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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAACF REPORT
THURSDAY, AUGUST 28th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Week #1 Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NCAA College Football News and Notes - Week #1
•Nick Saban is not ready to make a call at starting quarterback and lists Blake Sims and transfer Jacob Coker as co-starters for Saturday's season opener against West Virginia. Coker, a transfer from Florida State who arrived on campus in the spring, is a big pocket passer with very good arm strength. He was presumed the starter, but Sims has more time in the offense and his comfort level was evident in fall camp. Coker (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) was Jameis Winston's backup at Florida State. He is a pro-style quarterback akin to AJ McCarron, whereas Sims was used mostly in a read-option niche role. "Whatever pitcher starts the game isn't necessarily going to pitch nine innings," Saban said on Monday. A determination on the starter might not come until game day.
•Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller will have season-ending shoulder surgery on Tuesday, coach Urban Meyer announced. Miller, who is right-handed, tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder last week. Dr. James Andrews will perform the surgery. Miller has been a standout athletic quarterback for the Buckeyes when healthy. Last season as a junior, he threw for 2,094 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 12 games. He also ran for 1,068 yards with 12 TDs. It was his second straight season rushing for at least 1,000 yards. Ohio State opens the season Saturday against Navy in Baltimore. J.T. Barrett, a redshirt freshman who has not taken a snap in college, will start in place of Miller.
•Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker is sidelined for six to eight weeks with a broken bone in his left foot, coach Bobby Petrino announced. Parker, a senior, was scheduled to have surgery on Monday. The earliest Parker could return is Oct. 11 against Clemson. Parker was injured during practice Friday night. He traveled to Charlotte, N.C., on Sunday to be examined by Dr. Robert Anderson, who specializes in foot and ankle injuries.
NCAACF Opening Line Report - Week #1
College football is finally going to have a playoff this year – sort of, with four teams getting a shot at the National Title come season’s end. A few teams that expect to be in the mix will get things rolling when the 2014 campaign kicks off this week, led by Thursday night’s clash between #21 Texas A&M and #9 South Carolina. The host Gamecocks opened as 12-point chalk one month ago, with the number now at 10.5 as Aggies bettors have moved the needle a little bit, despite losing star quarterback Johnny Manziel to the National Football League.
But South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro says his place hasn’t seen any line shift. “We painted the game at -11 and have never moved off of it,” Vaccaro said. “This is a great way to start off the season, with two name-recognition teams. But there’s been nothing to make us move the line either way.”
•Clemson @ Georgia (-7.5)
This border battle was also the season opener for both teams last year, with Clemson winning a shootout 38-35 as a 1.5-point home underdog. The Bulldogs are ranked 12th in the preseason, and the Tigers enter Saturday’s game at No. 16. Vaccaro said the South Point opened the game at Georgia -8.5, but a $2,000 bet on Clemson tightened it a notch to 8.
“In a game like this, there will be plenty of support for both sides – both are marquee teams,” he said. “I feel like there’s a buzz with Georgia, with (coach) Mark Richt in a make-or-break season. It’s the right number, right where it should be.”
•Florida State (-17.5) Vs. Oklahoma State
Defending national champion Florida State is coming off a spot-less 14-0 season, and with Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston back at quarterback, the Seminoles are a consensus #1 in the preseason polls. The game is (8:00 PM EST) Saturday night at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. “We have the game at -18. It’s all small stuff. If the number goes up any higher, the smarts will get on Oklahoma State,” Vaccaro said, noting he indeed expects the number to jump.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the game went to -20.” Despite the Cowboys playing not too far from home? “I’ll bet a ham sandwich that there are as many Florida State fans in the stadium as Oklahoma State fans,” Vaccaro said.
•Wisconsin Vs. Louisiana State (-4)
It’s another neutral-site game, with both squads traveling to Houston’s NRG Stadium, home of the National Football League’s Texans. And it’s another top-25 battle, with LSU ranked 13th and Wisconsin 14th. “There’s not that much play on the game yet,” Vaccaro said. “Once again, it’s a great matchup, and it will draw plenty of attention, with a great time slot (9:00 PM EST). I’m gonna guess it closes at LSU -3.5. There will be plenty of Wisconsin money on game day.”
•Ohio State (-14) @ Navy
Ohio State opened as 19-point favorites for this quasi-neutral-site game, at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium. But that was before the Buckeyes lost superstar QB Braxton Miller for the entire season due to a shoulder injury. “We opened at 17.5, went to 18, saw the injury report and went back to 12.5, and now we’re back to 14,” Vaccaro said. “I don’t know where this one’s going. If it goes up anymore, then you’re saying Miller is only worth 2 to 3 points. I would consider him worth more than that.”
NCAAF Line Watch - Week #1
Each and every week during the 2014-15 College Football season, StatSystems Sports Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out. Note: Odds courtesy of LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.
Spread To Bet Now
•Fresno State vs. USC (-21, Total: 58)
Southern Cal opened as 22-point home favorites, but the line has come down to a favorable number to back the Trojans. These two teams closed last season by playing in the Las Vegas Bowl and USC cruised to a 45-20 win. Fresno State lost QB Derek Carr to graduation along with five other offensive starters. With their best team in over a decade (11-2), the Bulldogs were no match for the Trojans.
USC has a new head coach in Steve Sarkisian, and reports out of Los Angeles say the team is focused and motivated for the upcoming season. The Trojans have a wealth of talent on hand, and their defense will be outstanding. This is a big statement game for the Trojans, and it comes against a team they simply dominate at every position. Lay the three touchdowns now before the sharp bettors take out the good number.
Spread To Wait On
•Arkansas (+20.5, Total: 57.5) @ Auburn
Auburn is currently a 20.5-point home favorite over Arkansas, but this line is likely to go higher as we get closer to kickoff. Public bettors often remember what they last saw, and that was Auburn a minute away from winning the National Championship last season.
Arkansas slogged through a miserable 3-9 season last year; the Razorbacks were 0-8 in SEC play, including a 35-17 home loss to Auburn. But in their second year under head coach Bret Bielema, Arkansas will be a much improved team. We expect this line to reach the important number of 21, and at that price and preferably with another half point, we suggest taking Arkansas in this game.
Total To Watch
•Clemson @ Georgia (-7.5, Total: 57.5)
This total opened at 58, and early money has come in on the Under. Clemson has to replace a lot of their potent offense of a season ago (40.4 points per game), and they will be starting an inexperienced QB under center. Clemson’s defense returns seven starters from a unit that only gave up 22.2 points per game in 2013.
Georgia’s offense is also an unknown commodity, and that unit has been fighting nagging injuries during camp. The Bulldogs’ defense has the potential to be one of the best in the country, and they should limit Clemson’s production in this game. This total is quite high considering the makeup of both teams, and it will likely continue to drop as we get closer to game day.
Easiest And Hardest Opening Schedules
One of the most discussed aspects of NCAA College Football is scheduling and, more specifically, how a teams' schedule can have a great impact on their season. StatSystems Sports Systems Analyst William Stillman take a look at some teams that will take it easy at the beginning of the season and some that will jump right into it...
Easiest Schedules
•Arizona State Sun Devils
Opponents: Weber State, at New Mexico, at Colorado
The Sun Devils' opponents combined to go 9-27 last season. The game to watch from a betting perspective is the Colorado game because the Buffs will be better than last year and ASU may be looking forward to their next opponent, UCLA.
•Mississippi State Bulldogs
Opponents: Southern Miss, UAB, at South Alabama
These teams also combined to go 9-27 with Southern Miss and UAB splitting just three wins between them. The game to watch is South Alabama because it's on the road and the Jaguars tend to play their opponents close, only losing one game by double digits in 2013.
•Duke Blue Devils
Opponents: vs. Elon, at Troy, vs. Kansas
With this opening schedule, the loss of offensive coordinator Kurt Roper will be minimized as his replacement will have time to ease into position. Keep an eye on the Troy game as they played the Blue Devils close in 2013, only losing by seven in Durham.
Hardest Schedules
•Clemson Tigers
Opponents: at Georgia, South Carolina State, at FSU
Even though there is a cupcake stuck in the middle, it doesn't get much tougher than this. Florida State has won the last three games in this series in Tallahassee against Clemson. Georgia will be looking to return the favor from last year when the Tigers won by three in Death Valley. From a betting perspective, remember that Georgia is 2-7-2 ATS in it's last 11 games and both Clemson and Georgia have a recent history of going over on points.
•Georgia Bulldogs
Opponents: vs. Clemson, at South Carolina, vs. Troy
The opener against Clemson will have a potential impact on the college football playoff and the last two times Georgia traveled to Columbia to play South Carolina they came up short. One thing to keep in mind is that Georgia gets a week off after the Clemson game while the Gamecocks will host East Carolina.
•South Carolina Gamecocks
Opponents: vs. Texas A&M, vs. East Carolina, vs. Georgia
One thing Carolina's first three opponents have in common is that they can score points in a hurry and that will be something to watch with the Gamecocks losing Connor Shaw this year. Another thing to watch is the East Carolina matchup as it's a classic trap game stuffed in between two conference encounters with one of those being a rivalry game. Don't forget that the Pirates beat two ACC teams last year and only lost to Virginia Tech by five.
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#133 TEXAS A&M @ #134 S CAROLINA
TV: 6:00 PM EST, SEC Network
Line: South Carolina -10.5, Total: 58
The post-Johnny Manziel era is set to get underway for No. 20 Texas A&M, which faces a brutal season-opening test at South Eastern Conference rival and ninth-ranked South Carolina on Thursday night. Even though the Aggies must replace the former Heisman Trophy winner, many will argue that the Gamecocks endured an even bigger loss than Manziel with the departure of all-world defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, the top overall pick in the National Football League draft. It will mark the first-ever meeting between the schools.
South Carolina, which never has won an SEC championship, is coming off three consecutive 11-win seasons under legendary head coach Steve Spurrier and was the preseason choice to win the East Division. Texas A&M was expected to struggle upon moving from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012 but, buoyed by the wondrous talents of Manziel, the Aggies went 20-6 in their first two seasons and capped each with a bowl victory. Sophomore Kenny Hill will be in the spotlight after narrowly beating out Kyle Allen as Manziel's successor.
•ABOUT TEXAS A&M (2013: 9-4, 4-4 SEC): The Aggies led the SEC in scoring (44.2 ppg) and total offense (538.4 yards) for the second straight season, so the onus will be on Hill, who played sparingly as a freshman and threw for 183 yards on 16-of-22 over parts of four games. Senior Malcome Kennedy is the top returnee at wide receiver, but Ricky Seals-Jones and explosive freshman Speedy Noil are elite talents and will be counted on to replace NFL first-round pick Mike Evans, while Trey Williams, Tra Carson and Brandon Williams head a deep running back corps. Cornerback Deshazor Everett leads a defense that was singed for 151 points over the final four games last season and will hope for immediately production from freshman defensive end Myles Garrett, among the nation's top recruits.
•ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (2013: 11-2, 6-2 SEC): The Gamecocks also have a change under center, with longtime backup Dylan Thompson poised to take the reins after backing up Connor Shaw the past three seasons. Although fifth-year senior Thompson is more of a pure passer compared to dual-threat Shaw, South Carolina is expected to rely heavily on a ground game featuring Mike Davis, a preseason first-team SEC selection who rumbled for 1,183 yards last season and will be running behind one of the top offensive lines in the conference. While replacing Clowney will be impossible, the Gamecocks also suffered other key losses on the defensive side and will need big seasons from nose tackle J.T. Surratt, cornerback Brison Williams and freshman linebacker Bryson Allen-Williams.
•PREGAME NOTES: South Carolina and Alabama are the only South Eastern Conference programs to limit opponents to fewer than 21 points per game in each of the last three seasons.... Texas A&M is 10-2 away from home under coach Kevin Sumlin the past two seasons.... Davis has been bothered by a rib injury, but Spurrier expects him to be at "full speed" for the opener.
•KEY STATS
--TEXAS A&M is 12-30 ATS (-21.0 Units) as a road underdog since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 19.9, OPPONENT 37.0.
--TEXAS A&M is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in road games in the first half of the season since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 26.8, OPPONENT 25.9.
--S CAROLINA is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
The average score was S CAROLINA 10.2, OPPONENT 7.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1992. Note: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TAM is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--TAM is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in August.
--TAM is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
--SOCAR is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--SOCAR is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--Under is 4-0 in SOCAR last 4 games in August.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 6 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 8 times, while the underdog won straight up 3 times. 13 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *Edge against the total =OVER.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 5 times, while the underdog covered first half line 4 times. *No EDGE. 8 games went over first half total, while 5 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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#135 WAKE FOREST @ #136 LA MONROE
TV: 7:02 PM EST, ESPNU, ESPN3
Line: Wake Forest -1, Total: 45.5
Dave Clawson's most recent rebuilding project gets underway Thursday evening, when Wake Forest travels to Louisiana-Monroe with hopes of avenging last season's two-point loss. Clawson has turned around programs at Fordham, Richmond and Bowling Green, but he has his work cut out for him at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons lost six offensive starters and three All-Atlantic Coast Conference defensive players from last year's four-win team and have a tough opener on the road against a dangerous small-conference opponent.
Louisiana-Monroe was able to shut down the Demon Deacons' ground game in last year's 21-19 win in Winston-Salem, N.C. John Wolford takes the reins of the offense from four-year starter Tanner Price and will be the first true freshman to start his first game at Wake Forest since Mike McGlamry in 1974. The Warhawks also have a new signal-caller, with North Carolina State transfer Pete Thomas taking over for Kolton Browning.
•ABOUT WAKE FOREST (2013: 4-8): The Demon Deacons lost all of their top offensive players from a team that averaged a meager 18.3 points a year ago. Wolford won the starting quarterback job in the preseason and brings high expectations after breaking a litany of state records as a high school star in Jacksonville, Fla. The defense has a better foundation anchored by a strong secondary but will need the inexperienced offense to keep it off the field more than it was last year.
•ABOUT LOUISIANA-MONROE (2013: 6-6): Thomas, who played two seasons at Colorado State before transferring to N.C. State, has passed for 5,936 yards in three years as a starter at the two previous stops. He's a good fit for Todd Berry's spread attack and has the Warhawks' leading receiver back in Rashon Ceaser (65 receptions, 964 yards, five TDs). The defense returns nine starters from a unit that improved as the season went on, but the two losses were big ones - leading tackler Cameron Blakes and safety Isaiah Newsome, who returned two of his team-high four interceptions for touchdowns.
•PREGAME NOTES: Thomas faced the Demon Deacons last season with N.C. State, completing 27-of-43 passes for 257 yards and a touchdown in a 28-13 Wolfpack loss.... The Warhawks are opening at home for the first time since 2007 and have won their home opener five of the last six years.... Wake Forest RB Dominique Gibson, the team's top returning rusher, is suspended for the first three games for violating team rules.
•KEY STATS
--WAKE FOREST is 31-15 UNDER (+14.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 25.1, OPPONENT 21.2.
--LA MONROE is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was LA MONROE 16.6, OPPONENT 35.6.
•COACHING TRENDS
--DAVE CLAWSON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the first two weeks of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CLAWSON 27.3, OPPONENT 20.2.
--TODD BERRY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was BERRY 26.3, OPPONENT 33.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA MONROE is 1-0 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST since 1992.
--LA MONROE is 1-0 straight up against WAKE FOREST since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--LA MONROE is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against WAKE FOREST since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WAKE is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Under is 8-2 in WAKE last 10 road games.
--Under is 21-7 in WAKE last 28 games overall.
--ULM is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--ULM is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in August.
--ULM is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 29 times, while the underdog covered the spread 19 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 35 times, while the underdog won straight up 17 times. 43 games went under the total, while 30 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 26 times, while the underdog covered first half line 26 times. *No EDGE. 43 games went under first half total, while 29 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#137 TULANE @ #138 TULSA
TV: 8:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network
Line: Tulsa -6.5, Total: 47
Tulsa will host a familiar foe in a new conference when Tulane visits Thursday night in their American Athletic Conference debuts. The Green Wave beat the Golden Hurricane 14-7 last year in a Conference USA matchup, snapping an eight-game losing streak to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are looking for a clean slate in the AAC after following their 2012 Conference USA championship with a disappointing season.
"Looking back on it, I clearly see we were kind of living off (the success of 2012), assuming we would just pick up where we left off," fourth-year coach Bill Blankenship told the Tulsa World. "This season feels way different. Partly because I think we're a lot more on edge. We're not assuming anything." Tulsa has lots of key players returning, including sophomore quarterback Dane Evans, while Tulane redshirt freshman quarterback Tanner Lee starts his first collegiate game. The young quarterbacks will face experienced secondary’s, led by Tulane's Lorenzo Doss and Tulsa's Michael Mudoh.
•ABOUT TULANE (2013: 7-6): "(Lee has) got a strong arm, command of our offense, great leadership skills and doesn't make many mistakes," third-year coach Curtis Johnson said of Lee, who beat out senior Nick Montana (53.4 completion percentage, 1,717 yards and 14 touchdowns in 11 starts last year) for the starting job. Redshirt freshman Sherman Badie and sophomore Lazedrick Thompson will try to replace the production of workhorse Orleans Darkwa (863 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns) while senior Justyn Shackleford (36 catches, 419 yards, five TDs) is the leading returning receiver after the departure of fifth-round draft pick Ryan Grant (1,039 yards, nine TDs). Doss, who returned two of his seven interceptions for touchdowns last year, and safety Sam Scofield (team-high 104 tackles) return to a defense that was tied for second in the country with 35 takeaways.
•ABOUT TULSA (2013: 3-9): Evans played in eight games and started five, completing 84-of-195 passes for 898 yards and four touchdowns for the Golden Hurricane, who open at home for the first time since 2006. The return of junior receiver Keyarris Garrett, who led Tulsa with 67 catches, 845 yards and nine touchdowns in 2012 before a season-ending leg injury in the second game of 2013, will bolster an offense that has to replace two 2,000-yard rushers. The Tulsa defense lost Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year Shawn Jackson but has nine starters back plus the return of senior safety Demarco Nelson (who sat out 2013 for academic reasons) and sophomore linebacker Trent Martin (who missed seven games with a knee injury).
•PREGAME NOTES: Mudoh, a junior safety, was tied for fourth nationally with 11.1 tackles per game last year.... Tulane sophomore LB Nico Marley, who earned Conference USA co-freshman of the year honors after recording 67 tackles during the 2013 season, is the grandson of music legend Bob Marley.... Tulsa allowed 198.9 rushing yards last year while Tulane ran for just 126.8 yards (ranked 101st out of 123 teams).
•KEY STATS
--TULSA is 2-10 against the 1rst half line (-9.0 Units) versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TULSA 9.8, OPPONENT 17.3.
--TULSA is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TULSA 10.3, OPPONENT 22.3.
•COACHING TRENDS
--CURTIS JOHNSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of TULANE.
The average score was TULANE 28.2, OPPONENT 27.3.
--CURTIS JOHNSON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of TULANE.
The average score was TULANE 25.1, OPPONENT 27.1.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TULSA is 8-1 against the spread versus TULANE since 1992.
--TULSA is 8-1 straight up against TULANE since 1992.
--7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--TULSA is 7-2 versus the first half line when playing against TULANE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TULN is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in TULN last 5 road games.
--Under is 3-0-1 in TULN last 4 games overall.
--TLSA 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--Over is 5-1 in TLSA last 6 home games.
--Under is 2-0-2 in TLSA last 4 games in August.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 44 times, while the underdog covered the spread 44 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 69 times, while the underdog won straight up 23 times. 63 games went under the total, while 20 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 46 times, while the underdog covered first half line 40 times. *No EDGE. 58 games went under first half total, while 24 games went over first half total. *Edge against first half total =UNDER.
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#139 OLE MISS vs. #140 BOISE ST
TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Ole Miss -10.5, Total: 54
Mississippi looks to build on an eight-win campaign when it opens the season Thursday night against Boise State in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game at Atlanta. The No. 19 Rebels have hopes of being a surprise contender in the South Eastern Conference West, the loaded division that includes Alabama, Auburn and LSU. The Broncos are playing their first game under new head coach Bryan Harsin, who took over after highly successful Chris Peterson left to become Washington’s coach.
Harsin was Boise State’s offensive coordinator from 2006-10 and returned to his hometown of Boise after one season as Arkansas State’s coach. Coincidentally, third-year Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze also served a one-season stint (2011) at Arkansas State before landing the Rebels’ gig. The Broncos have won more games (155) than any other school since the beginning of the 2000 season, but last season’s win total of eight was their lowest since 2001.
•ABOUT BOISE STATE (2013: 8-5): Senior quarterback Grant Hedrick isn’t a polished thrower but did have 16 touchdowns passes last season against only five interceptions while also being productive on the ground (277 yards, six TDs). Junior running back Jay Ajayi, who rushed for 1,425 yards and 18 touchdowns, is a powerful physical specimen with an NFL future while senior wideout Matt Miller (88 receptions for 1,140 yards, 12 TDs) is the top target. Defensively, the Broncos are led by junior cornerback Donte Deayon (six interceptions) and sophomore linebacker Ben Weaver (89 tackles).
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (2013: 8-5): Senior quarterback Bo Wallace is coming off a season in which he passed for 3,346 yards and 18 touchdowns but has been prone to turnovers and questionable decision-making during his career. Sophomore receiver Laquon Treadwell caught 72 passes last season but averaged just 8.4 yards per catch while juniors I’Tavius Mathers (563 yards) and Jaylen Walton (523) will split the ball-carrying duties. Defensively, the Rebels are led by sophomore defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (eight tackles for loss), senior free safety Cody Prewitt (six interceptions) and sophomore safety Tony Conner (66 tackles).
•PREGAME NOTES: Boise State isn’t ranked to start a season for the first time since 2008.... Ole Miss, which has won five consecutive non-conference games, has never previously faced the Broncos.... Rebels WR Sammie Epps was suspended after getting arrested for possession of marijuana earlier this month.
•KEY STATS
--OLE MISS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OLE MISS 35.9, OPPONENT 24.6.
--BOISE ST is 119-68 against the 1rst half line (+44.2 Units) versus the first half line in all games since 1992.
The average score was BOISE ST 21.7, OPPONENT 9.8.
•COACHING TRENDS
--HUGH FREEZE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Freeze 36.9, OPPONENT 21.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1992: Note: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MISS is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
--Under is 4-1 in MISS last 5 Thursday games.
--Over is 9-3 in MISS last 12 games on fieldturf.
--BSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--BSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
--Under is 4-1 in BSU last 5 games on fieldturf.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 63 times, while the favorite covered the spread 28 times. *EDGE against the spread =BOISE ST. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 60 times, while the underdog won straight up 32 times. 50 games went under the total, while 39 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 57 times, while the favorite covered first half line 33 times. *No EDGE. 44 games went over first half total, while 42 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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#139 OLE MISS vs. #140 BOISE ST
TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Ole Miss -10.5, Total: 54
Mississippi looks to build on an eight-win campaign when it opens the season Thursday against Boise State in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game at Atlanta. The No. 19 Rebels have hopes of being a surprise contender in the SEC West, the loaded division that includes Alabama, Auburn and LSU. The Broncos are playing their first game under new coach Bryan Harsin, who took over after highly successful Chris Peterson left to become Washington’s coach.
Harsin was Boise State’s offensive coordinator from 2006-10 and returned to his hometown of Boise after one season as Arkansas State’s coach. Coincidentally, third-year Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze also served a one-season stint (2011) at Arkansas State before landing the Rebels’ gig. The Broncos have won more games (155) than any other school since the beginning of the 2000 season, but last season’s win total of eight was their lowest since 2001.
•ABOUT BOISE STATE (2013: 8-5): Senior quarterback Grant Hedrick isn’t a polished thrower but did have 16 touchdowns passes last season against only five interceptions while also being productive on the ground (277 yards, six TDs). Junior running back Jay Ajayi, who rushed for 1,425 yards and 18 touchdowns, is a powerful physical specimen with an NFL future while senior wideout Matt Miller (88 receptions for 1,140 yards, 12 TDs) is the top target. Defensively, the Broncos are led by junior cornerback Donte Deayon (six interceptions) and sophomore linebacker Ben Weaver (89 tackles).
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (2013: 8-5): Senior quarterback Bo Wallace is coming off a season in which he passed for 3,346 yards and 18 touchdowns but has been prone to turnovers and questionable decision-making during his career. Sophomore receiver Laquon Treadwell caught 72 passes last season but averaged just 8.4 yards per catch while juniors I’Tavius Mathers (563 yards) and Jaylen Walton (523) will split the ball-carrying duties. Defensively, the Rebels are led by sophomore defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (eight tackles for loss), senior free safety Cody Prewitt (six interceptions) and sophomore safety Tony Conner (66 tackles).
•PREGAME NOTES: Boise State isn’t ranked to start a season for the first time since 2008.... Ole Miss, which has won five consecutive non-conference games, has never previously faced the Broncos.... Rebels WR Sammie Epps was suspended after getting arrested for possession of marijuana earlier this month.
•KEY STATS
--OLE MISS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OLE MISS 35.9, OPPONENT 24.6.
--BOISE ST is 119-68 against the 1rst half line (+44.2 Units) versus the first half line in all games since 1992.
The average score was BOISE ST 21.7, OPPONENT 9.8.
•COACHING TRENDS
--HUGH FREEZE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Freeze 36.9, OPPONENT 21.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1992: Note: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MISS is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
--Under is 4-1 in MISS last 5 Thursday games.
--Over is 9-3 in MISS last 12 games on fieldturf.
--BSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--BSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
--Under is 4-1 in BSU last 5 games on fieldturf.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 63 times, while the favorite covered the spread 28 times. *EDGE against the spread =BOISE ST. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 60 times, while the underdog won straight up 32 times. 50 games went under the total, while 39 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 57 times, while the favorite covered first half line 33 times. *No EDGE. 44 games went over first half total, while 42 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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