8-30-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | COLORADO at ARIZONA
Play Against – Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (COLORADO) where team’s hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after scoring 2 runs or less 4 straight games
56-18 since 1997. ( 75.7% | 31.0 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% | -2.8 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets

MLB | MINNESOTA at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 16-5 (+12.7 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (5.1) , OPPONENT (2.8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

191 Fresno State +21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI - Esparza Picks

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS

6 Unit Play. #177 Over 55 Alabama vs. West Virginia (3:30p.m., Saturday, Aug 30 ABC)
2 Unit Play. #191 Fresno St +22 over USC (7:30p.m., Saturday, Aug 30 ABC)


COLLEGE FOOTBALL FUTURES

3 Unit Play. Take Oregon +125 to Win the PAC-12 Champion (January 2014)
3 Unit Play. Take Florida Regular Season Wins Over 7 ½ -125 (January 2014)
5 Unit Play. Take UNLV Regular Season Wins Under 4½ -130 (January 2014)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE DAY

California at Northwestern (-11) 3:30 ET ABC

In last year’s 44-30 road win at Cal, Northwestern profited from a pair of pick 6s on deflected passes. That was one of just 5 victories for the Wildcats who logged a 3-8 ATS mark, including going 1-7 SU ATS in Big 10 play. Though 17 starters return for Northwestern, they will be missing QB Colter and RB Mark (transferred) as well as WR Jones (knee) who is already out for the season. Replacing that set of triplets will be no easy task against a greatly improved Cal Bear team. In the first season under HC Dykes, the Bruins went 1-11 SU, 2-9 ATS. Look no further than a 46/530 defense that was among the worst in the nation. Cal has now dropped 16 consecutive games vs. FBS foes, including 14 of them by 14 or more points. But in the second year of Dykes Air Raid offense, look for notable improvement over the 23 PPG of last season! Explosive QB Goff returns, along with a veteran OL. It’s tough to pull the trigger on a team with as much negative recent history as these Bears. But, I feel comfortable it is the right side knowing that in last year’s contest the Golden Bears actually won the yardage battle 548-508. Solid double digit dog take with one of the most improved teams in the country!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Swami Cappers

Killer move: Penn St Under

Gamblers alley: Auburn Over
USC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT

***** Saturday, 8/30/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #22
•Defense Propels Angels Past A's: Jered Weaver threw seven scoreless innings and Albert Pujols and Chris Iannetta hit home runs, but the Los Angeles Angels' 4-0 win over the Oakland A's Friday night at Angel Stadium was all about defense. The Angels made a number of outstanding plays, while the A's just missed making one of their own. Oakland also committed a couple of errors that resulted in an unearned run. Center fielder Mike Trout made a running catch at the wall in left center, left fielder Josh Hamilton made a diving catch in foul territory down the left-field line and third baseman Gordon Beckham made a leaping catch of a line drive.

Oakland center fielder Coco Crisp nearly made the play of the game, reaching above the wall and appearing to rob Iannetta of a two-run home run in the fifth inning. He initially had the ball in his glove but lost it when he slammed into the wall and landed hard on his back. He left the game under his own power and was initially diagnosed with a strained neck. Weaver, who gave up three hits and three walks, improved to 15-7, tying Detroit's Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer for the league-lead in wins.

•Texas Rangers Tie MLB Record: The old baseball adage is that you can't tell the players without a program. For the Texas Rangers, there may be a little truth to it, as Ryan Rua will become the team's 59th player this season, tying a major league record. Rua, a rookie first baseman/outfielder, was promoted when outfielder Jim Adduci was placed on the seven-day concussion disabled list. Rua is scheduled to play in Friday night's game against the Houston Astros. The San Diego Padres twice used 59 players in a season (2002 and 2008), while the Cleveland Indians did it in 2002.

The Rangers will likely break the record, as left-handed starter Derek Holland, who has been out the entire season while recovering from knee surgery, is close to coming off the disabled list. Major league teams also conduct their September call-ups next week. Adduci hit his head on the warning track and against the wall while making a sliding catch in the fourth inning of Thursday's 4-2 loss to the Astros. To make room for Rua, the Rangers released right-handed reliever Phil Irwin. Rua went 4-for-5 with four RBIs for Triple-A Round Rock on Thursday. He was hitting .405 with eight RBIs over the last nine games.

•Yankees Activate LHP Outman: The New Yankees placed left-handed pitcher Josh Outman on the 25-man roster, one day after acquiring him from the Cleveland Indians. The Indians traded Outman to the Yankees for a player to be named later or cash considerations. Outman, 29, was 3-1 with a 4.43 ERA in 23 appearances (one start) at Triple-A Columbus this season. He will be available out of the bullpen beginning Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees also designated pitcher Rich Hill for assignment to clear a spot on the active roster for Outman. Hill appeared in six games for the Yankees as a lefty specialist, allowing just two hits in 2 1/3 scoreless innings.

•Petit's Strong Start For Giants Leaves Lincecum In Limbo: Fans above the right field strike out board cheer after San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Yusmeiro Petit struck out the Colorado Rockies' Charlie Blackmon in the third inning of their baseball game to set the Major League Baseball record for consecutive batters retired Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014, in San Francisco. The new record is 46. He didn't play in the game. And he didn't speak to reporters before or after the game, begging off beforehand and slipping out with earbuds securely in place shortly after the Giants secured their third straight win. But Tim Lincecum was still a dominant presence Thursday afternoon. That's because Thursday was supposed to be Lincecum's turn in the starting rotation. But Bruce Bochy decided to skip Lincecum in light of his brutal struggles the past six outings, to give him time to work on his mechanics and take a mental break. Slipping into Lincecum's place came bullpen swingman Yusmeiro Petit.

Friday's MLB Roundup
--Buster Posey became the first catcher in San Francisco history to record two five-hit games, contributing a triple and four singles to a 19-hit attack that overpowered Milwaukee in the opener of a three-game series. Second baseman Joe Panik had a double among four hits, center fielder Angel Pagan and right fielder Hunter Pence added three hits apiece, and left fielder Gregor Blanco belted a two-run homer for the Giants, who recorded season-highs in runs, hits and margin of victory. The win was San Francisco's fourth in a row.

--Washington tagged Seattle's Felix Hernandez for four home runs, then added two more against Mariners relievers, on the way to snapping their three-game losing streak. Catcher Wilson Ramos had two of the Nationals' six home runs, five of which were solo shots. Washington had 14 hits, 10 of them coming against Hernandez, on the way to earning the franchise's 10th consecutive head-to-head win against Seattle. Anthony Rendon, Ian Desmond and Ramos all had solo homers off Hernandez, while Jayson Werth added a two-run shot. Bryce Harper and Ramos hit back-to-back solo homers off reliever Joe Beimel in the eighth inning.

--Jacoby Ellsbury capped a five-run seventh inning with a two-run homer and he also tripled as New York defeated Toronto. Left-hander Chris Capuano picked up his first win in seven starts since joining the Yankees from the Colorado Rockies on July 24. He allowed eight hits and three runs in 6 1/3 innings. Third baseman Chase Headley also homered for the Yankees. Right fielder Jose Bautista homered for the third consecutive game for the Blue Jays.

--Jake Lamb hit a grand slam home run with two outs in the eighth inning to lift the Diamondbacks over Colorado at Chase Field. Lamb hit a 2-1 pitch into the overhang above the fence in center field for his second homer of the year. Brad Ziegler gave up a run on three singles when Colorado took a 2-1 lead in the eighth inning. Addison Reed pitched a 1-2-3 ninth inning for his 31st save for Arizona, which broke a three-game losing streak.

--Danny Salazar pitched five superb innings and Carlos Santana homered and drove in three runs as Cleveland topped Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium. Salazar was not allowed to come back out after a 44-minute rain delay in the bottom of the sixth. He stymied the Royals on four hits and two walks, while striking out three in five scoreless innings. Santana hit a two-run shot in the ninth for his sixth home run this season at Kauffman. He also contributed a RBI-single in a three-run third.

--Michael Choice recorded his first career three-hit game while four teammates posted multihit efforts as Texas pounded Houston at Minute Maid Park. Choice went 3-for-4 with three RBIs and his ninth home run, a three-run shot in the fourth inning. Second baseman Rougned Odor added a three-run blast, his seventh, off Astros right-hander Jake Buchanan in the seventh. Odor finished 2-for-5, three RBIs, Daniel Robertson went 2-for-4 and Adam Rosales finished 3-for-5 with two RBIs and two runs to support Scott Baker. Baker limited the Astros to two runs on six hits and one walk with three strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings.

--Right-hander Justin Verlander shrugged off a shaky start as he helped lead Detroit to a victory over Chicago at U.S. Cellular Field. Verlander allowed a first-inning run and loaded the bases then shut out the White Sox through the rest of his successful seven-inning outing. The victory lifted the Tigers into a temporary one-half game lead over the Seattle Mariners for the second American League wild card spot with 29 games to play. Detroit left fielder J.D. Martinez went 3-for-5 with a run scored, designated hitter Victor Martinez was 2-for-5 while center fielder Ezequiel Carrera and right fielder Torri Hunter also had two hits apiece. Second baseman Ian Kinsler and Hunter each batted in two runs.

--The Cardinals welcomed back perennial All-Star catcher Yadier Molina to the lineup after 40 games, but the night belonged to Chicago rookie Jorge Soler. Soler homered to tie the game in the seventh and then capped a four-run eighth inning with a tape-measure two-run blast as Chicago rallied at Busch Stadium. Another Cubs rookie, second baseman Javier Baez, snapped a 2-2 tie earlier in the eighth with a two-run double off reliever Pat Neshek to score Logan Watkins and Chris Coghlan. Neshek entered the night having allowed only five runs in 55 1/3 innings, but gave up four before being pulled following Soler's second homer.

--Justin Upton hit his 26th homer and drove in three runs as Atlanta defeated Miami at Turner Field. Upton has seven homers and 28 of his 91 RBIs in August while raising his batting average for the season to .288. Upton hit a two-run blast in the sixth inning and had then delivered RBI single in the seventh as the Braves broke a tie with three runs against the Marlins bullpen. David Carpenter got credit for the victory although he allowed a tying homer to pinch-hitter Jordanny Valdespin in the top of the seventh. Craig Kimbrel pitched the ninth for his 40th save in 44 chances, allowing one hit but getting a double play.

--Rookie right-hander Anthony Ranaudo remained perfect as a big-leaguer and fellow newcomer Mookie Betts hit a grand slam as Boston trounced Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field. Ranaudo, who has won all three of his big league starts, allowed three earned runs on five hits and three walks with four strikeouts in six innings. He was hardly threatened by the punchless Rays. Brandon Guyer knocked in three of Tampa Bay's runs with a two-run homer and ninth-inning single.

--Josh Harrison tripled in the tying run and scored the winning run on Jose Tabata's single in the eighth inning as Pittsburgh rallied for the victory at PNC Park. Harrison had three hits and finished a home run shy of the cycle in helping the Pirates to their sixth win in their last eight games. Tony Watson earned the victory despite giving up a go-ahead single to the only batter he faced, Devin Mesoraco in the top of the eighth inning. Mesaroco's single snapped a scoreless tie, but the inning ended when second baseman Brandon Phillips was thrown out at home plate. Pirates starter Edinson Volquez took a no-hitter into the seventh inning before Mesoraco broke it up with a leadoff single.

--Right-hander Jacob DeGrom tossed seven strong innings to earn the win after New York scored three unearned runs in bizarre fashion in the bottom of the seventh inning at Citi Field. The Mets broke a 1-1 tie without a hit in the seventh. Left fielder Matt den Dekker drew a one-out walk off left-hander Jake Diekman and stole second. With two outs, shortstop Wilmer Flores was hit by a pitch. Eric Campbell, pinch-hitting for DeGrom, drew a full count walk to load the bases. Center fielder Juan Lagares followed with a seemingly routine fly to left, but Grady Sizemore dropped the ball as he pulled the glove down and den Dekker and Flores raced home. Three pitches later, Lagares took off for second and Campbell bolted for home when catcher Carlos Ruiz threw to second. Campbell beat the throw home for his second career stolen base and the Mets' first steal of home since Jason Pridie did it on May 15, 2011.

--Chris Davis hit his second grand slam of the season and Delmon Young added a two-run homer as Baltimore routed Minnesota at Camden Yards. Davis has been struggling at the plate all season. He's now batting just .189 but still hits home runs. This one, a grand slam to right, proved to be the big hit in a five-run fourth inning which put the Orioles up 5-0 over the Twins and broke the game open. The Orioles now have won four of their last five games while the Twins have dropped five of six.

--Yasmani Grandal singled home Yangervis Solarte with two out in the 12th inning to give San Diego a win over Los Angeles at Petco Park. The win was the Padres' second straight, extra-inning walk-off win. The Dodgers had tied the game at 2 on Hanley Ramirez's one-out homer in the top of the ninth.
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Betting Notes - Saturday

National League
•Cubs-Cardinals - 2:15 PM
--Doubront was 1-2, 6.51 in his last six starts for Boston- this is his first start for the Cubs. Wada is 4-0, 1.96 in his last six starts.
--Masterson is 2-2, 7.50 in four starts for St Louis. Gonzales is 0-2, 7.07 in three MLB starts this year.

--Cubs won eight of their last twelve games.
--St Louis lost four of its last five games.

--Four of last five St Louis games stayed under the total.

•Reds-Pirates - 4:05 PM
--Leake is 1-0, 2.92 in his last two starts.
--Worley is 0-3, 7.64 in his last three starts.

--Cincinnati won four of its last six games, but lost six in row on road.
--Pirates won six of their last eight games.

--Over is 5-1 in last six Cincinnati road games.

•Marlins-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Cosart is 2-0, 0.87 in his last three starts.
--Harang is 1-2, 6.00 in his last three starts.

--Marlins lost five of their last six games.
--Atlanta won five of its last six home games.

--Over is 4-1-1 in last six Harang starts.

•Phillies-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Williams is 2-0, 1.54 in three starts for Philly.
--Colon is 2-1, 2.31 in his last three starts.

--Phillies won six of their last eight games.
--Mets lost seven of their last eleven games.

--Over is 4-1 in last five Colon starts.

•Rockies-Diamondbacks - 8:10 PM
--Matzek is 1-4, 6.59 in his last five starts.
--Nuno is 0-0, 2.70 in his last three starts.

--Rockies lost last four games, scoring five runs.
--Arizona lost nine of its last twelve games.

--Six of last seven Colorado games stayed under total.

•Dodgers-Padres - 8:40 PM
--Greinke is 1-2, 4.68 in his last four starts.
--Kennedy is 2-2, 5.17 in his last four starts.

--Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
--San Diego won four of its last five games.

--Five of last seven Kennedy starts went over total.

•Brewers-Giants - 9:05 PM
--Fiers is 4-0, 1.29 in four starts this season.
--Peavy is 2-1, 2.57 in his last three starts.

--Milwaukee lost six of its last eight games.
--Giants won their last four games, allowing eight runs.

--Four of last five San Francisco games stayed under total.
______________________________________________

American League
•Yankees-Blue Jays - 1:05 PM
--Pineda is 1-0, 2.08 in his last three starts.
--Hutchison is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.

--New York won seven of its last nine games.
--Blue Jays lost four of their last five games.

--Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Yankees games.

•Tigers-White Sox - 1:10 PM
--Scherzer is 2-0, 2.57 in his last four starts. Ryan is making MLB debut; he was 3-0, 1.64 in five AAA starts.
--Sale is 0-2, 3.94 in his last five starts. Bassitt was 3-1, 1.56 in six starts at AA Birmingham this season.

--Detroit won five of its last six games.
--White Sox lost nine of their last ten games.

--Seven of last nine Chicago games stayed under total.

•Twins-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Gibson is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
--Tillman is 4-0, 1.51 in his last five starts.

--Minnesota lost nine of its last thirteen games.
--Orioles won six of their last seven home games.

--Four of last five Gibson starts went over total.

•Red Sox-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Webster is 1-1, 7,16 in his last three starts.
--Odorizzi is 2-3, 6.07 in his last five starts.

--Red Sox lost nine of their last twelve games.
--Tampa Bay lost nine of its last thirteen games.

--Five of last seven Tampa Bay home games stayed under total.

•Indians-Royals - 7:10 PM
--Cleveland won last three Bauer starts (1-0, 3.20).
--Shields is 4-1, 3.29 in his last five starts.

--Cleveland won 12 of its last 17 games.
--Royals lost four of their last six games.

--13 of last 16 Cleveland games stayed under total.

•Rangers-Astros - 7:10 PM
--Mikolas is 1-0, 2.07 in his last couple starts.
--Feldman is 1-2, 5.68 in his last three starts.

--Texas is 7-5 in its last twelve road games.
--Astros lost six of their last nine games.

--Six of last eight Mikolas starts stayed under total.

•Athletics-Angels - 9:05 PM
--Samardzija is 1-2, 4.03 in four road starts for Oakland.
--Rasmus is making first MLB start; he is 3-1, 2.68 in 37 IP in relief this season, covering 24 games. His last start was in 2011 in Class A ball.

--Oakland lost ten of their last thirteen road games.
--Angels won 13 of their last 17 games.

--Under is 12-4 in last sixteen Angel games.

Interleague
•Nationals-Mariners - 9:10 PM
--Zimmerman is 3-0, 2.38 in his last six starts.
--Hernandez is 2-1, 2.45 in his last four starts.

--Nationals lost three of their last four games.
--Seattle lost three of its last four home games.

--Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Washington games.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer is 31-7 in his team starts against the money line (81.5%) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last two seasons. The right-hander has also been outstanding on the year compiling a 16-4 record versus teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game.

Scherzer has posted a 0.96 ERA in winning his first four 2014 starts against Chicago. He struck out eight in a three-hitter in a 4-0 road victory June 12th in which Chris Sale struck out 10 and gave up one run in seven innings. Scherzer can become the first pitcher to improve to 5-0 against the White Sox in a single season since Cleveland's Jim Kern in 1976. Kansas City's Paul Splittorff was the last to win his first five assignments over Chicago in a season in 1973.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

England Premier League

EVERTON +162 over Chelsea

(Asian Handicap)

(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.62)

Saturday, August 30, 10:00 AM EST. One of the more profound characteristics circulating this contest at Goodison Park is the notion that Everton is 4-1-0 at home when facing Chelsea. The most recent result between these two sides was a 1-0 Toffee victory against the Blues back in May. Additionally, Everton has won the last four meetings between the two squads when playing at Merseyside. Entering this contest, Chelsea has already racked up an astounding 6 points with consecutive victories against newly promoted Burnley and Leiceister City. In these two games, Chelsea has managed to strike five times to one goal conceded, the solitary goal given during the visit to Burnley in the opening fixture.

Everton shares a different tale, the Roberto Martinez managed club which has posted two draws, comprised of 2-2 ties against both Leicester City and Arsenal. Most notably, these two stalemates came when Everton visited the newly promoted Foxes and in a home stand against the defending FA Cup Champions from Highbury. History says Everton has a decent shot here based on the fact they have an .800 win percentage and four game home-winning streak against Chelsea at Goodison Park. In addition to this, the North London squad fears that they may be without the services of their striker Diego Costa, who suffered a minor muscular injury. On the Everton side, the Toffees have acquired a former Chelsea striker in Cameroon's Samuel E'To. E'To can be an excellent supplement to Romelu Lukaku, who may also have suffered an injury against Arsenal that can subsequently ail his overall performance. Everton will test Chelsea frequently with Steven Naismith threatening from a forward position. Given the uncertainty surrounding Costa and previous encounters, Everton’s value is too good to ignore.


Crystal Palace +½ +121 over NEWCASTLE U

(Asian Handicap)

(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.21)

Saturday, August 30, 12:30 PM EST. This is a rather ergonomic selection considering historical results between the two sides. With four contests at home at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace is winless against the Magpies. However at St. James Park, the Eagles have enjoyed success. Records show that both sides are 1-1-2 in fixtures at Newcastle. Notably, the most recent collision between the two squads was a Newcastle victory that came in stoppage time of the second half, when Papiss Demba Cissé found the back of the net in the final stages. Despite Newcastle being a significant favorite entering this fixture, the two teams are separated in the table by 1 point.

Palace is still searching for their first points of the season, and they were not far from doing so against heavyweight Arsenal in the opening fixture. In front of a hostile crowd at the Emirates, the Eagles struck first with a goal from their veteran center back Brede Hangeland. Unfortunately for the South London club, they let the game get away from them and Arsenal escaped with a 2-1 victory. Conversely, the Eagles would continue their struggles at home with a loss to fellow London club, West Ham United. The Magpies opened with a scoreless draw against Aston Villa and then followed that up by suffering a thrashing at the hands of defending champion Manchester City in their own backyard. Despite the optimism from odds makers, Villa has yet to mark in either contest. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace has done so twice already and has done so when the score was level and when they also trailed. This may serve as the guiding force for what may be an astounding effort by Crystal Palace.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

NCAAF

California @ NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERN -10 -106 over Cal

(Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

3:30 PM EST. We’re not usually in favor of spotting this type of lumber in the first game of the year but the California Golden Bears are a bottom feeding PAC-12 team that seldom travels well and is coming off a season in which they lost 11 of 12 games. California Head Coach Sonny Dykes, now in his second year, cares not about defense. Dykes came over from Louisiana Tech where he instilled a high-powered offense that scored seemingly at will. He tried using that same philosophy with the Bears last season but it was clearly obvious that Dykes was in way over his head. The Golden Bears allowed 30 or more points in every game last season and 44 or more in 7 of them. The Golden Bears only victory a year ago was in Week 2, when they defeated Portland State, 37-30. There is nothing different about the Golden Bears this season. They will try to outscore every opponent because they can’t stop the marching band and we don’t see any improvements.

The Wildcats may just be one of the most undervalued teams in the nation. Last year, the Wildcats were much better than their 5-7 record indicated, as they lost five games in the final minutes of regulation or overtime. While they have recently suffered two key losses in running back Venric Mark and wide receiver Christian Jones, keep in mind that Mark missed most of last season due to injury, and their wide receiver unit is one of the deepest in the conference. Northwestern’s offensive line is both huge and talented. Wildcats QB Trevor Siemian figures to have all the time in the world to hit his talented receivers and frankly speaking, we have no idea how the Golden Bears are even going to come up with one stop in this one. Cal may keep it close early because they do have the ability to score points but when you are constantly needing to score to keep pace, it eventually catches up and often leads to a second half blowout. Northwestern went into California in the first game of the season last year as a 5½-point favorite and defeated the Bears 44-30. Now we only have to spot 4½ more points in Northwestern’s home. This year the venue changes but the result most likely will not.


North Texas @ TEXAS

North Texas +26½ -106 over TEXAS

(Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

8:00 PM EST. Former Louisville Head Coach Charlie Strong takes over the Longhorns and immediately made his mark by applying his no-nonsense approach. The Longhorns roster has been depleted by transfers, suspensions and dismissals. Among the dismissals were receivers Kendall Sanders and Montrel Meander, running backs Joe Bergeron, Jalen Overstreet and Chet Moss, as well as defensive backs Chevoski Collins and Leroy Scott. Strong also suspended running back/receiver Daje Johnson, offensive tackle Desmond Harrison and safety Josh Turner for at least the first game of the season. How that plays out on the field remains to be seen but we’ve already seen weak performances from big favorites with new head coaches in the first two days of action and another one here would not surprise. As a 26½-point favorite, Strong had the luxury of being able to suspend and or/punish several key players and not really have to worry about a loss. Had this opening game been against Baylor or Oklahoma for instance, we doubt very much that any suspensions would be in play. Charlie Strong needed to send a message to his players that this program will not tolerate any funny business and that nobody is immune. His goal is to get his players thinking about nothing but football and to get them ready for Big-12 play. We’re suggesting that Strong is not interested in running up the score, instead he’s more likely to employ a defensive oriented, clock-grinding style, which bodes well for the dog.

Head Coach Dan McCarney is in his fourth year for the Mean Green. It should be noted that McCarney and Strong won a national title together under Urban Meyer at Florida. Friendly familiarity usually benefits big underdogs, as knowledge of the opposing coach’s philosophy helps narrow the gap created by the talent disparity. McCarney’s Mean Green is a defensive oriented team. He preaches ball control and he preaches no turnovers. North Texas is in good shape in the backfield with two solid options and we can expect to see a heavy dose once again of that running game, especially when you consider its strong offensive line. When laying this type of lumber you want to be backing a team with a quick strike, high-powered offense or a great defense but none of that applies to the Longhorns. We’re not asking the Mean Green to do anything remarkable here. We’re asking them to show up and play the methodical style that they always play. Charlie Strong inherited a Texas team with a lot of bad habits so it’s likely going to take more than one off-season and several punishments to trust this team as a heavy favorite this early. We wouldn’t even be surprised if the Longhorns didn’t score 27 points, let alone cover 26½.


LSU vs Wisconsin

LSU -4½ -106 over Wisconsin

(Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

9:00 PM EST. NRG Stadium in Houston. LSU comes in ranked #13 in the country while the Badgers come in ranked #14. In a neutral site game with two evenly matched teams, according to the rankings, the points may look appealing but we don’t see it that way at all. Is it even possible that a team like LSU, with the pedigree they have possessed over the years can be considered under the radar? In previous seasons we would say no but this year, with Georgia, Auburn and Alabama garnering all the SEC attention, the Tigers are indeed being overlooked. Why? Well for starters, LSU has had a mad evacuation of top talent over the past two years. In fact, LSU has lost 17 underclassmen to the NFL draft the past two cycles but all that does is show us how strong they are at recognizing talent and recruiting it. These Tigers players and youngsters were recruited to step in and play immediately. Furthermore, the Tigers possess the best OL in the SEC with a strong stable of running backs and they are in good shape behind center with Brandon Harris and Anthony Jennings. Incidentally, ESPN analyst and national recruiting director Tom Luginbill, who covered Harris in the Under Armour game, said his arm is in the top three for the past decade. “He’s a great kid with a high ceiling,” he said. “He’s a superior talent to Jennings, but he hasn’t played yet.

Back to RB’s for a second. LSU's Leonard Fournette has not played a down of college football but he’s been compared to Michael Jordan for his determination and to Adrian Peterson’s physique as a teenager. Said one scout, “I’ve never seen a freshman like him”. Never.” In addition to Fournette, Malachi Dupre and Trey Quinn are expected to be in the receiver’s rotation. Jamal Adams is a defensive back who isn’t getting enough buzz because of the offensive guys. The Tigers have loaded up again so don’t make the mistake of undervaluing them.

It is of our humble opinion that Wisconsin is going to suffer the loss of several key players a lot more than LSU will. Wisconsin is even younger than LSU in many spots, with 25 seniors lost from last season's squad. Most importantly, the Badgers are replacing the entire starting front seven on defense. That’s a huge mismatch in LSU’s favor. Wisconsin’s rebuilt unit could be in for a long day against LSU's downhill rushing attack that will feature four outstanding tailbacks. That depth at RB also ensures that fresh legs are always on the field. The Badgers top 4 WR's from last year are gone, and two that were considered to get significant playing time, Robert Wheelwright and Jazz Peavy are injured. James White is also gone, so Wisky could be one dimensional to a degree. Most see this one as a nail-biter that will come down to the wire but from our vantage point we see the far superior recruiting class of LSU taking it to the Badgers right from the start. The window to buy-low on LSU isn’t going to last long.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Winning Crew

MLB 50 Dime Play : Detroit -112

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Sleepyj ( Pregame )

CFB Triple-dime bet: Washington -16.5

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Cappers Finest

CoversNuggz

New York Yankees ML 2 units

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VEGAS RUNNER

CFB True Steam = OHIO ST -14 thru -15.5

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL

3* ALABAMA
3* GEORGIA
2* Wisconsin

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BIG AL's 5* BASEBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (76% on 5* Plays Last 8 Years)

DET/CWS Game #2 under 9.5
listed pitchers
Ryan/Bassit

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Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee lost on Friday in College Football with Connecticut +17/BYU.

Ben lee lost on Friday in MLB in the American League with the Rays -$150/Red Sox.

For Saturday in College Football E&B like three.

(1) Alabama -26/West Virginia

(2)Texas -25/North Texas

(3) Wisconsin -+5.5/LSU

For Saturday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Orioles -$175/Twins.

Ben lee is 3-2 +$20 for week forty four 198-226-5 -$2877

"Mr Chalk" is 69-51 -$405 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted