8-21-14

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Burns' VERY EARLY TOTAL BREAKFAST CLUB: Game: Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays Aug 21 2014 1:10PM
Prediction: under This is an 8* play
Burns' Thursday MLB ROAST!:Game: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Aug 21 2014 10:10PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 8* play

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Bob Balfe

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

How focused can the starting two running backs for Pittsburgh be if they are caught in a car together with a ton of pot. Don’t get me wrong I think this country should worry about more severe things than guys catching a little puff from time to time, but laws are laws and these guys are dumb dumbs. I don’t know if the Steelers are going to play these two tonight, but there is a good chance they hold them out. If that is the case you have to love the Eagles chances with the rest of the Steelers backs having no experience. The Eagles have yet to get their high powered offense going, but trust me it is coming. There is no way the same unit from last year with a few upgrades is not going to prosper. This team just doesn’t need to give anything away on film. Tonight they should put up some points on declining Steelers Defense.

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SPORTS WAGERS


L.A. Angels -1½ +138 over BOSTON


Their leading hitter at .294 is Brock Holt, who bats leadoff and is currently in a 0-8 slump. The bottom four in the order are hitting .194, .250, .225 and .214 respectively. Cleanup hitter, Yoenis Céspedes, the dude they traded Jon Lester for, is batting .252 on the year but has just five hits in his past 27 AB’s and hasn’t had more than one hit in a game in his last 15 games. There’s a good chance that both Mike Napoli and David Ortiz will sit this one out, as both have minor injuries and Napoli missed last night. The Red Sox are down to their third string catcher, David Ross. Xander Bogaerts has one hit in his last 19 AB’s. Boston has dropped four in a row and five of six with its only victory over that span coming against the Astros. Rubby De La Rosa gets this start and he’s done his best work at Fenway Park. In six starts at home, De La Rosa is 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA. However, that is where the positives end, as only one of his past seven starts were of the pure quality variety. De La Rosa has a 14/15 BB/K split over his past 27 innings. He has a WHIP of 1.93 over his past five starts. His swinging strike rate is getting worse, as batters are starting to lay off his pitches because he can’t throw strikes. De La Rosa fooled some Angels on August 10 in Anaheim but he’s not going to fool them again now that they’ve seen him. Over his last seven starts, De La Rosa has a 1.72 WHIP and a 5.83 xERA. His actual ERA of 3.79 on the year and 3.25 ERA at home is nothing but fool’s gold.


By contrast, Matt Shoemaker has been very consistent for a rookie pitcher, allowing three earned runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Four of his six starts on the road have resulted in pure quality starts. Shoemaker is 5-1 on the road with an unappealing 5.70 ERA but his high ERA away from the “Big A” is a direct result of unfortunate hit and strand rates. In 42 innings since July 1, Shoemaker is 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.24 xERA, 8.6 K’s/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 44% groundball rate. The Angels have a big edge offensively, they have an edge on the mound with a pitcher that throws strikes opposing one that doesn’t and from a state of mind standpoint, L.A.’s edge is massive. Get out the brooms.




Atlanta -1½ +109 over CINCINNATI


The Reds have two wins over their past 12 games and both victories occurred with Johnny Cueto starting. Cincinnati has also lost five straight and the pitching staff has allowed 38 runs over that span. The bullpen is not only garbage but they’re also running on fumes and they figure to be needed early in this one. Enter David Holmberg, who is ready to serve as an emergency call-up due to last Sunday's doubleheader. His only other start this season was also the result of a doubleheader. Holmberg started the back end on July 8, allowing five earned runs and three jacks in just 2.2 innings. His results at AAA-Louisville don't warrant a promotion. In 17 starts at Louisville, covering 87.1 innings, Holmberg went 1-6 with a BB/K split of 32/50, a 4.64 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Holmberg is a lefty and the Braves .267 BA against southpaws on the road is the second best mark in the NL. After this game, Holmberg will be headed back down to Louisville and he may never return.


Julio Teheran is a case study in why post-hype targets can be profit centers. This former top prospect's K surge came with full swing and miss support and his three years of improving control tells us he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, even if xERA points towards some minor regression. In 177 innings, Teheran has a BB/K split of 41/153. Current Reds have just seven hits in 38 career AB’s against Teheran for a BA of just .184. There’s a good chance that Teheran will be throwing some easy innings if the Braves score early. Judging by Holmberg’s brutal profile, only severe good fortune will prevent the Braves from scoring early and often.


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Sports Insurance Adjusters

Washington -1.5 +115
Detroit -120
LA Dodgers -1.5 +105
Giants -1.5 +105
Atlanta -1.5 EV


Free Play Cleve -140
(3*) Unless otherwise noted

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Doc Sports


7* Tampa Bay Rays +100

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DIAMOND DOG SPORTS

#951: Diamondbacks: +170 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Miley/Gonzalez

#961/962: Indians/Twins: Over 7.0 (+100) (3*)
Listed Pitchers: Kluber/Hughes

NFLX

Passing

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ROOSTER

NY Yankees ML

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BRANDON LANG

40 DIME Tigers vs Rays Under

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PHILLYGODFATHER

Under 9 – LA Angels vs Boston Red Sox

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VEGAS WINNING CREW

MLB 50 Dime Play – Cleveland Indians ML

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Strike Point Sports

3* - Cleveland / Minnesota Under 7

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Mike Davis

5* - SF Giants -165

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UNDER Umpire Streakers


#951 UNDER 7.5 -110 AZ/WAS (1.10u to win 1.00u)
Hoye 9 over/14 under Last 23 games (60.9%)

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Falcon Sports

LA Angels -125 listing Shoemaker/DeLaRosa

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Tony the sports betting "Champ"

Cincinnati {A} bet - This is an official MLB system bet that passes all the filters of the system