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7-Unit play. Take #340 Arkansas (+3.5) over Georgia (4:00 p.m., Saturday, October 18) Georgia is faced with a difficult task this week: Go back on the road and duplicate last week's effort without Todd Gurley. This is too much to ask of a Mark Richt coached team. Richt's teams have consistently come up "small" in big games over the past 5+ years (with last week being one of the only exceptions). UGA is getting a lot of love from national analysts this week and they are set up for a huge letdown. The Dawgs do not have a great interior defensive line and that will be the biggest factor in this ball game. Arkansas has a huge offensive line (bigger than any NFL line) and they move people off the ball. The Razorbacks have two very good running backs, Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. Williams is as good as any back in college football not named Gurley. His down hill running will present many problems for the Georgia defense. Brandon Allen is a competitor and he has played much better at the quarterback position this year. The Razorbacks use a lot of "sneaky" play-action passing plays that often find tight ends like Hunter Henry wide open. The young, inexperienced defensive backs of UGA will fall prey to at least one big play where a tight end is wide open behind the defense. Arkansas has played much better on defense as of late and they held Alabama to 89 yards rushing last week. A similar effort vs Georgia and they will win this game by 14+ points. This is an extremely tough spot for Georgia. Bret Bielema is turning the Arkansas program back into a contender and they are looking for that "signature" win. I believe it happens this week vs. an over-hyped Georgia team.
6-Unit Play. Take #328 Duke (-2.5) over Virginia (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 18) The fact that this line opened at five and dropped to this point is baffling. Duke is just a better team than Virginia, especially when Virginia has to play on the road. I know that VA is 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, but those were against lines that were much higher than this, and all of them resulted in Virginia losses. Virginia was 1-4 S.U. on the road in 2012-2013, 0-4 S.U. on the road last season, and they are 0-1 S.U. on the road thus far this season. In no way should this line be this low. If this was a more high profile game you would think something was up with the line, it was "fishy," but not in this case. This is just a case of people sleeping on Duke. This Blue Devils team is 5-1 S.U. on the season and they have covered eight of their last 10 conference games, seven of their last eight versus teams with winning records, and 11 of their last 15 games overall. Like I said before, homefield is crucial in this contest as the home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings between the two teams. Even better for us, Virginia is just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings with Duke, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Duke. Take the small home favorite in this one.
4* UNDER 57.5 New Mexico/Air Force (#343/344) 3:30 pm
3.5* UNDER 54 Nebraska/Northwestern (#399/400) 7:30 pm
3* OVER 56.5 Notre Dame/FLorida St (#403/404) 8 pm
3* UNDER 51.5/52 USF/Tulsa (#345/346) Noon
3* UNDER 50.5/51 Virginia/Duke (#327/328) 12:30 pm
CFB Totals Top Opinions:
OVER 63 Cincinnati/SMU (#351/352) 3:30pm
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