in the second quarter. Travis Lulay, who stepped in for Glenn, was expected to be the starter prior to the season but needed more time to recover from offseason surgery. Now that he is healthy, he has already been given snaps in an actual game. Glenn came back in the game in the third quarter but was never the same and most of BC’s points came via defense and special teams. I would be surprised if Glenn doesn’t start this week but I wonder if the “musical chairs” will hurt the team’s chemistry and rhythm moving forward.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 9
By David Schwab

The West Division continued its dominance over the East this past week in the CFL with a 4-1 straight-up record in a rare five-game inter-division schedule. Toronto had to pull double duty coming off a Week 7 bye starting with last Tuesday’s 38-21 rout of Winnipeg as a three-point home favorite. The total in that game went OVER the 51-point closing line.

Last Friday’s lone game saw Edmonton claw its way to a 10-8 victory over Ottawa as a six-point road favorite. The total came nowhere close to the 49-point line. This past Saturday, Calgary continued to impress with a 30-20 win against Hamilton as a 2½-point road favorite with the total staying UNDER the 53-point closing line. Later in the day, Saskatchewan ran its SU winning streak to four games with a 16-11 victory over Montreal as a hefty 13-point home favorite. That total stayed UNDER as well against a closing betting line of 49½ points.

Toronto was back at it on Sunday as a three-point home underdog and it came up well short against British Columbia in a 33-17 loss that stayed UNDER the 53-point closing line.

Friday, Aug. 22

Montreal (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) at Winnipeg (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Point-spread: Winnipeg -6½
Total: 50

Game Overview

It has been a dismal start to what appears to be a dismal season for the once proud Alouettes, who were the class of the CFL just a few years back. They are the lowest scoring team in the league with an average of just 15.6 points a game and their defense has allowed 30 or more points in four of their last five games.

Winnipeg posted a fast start out of the gate, but that pace has slowed quite a bit with back-to-back losses to Saskatchewan and Toronto the last two weeks. Drew Willy continues to light it up at quarterback with a CFL-high 2,158 passing yards wrapped around a solid completion rate of 65.5 percent.

Betting Trends

The Blue Bombers won the first meeting this season 34-33 in early July as three-point road underdogs with the total going OVER the 48 ½-point closing line. They are now 5-1 both SU and against the spread against their former East Division rivals in the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last four games in this series.

Saturday, Aug. 23

Toronto (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) at Edmonton (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS)

Point-spread: Edmonton -7.5
Total: 48

Game Overview

Despite just three SU wins in its first eight games, Toronto is the toast of the East Division with a two-game lead over the other three teams. Ricky Ray continues to play at a high level with 1,984 passing yards and a league-high 12 touchdown throws, but the Argonauts’ defense has not held up its end of the bargain by allowing an average of 26 points a game.

Edmonton has kept pace with Calgary in the West title race behind an offense that has the top receiver in the CFL in slotback Adarius Bowman and the highest scoring kicker in Grant Shaw. Bowman has 532 yards in catches and Shaw has accounted for 76 points with his leg so far. The Eskimos do have some depth concerns up front with offensive linemen Selvish Capers and Justin Sorensen both listed as questionable for this game.

Betting Trends

The will be the first meeting between these two this season, but Toronto brings a SU three-game (2-1 ATS) winning streak against Edmonton into Saturday’s matchup. The total went OVER in all three contests. The total has actually gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings in this series.

Sunday, Aug. 24

Calgary (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) at Ottawa (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)

Point-spread: Calgary -8
Total: 49

Game Overview

The Stampeders have been stomping their way through the league by outscoring their opponents by a combined 77 points in their first seven games. They are averaging 27.3 PPG behind a bruising running game and their defense has been the stingiest in the league by allowing just 16.3 PPG. Jock Sanders has been a force on special teams with 617 return yards on the year.

Things have gone pretty much as expected for the expansion RedBlacks with a 1-6 SU start, but they have looked especially bad against the teams from the West. Just two weeks ago they were more than doubled-up in a 38-17 loss to Calgary after getting torched by Stamps’ quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell for 289 passing yards and three scoring strikes.

Betting Trends

Calgary easily covered the 14-point spread at home in that first meeting and the total went OVER the 49-point number. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the Stampeders first seven games this season and it has gone OVER in three of Ottawa’s last four games.

Saskatchewan (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) at British Columbia (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Point-spread: BC -3½
Total: 52

Game Overview

Do not look now, but the defending Grey Cup Champs are building-up a head of steam heading into this critical matchup in the West Division title race. The Roughriders have won their last four games by a combined score of 114-51 and they have not allowed more than 17 points in any of the four contests.

BC has won its last three games including an impressive 25-24 victory over Calgary as a four-point underdog on the road to start this run. Quarterback Travis Lulay is close to 100 percent after missing the first six games with a shoulder injury, but so far Kevin Glenn has been able to hold onto the starting job. He teamed up with Emmanuel Arceneaux for a 53-yard scoring strike this past Sunday to seal the win over Toronto.

Betting Trends

The Lions beat Saskatchewan 26-13 on the road in mid-July as five-point underdogs to improve to 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings in BC and overall it has stayed UNDER in 11 of the last 12 games between the two division rivals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Week 9 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett

The Calgary Stampeders lead the CFL betting ranks at 5-2 ATS through the first eight weeks of the season as they head into a game against the Ottawa RedBlacks - who have just two ATS victories in seven games so far in their expansion campaign.


Fri Aug 22 - Montreal at Winnipeg

Last 10 Meetings: Winnipeg 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS | OU 6-4

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have gone 3-0 both SU and ATS in their last three games against the Montreal Alouettes as those teams meet for the second time this season on Friday night. Winnipeg edged Montreal 34-33 as a 3-point road underdog on the CFL odds at the sportsbooks in the first meeting of the season between the two teams on July 11. That was the third OVER result in their last four matchups.

Sat Aug 23 - Toronto at Edmonton

Last 10 Meetings: Edmonton 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS | OU 6-4

The OVER has paid out for totals bettors in each of the last three games between the Toronto Argonauts and the Edmonton Eskimos as those hit the gridiron together for the first time this season on Saturday afternoon. The Argonauts went 2-0 SU in their two games against the Eskimos last season, with each team picking up at ATS victory for their supporters on the CFL betting lines at the online sportsbooks.

Sun Aug 24 - Calgary at Ottawa

Last 10 Meetings: Ottawa 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS | OU 1-0

The Calgary Stampeders already have one SU and ATS victory against the Ottawa RedBlacks this season as those teams battle in Week 9 CFL betting action on Sunday afternoon. The Stampeders won and covered a big spread in their first meeting of the season against the RedBlacks back on August 9, with Calgary grabbing a 38-17 victory and covering the big 14-point spread at home. That game was an OVER play for totals bettors.

Sun Aug 24 - Saskatchewan at B.C

Last 10 Meetings: B.C. 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS | OU 1-9

The UNDER continues to be the play for totals bettors in games between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the B.C. Lions as those teams close out the CFL Week 9 betting slate on Sunday night. The Lions topped the Roughriders 26-13 as a 5-point road underdog on the CFL odds in the first meeting of the season between the two teams on July 12. That was the ninth UNDER result in the past 10 games between the teams.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFL | CALGARY at OTTAWA
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (OTTAWA) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, when playing on a Sunday
26-4 since 1997. ( 86.7% | 21.6 units )

CFL | MONTREAL at WINNIPEG
Play On - Underdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (MONTREAL) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record
17-9 since 1997. ( 65.4% | 0.0 units )

CFL | SASKATCHEWAN at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SASKATCHEWAN) versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite
35-10 since 1997. ( 77.8% | 24.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle Thursday

NFL Preseason Betting News And Notes - Week #2
Watching the 2014 National Football League preseason isn't much different from navigating through highway construction. The ride is frustrating. The league's emphasis on penalizing defenders for downfield contact has slowed the action of the game. Officials also seem to be emphasizing more hands-to-the-face penalties. Penalty flags are up to 23.4 per game during this preseason of penalties (10 more per game than the start of the past preseason).

One experiment is coming to an end this week. The two-week practice of having extra points from the 15-yard line ended following the Washington-Cleveland game Monday night. The league wanted more drama on extra points, which had become an almost automatic play. Eight extra points (more than in the entire 2013 regular season) were missed in the first 30 preseason games, and Friday's Oakland-Detroit matchup provided an example of the impact of a missed 33-yard extra point. Lions kicker Nate Freese missed an extra point in the first quarter. That ultimately allowed the Raiders to win in the final six seconds by getting a touchdown and the elongated extra point, which prevented overtime in a 27-26 Raiders win in a game that lasted 3:26 and had 18 penalties marched off.

Here is what we learned in the second full week of preseason games:

•The Champs Mean Business: The Seattle Seahawks looked ready to defend their title with a 41-14 victory over San Diego. They rushed for 243 yards. Russell Wilson was efficient, completed 11 of 13 passes and ran for two touchdowns. The Seahawks' crowd was loud and in midseason form. The defense flew to the football.

•Bradford, Romo Are Back: St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford looked sharp coming off ACL surgery. He was 9-for-12 against Green Bay, his passes were crisp, and he seemed to have firm control of the offense. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, who is returning from back surgery, completed four of five passes for 80 yards against Baltimore, including three tosses to Dez Bryant for 59 yards. The fact that Romo could get the ball downfield to Bryant offers hope for the offense. As for the defense, well, that remains a negative story.

•Big Ben Seems To Be On Same Page As His Offensive Coordinator: The no-huddle looks natural for Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. It gives him the ability to call some of his own plays. Watching him complete eight of 11 passes for 128 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo was a treat. He looked like he was having fun in Todd Haley's offense.

•Jets Better Worry About Their Pass Defense: Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton was 8-for-8 for 144 yards against the cornerback-strapped New York Jets defense. The Jets' front office has taken plenty of criticism for not being more aggressive finding veteran corners. Now, because of injuries, safety Antonio Allen is playing corner. The front half of the season is loaded with games against some of the best quarterbacks in football, led by Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers. Rex Ryan knows how to put together great defensive plans, but his hands are tied if his corners aren't good enough.

•Giant Concerns On Offense: During the Hall of Fame game, New York Giants starter Eli Manning looked OK throwing short passes. Over the past two weeks, he looks lost. He was 1-for-7 in Indianapolis on Saturday. Expect a tough week of practice to get things right as Eli heads into his final tune-up against the Jets on Friday.

•Question Marks In Atlanta, Chicago: While the Atlanta Falcons have improved their toughness and ability to win battles at the line of scrimmage, they aren't particularly deep in the trenches. They can survive losing Sam Baker to a knee injury by possibly moving Jake Matthews from right tackle to left, but one more major injury along the line could set everything backward.... Even though the Chicago Bears didn't game plan, they have to be concerned about a defense that gave up 75- and 41-yard scoring drives to Jacksonville's Chad Henne.... Rams halfback Isaiah Pead became the 11th player to blow out an ACL since the start of training camp.

•Rookies Are Getting It Done: Teddy Bridgewater did a nice job of sparking a come-from-behind victory for the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday night, but Matt Cassel looked too efficient at the beginning of the game to lose the starting job. Cassel was 12-for-16 with a TD pass.... Houston Texans linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, the No. 1 overall pick, exploded into the backfield on two rushes. The Texans might have indeed drafted the best player in the 2014 draft.... Jets safety Calvin Pryor was impressive with his hits and playmaking ability on several plays Saturday night.... Blake Bortles continues to look like the best rookie quarterback in the 2014 draft, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are wise to not start him early.
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Handicapping The Third Exhibition Game
Systems Analyst James Vogel

I hate the National Football League Preseason. It is dull. Misleading. Endless. It is a tease before the real season begins, and it just doesn’t mean enough to justify the time and effort involved in it. They could shorten it to two games, and the only ones who would shed a tear are the owners who get to sell full-price tickets to half-value games. From a betting perspective the preseason is no better. You can’t typically predict who will play and for how long, and you can never be sure of how much teams care about winning the games. It is, in short, a betting nightmare.

There is one minor exception, though — while the other three preseason confrontations are a total waste of time from a betting perspective, there are some aspects of the third preseason game that can occasionally make it worthwhile. That game is the one that teams most often take the most seriously and the one in which starters are likely to play the most. It is still far from a regular contest, but it is much closer to the first two preseason games, and especially the ridiculous waste of oxygen that is the final preseason encounter.

So, what makes this game different, and more attractive, to bettors? Here are four keys:

•Starters Actually Play: It’s not uncommon in the first two games for starters not to play at all or to only play a few possessions before they shut it down for the night. In most cases this third game is where those starters want to play more to smooth the rough edges and get ready for when games really matter. It is rare for a top-level starter to play the whole game unless they have a particular need to, but they will likely go much deeper than they normally would. It’s still less than a regular game, but it at least makes it easier to predict what we will see.

•Playbooks Are Closer To Real: No coach is going to show off all the wrinkles and tricks in a playbook in the preseason. In the third week, though, we will see more plays and more variations than we have up to that point. Coaches need to make sure that the players know what is expected of them and that they understand what they are asked to do. The deeper and more complex the playbook, the more fairly matched offensive and defensive units are, and the more likely that the team with an edge will come out on top.

•Fights For Starting Roles Intensify: In a lot of cases the third week is when races for starting spots that have not yet been settled will be decided. Players who are vying for those roles are going to be giving absolutely their best efforts, and they will be leaving it all on the field. Being able to anticipate a high level of effort is very useful for bettors — especially if that race is between players in a key position.

•Coaches Care: There is no coach who cares about winning a preseason game nearly as much as a regular-season game. In the third game, though, coaches will at least be likely to care about the outcome of the game more than they have up to that point. When a coach doesn’t care about the game at all then it is very hard to predict how the game will turn out. It makes sense, then, that the more coaches care, the more predictable the outcome of the games is likely to become.

But Let’s Not Forget The Game Doesn’t Matter
It can be easy for bettors to get too invested in this game. It has been forever since we last saw a meaningful game, and all we want is to bet on good football. While this game is by far the best we have seen so far, it’s still likely a long way from what we will see in the future. You can allow yourself to get excited relative to what you have already been subjected to, but don’t fool yourself into thinking that this is a football game in all of its glory.

--Coaches Can Focus On More Than The Scoreboard: It is exceptionally rare that a preseason win or a loss will have any real impact on the coach and his career standing. He doesn’t need to win, but he does need to make sure that his team is as ready as they can be when the games do actually matter. That means that it could be quite possible for a coach to be perfectly satisfied with a game even though his team loses badly. He might have aspects of the game he is focused on, and success in those aspects might not lead to a win.

--Rust Runs Deep: In a lot of cases this is the first extended action for starters. If they have played already, they still haven’t played much, and a lot of their action will have come against lesser opposition. When you haven’t played in a meaningful game in eight months you are all but certain to be rusty, and that rust will impact some players differently than others. You can’t just look at the names on the back of the jersey when handicapping these games, because what you will see from players in November is likely very different from what you will see from them in August.
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Top Five ATS Teams From Last Season
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner

The one thing you can be sure of is that things in the National Football League are always changing. It would be easy to handicap this league if teams that were strong against the spread one year stayed that way the next year. That obviously isn’t the case. Sometimes a team loses key players and they struggle as a result — both on the scoreboard and at the betting windows. Other times the teams are just as strong as they were, but the betting public is far more interested in them and the value just disappears. Or sometimes other teams just improve more from a betting perspective. Whatever the reason, this is a good time to look back at the Top 5 teams against the spread in the NFL last year to evaluate their chances of repeating that success this year:

•Seattle Seahawks(11-5 ATS, 68.7%): It is going to be very tough for this team to continue their betting success. There is a lot working against them. Most obviously, they are the defending Super Bowl Champions. Trying to win it all again has proven very difficult for most teams in recent years, and that might not be an exception here, either. The public was also very impressed with this team last year, and they have given every indication that that love affair won’t be ending soon. Superstars like Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman will keep the team in the spotlight. They also play in a brutally-tough division, and that will make both winning and covering spreads tougher than usual.

Contrasting with that, though, there are some things working in favor of the team. Their very talented roster is largely intact, and they are built to compete again. They were far from a fluke when they won last year, so they do not need to overachieve again to win unlike some recent champions. They are well-coached and have maintained their core coaching staff despite the success. They have also had a history of betting success — last year was the second straight year in which they led the league at 11-5 ATS.

"I don’t expect them to be quite this strong again — they are favored to win the NFC, so the public will be heavily on them. They are not likely to be a betting disaster, though."

•San Francisco 49ers (11-5 ATS, 68.7%): How much do you trust Colin Kaepernick to stay healthy? That’s a big factor in your outlook for this team, because the backup QB situation is just a disaster. There are also some real concerns about the health of the defense — not to mention availability due to suspension. There are reasons to be nervous. This is a very good team, though, and they will be hungry to make some waves after a couple of disappointing seasons — or at least the end to the seasons. It feels like the public is not as fond of this team as they are of Seattle. That’s good news for bettors. Despite their betting success last year there is a chance for some value again this year.

•Arizona Cardinals (11-5 ATS, 68.7%): I like this team a lot — more than some people do judging by their 40/1 odds to win it all at bovada. The division is obviously brutal, and Carson Palmer isn’t getting any younger. The coaching is exceptional, though, and the team has been built well. Last year a lot of their betting success was the result of being better than the public thought they were — they were overlooked in the shadows of the two giants of the NFC West. That could certainly happen again, and if anything this team has improved from last year. I don’t expect this team to disappoint bettors.

•Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1 ATS, 66.6%): Marvin Lewis — a truly terrible coach — is still in charge. Andy Dalton now faces the immense pressure of being not just a quarterback who hasn’t dealt with pressure when the games matter, but now a highly-paid one. The division is more competitive than it was last year. I could go on, but the point is clear — I don’t like the chances of this team repeating their betting success at all.

•Denver Broncos (10-5-1 ATS, 66.6%): They face massive expectations, have changed a lot in the offseason, have a massive target on their backs, and their quarterback, who is more crucial to the fate of this team than any other player in the league, is far from young and a hit away from real issues. That’s a lot of reasons to be nervous. Of course, every single one of those things was also true last year. I was equally concerned, and I couldn’t have been much more wrong.
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Camp Spotlight: Skill-Position Battles
Systems Analyst William Stillman

AFC EAST

•Wide Receiver: We all know that Sammy Watkins will be the Bills' top receiver this season. But who will be EJ Manuel's next favorite targets? Mike Williams has come on strong in training camp and is the No. 2 receiver. That was Robert Woods' role last season, but now Woods is locked in a battle with Chris Hogan to round out Manuel's top trio of pass-catchers.

•Wide Receiver: The best and most competitive battle in training camp for the Dolphins continues to be the slot receiver position. This will be a valuable spot in Bill Lazor's new offense, and candidates Brandon Gibson, Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews all are making plays. Gibson continues to hold a lead because of seniority. But Landry has a lot of potential and could play eventually.

•Running Back: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and James White are vying for top billing. It very well could be a situation where the Patriots feature a different running back on a week-to-week basis, and White -- a fourth-round pick from Wisconsin -- shouldn't be overlooked as a significant contributor in 2014.

•Wide Receiver: The Jets still haven't decided on a No. 2 wide receiver, the starter opposite Eric Decker, but it figures to be a rotation among Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson and Stephen Hill. Technically, Kerley is listed as a starter, but he's better in the slot than on the outside. Nelson is consistent and has the skill set to be an every-down receiver. Hill has the most upside, but he's still not a reliable target. It's still early, but none of the three draft picks has emerged as a legitimate option. Look for a revolving-door approach, based on personnel groupings and game situations.

AFC NORTH

•Running Back: There's no skill-position battle for the Ravens right now, but there could be one by the middle of September. That's when running back Ray Rice comes off his two-game suspension. The one-cut style of backup Bernard Pierce seems to be a more natural fit to Gary Kubiak stretch running scheme. If Pierce has a fast start, the Ravens may have a decision to make by Week #3.

•Wide Receiver: There are two really compelling skill-position battles in Cincinnati this season at running back and receiver. I'm picking the receiver battle as the most intriguing because it's difficult to discern right now just who will occupy the final receiver spots on the depth chart. Dane Sanzenbacher, James Wright and Cobi Hamilton could all make the team. Sanzenbacher has been versatile and Wright has been better than expected. Hamilton, however, has been inconsistent.

•Quarterback: There is only one skill position battle worth watching with the Cleveland Browns, and it's one of the most-watched competitions in the league. Many factors go into the decision about who starts at quarterback, but the way Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer play in Washington on Monday night might be most crucial. The two have been near even for much of camp, and things could be settled with the way they play against Washington. If it's not settled, the Browns have an interesting decision: Does a tie favor the veteran, or the rookie?

•Running Back: Le'Veon Bell is going to start, but the Steelers did not sign LeGarrette Blount to primarily provide injury insurance. Coach Mike Tomlin has made it clear that both Bell and Blount will figure prominently in the running game. The Steelers are serious about running the ball early and often this season, but Bell will have carries siphoned away from him because of Blount's ability to wear down defenses.

AFC SOUTH

•Running Back: Who plays behind running back Arian Foster matters greatly to the Texans given Foster's age and injury history. Jonathan Grimes, Alfred Blue and Ronnie Brown seem the prime competitors for the role. Grimes began the season on the non-football injury list, but jumped to the top of the field as soon as he returned. Blue is a promising sixth-round pick who might have been a star at LSU were it not for an injury early in his college career.

•Running Back: The starting running back position is Trent Richardson's to lose. The Colts wouldn't have it any other way because they gave up a first-round pick to acquire him. Ahmad Bradshaw is lingering over his shoulder if there are any signs that he's struggling. Bradshaw has shown he can produce when given the opportunity. He had the Colts' best rushing game of the season last year, 95 yards against San Francisco.

•Running Back: Offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch called back Toby Gerhart the "lead dog" in the Jaguars' backfield, and Jordan Todman, Denard Robinson, and Storm Johnson are battling to establish a hierarchy behind Gerhart. Fisch said there will be somewhat of a committee approach with Gerhart on top, but his carries will obviously be impacted by whether the Jaguars use a two-, three-, or four-man committee. It appears the Jags are leaning toward a three-man committee, which should mean 15-18 touches per game for Gerhart.

•Running Back: While veteran Shonn Greene is at the head of the line for the Titans' running back-by-committee approach, rookie Bishop Sankey is the team's most well-rounded back. Sankey is on a good growth curve, and I expect he will earn the most touches over the course of the season, with Greene and Dexter McCluster making their contributions as more situational players.

AFC WEST

•Running Back: With a deep roster on a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance, the one place where a player could carve out a little room for himself is at running back. Montee Ball is the unquestioned starter, but after Ball things are undecided. Ronnie Hillman has the edge as the third-down, change-of-pace guy, but C.J. Anderson and undrafted rookie Juwan Thompson have each gotten some practice snaps with the starters as well.

•Wide Receiver: The Chiefs have several candidates to choose from, but look for Junior Hemingway to get a large share of the snaps as their slot receiver. At 6-1 and 225 pounds, Hemingway is much bigger than the traditional slot receiver. But he does well getting open in traffic and offers the Chiefs some versatility because of his size and blocking ability.

•Running Back: Darren McFadden knows the Oakland Raiders' playbook and personnel better, but Maurice Jones-Drew has proven to be the more durable running back. The bigger Run DMC is better at creating in space, while the shiftier but much smaller MJD is more effective between the tackles. Jones-Drew has the edge, but the biggest question in this battle is how the Raiders use each back's skill set.

•Running Back: Chargers head coach Mike McCoy said Ryan Mathews remains the every-down back for San Diego. However, with the addition of Donald Brown in free agency along with third-down back Danny Woodhead coming off a career 2013 campaign, Mathews likely will see a decrease in carries. Mathews is in a contract year, so he'll be properly motivated to do the best with whatever touches he receives.
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NFC EAST

•Running Back: Coach Jason Garrett said DeMarco Murray is the leader of a running back committee but has traits of a bell cow. While the Cowboys like Lance Dunbar, Murray will continue to see the overwhelming majority of snaps when games start. During the past few seasons, the Cowboys have said they wanted to be a physical rushing team but moved away from the running game once the season started. In training camp, the Cowboys have shown more of a willingness to stick to the run. In their first preseason game, six of the first eight plays were rushes. Murray has noticed increased work in practices, leading him to believe there will be a greater focus on the run.

•Tight End: The only real battle in Giants camp for a starting skill position is at tight end. Larry Donnell, an undrafted second-year player from Grambling, looks to have the edge and is playing with the first team. Former Patriots tight end Daniel Fells could push him now that he's back from knee injury. Adrien Robinson continues to be a big disappointment.

•Wide Receiver/Tight End: The most interesting competition in the Eagles' camp is for playing time at the offensive skill positions. In that sense, rookie wide receiver Jordan Matthews is competing not only against first-team slot receiver Brad Smith. Matthews is also competing against starting wide receivers Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin, as well as tight ends Brent Celek and Zach Ertz. Coach Chip Kelly wants to have versatile, big-bodied players who can line up anywhere, block effectively, catch the ball and then run with it afterward. Matthews started out as the second-team slot receiver. He could replace Smith or Cooper (or take snaps from the tight ends) by the time his rookie season is over.

•Running Back: The Redskins wanted to upgrade their third-down back situation, but they might end up going with the same guy as last season: Roy Helu. In camp, Helu has looked the best of the backs vying for that spot. Rookie Lache Seastrunk has a long way to go in protection and Silas Redd is not as shifty as Helu. Chris Thompson's durability makes him questionable. Helu is the best of this bunch at running routes and handling the protection schemes. Hard to see him losing the job.

NFC NORTH

•Wide Receiver: With Marquess Wilson expected to miss time in the regular season because of a broken collarbone at camp, competition has opened up for the No. 3 receiver position. Eric Weems appears to be the favorite but doesn't exactly stand out as much as he exhibits consistency. Josh Morgan provides flash plays and run-after-catch ability, but he lacks Weems' consistency. Josh Bellamy, Micheal Spurlock and Chris Williams are also in the mix, but expect the team's decision to come down to Weems and Morgan.

•Running Back: The most intriguing position battle has little to do with actual playing time, but more an allocation of snaps and touches between Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. Both figure to receive a lot of touches as new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi will likely use many backs in a bunch of different roles. Bell may actually receive more carries as a straight runner and could be more valuable in goal-line situations. Bush is going to be a piece used out of the backfield and also out wide so his receptions could skyrocket.

•Tight End: In the search for Jermichael Finley's replacement, it's a close race between Andrew Quarless, Brandon Bostick and rookie Richard Rodgers. Ultimately, Rodgers, a third-round pick, might end up as the top tight end among the group long term. But so far in camp and through the first preseason game, Bostick looks like he's the most ready-made replacement for Finley's big-play ability in the passing game.

•Quarterback: The one major skill position battle is at the most important spot on the roster. Matt Cassel has received most of the first-team snaps in training camp and appears to be comfortably ahead of rookie Teddy Bridgewater. Cassel should start the Vikings' second preseason game on Saturday. Bridgewater has cooled after an impressive start, as the Vikings' defenses in practice have gotten more complex. Short of a major surge from the rookie late in camp, it appears Cassel will be the starter to begin the regular season.

NFC SOUTH

•Running Back: The running back position has been the most intriguing battle. Starter Steven Jackson remains sidelined with a hamstring injury but is expected back for the opener. Jacquizz Rodgers stepped into the No. 1 role, but coaches are high on fourth-round draft pick Devonta Freeman. Speedy Antone Smith looked the best of the backs in the preseason opener. If anything, the Falcons have enough capable guys to keep Jackson fresher and possibly allow him to be more of a goal-line threat.

•Wide Receiver: The top three wide receivers are set in Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant. It gets interesting at No. 4. Brenton Bersin had the early edge because of his sure-handedness. Tavarres King may have passed him with a strong week of practice and four catches in the preseason opener. The staff would love for Tiquan Underwood to step up because of his blistering speed, but he's been too inconsistent. For now, it's King.

•Running Back: Although Mark Ingram looked terrific in the preseason opener, I expect a pretty even split between Ingram, Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas all season (with Thomas in more of a third-down role). The good news is that the Saints' run game looks improved overall.

•Wide Receiver: Chris Owusu continues to work as a starting wide receiver opposite Vincent Jackson. But the Bucs gradually have been giving rookie Mike Evans more reps with the first team. Look for that trend to continue and for Evans to be the starter by the beginning of the regular season.

NFC WEST

•Running Back: While all of Arizona's starting skill positions are pretty much set, the best position battle is for the No. 2 running back between second-year back Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer. The two have split time behind starter Andre Ellington during training camp but with the Cardinals' new two-back system, the second job is valuable. Taylor has played in between the tackles while Dwyer is a power back who has proven to be dangerous in the red zone.

•Wide Receiver: This is a new problem for the San Francisco 49ers. Last year, the 49ers got little help from non-starting receivers and they were last in the league in using three-receiver sets. However, they traded for veteran Stevie Johnson and signed veteran Brandon Lloyd and the two have battled to be the top reserve receiver. Both have looked good in camp. Johnson has the edge as the No. 3 receiver ; I think he is capable of catching 60 balls. Lloyd will likely be an active No. 4 receiver and a prime candidate to get quality playing time if there is an injury above him.

•Wide Receiver: The Rams have six receivers vying for playing time, with two or three likely to be on the field most of the time. Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin and Brian Quick are the leaders in the clubhouse and it doesn't look like that will be changing. Stedman Bailey would likely be among the top two were it not for a four-game suspension to start the season.

Running Back: As far as the starters go, there isn't a skill-position battle for the Seahawks. But there is a battle going on for which running back will back up Marshawn Lynch between Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. Turbin is listed as No. 2 on the depth chart, but Michael is the more explosive runner and will win this job if he continues to prove he can do the job as a blocker in pass protection.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#251 PITTSBURGH @ #252 PHILADELPHIA
Line: Eagles -3, Total: 50.5

The Philadelphia Eagles open their home slate of preseason games at the newly-renovated Lincoln Financial Field (7:30 PM EST) on Thursday night as they welcome Keystone-state rival Pittsburgh to the City of Brotherly Love. Last week, Philadelphia fell in a shootout to the New England Patriots, 42-35, although quarterback Nick Foles bounced back from a subpar two-interception performance against Chicago by going 8-of-10 for 81 yards and a touchdown.

Foles' backup, Mark Sanchez, was even more efficient, connecting on 11-of-12 attempts for 117 yards with two touchdowns, although his one misfire was an interception for the Eagles, who have dropped two straight in the preseason so far. Second-round draft choice Jordan Matthews tallied nine receptions for 104 yards and LeSean McCoy carried the ball six times for 19 yards in the defeat. Defensively Cary Williams returned a Tom Brady interception 77 yards for a touchdown. "There is really a preseason template that we're running on," Eagles defensive coordinator Bill Davis said. "We're going to run our base defenses. And this is an evaluation phase. Sometimes evaluation looks painful, but sometimes it looks promising."

The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off their first exhibition win after Shaun Suisham's 20-yard field goal as time expired lifted Pittsburgh over the Buffalo Bills 19-16. Ben Roethlisberger played the first half for the Steelers, ending up 8-of-11 for 128 yards and tossing first-quarter touchdown strikes to Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton. Brown led all receivers with 93 yards on just a pair of catches.

Linebacker Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh's first-round pick, made his debut after missing the previous week with a knee bruise and really impressed, tallying 11 solo tackles, a pass defensed and an interception which he returned 27 yards. "I'm just excited to be back out on the field," Shazier told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Just to be out there and show everyone what I can do. You're always nervous your first game. The NFL was the dream of my life. I finally got the opportunity to do it."

The Steelers will be making their fourth preseason appearance at Lincoln Financial Field since the facility opened in 2003. Pittsburgh has defeated the Eagles in six of the last 10 preseason matchups dating back to 1997.

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 8 times, while the underdog covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 4 times. 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 26 times, while the underdog covered first half line 15 times. *No EDGE. 0 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (PITTSBURGH) - after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.5, Opponent 13.3 (Total first half points scored = 24.9)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (45-16).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Betting Recap - 8/11-8/17
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

Favorites went 7-2 straight up
Favorites went 5-4 against the spread (ATS)
Home teams posted a 5-4 SU record
Road teams posted a 5-4 ATS record
The 'under' went 7-2

Team Betting Notes

The 'under' went 18-8 in the final two weeks of the WNBA regular season.

Phoenix (29-5) set a WNBA record with its 29th victory of the regular season in the finale in Seattle (12-22). The Mercury was on fire in the win-loss column, but they wrapped up the regular season just 2-7 ATS over their final nine.

The Mercury will meet Los Angeles (16-18) in the first round of the WNBA playoffs. LA won two of the final three games, with that only loss coming against Phoenix. The Sparks were 3-0 ATS in the final three, and the 'under' cashed in 12 of the final 17 games of the regular season.

Phoenix went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in five regular season meetings against Los Angeles.

Minnesota (25-9) will likely give Phoenix its biggest run for the money, but they must get by San Antonio (16-18) first. The Lynx went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against the Stars this season, dropping the final meeting in San Antonio by a 92-76 score on Aug. 15.

Atlanta (19-15) held on for the top seed in the East, but they definitely tumbled down the stretch. The Dream won just four of their final 14 regular season games after a 15-5 start. They're face Chicago (15-19) in Round 1 of the playoffs.

The Sky went 7-5 SU in its final 12 games, and they were 6-5-1 ATS during the span. The constant was the 'under', which went 15-6 in the final 21 games.

In head-to-head meetings this season, the Sky went 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS against the Dream, winning and covering both meetings at home.

Indiana (16-18) and Washington (16-18) will meet in the first round, with the Fever as the two-seed. In a strange twist, the visitor won and covered in each of the four regular season meetings.