9-4-14

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Today's NFL Picks

Green Bay at Seattle

The Packers open the season against the defending champion Seahawks on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Green Bay is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/1)

Game 461-462: Green Bay at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.926; Seattle 137.164 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 41 Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 45 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6); Under

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

GREEN BAY (8 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (16 - 3) - 9/4/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 1

Trend Report

Thursday, September 4

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Seattle is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

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NFL

Week 1

Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Pack is 2-3 in last five games here, losing last visit in ’12 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy until LY, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub QB’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 vs. non-division foes.

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EZWINNERS

4* Packers +5.5

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Behind The Bets

CFB
UTSA +7

NFL Thursday:
Seattle/Green Bay O46 (1U)

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Maddux Sports

NCAAF

10* Texas San Antonio +7

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StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle – Thursday

#461 GREEN BAY @ #462 SEATTLE
TV: 8:30 PM EST, NBC
Line: Seahawks -6, Total: 46

The reigning Super Bowl champions certainly don't need a built-in edge, but the league's best home-field advantage is just one obstacle the Green Bay Packers have to conquer when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night to kick off the NFL season. Seattle rode a suffocating defense to its first Super Bowl title in February, culminating its run by manhandling Peyton Manning and Denver's record-setting offense. The Seahawks are 15-1 over the past two seasons at CenturyLink Field.

Green Bay is touted as one of the top contenders to dethrone Seattle and the reason is a healthy Aaron Rodgers, who missed seven games last season due to a fractured collarbone. Rodgers returned for the regular-season finale and authored a last-minute comeback that clinched the third straight NFC North title for the Packers. The last meeting between the teams in 2012 featured one of the more memorable endings - infamously dubbed the "Fail Mary" - in league history, when Seattle's Russell Wilson threw a touchdown pass on the final play of the game that appeared to be an interception.

•ABOUT THE PACKERS (2013: 8-7-1, 1st NFC North): Rodgers is not the sole reason for the optimism in Green Bay - dangerous wideout Randall Cobb is back after missing 10 weeks due to injury last season while running back Eddie Lacy looks to build upon a season in which he rumbled for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs and was named the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. On the other side of the ball, the Packers expect a major upgrade in the pass rush after the offseason signing of veteran defensive end Julius Peppers (118.5 career sacks) along with a return to health by linebacker Clay Matthews, who has 50 career sacks in five seasons but was hindered by a broken thumb for much of 2013. Plugging the void left by a season-ending injury to behemoth nose tackle B.J. Raji will be an issue against the Seahawks' smash-mouth ground game.

•ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2013: 13-3, 1ST NFC West): Seattle led the NFL in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) permitted while also ranking No. 1 with 28 interceptions - eight by bombastic cornerback Richard Sherman, the leader of a secondary known as the Legion of Boom. Aside from a post-Super Bowl hangover, the Seahawks must cope with the loss of defensive linemen Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Clinton McDonald while playing in the fiercest division in football. Dual-threat Wilson has posted a passer rating of at least 100.0 in each of his first two seasons and gets back a big weapon in multi-talented wideout Percy Harvin - who missed nearly the entire 2013 campaign due to injury. That will augment a ground game powered by Marshawn Lynch, who has rushed for 4,051 yards and 35 TDs the past three seasons.

•PREGAME NOTES: Rodgers has five straight seasons with a passer rating over 100.0 and has thrown for 101 TDs versus 20 interceptions in the past three campaigns.... Wilson has 24 overall wins and 15 at home in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.... Green Bay is 6-2 against the Seahawks since 2003 - with five of the wins coming in Seattle.... The Seahawks are 6-0 against the spread as a home favorite of 7-points or less over the last three seasons.... The Packers are 58-37 Over in games played on turf since 1992.

•KEY STATS
--GREEN BAY is 37-19 OVER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 14.5, OPPONENT 10.4.

--SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 24.6, OPPONENT 14.2.

•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 13-5 OVER (+7.5 Units) against NFC West division opponents as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 30.0, OPPONENT 21.5.

--MIKE MCCARTHY is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC West division opponents as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 16.5, OPPONENT 10.8.

--PETE CARROLL is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 30.4, OPPONENT 11.6.

--PETE CARROLL is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games in the first month of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.8, OPPONENT 13.1.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GREEN BAY is 6-3 against the spread versus SEATTLE since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 7-3 straight up against SEATTLE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--GREEN BAY is 7-3 versus the first half line when playing against SEATTLE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Packers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--GB is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--GB is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--Over is 4-0 in GB last 4 games in September.

--SEA is 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 home games.
--SEA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Under is 7-0 in SEA last 7 vs. NFC.

StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 40 times, while the underdog covered the spread 16 times. *EDGE against the spread =SEATTLE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 48 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 38 games went over the total, while 29 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 74 times, while the underdog covered first half line 47 times. *No EDGE. 63 games went over first half total, while 55 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road teams versus the money line (GREEN BAY) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, in conference games.
(62-27 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.7%, +30.8 units. Rating = 2*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24.2, Opponent 18.8 (Average point differential = +5.4)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-10, +13.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (38-18, +18.5 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (112-65, +22.4 units).

How Was Your Football Season Last Year?
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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

Green Bay at Seattle, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 2-7 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

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NFL Opening Line Report: Books staying high on Seahawks

With Labor Day weekend drawing to a close, it’s a sure sign of two things: Summer is pretty much finished, and the NFL is just getting started.

While Week 1 odds have been on the board since the spring, action hasn't really heated up until recently. And we’ve got some sterling Week 1 matchups right out of the gate, most notably in the Thursday night opener, with the Green Bay Packers traveling to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in the primetime spotlight.

The opening number at most sportsbooks was Seahawks -5 to -6. Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag said his place stuck with the higher line.

“We opened with the Seahawks a solid 6-point home favorite, and we haven’t moved off that number,” Stewart tells Covers. “This game has seen great two-way action, and from all indications, we won’t have to move off this number, but maybe we’ll move the juice from time to time.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7)

The defending AFC champion Broncos hope to bounce back from an embarrassing Super Bowl performance and ride Peyton Manning’s arm to another big year.

The line opened at Denver -7 back in April and is still ranging from 7 to 7.5 at most books. CarbonSports opened at 7.5 and hasn’t been nudged in either direction for the Sunday night contest.

“While we saw decent Colts money come in early, all the late money has been on the Broncos,” Stewart says. “The reason for that late money: the Broncos and Peyton Manning have looked very sharp in the preseason and bettors believe they’ll carry that into Week 1 of the regular season. We tend to agree with those bettors and have been shading our line toward the Broncos.”

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Niners are having all sorts of off-the-field issues, with linebacker Aldon Smith getting smacked with a nine-game suspension last week for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, followed by defensive lineman Ray McDonald’s arrest early Sunday morning on domestic violence charges.

But San Francisco is holding steady as 5.5-point chalk for Sunday afternoon’s tilt at AT&T Stadium. The line for this game was among those taking the biggest jump since numbers went up in April.

“San Francisco opened a solid 3-point road favorite, and that number proved to be way too short as all the early action was on the 49ers,” Stewart says. “We didn’t stay on three very long - it was probably one of our very first moves when we hung Week 1 lines back in April.

“We went to 3.5 and eventually blew through four and got to 4.5. That’s an enormous move for an NFL game, but with news coming out about Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee going down for the year, we wanted to get aggressive with this game. As more and more money showed for the 49ers, we eventually got to 49ers -6, which is our current number.”

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Pats were a banged-up team with not much of a defense last season, yet came up just a game short of the Super Bowl.

With stud tight end Rob Gronkowski back, along with a better defense that includes a much improved secondary, Stewart said the money is piling in on New England. That’s taken a line that started at Pats -3 and pushed it to -4.5 in most spots, and even -5 at CarbonSports, for Sunday’s game.

“We got to -3.5 in early June, by late July we got to -4.5 and eventually to Patriots -5,” Stewart says. “So far, 80 percent of the action is on the Pats. Since we got to -5, we did book some sharp action on the Dolphins. But it wasn’t enough to move off (-5). Our exposure on the Patriots is significant enough to where we definitely want to write more action on the Dolphins, regardless of if it’s sharp.”

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Quick-Hits - Week #1
Systems Analyst James Vogel

Thursday, 9/4/2014

•Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers (91.6%). Home side won seven of last eight series matchups; Packers are 2-3 in last five games at CenturyLink Field, losing last visit in 2012 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy (70.8%) until last year, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub quarterback’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 versus non-division foes.

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Gold Medal Club- Saturday CFB Selections

5* 322- toledo +5
368 tulane +10.5
371-michigan +4.5

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #2 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NCAA College Football News and Notes - Week #1
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the matchups that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in opening college football weekend. Each week there are several squads that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

•UL-Monroe (-1½) 17, Wake Forest 10: Despite posting fewer than 100 yards in the game, Wake Forest led 10-0 at the half Thursday night in a game that featured a big line move with the Demon Deacons initially a four-point favorite. By the start of the fourth quarter, the Warhawks had the game tied, capitalizing on a turnover with a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. On its second drive of the fourth quarter, Louisiana-Monroe delivered a 12-play drive for the go-ahead score with just over three minutes left on the clock. UL-Monroe out-gained Wake Forest 352-94 in the game as the Warhawks were impressive on defense in the opening win but the game wound up being down to the wire.

•Tulsa (-5) 38, Tulane 31: This American Athletic Conference opener featured Tulane leading the entire way, but a wild finish flipped the result. Tulsa got within one with a short field goal about halfway through the fourth quarter, but Tulane shortly thereafter connected on a 60-yard pass play for a touchdown to put the Wave up 28-20 with under seven minutes left on the clock. Tulsa would march down the field to answer, connecting for the score on a fourth down play and the successful two-point conversion incredibly tied the game with less than three minutes on the clock. It looked all for naught as on first down deep in its own its territory, Tulane running back Sherman Badie broke loose with a 73 yard run to inside the Tulsa 10. Tulane would end up settling for a short field goal try, and Andrew DiRocco would miss left from just 21 yards, a kick that would have at the very least sealed an underdog cover. Both teams had the ball again in the final two minutes, but both drives stalled midfield and overtime was needed. In the first session, both teams hit short field goals but Tulsa found the end zone going first in the second session. Tulane quarterback Tanner Lee was then intercepted on 2nd down to end the game, giving Tulsa the win and a miraculous favorite cover on opening night.

•Mississippi (-10) 35, Boise State 13: The start of the season did not look pretty in this national TV game as both teams struggled with penalties and turnovers in the first half. By the start of the fourth quarter, Mississippi led just 7-6 as both teams squandered scoring chances with interceptions. While Boise State did a great job stopping the run, the Mississippi passing attack found some openings in the fourth quarter, scoring three touchdowns in less than five minutes of game clock, including a 76-yard play to put the Rebels comfortably ahead 28-6. Boise State would answer with a scoring drive to get back within 15, but after failing to recover the onside kick, Mississippi was able to punch in another touchdown to put the game away. The yardage was fairly close in this game with the underdog Broncos holding a big edge on the ground. The final score was certainly a bit misleading in what was a sloppy opening effort for both teams.

•Rutgers (+7½) 41, Washington State 38: Rutgers stormed out to an early lead in this game, but Washington State would rally to take the lead three different times in the second half, though the Cougars never actually got past the favorite spread at any point. Washington State led by seven entering the fourth quarter to put fear into those on the underdog that felt good about a win with the hot start from the Knights. Rutgers would answer with back-to-back scoring drives in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter to lead 34-31, but it took less than three minutes for Washington State to get the lead back, up 38-34 with just over eight minutes to go. On the next Rutgers possession, the Knights were stuffed deep in their own zone and forced to punt, seemingly giving the quick striking Washington State offense a chance to score and subsequently pull past the spread, but the punt returner muffed the catch and Rutgers recovered at midfield. Rutgers was able to move down the field for the go-ahead scored with just over three minutes to go in the game, all but locking up the underdog cover. Washington State ran seven plays on its final possession, but they could not convert and Rutgers scored a nice upset win in its debut representing the Big Ten.

•BYU (-14½) 35, Connecticut 10: BYU took control of this game early, but the favorite cover was in serious jeopardy late in the game. Down by 18, Connecticut went all the way down to the BYU 10-yard line but the Huskies came up short going for it on 4th down with just over six minutes to go. BYU would answer with a touchdown to put the game away as another Connecticut drive deep into BYU territory late in the game would also prove fruitless.

•Colorado State (+2½) 31, Colorado 17: The Buffaloes led 10-0 into the second quarter in this Rocky Mountain rivalry game and scoring first in the second half put the Buffaloes back up by 10 at 17-7. A strong kickoff return put the Rams in good position and they answered with a touchdown drive but Colorado still led by three, just covering the narrow favorite spread entering the fourth quarter. Shortly into the final frame, Colorado State took its first lead and then the Rams stepped up on defense, holding Colorado scoreless in the fourth quarter to pull away with a minor upset win.

•Ohio State (-13) 34, Navy 17: The spread on this big opening game was a roller coaster, opening at -17 then dropping significantly with Braxton Miller’s injury. The spread climbed nearly all the way back up before falling again on game day. For most of the game, the underdog was in prime position with Navy actually leading deep into the third quarter. Ohio State led by six entering the final frame, but a Navy field goal cut the margin to just three points, seemingly securing the cover for the underdog. It was not to be, however, as Ohio State delivered two long scoring drives to close out the game with the ATS win sealing touchdown with just over two minutes to go as Navy backers took a very tough defeat.

•Boston College (-17) 30, Massachusetts 7: The Eagles led just 20-7 entering the fourth quarter after the Minutemen connected on a 77-yard pass play for their only score of the day. Boston College would pull past the spread with 10 points in the fourth quarter in a game the Eagles had over 500 yards in despite modest scoring.

•Auburn (-17) 45, Arkansas 21: As a heavy underdog, Arkansas played a great first half sitting tied with the defending SEC champions at 21-21 at the break. After an Auburn touchdown, disaster struck for the Razorbacks with an interception returned for a touchdown late in the third quarter putting the Tigers up by 14. Storms were threatening in the fourth quarter and those on the underdog got a big stop with Arkansas holding Auburn to a field goal with less than 10 minutes left in the game to keep the margin at 17 points. A nearly hour and a half delay ensued with lightning in the area, putting Arkansas in an impossible situation to come back and finish the game knowing they had little chance to win. Auburn added a late touchdown to give the heavy favorite a very fortunate cover.

•Georgia (-9½) 45, Clemson 21: This big primetime matchup featured Clemson dominating the yardage in the first half, but Georgia managing to match the Tigers at 21-21 with the help of short field drives and a kickoff return touchdown. After the high scoring first half, the third quarter featured only three points as the severe late line move on this game appeared to be wrong. Georgia would bowl over the Clemson defense in the fourth quarter, however, breaking long runs and scoring three touchdowns in a four-minute span to pull away, producing a misleading final score and misleading yardage totals in the box score.

•Oklahoma (-34) 48, Louisiana Tech 16: Oklahoma was one of the biggest favorites of the weekend as far as FBS matchups, but the spread dropped four points throughout the week. The Sooners dominated the game and led 41-3 entering the fourth quarter, but the underdog Bulldogs would get two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against an uninterested Sooners defense, the second of which came with just 37 seconds left in the game for a spread spoiling backdoor cover.

•LSU (-3½) 28, Wisconsin 24: The spread in the big Saturday night game bounced around between 3½ and 5, making for contrasting results for everyone involved depending on the timing with the closing number falling back to just 3½. Wisconsin was in control early with a 10-point lead at the half, growing to 11-points heading into the fourth quarter. Those on the underdog certainly had growing concern as injuries had decimated a Badgers defense that played well in the first half and the Wisconsin offense was really struggling. As often has been the case with LSU, the Tigers managed to pull ahead with a 28-24 edge in the fourth quarter. Wisconsin seemingly had it last possession deep in its own zone with less than two minutes to go as those on the Badgers +4 or greater held their breath. Gary Andersen oddly opted to punt despite the minimal chance that his team could get the ball back, but the move probably saved LSU from scoring again and earning a clear favorite cover at any number.
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NCAAF Line Watch - Week #2
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo

Each and every week during the 2014-15 college football season right here in our Weekly Stat/Sheets, StatSystems Sports Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out. “Until next week, enjoy and as always the very best of luck” -Jude!

Spread To Bet Now

•Fresno State Bulldogs @ Utah Utes (-10.5, Over/Under 63)
Utah is currently a 10.5-point home favorite and I expect the money to come in on the Utes in this matchup. Utah cruised to an easy 56-14 home win over FCS Idaho State in its season opener. The Utes have a lot of momentum for this game and since they have a bye on deck, we can expect a prime effort in Week #2.

Fresno State was completely out-classed in their 52-13 loss to USC during Week #1. It’s clear that the Bulldogs are not the same team that went 11-2 last season. Now they must play their second consecutive confrontation on the road after taking a physical beating. This line will only go up, so lay the points with Utah now.

Spread To Wait On

•Michigan Wolverines @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4.5, Over/Under 54.5)
Michigan and Notre Dame both won by impressive margins last weekend. The Wolverines beat Appalachian State 52-14 while the Fighting Irish beat Rice 48-17. The early money has come in on Michigan as the Wolverines are down to +4.5 after opening as +5.5 road underdogs. I expect continued line movement downward as the power ratings make this game right around a field goal spread.

Notre Dame is a much better team this season with the return of quarterback Everett Golson. The QB situation in South Bend was a mess last year, but with stability the Irish can run a balanced offense. Michigan has been stale over the last two years and this year doesn’t look any different. I expect the public to be on the underdog, so playing the Irish closer to kick off is the way to go.

Total To Watch

•Michigan State Spartans @ Oregon Ducks (-12, Over/Under 56)
This non-conference matchup is a contrast in styles. Michigan State wins with defense and it plays ball control with its ability to run the football consistently. Oregon wants to play as fast as possible, wearing down its opponent’s defense. The early projected lines here on the strip in Las Vegas have this total pegged at 56 points. Oregon is currently a 12-point favorite, so an opening number in the high 50s makes a lot of sense. Michigan State’s highest posted total during last season was 54 points with twelve of its 14 games set at 48.5 or less.

Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
Both the NFL and NCAAF regular seasons are right around the corner. Will you revert back to making questionable bets all season long and barely breaking even, if not losing money on the year? It's time you take control of your betting future and do it the right way. "Let the Experts here at StatSystems Sports guide you this season and help you crush the books like never before!"

Are you tired of those bad beats, the late back door covers which ruin your bet, along with the repeated mediocre or losing season? Well you've come to the right place and we are here to make sure that never happens again. Our team of Pro's are eagerly awaiting to smash the sportsbooks once again this year in both NFL and NCAAF.

"Why not join in on the profits with them and learn their secrets to success!"
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Quick Hits - Week #2
Systems Analyst James Vogel

Thursday, 9/4/2014

#301 ARIZONA @ #302 UTSA - 8:00 PM
The Wildcats won 38-13 when these teams met last season in Tucson and this will be a daunting early season road trip for an Arizona team with few veteran players in key positions this season. This game is also on a short week for both squads as both teams played Friday night in the opening weekend schedule. Both teams got great results with Arizona posting huge numbers in a blowout and UTSA stunning Houston on the road. Last season Arizona rushed for 264 yards to control the game on the ground, something they may be able to do again with a solid offensive line even with inexperience in the backfield. Arizona only out-gained the Roadrunners by 43 yards in 2013 but a late score for UTSA hid an even more lopsided margin on the scoreboard. UTSA will be seeking a marquee win for the program in its second full FBS season but value may be gone after last week.

Friday, 9/5/2014

#303 PITTSBURGH @ #304 BOSTON COLLEGE - 7:00 PM
These former Big East teams will meet as ACC foes for the first time with the Panthers visiting Chestnut Hill for this primetime matchup. Boston College has led the recent series history but the last meeting was in 2004. The Eagles have been a formidable underdog in recent years and this will be the home opener after opening up southwest of town in Foxborough last week. This is the first of back-to-back road games for a Pittsburgh team that is just 4-7 S/U on the road in two seasons under Paul Chryst. The Eagles have dropped five consecutive lined home openers and after surprising last season it could be a step back 2014 season for BC.

#305 WASHINGTON ST @ #306 NEVADA - 10:30 PM
The Wolf Pack possesses a lot of experience on defense but this will be a daunting matchup to prepare for. Several pass-oriented teams posted big numbers on Nevada last season but this looks like a team that should improve this season, even after some sloppiness in the opening week win over Southern Utah. This will be a second straight game away from home for the Cougars and the smaller conference recruits out west will be thrilled to host a Pac-12 school. Two years ago Nevada beat California as a double-digit underdog and with veteran quarterback Cody Fajardo back for his senior season and an experienced defense this may be a tougher game than expected for the visiting Cougars. Washington State had a prominent opening game and after allowing nearly 33 points per game on average last season the defenses appears to still have issues after losing to Rutgers 41-38, and surrendering big yardage on the ground.

Top-25 Matchups Week #2

#307 FLA ATLANTIC @ #308 ALABAMA - 12:00 PM
The Crimson Tide will face soft spots on the schedule the next two weeks following up a opening game win over West Virginia that was tougher than expected. This line may climb out of control, especially with Florida Atlantic coming off playing in Lincoln last week. The Owls have been a solid ATS road performer in recent years and this line is extremely high. FAU is not an easy team to pass against so there may not be great opportunities for big plays in the air for quarterback Blake Sims, who was inconsistent during Week #1. This is still an inexperienced Alabama roster and this may not yet look like a championship contending team despite the high hopes.

#309 KANSAS ST @ #310 IOWA ST - 12:00 PM
The Cyclones fell out of the bowl picture last season and this will be a key game for the team to move to 1-1 after losing to a formidable North Dakota State team last Saturday. Kansas State had a much weaker opening matchup and with the Auburn game up next for the Wildcats, they could overlook a foe they beat 41-7 in 2013. Iowa State gave a then #6 ranked Kansas State team fits in Ames two years ago as the Wildcats escaped with a narrow win and the Cyclones know the importance of this confrontation in any bowl hopes. Kansas State has not been immune to an upset loss in recent years and the Cyclones should expect to be a much more productive offensive team in 2014 with nearly all of last season’s offense back.

#321 MISSOURI @ #322 TOLEDO - 12:00 PM
Toledo faced a formidable opening opponent in New Hampshire, a quality FCS team and the Rockets still posted big numbers. Toledo has a new quarterback but a lot of other pieces in place for a successful season as they hope to challenge Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference West. Beating one of the top teams in the South Eastern Conference would be a great boost for the program and last season the Rockets played the eventual SEC East champions very tough in a 15-point loss on the road. The yardage was nearly identical but a few Toledo turnovers were costly. Missouri won’t overlook the Rockets but they do have a bigger game with Central Florida up next and the Tigers lost a great deal of quality contributors from last year’s team, featuring only eight returning starters. The Tigers are not getting the support that a defending SEC East champion and Cotton Bowl winner would normally receive but the Tigers also did not impress in its Week #1 win over SDSU.

#339 USC @ #340 STANFORD - 3:30 PM
These teams play in opposing divisions in the Pac-12 but this game will go a long way to shaping the conference race. Stanford is not the favorite in the North despite besting Oregon and winning the conference title the past two seasons. Stanford has a tougher schedule this year and must go to Eugene so there is not much margin for error for the Cardinal this season even if they can upset the Ducks again. USC had a formidable opening game in a bowl rematch with Fresno State and getting win #1 takes a lot of pressure off for new head coach Steve Sarkisian. USC beat then #5 Stanford 20-17 in 2013 at home as the Trojans rallied late in the season under interim coach Ed Orgeron and while this is a talent-rich squad, revenge may be coming from a Stanford program that continues to impress. This is a pretty steep underdog spread for USC in any situation however.

#347 OLE MISS vs. #348 VANDERBILT - 4:30 PM
Mississippi and Vanderbilt played one of the most exciting games of the opening college weekend last season with Ole Miss escaping with a 39-35 win. This season’s game is in Nashville for the second straight year but it will not be at Vanderbilt Stadium. Both of these teams played on the opening Thursday night of college football with sloppy play the theme for both teams. Mississippi survived a great deal of penalties and three interceptions to still win but Vanderbilt was on the wrong side of a lopsided result with seven turnovers to blame. This is a huge game for Vanderbilt as the Commodores attempt to get back on track behind new head coach Derek Mason in a transition season. Mississippi has had two solid years under Hugh Freeze and this is a team that could breakthrough with an even better season in 2014 but moving up in the SEC West is not an easy task. This will be a second game away from home in a row for the Rebels and the early season schedule has been challenging. Mississippi has actually only won S/U in two of the last five meetings between these schools and this matchup may wind up closer than expected with misleading scores during Week #1.
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#351 MICHIGAN ST @ #352 OREGON - 6:30 PM
Both of these squads are among the dozen or so teams most feel have a legitimate shot at making the four-team playoff at the end of the season. The winner will obviously have a huge non-conference win on the resume and should the committee have any tough decisions to make between the Pac-12 and Big Ten this game may be a factor. Oregon is one of the national title favorites but that is a role the Ducks have been in before with no hardware to show for it. Michigan State is coming off a Rose Bowl title in which they went out west and soundly defeated a favored Stanford team that has had Oregon’s number. The Spartans have been moved into the Big Ten favorite role with Ohio State’s misfortune this summer but it is hard to see Michigan State being as strong as last season with some key pieces moving on. Michigan State cruised last week in a tougher than it sounds matchup with Jacksonville State. The Ducks have had a few injuries this summer as well and the Oregon defense has some holes to fill after a great deal of departures as well. Oregon has actually lost a home game in two of the last three seasons but this will be a tough venue for a team that really did not have any overly impressive road wins last season though a light Big Ten schedule plus losing in South Bend.

#359 ARIZONA ST @ #360 NEW MEXICO - 7:00 PM
The Sun Devils won 10 games in 2013 for the first time since 2007 but the season ended sourly with a lopsided bowl defeat. While a handful of transfers help the cause, Arizona State has among the fewest returning starters in the nation, with an especially green defense suiting up this season. Normally this has been a program that has struggled on the road but the Sun Devils are 6-4 S/U on the road under Todd Graham including going 4-1 ATS in the road favorite role the past two seasons. Taylor Kelly looked sharp during Week #1 to lead the Sun Devils to a convincing win over Weber State but next week’s confrontation at Colorado is more important and the Arizona State defense might have some issues against the deliberate rush attack from New Mexico. The Lobo defense has had great issues including allowing nearly 43 points per game last season however. New Mexico had turnover issues last Saturday in a tough opening defeat.

#363 E CAROLINA @ #364 S CAROLINA - 7:00 PM
The Gamecocks have had a bit of extra time to get ready for this contest playing on Thursday night last week but this is a difficult sandwich game in between two huge conference games. The Gamecocks will need that extra time to recover from a stunning blowout loss in which the former South Eastern Conference East favorites allowed nearly 700 yards. East Carolina was pummeled in Columbia early in the 2012 season but the Pirates have a handful of notable wins in recent years with upsets over NC State, Central Florida, and North Carolina in the four years since Ruffin McNeill took over in Greenville. After a 10-3 season it figures to be a step-back season for East Carolina making the leap to the American Athletic Conference with a very tough non-conference schedule as well but few programs have a better underdog record in the past decade. Shane Carden is an impressive quarterback and playing up-tempo is not something the current South Carolina team may be comfortable with, especially after Kenny Hill shredded the Gamecocks in his first start for the Aggies.

#365 SAN JOSE ST @ #366 AUBURN - 7:00 PM
The Tigers had a big Week #1 matchup with Arkansas and next on the schedule is a prominent national non-conference encounter with Kansas State. The Tigers took care of business against smaller school teams last season with three blowout wins and this will be a challenging environment for a San Jose State squad playing across the country. The Spartans may no longer have the great passing game they have had the past two seasons with David Fales and the defense really struggling against the run in 2013, a bad formula for hanging with Auburn. San Jose State should be a competent team in the Mountain West Conference again this season but this is too tough of a matchup and this game does not set-up in a great situation for the underdog.

#371 MICHIGAN @ #372 NOTRE DAME - 7:30 PM
Michigan played in the Sugar Bowl three seasons ago and Notre Dame was in the BCS championship two seasons ago but it seems longer than that as these former national powers feature grounded expectations this season. The underdog has enjoyed incredible success in this series historically but the favorite has won and covered narrowly each of the past two seasons with the host coming out on top. Recent suspensions hurt the cause on defense for an already thin Irish unit but Michigan has regressed statistically on offense and defense in each of the last two seasons under Brady Hoke. While Notre Dame faced a more credible opponent during Week #1, the opener was a big game for Michigan and this line will be shaded a bit low given the overwhelming underdog success in this series. Hoke has not produced a winning road record in any of his five seasons as a head coach at Michigan or San Diego State and the Irish might slip by.

#375 SAN DIEGO ST @ #376 N CAROLINA - 8:00 PM
North Carolina finished 2013 strong with Marquise Williams taking over at quarterback and the Tar Heels winning six of the final seven games of the season. The schedule played a prominent role in both the poor start and strong finish last year and with elevated expectations this season the Tar Heels feel a bit overvalued. Rocky Long has had three successful campaigns in San Diego even with a lot of new players on offense each season. The numbers have been pretty consistent for the Aztecs and this will be a big early season test for the team. San Diego State also finished the 2013 season strong with wins in eight of the final 10 after a 0-3 start. The Aztecs played four overtime games last season and also nearly upset Oregon State. Going up against a Pac-12 team would have more meaning for this team however and the long travel will be a challenge but the Tar Heels may be a fade team early in the season. San Diego State had good balance last Saturday in disposing of Northern Arizona, a ranked FCS team. North Carolina meanwhile played down the competition in a sloppy 56-29 win over Liberty. The Tar Heels got six turnovers but didn’t pull away until the second half in a shaky debut showing despite the final score.

#377 VIRGINIA TECH @ #378 OHIO ST - 8:00 PM
The injury to Heisman candidate Braxton Miller certainly changes the look of this game and a much more competitive contest is now expected. Virginia Tech has a new quarterback as well but most of the rest of the offense is back. The Hokies fell well short in their toughest games last season however with blowout losses to both Alabama and UCLA. Virginia Tech has a great underdog track record under Frank Beamer while Ohio State has been tough to go against in the home favorite role with strong historical numbers for both teams. This should now be a game that the Hokies really believe they can win in and a great Virginia Tech secondary will likely force the Buckeyes into a more one-dimensional attack. Ohio State should have better success stopping the run than the statistics from last week suggest but Virginia Tech was very sound against the run during Week #1 as well. Ohio State won by 17 last Saturday but it was a very misleading final and this will be a much tougher test for the new-look Buckeyes offense.

#379 OKLAHOMA @ #380 TULSA - 12:00 PM
This series often looks like a promising opportunity for Tulsa, taking on the marquee program in the state. It often ends poorly for the Hurricane however, including a 51-20 loss in Norman last season. An Oklahoma offense that didn’t play well the first two weeks broke out in that game and this season the Sooners should be very tough on both sides of the ball. Tulsa has a veteran defense but it was not a quality unit last year in an ugly 3-9 season to follow-up an 11-3 Conference USA championship season in 2012. This is a program in a favorable position to bounce back with better results in 2014 but this does not figure to be a matchup the team can expect to compete in. It won’t be a great home field edge with OU fans invading Chapman Stadium and in the big picture the other games on the schedule are much more important for the Hurricane. Oklahoma does have Tennessee on deck in the schedule but Tulsa is coming off one of the most fortunate wins ever and the run defense was terrible during Week #1.

#381 MEMPHIS @ #382 UCLA 10:00 PM
The Bruins will open the season with as much national fanfare as they have had in over a decade but this could be a tricky matchup on the schedule. The Bruins had to play across the country at Virginia last weekend and next on the schedule is a huge national game with Texas in Arlington. UCLA struggled offensively during Week #1 only to get bailed out by Virginia mistakes with three defensive touchdowns. Memphis was just 3-9 in 2013 but it was a very competitive team that returns much of the roster from last year. Memphis only lost twice by more than 14 points during the campaign and both of those defeats came at the end of the season after the goals of the season were dashed and with the team banged up. Memphis played Central Florida, Houston, and Louisville very tough in 2013 and the Tigers will be a formidable underdog.
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Gridiron Trends - Week #2
•NORTH TEXAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NORTH TEXAS 30.5, OPPONENT 18.4.

•ARKANSAS ST is 19-3 UNDER (+15.7 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 19.3, OPPONENT 25.2.

•UAB is 9-25 (-67.1 Units) against the money line after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was UAB 23.4, OPPONENT 32.8.

•NEW MEXICO ST is 4-20 (-18.0 Units) against the 1rst half line in a road game where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 since 1992.
The average score was NEW MEXICO ST 9.6, OPPONENT 27.6.

•E MICHIGAN is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 10.7, OPPONENT 28.0.

•PAUL JOHNSON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of GEORGIA TECH.
The average score was JOHNSON 35.7, OPPONENT 17.7.

•TERRY BOWDEN is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of AKRON.
The average score was BOWDEN 19.0, OPPONENT 27.8.

•MARK HUDSPETH is 10-1 (+16.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 37 points or more last game as the coach of LA LAFAYETTE.
The average score was HUDSPETH 32.4, OPPONENT 27.1.

•KIRK FERENTZ is 40-13 (+25.7 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of IOWA.
The average score was FERENTZ 16.6, OPPONENT 7.9.

•PAUL RHOADS is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of IOWA ST.
The average score was RHOADS 8.7, OPPONENT 10.9.

Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play On - A home team versus the money line (NEVADA) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion percentage of 62% or better, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season.
(38-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.4%, +37.2 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +113.6
The average score in these games was: Team 42.5, Opponent 17.7 (Average point differential = +24.8)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +3.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-5, +26.1 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (59-14, +21.2 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (73-22, +13 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Jones

NFL Green Bay Packers(+6)-110...(3*)