12-21-14

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TheRealWiseOne

$10,000 - Lions -6.5 (-120)

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StatFox Super Situations

NFL | CLEVELAND at CAROLINA
Play On - Road teams (CLEVELAND) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, after the first month of the season
54-23 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 3.7 units )

NFL | NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (NY JETS) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games
179-103 since 1997. ( 63.5% | 0.0 units )
4-4 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

NFL | BALTIMORE at HOUSTON
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (HOUSTON) good passing team (6.7-7.3 PYA) against a poor passing defense (6.7-7.3 PYA) after 8+ games
112-60 since 1997. ( 65.1% | 46.0 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 3.7 units )

NFL | BALTIMORE at HOUSTON
Play On - Home teams (HOUSTON) off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG)
49-20 since 1997. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

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Mike O'Connor :


I have three Best Bets so far and I'm still working on several others so please be on the lookout for your next update on Friday.

Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***WASHINGTON (+7.5) 26 Philadelphia 24

Sat Dec-20-2014 at 01:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 106 Over/Under 50.5

The Redskins played well in their 13-24 loss last week to the Giants as they outgained New York 372 yards at 5.5 yppl to 287 yards at 5.0 yppl, winning strong in the trenches (144 rushing yards at 5.3 ypr to 49 at 2.2 ypr for the Giants). They have some talent and I expect that they’ll play well and keep this one close against an Eagles team that has taken a step back recently in losses to the Cowboys and the Seahawks at home but still have a shot at the playoffs contingent upon a win in this game. That scenario actually sets the Redskins up in a 91-57-4 contrarian situation that plays on teams that are out of the playoffs when facing a team that needs a win to stay in the race. Washington also qualifies in a 54-21-1 situation that plays on late season home dogs while the Eagles qualify in a negative 21-51 situation that plays against big favorites with below average defenses. My model predicts just a 1.3 point Eagles win in this one and with good line value and situations lining up, I’ll take the Redskins +7.5 for 3-stars down to +7 and for 2-stars at down to +6.
***Minnesota (+7 -125) 20 MIAMI 17

Sun Dec-21-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 107 Over/Under 42.5

The Vikings have been playing well recently (won 7 of the last 8 ATS) as the game has slowed down for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater while their defense has consistently improved, allowing an average of just 19 points per game in their last nine. On the other side, the Dolphins have imploded down the stretch in two pivotal games against the Ravens and the Patriots the past two weeks and are on the outside looking in at the playoffs. With a win in this game needed for a shot at the postseason, Miami qualifies on the wrong side of a 91-57-4 contrarian situation that plays against teams in this spot. Minnesota also qualifies in another late season 143-93-9 situation as well as a very good 80-28-2 trend while the Dolphins qualify in a negative 199-318-17 statistical match-up indicator. With strong technical support stemming from multiple and varied situations, this is an automatic play for me. I’ll take the Vikings +7 (-125) for 3-stars down to +6 and for 2-stars at down to +4.5.
**NY JETS (+10.5) 22 New England 25

Sun Dec-21-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 116 Over/Under 47.5

Fittingly, this is likely the final home game in the Rex Ryan era and as it happens, it’s against the Jets most hated rival, the Patriots. As a coach that the team loves and respects, this is no doubt a game that the Jets will be bringing all they have in an effort to send Rex out in style. From a match-up perspective, New York should be able to grind out yards (averaging 146 rushing yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 110 yards at 4.3 ypr) against a Patriots rush defense that has been about average defending the run. In their previous game earlier this season, the Jets gave the Patriots all that they could handle in a close 25-27 loss as New York won the yardage battle 423-323, including dominating the Pats on the ground with a 218 at 5.1 ypr to 63 at 4.2 ypr advantage. The Jets will follow a similar plan this game I’m sure as last time they also controlled the clock with a 40:54 – 19:06 advantage, effectively keeping Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field. With a clear rushing advantage, New York qualifies in a 281-179-14 statistical match up situation as well as a 500-416-16 turnover based trend. This is too many points to pass up in a tough divisional game and as a result I’ll take the Jets +10.5 for 2-Stars down to +10.

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Randall the Handle's Week 16 NFL picks:

BEST BETS

Chiefs (8-6) at Steelers (9-5)

• LINE: PITTSBURGH by 3
• The Chiefs are getting far too much respect here as their pop-gun offence is being asked to keep up with the league’s No. 1 offence, with the Steelers averaging a whopping 424.9 yards per game. Pittsburgh has registered 101 points in its past three games, due largely in part to a healthy offensive line getting back on the field. That O-Line has helped RB Le’Veon Bell become a star runner and with the big guys leading up front, Bell should be up for a big day against K.C.’s 28th-ranked run defence. As for the passing game, Pittsburgh WR Antonio Brown has more yards, receptions and touchdown catches than all seven of Kansas City’s wideouts. While Pittsburgh’s play is known to be erratic, it certainly plays its best football against winning teams. Kansas City qualifies, but it is more fluff than stuff, and had dropped three straight before toppling the 2-12 Raiders last week. Steelers get the lead and it’s nighty-night Chiefs.
• TAKING: STEELERS -3

Giants (5-9) at Rams (6-8)

• LINE: ST. LOUIS by 5
• Ten days ago, we couldn’t understand how the Rams could be giving six points to the league-leading Cardinals when two weeks prior, they were giving away the same six points to the bottom-dwelling Raiders. Now the Giants come calling and that’s the kind of team the Rams can give less than a touchdown to. St. Louis’ defence has become a premier unit in this league. The Rams lost last week, but gave up only 12 points on four field goals. St. Louis had shut out its two previous opponents, making it just 12 points surrendered in the past three weeks. The Giants have rookie of the year Odell Beckham Jr. — after that, they have next to nothing. The G-Men have only won road games at Washington and recently at Tennessee. They lost in Jacksonville three weeks ago and this is their third road game in four weeks. The Rams aren’t overly proficient offensively, but they won’t need to be here when shutting down this unintimidating visitor.
• TAKING: RAMS –5

Seahawks (10-4) at Cardinals (11-3)

• LINE: SEATTLE by 8
• The Cardinals keep paying out like a broken ATM machine. As long as oddsmakers continue undervaluing this club, we’ll keep scooping up the cash. Look at the price in this one. Arizona taking better than a touchdown on its own field? The same field it hasn’t lost on this season? It is understood that the Cardinals are starting a third-string quarterback and that Ryan Lindley will face Seattle’s staunch defence. That’s okay. We’ve got a whole bunch of points in our pocket. It’s not like the Seahawks have been lighting up the scoreboard, exceeding 20 points only once in their past five games. And Arizona’s defence is no slouch. This is the final Sunday-night game of the season with the NFC West likely on the line. U of Phoenix Stadium will be amped up and Seattle giving away this many points is almost as illogical as Arizona receiving this many. No matter what the outcome, the Cards deserve our endorsement.
• TAKING: CARDINALS +8

THE REST
Eagles (9-5) at Redskins (3-11)

• LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 8
• Spoilers can play a role in these final two weeks, but the Redskins don’t figure to do so. This Washington defence is one of the more incapable units in the NFL and they’ll be facing an Eagles team that is looking to unleash on someone after consecutive setbacks against quality clubs. Chip Kelly’s group racked up 37 points with 400 yards of offence when these two met earlier and the Redskins’ defence has regressed since then. The ’Skins have just two home wins this year and those were against Jacksonville and Tennessee, with the lone cover in six tries occurring against the lowly Jaguars. The Eagles must win out to get to the playoffs and this opponent should aid that objective.
• TAKING: EAGLES -8

49ers (7-7) at Chargers (8-6)

• LINE: SAN FRANCISCO by 1
• Things have gone from bad to worse with the disjointed, dysfunctional 49ers as injuries continue to pile up, the team releasing troubled DT Ray McDonald and Jim Harbaugh parading the sidelines with airplane tickets sticking out of his unstylish pants. There’s little to believe that San Fran gets off the mat here as the team cannot find the end zone. The Niners have scored just 79 combined points this season in the second half of their games, a paltry average of 5.6 per game after halftime. The Chargers are in a bit of a rut themselves, but just needing a win in the pursuit of a playoff spot is the more sensible way to think here.
• TAKING: CHARGERS +1

Vikings (6-8) at Dolphins (7-7)

• LINE: MIAMI by 6½
• Seems the Dolphins have run out of gas after a promising start, but don’t expect them to roll over and play dead in this one. Firstly, the Fish have a very slim chance of making the post-season and, with an early game, they have to play their hand that way. Secondly, the Vikings are more their speed after a difficult stretch that saw the Fins playing Denver, Baltimore and New England over the past month. Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater has shown some growth, but is still prone to rookie mistakes, ones that the Miami defence can exploit. Miami players may rally here to help keep coach’s job.
• TAKING: DOLPHINS -6½

Packers (10-4) at Buccaneers (2-12)

• LINE: GREEN BAY by 10½
• If only it was as easy as picking the one team that needs the game more. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. Eliminated teams covet the spoiler’s role in hopes of ending the season on a good note (and, more importantly, retaining jobs). Of course, there is a huge disparity in talent levels for this one, but Green Bay giving away double-digit road points is not a sound investment. The Packers have a losing road record (3-4) and they’ve been outscored by 34 points on the season away from Lambeau. Tampa’s defence has quietly been a strong unit during the second half of disappointing season.
• TAKING: BUCCANEERS +10½

Lions (10-4) at Bears (5-9)

• LINE: DETROIT by 9
• Jay Cutler has been benched, maybe for good in Chicago, and Jimmy Clausen will take over quarterback duties. Still, we couldn’t give away these points with a visiting Detroit club even if it were Santa Clausen pivoting the home club. With a hobbled Reggie Bush, the Lions’ offence is not nearly as effective, relying solely on its passing game. Even against this useless Bears defence, that’s a tough way to go. This contest is a classic overreaction to what folks have recently witnessed, as Chicago was listless on Monday night on national television. The result is an inflated price, crossing over some key numbers, and providing value with the host Bears.
• TAKING: BEARS +9

Falcons (5-9) at Saints (6-8)

• LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 6
• What more can be said about this porous division? Even so, either team wins out and it takes the division. With the nonsense-palooza NFC South this year, it would only be fitting that this one comes down to a zany finish and we expect the Falcons to be there every step of the way. Despite losing the season opener to these Saints, Atlanta threw for 445 yards in a 37-34 shootout. Let’s not forget that New Orleans had lost four of five before facing the dysfunctional Bears on Monday night. Once indestructible at home, the Saints have dropped four straight here. Generous points being offered in this one.
• TAKING: FALCONS +6

Patriots (11-3) at Jets (3-11)

• LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 10
• Two more weeks until they blow up the Jets. This will just be one more stick of dynamite added because the Patriots were caught off-guard before holding off the Jets 27-25 when these two met in mid-October. New England will be more alert this time. That first meeting was on four days’ rest and the Pats had just lost Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley. They’ve adapted since. The Jets have managed to hold their own with this hated rival, but this New York group is weaker than previous clubs and with Geno Smith’s limited talent and underwhelming roster, a streaking New England team should lay waste its pesky opponent.
• TAKING: PATRIOTS –10

Ravens (9-5) at Texans (7-7)

• LINE: BALTIMORE by 5½
• While the Ravens have been able to contain the run since losing key DL Haloti Ngata, facing Houston’s Arian Foster figures to be more of a challenge than anyone the Dolphins or Jaguars employ. The Texans are sure to run frequently as they are another club down to a third-string quarterback after Ryan Fitzpatrick was lost for the season last week. On the flip side, Justin Forsett has been running big time since taking over in Baltimore, but he’ll have to contend with the spectacular skills of J.J. Watt, and that’s never an easy assignment. The Texans are motivated to perform well against ex-coach Gary Kubiak, now OC for Ravens.
• TAKING: TEXANS +5½

Bills (8-6) at Raiders (2-12)

• LINE: BUFFALO by 5½
• After Buffalo’s defence fared very well against Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in consecutive weeks, it would not be a surprise to see the Bills unintentionally ease up here against a perceived doormat. While the Raiders have a lot of work to do, they’ve been competitive on this field recently, knocking off both the Chiefs and 49ers. The Bills are still holding on to some flickering playoff hopes, but asking them to travel to the west coast and give away points is a tall order for an offence that has struggled to find the end zone. QB Kyle Orton has just two touchdowns compared to five interceptions in past three games.
• TAKING: RAIDERS +5½

Colts (10-4) at Cowboys (10-4)

• LINE: DALLAS by 3
• The Colts will likely be exposed once again as this mediocre team has had the benefit of a very soft schedule. Indy has faced two winning teams during its past seven games and the results were embarrassing (a 51-34 loss to the Steelers and a 42-20 loss to the Patriots). The Cowboys have the scoring abilities of both of those teams and, with the Colts away from their cozy dome, this line seems exceedingly cheap. Despite Dallas’ good record, they cannot afford a loss here as other NFC clubs are in a good position to overtake the ’Boys should they slip up. We doubt that happens.
• TAKING: COWBOYS -3

Broncos (11-3) at Bengals (9-4-1)

• LINE: DENVER by 3½
• The heat is on again for the Bengals as they try to shake the bugaboo of playing well during prime-time games. It is not without risk as the Andy Dalton era has seen the Bengals go 2-9 when the lights go up. Still, Cincy can be tough on this field, having won 13 of its past 16 played here. Cincinnati is going to have to control the pace in this one and, with its crafty running game, currently sixth-best in the league, the Bengals are capable of doing so. Denver’s offence can never be ignored, but perhaps has eased the demand on Peyton Manning as the playoffs loom. The Broncos are scoring in the low 20s in their past two games.
• TAKING: BENGALS +3½

Browns (7-7) at Panthers (5-8-1)

• LINE: CAROLINA by 3½
• Cam Newton returns for Carolina and he’ll be up against another Heisman Award winner as Johnny Manziel will take the field for just his second start. Anyone who watched Johnny Football play last week would be reluctant to wager counterfeit money on Cleveland’s newest quarterback. Based on that, this line has a funny stench to it as the Panthers have won two straight and are fighting for a playoff berth while the Browns are playing out the string. However, Carolina has given away points just once in its past nine games and failed to cover last week when doing so against the meagre Bucs. We prefer the AFC North team taking any points to an NFC South squad offering them.
• TAKING: BROWNS +3½

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Strike Point Sports
NFL
Minnesota +7 6*
Indy +3 3*

Oakland +6 2*

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VSI

NFL
Pitt. -3 6*
Ariz. 8 3*

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Jason Sharp

NFL
Tenn.+4 3*
Carolina -3 5*
Oakland +6 3*
Cincinnati +3 3*

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Indian Cowboy

NFL
Chicago +9 3*
Under 55- Indy/Dallas 3*
Seattle -7 7*

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Mike Davis

NFL
Green Bay -10 7*
Over 46- KC/Pitt 4*
Denver -3 6*

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Robert Ferringo

NFL
over 39 Tenn/Jack 1*
Phil. -7 1*
Green Bay -11 1*
Detroit -8 1*
NO -6 1*
New Eng -10 1*
Pitt -3 1*
Carolina -3 2*
Houston +5 1*
Seattle-7 1*
Over 41 SD/SF 2*
Over 50- Phil/Wash 1*
Under 47 KC/Pitt 1*

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Greg Shaker

Triple Dime

NYG/STL UNDER 43.5

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Doc Sports



5 Unit Play. #117 Take Kansas City Chiefs +3 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1 pm CBS)

TOP NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

This is an elimination game as both teams are vying for the playoffs in the AFC. Pittsburgh is in much better shape to make the playoffs, but this team has not handled prosperity well this season. Kansas City is solid on both sides of the football, and the same cannot be said for Pittsburgh. Their defense ranks in the bottom half of the league despite playing some of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Kansas City has been a great road team under Andy Reid, covering the spread in 11 of 15 road games the last two years. Big Ben will have his moments in this game, but Kansas City will pull it out by a field goal.


4 Unit Play. #116 Take New York Jets +10.5 over New England Patriots (Sunday 1 pm CBS)

The Jets and Coach Rex Ryan always seem to get up for playing the Patriots, and this will certainly be the last hurrah for Ryan, who will be fired later this month. The Jets nearly beat the Patriots at Foxboro earlier this season, losing by just 2 points. Geno Smith is not any good, but expect a very conservative gameplan to allow him to succeed and keep this deficit under single digits. Nothing bad can really be said about the way New England is playing at the moment, but I just do not see a blowout victory. New England is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The Jets are 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games played in December.


4 Unit Play. #130 Take Arizona Cardinals +8 over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC)

The Cardinals continue to get no respect from anybody, and that will just serve as motivation in this game. They have the best record in the NFL yet enter this game as over a touchdown underdog despite the game being played in Glendale. Arizona still has a rock-solid defense, and Seattle is not an offensive juggernaut. Seattle scored just 19 points when these teams met in the first meeting, and I do not believe they will be able to put many more points up than that in this game. Expect Arizona to play much better on offense despite their quarterback situation, as one must remember that Larry Fitzgerald did not play in that first meeting. Nobody gave Arizona a chance last week against St. Louis, and they won that game straight-up, and it would not surprise me if the same thing happens in this night game. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Seattle is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played during Week 16.

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Sports Betting Professor

NFL
1 PM
117. Kansas City Chiefs +3*

Rest of Games
110. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12
120. Carolina Panthers -4

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SPORTS LAB (NFL)

Dallas Cowboys