Saturday 9-9-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Otto Sports

Wisconsin -31.5

It was a nightmare matchup in Week 1 for Florida Atlantic as offensive-minded first-year head coach Lane Kiffin was tasked with game planning for Navy's option. The Owls managed to take a 10-7 lead midway through the second quarter but proceeded to be outscored 35-9 the rest of the way. The Midshipmen finished with 526 yards at 6.7 yards per clip. Now, FAU must figure out a way to stop an even more potent offense that can not only run the football but pass as well.

The Badgers struggled early on in Week 1 against Utah State and didn't score their first points until less than two minutes to go in the first half. Despite that, Wisconsin rolled up 59 points and and an ultra-balanced 234 yards on the ground and 244 yards through the air. While game planning for Navy is tricky, at least FAU could focus most of its efforts on stopping the run. The Owls' porous pass defense won't be able to hide on Saturday.

There is a difference between "exciting" and "successful" and while Kiffin remains one of the brighter offensive minds in the game, this season is going to have plenty of pitfalls. There will be chances to outscore the opposition in conference play but FAU simply isn't built to compete in Saturday's environment. Lay the points with confidence.

[New York Knight]

Andrew Lange

Pittsburgh at Penn State
Under 64

Last season, Pittsburgh was involved in exactly one "under" against FBS competition; a 31-24 bowl loss to Northwestern that had plenty of chances late to cash an "over" late. There were a number of reasons behind such a strong trend. For starters, the Panthers scored big both literally and figuratively with the hiring of offensive coordinator Matt Canada who is one of the brightest minds in the game. He took a below average offensive (82nd, 377.5 ypg) and helped produced one of the bigger spikes in production in the country (38th, 446.8 ypg). Pitt averaged more yards per play (6.71) than Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State and was one of only 11 teams to net more than 40 ppg. But that scoring output didn't necessarily equate to whom Pitt really was. Based on Pitt's total yardage, the offense "should" have averaged closer to 30 ppg but if you remember anything about the 2016 season you're well aware that craziness was the norm in Panther games. Non-offensive touchdowns, turnovers, defensive mishaps; pretty much every "pro offense" occurrence that could happen happened on a routine basis when Pitt played. The offense was no doubt good, and the defense, really bad, but with Canada (LSU), underrated starting quarterback Nathan Peterman (NFL), running back James Conner (NFL), and a big chunk of the offensive line gone, I expect Pitt games to average at many as 15 ppg less than last year's ridiculous 76.1 ppg. When caught a glimpse of much more "traditional" football in Week 1 as Pitt needed overtime to beat FCS Youngstown State, 28-21. Even with the extra frame, the Panthers gained only 348 yards on 4.5 yards per play.

The concern for this week is how does Pitt stop Penn State? The Panthers gave up a ton of big play/quick scores last season and the Nittany Lions are loaded with playmakers. Penn State could have easily scored 70+ in Week 1's 52-0 win over Akron and obviously won't hold back after losing at Pitt last season 42-39. But I look for PSU's defense to thrive in this matchup. Ravaged by injuries a season ago, the Nittany Lions are healthy and primed to be a top 25 unit. This total was sitting at 68/68.5 for much of the week and has steadily been played under the total. Still worth a bet at the current number of 64.

[New York Knight]

Mike Anthony

Michigan -34

Michigan QB, Wilton Speight, is still greatly disrespected, even with a solid arm. He has played well vs some great conference competition, racking up big wins vs the better ended teams in the league. Michigan has been really solid with their defense this season, and their ferocious line will do it yet again. Cincinnati has got to try and run the ball more, only 3.34 YPC in their last game. Cincinnati's Oline has to try and not get stuck standing around while their talented RB, Mike Boone, is trying to move the ball on the ground. Missing tackles has been another big problem for the LBs of Cincinnati, not good vs a strong running team like Michigan. Bearcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.

[New York Knight]

Freddy Wills

Fresno State +44

I look for Fresno State to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year after a 1-11 season. They were not as bad as their record showed as they had a lead in 6 games by 14 or a 4th quarter lead. This year they bring in a new head coach in Jeff Tedford and they have 10 returning starters on offense 6 on defense. Their strength on defense is their defensive line with 7 of their top 8 guys returning. Not to say Alabama will have any problem moving the ball in this one.

Alabama’s offense did not look great last week and their defense and special teams really bailed them out. I expect a huge hang over here and I expect Alabama to be going through the motions. Nick Saban is 3-7 ATS in week #2, and that’s typically because Alabama has to prepare and get up for a national game on a neutral site and when they play the following week it’s all about recovering. I think it’s also worth noting that they will want to really run this game out. They already lost 2 starting linebackers for the season and they just witnessed Florida State’s QB being lost for the season to end the game. I don’t see them messing around in this game.

Worth noting is the fact that Fresno had the #33 special teams unit last year and returns everyone. Alabama still has the edge, but Fresno should be able to get a field goal or two to help them cover this spread.

[New York Knight]

Larry Wallace

Missouri -2½

Going with the Missouri Tigers against South Carolina. The Tigers have fire power this year. They racked up 72 points last week and 815 total yards. Drew Lock passed for 521 yards and 7 touchdowns. Missouri will be more balanced this week and will need to control the clock. Crockett could make a case this year as one of the best running backs in the SEC.

[New York Knight]

DOUG UPSTONE
NCAA-F | Sep 09, 2017
Auburn vs. Clemson

UNDER 55½

Auburn and Clemson both played teams they could throttle and did last week. Now they collide and the offense will not come as easy. On Saturday, look for road teams like Auburn when the total is between 49.5 and 56, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. In the last five years the total is money-making 29-7 UNDER.

[New York Knight]

RAY MONOHAN

Illinois +7.5

The Fighting Illini get over a touchdown here on Saturday, at home, giving them some value here.

First off, it's extremely odd to see a power conference team be this much of an underdog in this case.
While Illinois did struggle in season opener, they still battled against and managed to overcome a late deficit to beat Ball State. The win was not flashy by any means, but the Illini still have their defense to lean on.

They'll get a WKU offense that isn't nearly as powerful as they've been in the past. This Illinois defense will look to Tre Watson and the rest of this linebacker crew to really cause havoc and force the Hilltoppers offense into some bad decisions.

Some trends to note. Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Hilltoppers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.
Given the Hilltoppers struggles early in the season and against the Big Ten, this is too high of a spread.
Back Illinois.

[New York Knight]

BOBBY WING

1 Unit Free Pick: Wake Forest vs Boston College under 45 -110

[New York Knight]

R&R Totals

FREE CFB Over-Under Saturday 9-9-17

UNDER 52 1/2 Western Kentucky/Illinois

[New York Knight]

MIKEY SPORTS

West Virginia -24

[New York Knight]

ASA


PLAY ON Iowa State +3 over Iowa, Saturday at 12 Noon ET

ISU has had this game circled for a full year. They were dominated in Iowa City last year to the tune of 42-3 a year ago. It was new head coach Matt Campbell’s 2nd game as the Iowa State head coach so the transition definitely played a part. Campbell has said they have put an extra emphasis on this one after that loss. The fact is, Campbell’s team really improved as the season went on last year. They were “close” against some very solid teams. They lost at home to Baylor by 3 as a 17-point underdog. They lost by 7 @ Oklahoma State as two TD underdog. ISU lost tight games at home to both Oklahoma (by 10) and KSU (by 5). Then they destroyed Texas Tech 66-10 as a home underdog. After the Iowa loss, this Cyclone team finished the season 6-2 ATS as an underdog with a number of near upsets as we mentioned above. They return their top RB, their QB (Parks), and most of their weapons on the outside. Iowa beat Wyoming last week but we were not overly impressed. Their offense was bad gaining only 260 yards vs a Cowboy defense that allowed well over 400 YPG last year. New QB Nate Stanley was shaky completing only 8 passes. He makes the first road start of his career here giving ISU a nice edge at QB in our opinion. The Hawkeye defense looked very good shutting down Wyoming QB Allen but the fact is the Cowboys were very one dimensional in that game. ISU will be much tougher to slow down on offense as they have a much better running game. Iowa once dominated this series going 15-0 from 1983-1997. However since 1998, Iowa State actually has the edge winning 10 while losing 9. This is a gigantic home game for ISU and we like them to win it outright

[New York Knight]

TEDDY DAVIS

NCAA-F | Sep 09, 2017
Iowa vs. Iowa State

Iowa State+3

I think the betting public has this game all wrong as they are jumping all over Iowa here. This Iowa St team is one of the most improved power 5 teams in the country IMO. Yes Iowa has a better OL and DL, but I wasn't so impressed with their performance last weekend vs Wyoming as they did commit 4 turnovers. You do that on the road against your rival and the game is over. Iowa St has enough talent on offense here to score and I believe Campbell knows it as he will try to get up early because Iowa is not a come from behind team. I think the so called upset happens. Take the Points!

[New York Knight]

BOBBY CONN

1* Free Play on Mississippi State -8½ -115

[New York Knight]

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS)



Point-spread: Winnipeg -2
Total: 60

Game Overview
The Roughriders are making a move in the West Division standings with three wins in a row (SU and ATS) and they can make up some more ground on Winnipeg in the backend of this home-and-home series. Kevin Glen put the ball up 36 times in Sunday’s win and he completed 26 passes for 386 yards and three touchdowns in one of his best performances of the year.

Winnipeg’s recent five-game SU winning streak came to an end in Sunday’s loss and it is now 4-2 ATS during this same span. The total went OVER the closing 58-point line in that loss and it has gone OVER in eight of the Blue Bombers’ first 10 games this year behind an offense that is averaging 33.2 points per game. Matt Nichols threw for 364 yards and two scores against Saskatchewan, but he was also picked off twice.

Betting Trends
Winnipeg still holds a 4-1 SU edge in the last five games of the West Division clash, but Saskatchewan has covered in three of the last four meetings. The total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings.

[New York Knight]

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (4-6-1 SU, 7-3 ATS)



Point-spread: Ottawa -12
Total: 54

Game Overview
Hamilton lost to Ottawa 37-18 in Week 9 as a 3 ½-point home underdog with the total ending as a PUSH on that 55-point line. In Monday’s game against Toronto, the Tiger-Cats needed a last-minute 37 field goal to capture their first SU victory of the year. Jeremiah Masoli got the start at quarterback in place of Zach Collaros and he completed 19-of-33 attempts for 219 yards and a score. June Jones made his debut as Hamilton’s new head coach.

The RedBlacks are back on top in the East Division standings with last Thursday’s win against Montreal and they have now posted victories in their last three games both SU and ATS. The offense has averaged 33.3 PPG during this current run to complement a defense that has allowed an average of just 15.3 PPG. Trevor Harris added another 343 passing yards to his CFL-high 3,531 passing yards on the year.

Betting Trends
The road team has won the last three meetings SU, but Ottawa has a 5-1 edge ATS in the last six meetings. The total had gone OVER in the last four meetings before ending as a PUSH a few weeks ago.