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Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay +105
The Rays came through for me last night w/ a 6-5 win over the Jays. That series opener was a big revenge spot for the home team as not only did they lose three of four to their division rival last week, but one of those matchups (finale) featured the identical pitching matchup of Archer vs. Rowley. As expected, Archer pitched well as he allowed just three runs (two unearned) and four hits in six innings. Though, on paper, the pitching matchup does NOT appear to be in their favor tonight, I still prefer the Rays here.
As I've been writing about recently, the chase for the AL's second Wild Card spot remains very wide open. Eight teams are now separated by six games. But it is Toronto at the "back of the pack" and their ugly -82 YTD run differential seems to confirm that they are indeed the "worst of the lot." It appears as if some "sharper dollars" have come in on the Rays in the early morning, which mirrors up w/ my handicapping of the matchup. Toronto has lost four straight and tends to give up a lot of runs on the road (5.1 per game). Yes, they have Marcus Stroman starting tonight - and he did beat the Rays last week - but the Rays offense is better now w/ Kevin Kiermaier back in the lineup.
Tampa Bay's Austin Pruitt has won just one of his five starts since his formal integration into the starting rotation, which occurred after the All-Star Break. But - save for his last start, he's generally pitched well. This will be Toronto's 1st time seeing him. Note Pruitt had been a pretty significant dog on the ML in each of his first five starts, which included matchups against the likes of Sale, Kluber and Keuchel! No wonder he has a losing team start record. But here he's facing probably his weakest opponent to date. As I mentioned yday, the Rays have the edge in the bullpen as well. He was shaky last night, but closer Alex Colome leads all of MLB w/ 37 saves.
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay +105
The Rays came through for me last night w/ a 6-5 win over the Jays. That series opener was a big revenge spot for the home team as not only did they lose three of four to their division rival last week, but one of those matchups (finale) featured the identical pitching matchup of Archer vs. Rowley. As expected, Archer pitched well as he allowed just three runs (two unearned) and four hits in six innings. Though, on paper, the pitching matchup does NOT appear to be in their favor tonight, I still prefer the Rays here.
As I've been writing about recently, the chase for the AL's second Wild Card spot remains very wide open. Eight teams are now separated by six games. But it is Toronto at the "back of the pack" and their ugly -82 YTD run differential seems to confirm that they are indeed the "worst of the lot." It appears as if some "sharper dollars" have come in on the Rays in the early morning, which mirrors up w/ my handicapping of the matchup. Toronto has lost four straight and tends to give up a lot of runs on the road (5.1 per game). Yes, they have Marcus Stroman starting tonight - and he did beat the Rays last week - but the Rays offense is better now w/ Kevin Kiermaier back in the lineup.
Tampa Bay's Austin Pruitt has won just one of his five starts since his formal integration into the starting rotation, which occurred after the All-Star Break. But - save for his last start, he's generally pitched well. This will be Toronto's 1st time seeing him. Note Pruitt had been a pretty significant dog on the ML in each of his first five starts, which included matchups against the likes of Sale, Kluber and Keuchel! No wonder he has a losing team start record. But here he's facing probably his weakest opponent to date. As I mentioned yday, the Rays have the edge in the bullpen as well. He was shaky last night, but closer Alex Colome leads all of MLB w/ 37 saves.
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