Saturday 9-9-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Raphael Esparza

Florida Atlantic / Wisconsin Over 58.5

Wisconsin struggled at first in their first game against Utah State but then the second half started and Wisconsin took over and blew out the Aggies 59-10. The total of that game was 52, and the Badgers covered that total themselves. Saturday afternoon I see the Badgers doing it again. Florida Atlantic struggled against Navy on Saturday, and the Midshipmen scored 42 points against the FAU defense, and if Navy scored 42 points what will the Badgers do at home on Saturday. Bet this total over before this number no longer exists because this total will close around 60. In FAU's last 5 road games 4 of them have gone over the total and the Badgers last 6 games 5 of them have gone over.

[New York Knight]

Robert Ferringo

Buffalo +16.5

I just think that this is too many points. Buffalo actually beat Army last year, winning 23-20 in overtime as a 13-point underdog. In fact, two of the last three meetings have gone to OT, and in the last three meetings the average differential is less than five points. Army just isn't a strong favorite and they aren't known for blowing many teams' doors off with their option attack. Army is coming off a 64-6 blowout of FCS Fordham, and they have their biggest nonconference game next week when they go to Ohio State. In between is this game as more than a two-touchdown favorite. The Black Knights are 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points against FCS competition over the last three seasons and 2-6 ATS in that role against all competition. Army is just 6-14 ATS against MAC teams, and this Buffalo team, coming off just a 10-point loss at Minnesota, could be feisty.

[New York Knight]

MMA OddsBreaker

Parlay Adriano Martins (-440) and Alex White (-190)

I think Martins holds the advantages everywhere in his bout against Kajan Johnson. He certainly has the grappling edge, and he may be at a technical striking disadvantage, but I give him the power advantage on the feet, and considering Johnson has had his jaw broken multiple times, I think there is a decent chance he ends the fight standing. The Brazilian is no stranger to recording highlight reel knockouts and another one could be added to said reel this weekend. I think he is a bad stylistic matchup for Johnson, though I would not be surprised to see Johnson outpoint him and edge out a decision, if Martins is not very active on the feet. Both 155-pounders are coming off layoff, so inactivity could be a concern for the both of them. In the other bout, I am taking White to defeat Canada’s own Mitch Clarke. It’s a do or die fight for Clarke, and I would not be him surprised to see him upset White, as I do think he has the grappling advantage in this contest. That said, I expect this fight to play out on the feet, where I believe White holds the cards. I see White finding success in keeping this fight standing and oustriking Clarke for the majority of three rounds to pick up a unanimous decision win on the judges’ scorecards, potentially securing a T/KO stoppage along the way. I think this is a good stylistic matchup for White to pick up his first win in the UFC’s lightweight division.

[New York Knight]

Cappers Club

Nebraska +14

This play just missed out on our premium card. The Nebraska Cornuskers and the Oregon Ducks face off on Saturday, and with such a large spread the Cornhuskers ATS has a lot of value.

The Cornhuskers struggled against the Arkansas Red Wolves but this team is young and those type of struggles would be expected, and the Red Wolves are not a slouch of a team.

I think the defense will have a week to figure out their kinks, and they will be a lot better in this game.

The offense for the Cornhuskers is not an issue at all, and I think they will have no problem keeping up with however high the Ducks run up the score.

Some trends to note. Cornhuskers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Ducks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

[New York Knight]

Jack Jones

Tulane +13½

Willie Fritz put Georgia Southern on the map by taking them to the Sun Belt title in 2014 and their first ever bowl win in 2015. He took the job at Tulane knowing it would be a rebuilding process, and Year 1 was a struggle as the Green Wave went just 4-8. Fritz brought his spread option offense to Tulane in '16 but did not have the right personnel to run it. Now he does.

Fritz welcomes back 16 starters this season. He recruited his type of of QB to run the spread option in Jonathan Banks, who is a perfect fit. The dress rehearsal went well last week in a 43-14 win over Gramblin as 22-point favorites, covering the spread by 7 points. They jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead before coasting to the finish. Banks went 10-of-15 passing for 185 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 69 yards and a score on 16 carries.

Navy is a team that is starting to get a lot of love from the betting public after going 21-7 SU & 19-9 ATS over the past two-plus seasons combined. The Midshipmen looked good in their 42-19 win at Florida Atlantic as 8.5-point favorites last week, but keep in mind that was Lane Kiffin's first game and he is implementing new schemes and a ton of new personnel with all of his recruits. It wasn't the type of team Kiffin would have preferred to open against, someone like Navy that will hit you in the mouth.

But Tulane's style is similar to Navy's. The Green Wave run that spread option, while the Midshipmen run the triple option. And these teams have faced each other the last two years, so the familiarity is there. Tulane held its own in a 14-21 home loss 7-point dogs last year. They held the Midshipmen to just 359 total yards. They also covered as 25.5-point dogs in a 14-31 road loss in 2015, actually outgaining Navy by 95 yards in that contest.

Fritz is 10-2 ATS in the month of September in all games he has coached. Tulane is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games following a win by 21 points or more. Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TULANE) - off a home win by 17 points or more against opponent off a double digit road win are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

[New York Knight]

DAVE COKIN

UTAH -1.5

No surprise whatsoever to see what’s happening with the betting line in this year’s edition of the Holy War. Utah was nothing spectacular last week in a win over North Dakota. But that’s a whole lot better than what was pretty much a disastrous showing on national TV by BYU in a very ugly loss at LSU.

In fairness to the Cougars, they were in over their heads against LSU. The Bayou Bengals are an elite program with a fast and furious defense. But still, six first downs, less than 100 yards of total offense and never even crossing midfield for the full 60 minutes has to be an indictment of sorts on the BYU offense.

I don’t expect BYU to get completely shut down again this week, but the attack simply hasn’t looked good at all to start the season. It’s not like the Cougars lit up the scoreboard in a somewhat lethargic win over Portland State.

Utah is a bit of an unknown quantity for me to start the season. Tyler Huntley is far from battle tested at QB. No more Joe Williams to run the ball. An offensive line that lost some real quality and has yet to be seriously challenged. The defense also lost some key contributors. I don’t think this will be one of Kyle Whittingham’s best Utah teams.

I’m also a little leery of public perception based on the last thing they saw, and that last thing was a grotesque beatdown being absorbed by BYU.

But when push comes to shove, it’s kind of all Utah here. The Utes have won five straight in the series. Whittingham rates an in game edge over Sitaki, at least in terms of my opinion regarding the two head coaches. The early season adjusted stats favor the road team. My game grades favor Utah as well.

There was an opportunity to grab a point or two with Utah, but I passed at that point in time. So I’m clearly not wild about taking the Utes at what is now a beat up line as they’ve moved to the small chalk role. But Utah is still the side I prefer in this rivalry clash.

[New York Knight]

RED DOG SPORTS

North Carolina +10

The Tar Heels are off a home loss to Cal. UNC was in control until a targeting penalty took out one of their top defensive players. Louisville is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after a hot start last year. They came from behind to beat Purdue last week in a game that was played in Indianapolis. Lamar Jackson is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and should lead the Cardinals to the win but I think UNC will stay within 10 points.

[New York Knight]

Dennis Macklin

Michigan -34

Cincinnati is in for a world of hurt if it plays today like it did in its opener vs. Austin Peay. The Bearcats had just 151 yards passing and barely 22:00 possession in a 26-14 win over the Govs in a game they were 42-point home chalk. One returning starter on defense ... no problem for the Wolverines who just fly to the football. Mich offense off to a slow start that included two pick sixes in a 33-17 domination of Florida. Two things we really like ... Wolves 7-1 ATS in L8 home openers. Cincinnati HC Luke Fickel is Ohio State through and through as a player, a HC (the one year before Urban), and long time staff member. Can't imagine for a second that sadistic Harbaugh will take his foot off the pedal for even one second here. Michigan 51-6.

[New York Knight]

Jeff Allen

Louisville -10

The North Carolina defense looked lost late against a rebuilding Cal outfit that most had relegated to the Pac-12 basement at the start of the year. Louisville a bit ambushed by a fired up and match improved Purdue team. Lamar Jackson is once again off to a fast start and we can expect a much more focused and prepared Louisville team to take care of business.

[New York Knight]

Alex Smart

Oregon -14

The Cornhuskers enter into this game barely getting by Arkansas state last week, and now have to deal with a strong Oregon side , that scored 77 points in their opener and now have revenge on board for 35-32 loss last year in this series. With the Huskers suffering from multiple injuries including their top three WRs , things don't look good for them this week. I expect Willie Taggarts Ducks to swoop down on the Cornhuskers and get a conclusive win and cover . It must be noted Taggart is 13-0 ATS L/13 off a win in the first half of the season.

OREGON is 27-12 ATS L/39 after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Oregon - top tier offense from last season - averaged 6.4 or more yards/play, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 36-10 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

[New York Knight]

Harry Bondi

NEW MEXICO STATE +8.5

Former Notre Dame head coach Bob Davie has done great things since taking over the Lobo program, except against in-state rival New Mexico State. The Aggies have covered three straight in his heated annual game, including a wild 32-31 victory last season. With nine starters back on defense and the addition of 7 JUCOS, the Aggies will be more than ready for New Mexico’s run-heavy attack.

[New York Knight]

Jesse Schule

Georgia +6½

The Bulldogs lost starting quarterback Jacob Eason early in their season opener versus Appalachian State. Freshman Jake Fromm stepped up and threw for 143 yards and a TD on 10-of-15 passing. Georgia was 8-5 overall last season, and three of their five losses came in games decided by three points or less. They will be getting a generous amount of points here on the road against unranked Notre Dame this week. The Irish only won four games last year, but they beat Temple by a whopping 33 points in their season opener. They did the bulk of their damage with the ground game, running for 422 yards and five TDs on 44 carries. Georgia's defense isn't going to allow the Irish to put up those kind of gaudy numbers, and I expect this to be a gritty defensive battle. The Irish have failed to cover in six of their last eight versus teams with a winning record, and five of their last seven no-conference games. The Bulldogs have covered in six of their last eight road games.

[New York Knight]

Doc's Sports

Oregon State -1

It is now or never for Oregon State and their Coach Gary Anderson. They have put forth two lackluster performances thus far in 2017 and they need to right the ship in a big way on Saturday night. Minnesota did not look impressive either against Buffalo and they have a new coaching staff and I feel they are a couple of years away from being serious contenders. This is a must win game for Oregon State as a loss here means that they might not win another game until November. Oregon State lost to a better Minnesota team in 2016 by just 7 points (+13 underdog) and they will win this game straight-up.

[New York Knight]

FantasySportsGametime

NCAA FOOTBALL

Saturday

1000* Play Boise State +10.5 over Washington State (NCAA)

500* Play Oklahoma +7.5 over Ohio State (NCAA)

500* Play Florida Atlantic +31.5 over Wisconsin (NCAA)

500* Play South Florida -17.5 over Connecticut (NCAA)

500* Play Iowa State +2.5 over Iowa (NCAA)

[New York Knight]

Drew Martin

USC -5.5

Key early season conference tilt in the PAC-12 with Stanford heading to USC. The Cardinal got the better of the Trojans last season, 27-10, in a similar conference opener setting. The results should reverse on Saturday as Stanford has the dubious task of coming in off of what I believe to be an unproductive bye week after opening the season with a 62-7 blowout win in Australia over weakling Rice. Last season, Stanford opened with a win over Kansas State, had a bye week, and they dispatched the Trojans in Palo Alto. While that appears similar situation-wise, there are some distinct differences. For one, Stanford never left campus. Their win over Kansas State was at home, followed by a bye, and then another home game vs. USC. And the Wildcats served as a "real" opponent, one that no doubt helped better prepare Stanford for its looming matchup against the Trojans. There was no resistance whatsoever in Week 1 as Rice grades out as one of the worst teams in college football. And there was obviously a lot of time spent traveling and adjusting to the unique environment.

Meanwhile, USC got a test and some against pesky Western Michigan. The Broncos may have lost head coach PJ Fleck but the core of the team remains and the Trojans were very complimentary of WMU's Big Ten-esque talent. In the end, USC pulled away 49-31 and while they failed to cover the pointspread, I feel as if the experience better serves this squad for Saturday rather than rolling up a weak Mountain West outfit by 40 points. I think the betting markets are discounting USC a tad here after its less-than-stellar performance. Combine that with the overreaction to Stanford's blow out and the false benefit of a bye week and less than a touchdown becomes an attractive price for the home side.