10-28-14

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Ben Burns

10* Personal Favorite

Chicago Blackhawks -147

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Sean Higgs

5* SF Giants

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PhillyGodFather:


912 KC ROYALS 135

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Maddux Sports

NBA Futures

Atlanta Over 41.5
Denver Over 41.5
Detroit Over 35.5
Phoenix Under 43.5
Utah Over 25.5
Portland Under 49

Denver to win NW Division +1900

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Indian Cowboy

8* Over 7 Runs. San Francisco vs. Kansas City

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Today's NBA Picks

Houston at LA Lakers

The Rockets open up the season on the road against the Lakers and come into the contest with a 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games versus Los Angeles. Houston is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28 Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (10/27)

Game 501-502: Dallas at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 127.910; San Antonio 129.537 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 202 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 206 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+4 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Orlando at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 109.725; New Orleans 121.690 Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 12; 203 Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 196 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Houston at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 124.716; LA Lakers 116.185 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8 1/2; 212 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6; 206 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Over

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NBA Futures - Best Bets
By ASA

NBA Finals "Longshot" - Los Angeles Clippers

According to oddsmakers , the Clippers have the fifth-best odds to win the 2014 NBA Championship behind the Cavs, Spurs, Bulls, and Thunder.

There are plenty of concerns among the four teams ahead of the Clippers and questions that need to be answered. How will the Cavs mesh in the first year with three superstars?

Will Derrick Rose be the player he was three years ago?

How will the Thunder respond without Durant in the lineup for an extended period?

Will the Spurs finally start to slow down with an aging roster?

While those answers aren’t clear at this time, it’s fair to say that Los Angeles is the only squad without major questions surrounding the team heading into the season.

They ended 2013 as the third best team in the West last year, finishing five games behind San Antonio and two games behind OKC.

The Clippers were one of the favorites to compete for the 2013 NBA Finals once the playoffs began and they were headed in the right direction, up 2-1 against the Warriors in the 1st Round, when the Donald Sterling controversy came to light. The media storm surrounding Sterling was inescapable for the team, the league, and its fans. The emotional fallout forced the LAC-GS series to go longer than necessary and took its toll on the team.

Even then, the Clippers survived the Warriors in seven games and were right there with OKC in the 2nd Round. LAC won Game 1 and with the series tied at 2-2, OKC squeaked out a home win, 105-104, shifting the series momentum in the Thunder's favor.

They entered the offseason not knowing who their owner would be or what kind of drastic measures it might take to get away from Sterling. Ultimately the Clippers truly grew closer over the course of last season and the offseason and chemistry wise, the Clippers have never been better.

There weren't a ton of improvements to be made on last year's roster, but the Clips did a nice job of upgrading their bench. They brought in Jordan Farmar to replace Darren Collison as the backup point guard. Farmar is an underrated shooter and can run the offense off the bench. He's a great fit with this roster and is an upgrade over what Collison brought to the table in 2013.

LAC also brought back Glen Davis and acquired Spencer Hawes to solidify the frontcourt depth. Hawes can function as a rebounder and can spread the floor as a stretch 4/5, and will be a nice change of pace from DeAndre Jordan.

LAC, in the second year under proven head coach Doc Rivers, will be better than last year's version and are a great under-the-radar bet to win the 2014 NBA Finals.

OVER 32.5 Wins - Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have the biggest change in win totals from last season, when they were slated to win 54.5 games, to this season, where they are slated to win just 32.5 and finish nine games below .500. The 22-game difference can be attributed to the fact that Indiana lost its two best offensive players in the offseason when Lance Stephenson left in free agency and when Paul George suffered a broken leg while participating on Team USA in the FIBA World Cup.

The offense will struggle without Stephenson or George in the lineup, but the defense will allow them to compete. Frank Vogel's squad has had one of the top defensive systems in the NBA over the last few seasons, a system will be even more defense-oriented in 2014.

The Pacers of 2014 will resemble that of the Chicago Bulls sans Derrick Rose in the lineup. The Rose-less Bulls of 2012 & 2013 were slow (4th slowest pace in '12, 2nd slowest in '13), bad offensively (last in PPG in '12 & '13), and great defensively (3rd in PPG allowed in '12, 1st in PPG allowed in '13).

Chicago finished with 48 wins in 2013 and 45 in 2012. Expect that Indiana will use a similar formula in 2014 that will allow them to compete for a playoff spot in a subpar Eastern Conference.

Don't expect the Pacers to fall too far and take Indiana to win OVER 32.5 games.

UNDER 48.5 Wins - Portland Trailblazers

Last season the young Blazers rode a red hot 22-4 start to the season to a playoff berth and an overall record of 54-28 in the regular season. It was a remarkable turnaround for the Blazers who had won just 61 total games in the previous season.

In fact, the 21 more wins they had last season compared to the previous season was the biggest turnaround in the NBA last season. A big reason for Portland's success last season was the fact they had the second fewest lost minutes (injuries) by starters for the year.

The Blazers won't be sneaking up on anyone this season and of course they play in the much tougher Western Conference. Interestingly enough, of the Blazers 54 regular season wins last season, 23 came by 7-points or less so obviously when a few of those games don't go their way this season they won't threaten their win total of 48.5 games.

Don't get me wrong we love the young Blazers roster with LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Damian Lillard, Wesley Mathews and Robin Lopez but we don't expect a team that was 19th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.043 points per possession last season to finish with 50+ wins.

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Game of the Day: Rockets at Lakers

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers (+6, 213)

Kobe Bryant makes his return from a knee injury and will see Dwight Howard on the floor when the Los Angeles Lakers open the season against the visiting Houston Rockets on Tuesday. Bryant was limited to six games last season due to two leg injuries and the Lakers bottomed out with a franchise-worst 27-55 mark. Howard, who played for Los Angeles in 2012-13, combined with guard James Harden to fuel Houston to a 54-28 record last season.

The 36-year-old Bryant might not be the player he was two or three years ago but he is interested in finding out where his current talent level resides. “I’m trying to see if I can prove to myself that I can be myself,” Bryant told reporters. “All those words and the doubts add fuel to that.” Howard suffered a laceration on his right forearm last Friday but will definitely play in the opener.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened the Rockets as 6-point road favorites and the total at 213.

POWER RANKINGS: Rockets (-11.9) - Lakers (-3) + home court (-3.0) = Rockets -5.9

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Houston let some of their best role players go in order to free up some money to sign one of the big free agents on the market. But they failed to sign anybody, and the Rockets have a thin bench and little depth now because of it. Houston still has James Harden and Dwight Howard, so all is not lost. The Los Angeles Lakers are in desperate need of an overhaul. Los Angeles is old and slow, and the veterans are injury prone. The Lakers’ defense projects to be terrible this season, and they will get a stiff challenge right away from the Rockets in this first game of the regular season." Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (2013-14: 54-28 SU, 40-40-2 ATS): One of Houston’s key players last season – small forward Chandler Parsons – signed with Dallas as a free agent and the Rockets signed Trevor Ariza (14.4 scoring average in 2013-14) to replace him. Point guard Patrick Beverley had a strong late-season surge to solidify his spot and power forward Terrence Jones is on the rise but coach Kevin McHale doesn’t mince words when it comes to who carries the team. “For us to have the type of year we need to have,” McHale told reporters. “James Harden and Dwight Howard are going to have to play at an all-pro level night-in and night-out for us.”

ABOUT THE LAKERS (2013-14: 27-55 SU, 40-40-2 ATS): Instead of Steve Nash – who is out for the season with a back injury -- at the point, it will be Jeremy Lin, who averaged 12.5 points and 4.1 assists last season for Houston before being shipped to Los Angeles in the offseason. Lin lost his starting gig with the Rockets to Beverley and the matchup figures to be one to watch closely. Among the new Los Angeles players are veteran big man Carlos Boozer and impressive rookie Julius Randle, the seventh overall draft in the draft.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Los Angeles.
* Favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Rockets are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 59 percent of wagers are backing the visiting Rockets.

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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | ORLANDO at NEW ORLEANS
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record
109-58 since 1997. ( 65.3% | 45.2 units )

NBA | ORLANDO at NEW ORLEANS
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) in non-conference games, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers
30-10 since 1997. ( 75.0% | 19.6 units )

NBA | ORLANDO at NEW ORLEANS
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of >=45.5%
364-243 since 1997. ( 60.0% | 96.7 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | BUFFALO at TORONTO
Play Against - Home Favorites of -200 to -300 against the money line (TORONTO) off a home loss, a bad team (30% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record in the first half of the season
17-9 since 1997. ( 65.4% | 23.5 units )

NHL | BUFFALO at TORONTO
Play Against - A favorite against the money line (TORONTO) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team (30% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=30%) in the first half of the season
66-46 since 1997. ( 58.9% | 43.1 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -0.5 units )

NHL | NEW JERSEY at PITTSBURGH
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (PITTSBURGH) poor closing team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in third period, after a blowout win by 3 goals or more
57-16 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.1% | 33.9 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

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NBA Betting: 2014 NBA Betting – Three Best Regular Season Win Total Bets

The NBA season comes closer and closer, and so it’s worth diving into some win total propositions that have been set for the season. Where can you find some good bets?

1 – Dallas Mavericks: Over 49

When the Mavericks got the eighth and final playoff seed in the Western Conference last season, it didn’t seem to be anything that was going to amount to much. However, Dallas became the team that gave the San Antonio Spurs more of a run than any other in the Western Conference, not to mention the Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. Dallas was hard for San Antonio to defend, mostly because guard Monta Ellis played at an extremely high plane. He really picked up his game and showed just how badly he wanted to be in a good situation after being stuck in Milwaukee with the dysfunctional Bucks. Ellis proved that he is a competent defender, and as long as he can be okay on that side, his offense is very powerful. Dallas became a far better team with Ellis, and now the Mavericks have added Chandler Parsons and Tyson Chandler to their roster. This team will be very disappointed if it doesn’t win at least 52 or 53 games this season.

2 – New Orleans Pelicans: Under 44

Because of the growth of Anthony Davis as a player who is now a star and is on his way to becoming a superstar in the league, New Orleans is being looked at as a team that can do a lot of damage and seriously threaten to make the playoffs. The part about threatening to make the playoffs is reasonable, but in all likelihood, the Pelicans will need the Western Conference to come down from where it was last season. Winning 47 games wasn’t even enough to make the playoffs in the West last season, a sign of how tough that conference was. If New Orleans is going to make the playoffs, the worst playoff team in the West will need to have 42 or 43 wins. The Pelicans don’t have enough proven wing players to complement Davis. They still have to show as a team that they’re much stronger on defense than they were a season ago. So many improvements have to occur for the Pelicans, and that’s why they should be doubted in their attempt to win more than 44 games.

3 – Phoenix Suns: Over 44

For some, it will make sense to question the Phoenix Suns this year. Everyone in the NBA will be waiting for them after they snuck up on a lot of teams a season ago. This year could be more of a bumpy ride for Phoenix, and that possibility has to be acknowledged. However, the Suns are an extremely young team, and they should only get better under head coach Jeff Hornacek, who pulled all the right strings last season in one of the best coaching jobs in the Association. If the Suns don’t run into bad injury luck, they should be able to do at least as well as their 48-34 mark, if not improve upon it one season later.

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play TUES NO Pelicans -9 1/2

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Washington (+9 1/2) on Monday and likes on the Mavericks on Tuesday.

The deficit is 853 sirignanos.

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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Today

I'm taking calling it quits for October taking the next five days off. October was the worst month I've ever had in over twenty years of doing this. Hopefully some days off will let the black pass by and I'll stop losing games like USC on Saturday and the Eagles on Sunday. Check back on Saturday November 1st when i will crank it up again.