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Scott Rickenbah
Seattle/Texas Over
Seattle/Texas Over
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From THE PLATINUM SHEET
GREEN BAY (461) at SEATTLE (462)
Latest Line: Seahawks -5.5; Total: 47.5
The defending Super Bowl Champions will run early and often and lean on their smothering defense. QB Russell Wilson makes a big impact in limited chances, and if WR Percy Harvin stays healthy, he’ll be the best passing-game weapon Seattle has had in a long time. The Packers will compete for the NFC title if QB Aaron Rodgers stays healthy. RB Eddie Lacy is an emerging star, and plenty of talent remains in Green Bay's receiving corps. LB Clay Matthews and new DE Julius Peppers should be able to pressure opposing quarterbacks, though the Packers' gambling secondary is prone to allowing big plays.
StatFox Trends Six Pack:
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS in all lined games since the start of the 2012 season.
SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS against conference opponents since the start of the 2012 season.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since the start of the 2012 season.
GREEN BAY is 58-37 OVER in games played on turf since 1992.
Mike McCarthy is 40-27 ATS in road lined games as coach of GREEN BAY.
Mike McCarthy is 13-5 OVER against NFC West division opponents as coach of GREEN BAY.
FORECASTER: Seattle 31, Green Bay 16Comment
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HARRY BONDI
College Football Free Play
TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (+7) over Arizona
8 p.m. ET
Texas San Antonio is fairly new to the Division I scene but this is one of the most experienced rosters in college football, with 21 returning starters and more seniors (37) than most programs have in two seasons. Head Coach Larry Coker, who won a national championship at Miami, has instilled a physical and nasty style of play and that was clearly evident last week, especially on defense, when the Roadrunners (+10) shutdown Houston in a 27-7 victory. That was a against a Houston offense that averaged more than 30 points per game last season. Arizona steamrolled UNLV last week but we’re not comfortable laying a TD on the road here with a redshirt freshman at QB against a veteran defense. Texas San Antonio is a profitable 15-7 ATS the last three years, including 5-1 in September. This is an overlay. Take the home dog.Comment
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THE REAL ANIMAL SPORTS
Free plays 3-0 last week. Tonight 2* UTSA +7:
The line value has diminished greatly tonight with UTSA only +7. A year ago they were +24 ½ in Tucson and lost 38-13. Certainly catching six turnovers contributed to the upset win at Houston, spoiling the new stadium opener for the Cougars. But the Roadrunners have 37 seniors and 10 returning starters on defense, a unit that is allowing just 10.4 points per game in their last five. Plus we catch Arizona freshman QB Anu Solomon making his road debut. Last week he posted 425 passing yards and four touchdowns on the way to a school-record 787 total yards against UNLV. But Arizona last year won at UNLV 58-13 (same score as last week) and then proceeded to only win at Cal by five points and lost at Washington by 18 and Arizona State by 37. UTSA has won six straight. Arizona is just 4-6 SU in their last 10 on the road and their only wins last year came against bottom-feeders UNLV, Colorado, and Cal. Coach Rodriguez is only 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS in his 12 road openers. Meanwhile Coach Coker is 16-8 ATS as an underdog in his career. Arizona’s front seven is extremely small by Pac-12 standards and UTSA loves to run the football. UTSA had a 40:22-22:14 advantage over Houston with the clock and held the cougars to just 208 total yards of offense including -26 on the ground! While UTSA lost by 25 at Arizona last year they were only out-gained by 43 total yards. Curiously, the Wildcats are 3-14 ATS on the road after outgaining their last opponent by 225 yards or more. Note that UTSA was in revenge last week after losing to Houston 59-28. This team is vastly improved. Grab the points with the Roadrunners.Comment
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Ben Burns
Green Bay vs. Seattle - September 4, 2014 - 8:30 PM
Pick: Your pick will be graded at BetOnline @ Under 46 -110
Evaluation: Sep 4 - 8:30 PM
Reason For Pick:
I'm playing Green Bay and Seattle UNDER the total. This is a very good opening night game. It's a rematch of the famous "Fail Mary" game on Monday Night Football two years ago and could end up being a preview of this year's NFC Championship Game. Though it's "only" opening night, I anticipate a "playoff-like intensity" and a lower-scoring game than most are expecting.
When these teams met that fateful Monday night two years ago, it was a very low-scoring affair. It was a 14-12 game and that's including the winning score, which should not have counted. The key for Seattle (other than the replacement refs) was sacking Aaron Rodgers eight times. The Seahawks pass rush may very well not be that dominant this time, but the secondary is now the best in the league and overall the defense is better.
By now, you're familiar with many of the names on this Seattle defense which led the team to a win in Super Bowl 48. All the key players, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas chief among them, are back having been re-signed. At home is where this group really shined a year ago. They allowed just 14.2 points per game at Century Link, holding the likes of New Orleans to just seven points and San Francisco only three. Both of those were night games by the way.
So to expect Rodgers and the Packers offense to come in here and put a significant number of points on the board would be unwise. Not only is the Under 7-0 in Seattle's last seven conference games, but it's 5-0 their last five home games. All four of Green Bay's September games went Over last year. That's not likely to happen again.
The public, which tends to love Overs, has predictably bet this number up a couple points already. That signals value in going the other direction right away.
Seattle opened last season with a 12-7 win. That was on the road, but also one of four games they failed to score more than 17 points.
There were only three games all year where the Seahawks allowed more than 20 points in 2013. Only three of their games featured a total higher than this one. Two of them went Under. The other was the Super Bowl.
If Seattle gets an early lead, look for them not to take a lot of chances and play ball control on offense. 9* main event.Comment
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Locksmith Sports
NFL
2* Seattle -6 (-105)
MLB
1* Red Sox +130
1* Tigers -134
CFB
1* Texas San Antonio +7 (-110)Comment
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Sam Martin's HUGE 25* CFB THURS GAME OF THE YEAR!! Arizona WildcatsComment
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Brandon Lang
40 DIME
DOUBLE YOUR WAGER
MONEY MOVE
Green Bay PackersComment
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Indian Cowboy
5* Mariners/Rangers UNDER 8 12Comment
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Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee lost in tennis at Flushing Meadows in the US Open on Wednesday with Stan Wawrinka -$170/Kei Nishikori.
Ben lee won in MLB in the American League on Wednesday with the Royals -$178/Rangers.
For Thursday in the NFL E&B like the Seahawks -6/Packers.
"Mr Chalk" has Np for Thursday.
Ben lee is 2-2 -$62 for week forty five 204-230-5 -$2849 through Forty Four Weeks.
"Mr Chalk" is 73-52 -$278 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless notedComment
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GOODFELLA
Thursday Night MLB Team Total
DETROIT TIGERS – OVER 4 RUNS (@BOL)Comment
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Dave Cokin
2* UTSA +7Comment
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Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Yankees are 0-12 since May 05, 2013 after playing as a favorite of more than -110 when it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $1642 when playing against.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Max Scherzer starts the Tigers are 12-0 since May 30, 2010 as a favorite against an AL foe after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $1200.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Reds are 8-1 (+$1,128) since June 19, 2007 as a 140+ dog when they are off two losses in which they never led.
CHOICE TREND:
The Orioles are 10-0 since May 2006 as a 140+ favorite after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Chris Tillman starts the Orioles are 12-2 since June 04, 2013 after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $1115.Comment
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Jeff Clement
10* Green Bay +6
8* Detroit -134
7* Reds/ Orioles UNDER 8 (-120)Comment
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Johnny Wynn
Arizona/ UTSA UNDER 56Comment
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