11-15-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

fat jack



THERE ARE 3 FOOTBALL SELECTIONS ON SUNDAY
#251 detroit UNDER 48
#261 MIAMI +6.5
#266 baltimore OVER 48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cousin Sal

was not feeling well after his bad beat with the Steelers in Week 9.

Sal Iacono is a writer for "Jimmy Kimmel Live" and better known among sports fans as "Cousin Sal" on Bill Simmons' podcasts. He's also making a name for himself as ESPN's NFL gambling expert.

Iacono didn't lose a pick on his weekly "SportsCenter" segment with Neil Everett during the final six weeks of the 2014 regular season and went 19-2-3 over the last eight weeks.

After a pretty good start to the 2015 season, he suddenly caught fire again. Despite going 1-2 last week, Cuz is still 14-7 over the last six weeks, including 7-2 in the last three weeks. He is also 6-3 this season on his "Best Bet."

So let's take a look at who Cousin Sal likes this week along with his thoughts on each pick. As usual, assume plenty of goofiness and sarcasm that is difficult to transcribe (via ESPN):

Pick 1:

Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 (@ Baltimore Ravens) — "This Jags team, they have a little fight in them. This is not your father's Jaguars. This is actually Shanna and Tony Khan's father's Jaguars. [To Everett] Shahid Khan, remember he bought it a few years ago? I was on Wikipedia all night looking that up. Look, Allen Robinson, with over 700 yards receiving, versus the 32nd-ranked pass defense in the Ravens. That's going to be enough to keep it close. Take the Fighting Jaguars over the Ravens. "

Pick 2:

His second pick is his 2-team teaser — must pick both games correctly, but you get a more favorable point-spread in each game. Cousin Sal was 7-1-1 on teasers over the final nine weeks of the 2014 season.

Green Bay Packers -6 (vs. Detroit Lions) and Denver Broncos PICK (vs. Kansas City Chiefs) — "Let's start with Green Bay. Take six off the [-12] spread. It's minus-6 over Detroit. They have lost like 24 straight at Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers lights up that 30th-ranked defense. And then Denver wins eight in a row over Kansas City. That's the pick 'em, when you play the teaser, over the Chiefs. That defense allows 3.5 yards per carry. Green Bay-Denver, easy tease."

Pick 3:

This is Sal's "Best Bet." He was 12-3-1 with this pick in 2014 and 6-2 this season:

Arizona Cardinals +3 (@ Seattle Seahawks) — "Neil, I've known you, what, 59, 60 weeks now? Have I ever given you two consecutive losing Best Bets in the regular season? I haven't. I'm not about to do it. I don't want to jeopardize our friendship! That's why we are taking Arizona plus-3 at Seattle. Yes, I know, the 12th Man. But is the 12th Man going to be able to come down from the stands and play offensive line? I don't think they allow that. I don't think they would. Seattle has given up 31 sacks. On the other side of the ball, Carson Palmer, 20 touchdown passes. Listen to this stat. This is my favorite. Arizona, 11-0 against the spread when they are an underdog of three points or less. Bang! We are taking Arizona as our best bet."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Harris CFL Sunday

4 Unit Play. Take #292 Hamilton Tiger-Cats -2.5 over Toronto Argonauts (1:05 PM, Sunday, November 15)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will look for a win to advance to the Eastern Division Finals against the surprising Ottawa Redblacks when they take on the Toronto Argonauts at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton, Ontario on Sunday afternoon. Hamilton has posted an excellent 7-3 ATS record in their last ten games where they are coming off an ATS loss and they have gone a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the number in their three games versus Toronto this season. They have outscored Toronto by a combined score of 111-57 and they are by far the much better team on paper in this one. Toronto has also struggled in the spot they are in here on Sunday as they have gone just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team from the East Division and they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games where they faced a team with a winning record. Throw in the fact that Hamilton has gone 8-2 ATS in their last ten head to head meetings with Toronto an we'll lay the points with them at home on Sunday to get the win and advance to the Eastern Division Finals in Ottawa on 11/22.

3 Unit Play. Take # 293/294 BC Lions vs. Calgary Stampeders Over 49.5 (4:35 PM, Sunday, November 15)

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Sunday afternoon in the Western Division Semi-Finals when the BC Lions travel to take on the Calgary Stampeders at McMahon Stadium in Calgary. The Lions have posted a 7-3 record to the over in their last ten games following an ATS loss and they have gone a perfect 5-0 to the over in their last five playoff road games. Calgary has been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Sunday as they have gone 5-2 to the over in their last seven playoff games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have posted a 5-1 record to the over in their last six games in Calgary and that's where we'll have our play in a game where we expect both teams to move the ball and out points on the board Sunday in Alberta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI
CFL PLAYOFFS SEMI-FINALS

4 Unit Play. #294 Calgary -9 over B.C. Lions (4:35p.m., Sunday, November 15)
Calgary has also won three straight post-season contests against B.C. and Sunday afternoon I see this trend continuing with an easy Calgary W. Calgary has won 3-straight games coming into these playoffs and all 3 wins were by double-digits. Last week Calgary beat B.C. in B.C. 28-7 and Calgary has won 4-straight meetings against B.C. Calgary defense has been the bright spot all season long allowing a league-low 16.1ppg and defense again win this game. The B.C. Lions are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November and the Calgary Stampeders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games

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Greg shaker

3* total of month

Arizona / seattle under 45

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King creole

3* best bet

Detroit / green bay over 48.5

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Stephen nover

3* Detroit / green bay over47.5

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500wager

Kansas City Chiefs +6.5

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Gold Medal Club NFL Selections


256 Tennessee
260 Washington
261 Miami
263 Cleveland
268 Oakland

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Mike Missanelli
Packers
Ravens

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Major K Sports

11/15/15 2:45pm International Soccer 121 Norway (EURO-Qual) pk -113* vs Hungary (EURO-Qual)

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks

System plays:
Carolina -4
Minnesota +3
Arizona +3
Other plays:
Miami +6
Cleveland +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALAN HARRIS

5 Unit Play. Take #252 Green Bay Packers -11.5 over Detroit Lions (1:00 PM, Sunday, November 15)
The Green Bay Packers will look to break their two game losing streak when they take on the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. The Pack has back to back losses to the Broncos and Panthers but we think they bounce back in a big way this week against a pretty poor Detroit Lions team. Despite their back to back losses, Green Bay has been pretty good in the spot they are in here on Sunday. They have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss and they have posted a 35-16-2 ATS record in their last 53 home games dating back to the 2008 season. The Lions, on the other hand, have really struggled in the situation we find them in here on Sunday as they have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have covered in just two of their last ten road games. Throw in the fact that the favorite has gone a perfect 6-0 in the last six head to head meetings between these two teams and we’ll lay the big number here with the Packers as our numbers have them winning in blow-out fashion over the Lions on Sunday afternoon.

4 Unit Play. Take #253/254 Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Over 43.5 (1:00 PM, Sunday, November 15)
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Sunday afternoon when the Dallas Cowboys travel to take on the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Cowboys have posted a 5-1 record to the over in their last six games where they faced a team with a losing record at home and they have gone over the posted total in eight of their last eleven road games overall. The Bucs have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Sunday afternoon as they have gone over the posted total in four of their last five games overall and they are a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last four games played at home. Throw in the fact that these two teams have played to a combined 10-1 record to the over in their last eleven Week 10 games and that’s where we’ll have our play as we see a ton of points being scored by two teams that can move the ball but can’t really stop anyone when their defense is out on the field.

3 Unit Play. Take #257/258 Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis Rams – Under 42.5 (1:00 PM, Sunday, November 15)
Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet on Sunday afternoon when the Chicago Bears travel to take on the Rams at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO. The Bears have posted a 5-1 record to the under in their last six games overall and they have gone under the posted total in six of their last eight Week 10 games dating back to the 2006 season. The Rams have been an under team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone 4-1 to the under in their last five games where they faced a team from the NFL and they have stayed under the total in four of their last five games where they faced a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that these two teams have posted a 7-3 record to the under in their last ten head to head meetings and that’s where we’ll have our play in a game that we see both teams having issues putting points on the board Sunday in St. Louis.

3 Unit Play. Take #271/272 New England Patriots vs. New York Giants – Over 54.5 (4:25 PM, Sunday, November 15)
Two teams that have been putting a ton of points on the board this season will meet on Sunday afternoon when the New England Patriots hit the road to take on the New York Giants at Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. The Patriots have posted a 36-16 record to the over in their last 52 games following an ATS win and they have gone an excellent 13-6 to the over in their last 19 games played in the month of November. The Giants have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Sunday afternoon as they have gone over the posted total in five of their last seven games following an ATS win and they gone a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last four games played in the month of November dating back to last season. Throw in the fact that the Pats have gone a lights out 35-17 to the over in their last 52 games where they faced a team with a winning record and that’s where we’ll have our play in a game that we have turning into an old fashioned shoot-out Sunday in North Jersey.

6 Unit Play. Take #273 Arizona Cardinals +3 over Seattle Seahawks (8:30 PM, Sunday, November 15, NBC)
The Arizona Cardinals will look to extend their winning streak to three games when they travel to take on the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. The Cardinals, who lead the NFC West with a 6-2 record, have been very good in the spot they are in here on Sunday night. They have posted a 17-6 ATS record in their last 23 games following a straight up win and they have gone an excellent 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the situation we find them in here on Sunday night as they have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus a team from the NFC and they seem to have lost a bit of that 12th Man advantage as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals have gone 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games dating back to the 2013 season and we’ll take the FG with them on the road in a game that our numbers have them winning outright over Seattle on Sunday night

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VERNON CROY

6-Unit Play. Take #251 Detroit +11.5 over Green Bay (Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET)
Take the Detroit ATS as my 6-Unit NFL Bookie Buster of the Month for Sunday afternoon. This pick falls into one of my elite NFL systems and we are getting exceptional line value here, with a Packers team that should be favored by no more than 6.5 points. The Lions have shook up their personnel and put everyone else on notice, so you can expect a complete team effort from them Sunday. We had the Packers last week in a losing cause against a good Panthers team, and a few things stood out in that game, that leads me to believe Detroit can win in Green Bay Sunday. The Lions have lost 24 straight in Green Bay but there has not been a better chance for them to win here Sunday. The Packers rank 24th in passing yards this season while the Lions rank 11th in the NFL and the Lions receiving core is finally 100% healthy. Stafford has plenty of weapons to get the job done against a Packers defense that gave up 297 passing yards to a Panthers team ranked almost dead last (29th) in passing yards last week. The Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after putting up less than 15 points in their previous game and the Packers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after giving up more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. Calvin Johnson has gone off against this Packers secondary in the past with 14TD’s against them including 6 games with over 100+ yards over 14 career games. Defensively the Lions have DE Ezekiel Ansah who ranks 1st in the NFC with 7 sacks, and he has 5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery over his last 5 games, and he will be able to pressure Rodgers all day long. Play the Lions ATS with extreme confidence as they keep this game close and possibly upset the Packers Sunday

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JASON SHARPE

***NFL GAME OF THE MONTH***
6 Unit Play Take #266 Baltimore -5.5 over Jacksonville (1:00pm est):
I’ve been waiting patiently to play on Baltimore as the Ravens are nowhere near as bad as what people think. Baltimore had the unusual task of having to go out west TWICE already this season and play back to back games. Most teams in the NFL don’t have to do this one time a year but Baltimore dealt with it two times before the half way point of this year. The Ravens have also lost all six of their games by 8 points or less and overall a combined 30 points. They very easily could have won a few more of those games and if they did then this line would be a much higher than it sits right now. The Ravens also are coming off a much needed bye week which means two weeks for head coach John Harbaugh to prepare for this contest and Harbaugh is 6-1 against the spread coming off a bye.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are getting lots of credit for a hard fought loss last week to the New York Jets. It was an odd game as the Jets looked to be in total control of that contest until a couple of key injuries opened the door for the Jaguars to get back into the game. Jacksonville did a lot of their damage in the final quarter after the Jets lost one of their starting safeties and were without 3 of their top 4 secondary guys in the contest. Add this in with New York being without two of their top offensive lineman and playing with an injured starting quarterback and running back as well. Plus the Jags were in an ideal spot as they came in the fresh and rested team off their bye week and faced a New York team that had came back from playing on the west coast the previous week and who were off two hard fought games also.
The Ravens are sitting in a do or die situation in this game if they want any chance at the post-season. They’ve had to weeks to stew over their bad start and should be more than ready for this contest. I expect Harbaugh to have this team playing at it’s top level in this game. Take Baltimore minus the points here.

4 Unit Play Take #252 Green Bay -11.5 over Detroit (1:00pm est):
The Detroit Lions have waved the white flag on their season as they fired their general manager and team president last week. There wasn’t a whole lot of fight in this team before the firings and it’s going to be difficult to expect much more from this team going forward. They couldn’t be facing a worse opponent than the Green Bay Packers, a team that has owned the Lions over the years.
Good NFL teams coming off back to back road losses in this NFL like Green Bay does here in this spot are great bet-on teams when they return home. Were getting a shot to buy Green Bay low here based off losing their last two games to two of the top teams in the league. The Packers own one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and it’s even bigger it seems when they face the Lions as they have beat them at home 24 straight times coming into this one.
Take Green Bay minus the points in this one