11-23-14

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Fezzik

3* NFL Total of the Year
Denver/Miami UNDER 49


2* Seattle/Arizona UNDER 42

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Mike O'Connor


***Cleveland (+3.5 -125) 27 Atlanta 21

Sun Nov-23-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 251 Over/Under 46.5

The Browns didn’t play well last week in their 7-23 loss at home against the Texans but they were coming off of a big divisional statement win in Cincinnati against their in-state rivals and were flat as a result. The same thing happened earlier this season after they clobbered the Steelers in Week 6 (31-10) then lost as a favorite the following week to the previously winless Jaguars (6-24). Just as they bounced back the week after that game for a ten point win against the Raiders (24-14), I expect that they’ll bounce back in this spot as well. Cleveland is right in the thick of it in the AFC North with a 6-4 record and they know that they can’t afford to slip up here. They should be able to move the ball well against a Falcons defense that has not been good this season in allowing 404 total yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that average 343 yards at 5.5 yppl. Cleveland should get a boost from the return of WR Josh Gordon, who is coming off his ten game suspension to start the season. Last year, Gordon led the NFL with 1646 receiving yards on 87 receptions for an 18.9 yard average with nine touchdowns without a competent quarterback. His return, coupled with the return last week of 2014 Browns leading receiver Andrew Hawkins, should provide the Browns passing offense with a spark. They’ll face the NFL’s worst pass defense that has allowed 280 yards at 7.8 yps to teams that gain 239 yards at 6.3 yps on average and provide a great matchup for the Cleveland passing offense.


On the other side, the Browns defend the pass well (allowing 229 yards at 6.0 yps to teams that gain 243 yards at 6.5 yps) and should be able to minimize the Falcons strength, which is their passing offense. Atlanta is coming off of two divisional wins and find themselves in first place in the bad NFC South with a 4-6 record and any may not have their best in this non-conference game. The Browns benefit from a negative 53-113-3 statistical match-up situation that plays against Atlanta as well as a 103-53-4 situation that plays on dogs that lost big as a favorite last week. My model predicts a 2.0 point Browns victory in this one, so with what appears to be a good spot, with good situations and some line value, I’ll take the Browns +3.5 (-125) for 3-stars down to +3 -115 and for 2-stars at up to +3 -1

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Doc Sports



5 Unit Play. #256/#224 Take New England Patriots -7 over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX)

TOP NFL Game of the Week

The Patriots are the best team in the AFC at the moment, having won six straight games, including blowouts the last three weeks. Two of those blowouts came against Denver and Indianapolis, teams that are better than Detroit. The Lions have been winning close a lot of late, but that came to an end last week in Arizona when their offense did not do much of anything. That came against a back-up quarterback in Drew Stanton, and now they must face one of the all-time greats in Tom Brady. The Patriots are getting it down on both sides of the football, and Detroit has given up 31 sacks this season. New England is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS when playing at home coming off a Sunday Night game. Week 12 has not been kind to Detroit, going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Week 12 games. New England has covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 home games.


4 Unit Play. #262/#218 Take Houston Texans -1 over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 pm CBS)

Both of these teams have had up and down seasons; however, the Texans are coming off a dominating performance against Cleveland in their last game. This is the same Browns teams that pounded Cincinnati two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. Andy Dalton will blow up in this game from the pressure by JJ Watt and company and allow Houston to get a much needed victory at home.


4 Unit Play. #268/#230 Take Seattle Seahawks -6.5 over Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX)

The Redbirds continue to win games and have a two-game lead in the NFC West, making this game a must-win for Seattle. Drew Stanton has filled in well for Carson Palmer, but playing Detroit in the desert is much different than playing the Seahawks in the Emerald City. Seattle has covered the spread 68% of the time over the last decade when playing games at home. Russell Wilson has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs, and that is something that will keep the Arizona defense off-balance. Seattle is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record.

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Jason Sample:
3 UNITS:

7pt Tease: Packers -4 / Broncos -1 / Niners -2.5 (+150)

These are 1 UNIT each:

Falcons -3 (-120)
Ravens +3.5

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Norm Hitzges

NFL


DOUBLE PLAY: Seattle -7 Arizona


SINGLE PLAYS

Philly -11 Tennessee
Philly--Tennessee OVER 48 1/2
San Francisco -9 Washington
San Francisco--Washington UNDER 44
Cincinnati +1 1/2 Houston

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INDIAN COWBOY


7-Unit Play #254 TakePhiladelphia Eagles -11 over Tennessee Titans (Sunday @ 1pm est)

TheEagles could win by a huge margin here so we will take them despite them layingdouble-digit points. At the end of the day, you have to think of what happenedlast week between these two teams. It's the ebb and flow of the NFL. The publicis high on the Titans because of them taking down the public losing by just afield goal to the Steelers which of course is good for us because the Steelerscontinue their win total as we have a 8-unit future on the over 8.5 wins forthe Steelers this season (Chargers Over 7.5 wins last year's 8-unit futurewhich was a winner that also cashed early). And the Titans were an activeunderdog which sent the game over. Per this game, the Eagles looked wayovermatched against the Packers that routed them from start to finish. It wasKelly's worst loss in some time losing 20-53 against a high octane Packeroffense. Prior to that this team had beat Carolina by 24 points, Houston by 10points, the Giants by 27 and the Jaguars by 17 points. The Eagles one wouldhave to think are highly motivated similar to the Ravens who were highlymotivated after a tough loss on the road to the Steelers and they came back tobeat the Titans by 2 touchdowns. Mettenberger looked good in his last outingbut he runs into an Eagles team furious, who is going to look to put up a greatdeal of points as if the Steelers had success against the Titans scoring,imagine what the Eagles can do looking to bounce-back. The Titans havestruggled against winning teams on the road as they are 0-4 ATS when facingteams with home winning records and the Eagles to their credit and Coach Chip'scredit are 4-0 ATS coming off a straight up and 4-0 ATS coming off a straightup loss of 14 points or more as well.


3-Unit Play #262 Take Houston-1.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday @ 1pm est)

The Texans played fantasticagainst the Browns and that's the type of Texans Football that you will seegoing forward. You have a newbie quarterback who goes on the road and throws afade rout to JJ Watt and he actually catches it. He finally convinced thecoaches to indeed put him at a wideout position in goal line situations. Then,you have a defense that holds the Browns to just 7 points after scoring 23points which is more than enough for this defense to hold on to. The Bengalsare a fickle team. Yes, they came together after being blownout in theirprevious game and did much better against the Saints on the road but now theywill revert back to the Bengals of old and likely play down to their opponentas the Bengals have trouble against strong defensive lines such as the Texanswhich is why Houston is actually favored here. Look for the public to take asmall hit here as Houston continues to roll to 6-5 with a winner here as Malletcontinues to gain confidence. The Texans are a team that gains confidence afterwins as they are 8-2 ATS coming off a straight up win of 14 points or more, theBengals are 1-3-1 ATS against the AFC in their last 5 contests and the Texansare 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC.


3-Unit Play #268 Take SeattleSeahawks -7 over Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)

TheSeahawks certainly remember losing to the Cardinals at home in their place lasttime and will not want that to happen again. Arizona comes off a very nice winover the Lions but the Lions have a hapless offense of late and their thoughtheir defense is sound Arizona made enough minimum plays to win 14-6. TheCardinals and their quarterback need to make a substantial number of plays hereto beat Seattle on the road. And no sneaking up on Seattle either as theSeahawks are well aware that they lost to this team last time, they are awarethey play the division leaders, so look for Seattle to step up here and playwell and get some revenge and Arizona likely gets into a world of storm here asthough their defense will keep them in the game as long as they can, look forSeattle to win 23-10 and consequently by double-digits.


3-Unit Play #270 Take San DiegoChargers -4.5 over St. Louis Rams (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)

(Justwait on this line, it will likely keep dropping as public is on St. Louis afterDenver win)
Yaythe Rams won! Shaun Hill is the new savior! Really? Sure the Rams won and propsto them for hammering the public as with a new quarterback this team ralliedbehind him and did well. Vegas expected as much which is why the line was just7 and closed at 8 to see the Rams win 22-8 in what was a rout frankly for theRams and their defensive line. Peyton continues to struggle against strongdefenses. But, per this game, the emotion is gone and now this team is notgoing to be as excited to play the Chargers on the road after such a big winagainst Denver. St. Louis is the same team that lost to Arizona on the road by17, Kansas City by 27 and Minnesota by 28 points in the opening game. Sure, St.Louis also had some big wins such as over the Niners and Seahawks but do notethat this team has not won back to back ATS games all year. It has been asee-saw so this team has not had consistency which is what the Rams havedesperately searching for. With the Chargers beating the Raiders last week inlackluster fashion (Raiders had revenge) but the Chargers are certainly goingto get up for the team that beat the Broncos. San Diego has a tendency tobounce-back nicely after a poor offensive performance, such as 13 pointsagainst the Raiders - though they did win - as they are 9-2 ATS in their last11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their game prior and the Rams asmentioned before are 0-4 ATS following a straight up win and 0-5 ATS followingan ATS win to boot.

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Mark Lawrence

Late Telephone Selections:

3*- 258 – Vikings (+8)
3*- 268 – Seahawks (-7)

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Sports Insights
NFL Best Bets 28-23 +2.74 units


Game Time (ET)

Play

Best Line

11/23 1:00 PM 262 Play on HOU -1.5-105
11/23 4:05 PM 268 Play on SEA -7-105
11/23 4:05 PM 270 Play on SD -4.5-110
11/23 4:25 PM 272 Play on DEN Under 48.5-110
11/24 8:40 PM 278 Play on NO -3-115

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King Creole


3*** BEST BET

BROWNS / FALCONS OVER 47

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Spartan

Triple Dime Game of the Month

Dolphins +7

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Strike Point Sports

Houston Texans -1

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Jason Sharpe

5* Houston Texans -1

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BEN BURNS (NFL)

BREAKFAST CLUB ----- UNDER - Cincinnati vs Houston

SHOCKER ----- Washington Redskins

10* DIV GOY ----- Seattle Seahawks

10* BEST BET ----- NY Giants

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Wayne Root

Pinnacle - Vikings
Inner Circle - Lions