Saturday 9-23-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

The Prez

Auburn -18

Two SEC clubs meet up on Saturday night in Columbia, Missouri when the host Tigers welcome the Auburn Tigers. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Faurot Field. The defensive minded Auburn crew have an opportunity to get their offensive untracked against a Missouri defense that has allowed over 35 points per game across their first three contests.

Auburn took an early 6-0 led against No #2 ranked Clemson two Saturday's ago eventually falling by a 14-6 margin. The Tigers followed that up with a 24-10 win against Mercer last Saturday. Since the Tiger season opener, a 41-7 victory over Georgia Southern the offense has been scuffling. That figures to change this weekend when the Auburn "O" squares off against the SEC's most generous defense, Missouri, that is allowing 442.7 yards per game.

Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham led the offense to 510 total yards in the victory over the Bears a week ago but five turnovers kept the Tigers from registering but three touchdowns. Head coach Gus Malzahn is feeling some head due to his offense not performing to expectations but save the five TO's Stidham and the unit was efficient completing 32 of 37 pass attempts for 364 yards.

There isn't anything positive to speak of when referencing the Tigers of Missouri. The defense has allowed nearly twice as much yardage as the offensive has manufactured this season and is coming off a loss to the Purdue Boilermakers that saw the offense record a mere 203 total yards and combine to score just 16 points in the past two games,

Mizzou head coach Barry Odom fired defensive coordinator following the loss to South Carolina but it is unlikely to motivate or ignite the defensive unit. In truth, it is Odom that has been calling the defensive plays since last season, making Cross' departure nothing more than a smoke screen for Odom's issues with the athletic department.

The Auburn Tigers out-man and out-gun the Missouri Tigers and Saturday's final score won't be close.

[New York Knight]

Buster Sports

Louisiana Tech +8

Last week we went against South Carolina with Kentucky getting the OR victory. Today we will fade the Gamecocks one more time. Not only did South Carolina lose their game last week but they also lost a crucial part of their offense when WR Deebo Samuel was lost for the season with a broken leg. South Carolina won their first two games of the year but in each of those games, they won with turnovers. They were also out yarded in both of those victories. Last week Louisiana Tech won a huge conference game beating Western Kentucky. They will come to Columbia with tons of momentum. The Bulldogs are one of the best teams in C-USA and their D is ranked 66th in the country. We believe that with the loss of Samuel for the South Carolina offense, they will struggle against the Louisiana Tech D as they did last week against Kentucky. At the time of this writing, we are getting 8 points and we will be happy to take them. Backing our selection is the fact that Louisiana Tech are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the SEC and the fact that the Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.

[New York Knight]

Oskeim Sports

New Mexico +10.5

Tulsa should not be laying double-digits to anyone, especially to a New Mexico squad that possesses an efficient offense. I am certainly aware of the fact that the Lobos could be down to their third-string quarterback for this game after starter Lamar Jordan and backup Tevaka Tuioti were both knocked out in last week’s game against Boise State.

Third-string quarterback Coltin Gerhart is a graduate transfer from Arizona State and looked decent in relief on the blue carpet. New Mexico’s coaching staff also has two extra days to get Gerhart prepared to face one of the worst defenses in the country.

Tulsa is allowing 51.7 points and 638 yards per game at 9.4 yards per play and 12.4 yards per point to teams that would combine to average just 7.3 yards per play. The Golden Hurricane rate 2.3 yards per rush play and 1.9 yards per pass play worse than average this season. Tulsa’s performance in Week Two epitomizes how bad its defense is: 42 points and 598 total yards at 8.1 yards per play yielded to Louisiana-Lafayette! That is alarming.

New Mexico’s methodical offense is averaging 26.7 points and 396 total yards at 5.9 yards per play, which is certainly good enough to consistently move the chains against Tulsa’s stop unit.

New Mexico’s ground attack has been 0.4 yards per attempt better than average in 2017 (4.9 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow 4.5 yards per rush play), which is significant in that the Lobos will be able to control the clock and keep Tulsa’s offense off the field (Tulsa is averaging 92 plays per game).

I went back the past two seasons to see how the Golden Hurricane have performed against other option attacks. Needless to say, Tulsa’s coaching staff has failed in every respect, giving up an average of 43 points and 7.7 yards per play to Navy the last two years.

More bad news for Tulsa - star defensive end Jesse Brubaker, a senior who had 13.5 tackles for a loss last season, is suspended for the first half of this game due to a targeting penalty he received in last week’s contest.

While Tulsa is averaging 47.0 points per game this season, its offense is only 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre attack). Meanwhile, the Lobos’ stop unit rates 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yards per play), thereby effectively neutralizing Tulsa’s overrated attack.

From a technical standpoint, New Mexico is 12-4 ATS in its last sixteen games following a loss, which indicates that head coach Bob Davie does an excellent job in getting his team to bounce back from defeat.

In contrast, the Golden Hurricane are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games versus .499 or worse opposition and 3-8-1 ATS in their last eleven games overall versus teams with a losing record (15-34 ATS since 1992).

With New Mexico standing at 36-17 ATS versus teams averaging 31+ points per game, 15-5 ATS versus teams averaging 37+ points per game and 21-9 ATS against opposing offenses that average more than 5.89 yards per play.

[New York Knight]

Oskeim Sports

Iowa +13

Both teams take the field with identical 3-0 records, although I have been more impressed with Iowa’s resume, which includes a double-digit win over Wyoming and a road victory at Iowa State. The Hawkeyes are averaging 33.0 points and 398 total yards per game at 5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play to a mediocre attack to they are just slightly above average offensively.

However, Iowa possesses an outstanding defense that has been 0.8 yards per play better than average (5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yards per play), especially at home where the Hawkeyes have yielded just 8.5 points and 269 total yards per game at 4.6 yards per play and 31.6 yards per point. Overall, I rate Iowa 0.9 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage in 2017.

Penn State has amassed eye-opening statistics by beating up on Akron (52-0) and Georgia State (56-0), while actually being outgained in its 33-14 win over Pittsburgh.

The Nittany Lions’ aerial attack has been mediocre despite averaging 282 passing yards at 9.6 yards per pass attempt with a 64.8% completion rate. Specifically, the 9.6 yards per pass play has come against three teams that would combine to allow 9.6 yards per play to an average quarterback.

Meanwhile, Iowa’s defensive backfield has been spectacular this season, allowing 6.2 yards per pass attempt to a group of quarterbacks who would average 7.5 yards per pass play against a mediocre secondary). Rating 1.3 yards per pass play better than average gives the Hawkeyes a significant advantage over Penn State’s grossly overrated passing attack.

Iowa will have a difficult time moving the chains against an elite Penn State defense that is 1.0 yards per play better than average. However, the Hawkeyes play at an excruciatingly slow pace that allows them to dominate time of possession (averaging 35:35 per game this season), thereby making them solid investments when getting points.

From a technical standpoint, Iowa is 9-3 ATS with conference revenge (lost 41-14 last year), 5-1 ATS as a home underdog of 4+ points and 8-2 ATS in Game Four of the season.

Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is a profitable 9-2 ATS as a conference home underdog of more than seven points, including 7-1 ATS with revenge and 4-0 ATS at home with triple-revenge. Ferentz is also an incredible 19-5-1 ATS when playing with revenge with the Hawkeyes, including 10-0-1 ATS over the last eleven circumstances.

Finally, Iowa is 22-8 ATS as an underdog of more than a touchdown, including 17-3 ATS versus an opponent off a straight-up win (defeated Michigan as a 21.5-point underdog last season). Grab the points and invest with confidence.

[New York Knight]

MATT JOSEPHS

NCAA-F | Sep 23, 2017
Florida International vs. Rice

Florida International+2

I watched all of the Rice Houston game and was thoroughly unimpressed with the Owls. Their offense was stale and their defense got gashed. The team will be without their starting QB and one of their better weapons Sam Stewart. The team's one win came at UTEP which says more about the Miners then it does about Rice. FIU has had extra time to prepare for this one after their 17-10 win over Alcorn State. Let's be honest, they aren't that great either, but they are healthier and feature a little more talent.

[New York Knight]

PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER

CFL | Sep 23, 2017
Montreal vs. Toronto

Montreal+7½ -130

*PCG RAW NUMBERS are 812-656 +154.66 units for the 2017 season.
CFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Road dogs of +4 to +13 and Home dogs between -1 and +2 that finished last season at least 2 games below .500 are 88-44-4 ATS.
Active to Play on the Tiger Cats and Alouettes this week!

OTHER TEAM TRENDS:
The Argonauts are 1-17 ATS (-10.19 ppg) since Aug 20, 2010 at home after a game at home
The Argonauts are 12-32-1 ATS (-7.91 ppg) since Nov 18, 2007 as a home favorite

[New York Knight]

PURE LOCK

Pure Lock's FREE CFB play Saturday 9-23-17

Washington -10 1/2

[New York Knight]

Otto Sports

UNLV at Ohio St
Over 64.5

Eliminate for a second Ohio State's dismal offensive showing vs. Oklahoma in which the Buckeyes posted only 350 total yards and 16 points. Instead, turn your attention to Week 1 in which the Buckeyes rolled up nearly 600 yards and 49 points against Indiana. And last week as well as OSU hung 586 yards on only 69 plays in its win over Army. Bettors should feel confident moving forward that Ohio State's offense is only going to get better as first-year OC Kevin Wilson and Urban Meyer adjust to one another. In the meantime, this is still a top-tier offense, especially when facing lower-tier competition which is exactly what they'll see this weekend in UNLV.

The Rebels were not an especially strong defensive team a season ago even though the schedule came up very light in terms of opposing offenses. UNLV faced only three teams in the top 50 in total offense and in those three games it allowed 50 ppg. This season's numbers look tolerable (5.31 ypp allowed) but once again, the competition (Howard and Idaho) was very weak.

Offensively, UNLV head coach Tony Sanchez stated that while run-first, clock churning drives are ideal, they aren't likely to occur against the Buckeyes’ stout stop unit. Meaning, in order for UNLV to put points on the board, they'll need to do so via the big play.

“We know we’ve been a pretty successful run football team, and that’s who we are and that’s kind of how we’ve built ourselves,” Sanchez said, “but we’ve got a talented receiving corps, and if you’re going to have an opportunity in a game like this, you’re going to have to stretch the field. You’re not just going to be able to sit there, run the ball 50 times right at a front like that. They’re pretty stout up there.”

Easier said than done against a very formidable defense on the road but UNLV's offense has a lot of potential. Quarterback Armani Rogers gives the offense a run-pass dynamic it didn't have with last year's trio of sub-par signal callers. And there are weapons in both the backfield and at wide receiver. Despite a litany of key injuries and zero production from the QB position, UNLV still averaged a respectable 5.86 ypp last year in MWC play. And while this year's competition has been ultra-weak, it's a positive sign the Rebels averaged over 8 yards per play in both games. Ohio State’s got the plenty of potential to hang 50+ in this one which means a score or two from a very offensively improved underdog has this one going over the total.

[New York Knight]

Power Sports

Air Force +3.5

The AFA was a nice winner for me last Saturday afternoon as they never trailed by more than the spread (23.5 points), covering easily at "The Big House." While ultimately falling short has to be a little disappointing (lost 29-13), it's not like anyone (myself included) gave them much of a shot at beating Michigan outright. It's a different story this week, however, as they return to Colorado Springs for the Mt West opener against division favorite San Diego State. Off B2B upsets, the Aztecs are riding high right now, but this time around I think they are the ones ripe to be upset.

Maybe San Diego State should be in the Pac 12 and not the Mountain West? In the last two weeks, they've beaten Arizona State and then Stanford, the latter as eight-point home dogs. The Aztecs are now 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Pac 12 teams the L2 seasons. However, Saturday night's upset comes w/ a slight caveat in that there was a darkness delay that seemed to adversly affect the road team. SDSU threw the GW TD pass in the final minute, after the delay, and it should also be noted a +3 turnover margin really helped them in pulling the upset. As impressive as the win and the Aztecs defense was, I envision they'll struggle to contain the AFA rushing attack here, which averages over 320 YPG (168 vs. Michigan).

SDSU has certainly had Air Force's number, beating them six straigh times including a win in the '15 MWC Championship Game. But half of those wins have come by a field goal or less. They did not meet last season. As I discussed in LW's analysis, the Flyboys don't have a ton of returning starters (only 1 on defense!), but their a system-based team, so that doesn't matter as much. Last week's loss actually snapped a seven-game win streak for Troy Calhoun's team, but they are still 7-2 ATS their last nine times being an underdog. They're also 12-1 SU L13 home games, 9-4 ATS.

[New York Knight]

ALEX SMART

Army +2½

Army works on ball control via a ground heavy attack. The Cadets average 364.7 ypd via the rush this season. Meanwhile, the Green Wave despite of knowing what to expect are just 6-49 SU in their L/55 games when they allow 200 or more yards rushing including a recent loss to Navy 23-21.

With that said, I'm betting on Army piling up at least 200 yards plus, and for Tulane to fail here in a letdown spot after playing Oklahoma last week while allowing the Sooners to score 42 straight points in a lopsided 56-14 home loss.

TULANE is 6-17 ATS L/23 in home games after a loss by 28 or more points.

CFB Home favorites like Tulane - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after a loss by 17 or more points are just 25-58 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

[New York Knight]

CAPPERS CLUB

Purdue +10

The Purdue Boilermakers have been one of the biggest surprises in football, and with the line moving to +10 I like the value in this game.

The Boilermakers come into this game with a 2-1 record, and their only loss came against the Louisville Cardinals, and that was only by seven points.

The Wolverines offense is no where near as good as the Cardinals, and if the Boilermakers could hold them 35 points, I think they will really be able to slow down the Wolverines in this game.

Some trends to note. Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

[New York Knight]

SCOTT SPREITZER

Arkansas State +6

SMU put 36 points on the board against TCU last time out, but allowed 56. The Mustangs have allowed TCU and North Texas to complete 56 of 77, 73% of their passes, for 789 yards, with 7 TDs and just 2 INTs. The porous pass defense plays right into Arkansas State's strength, the passing game led by QB Justice Hansen. The ASU signal caller has completed 71% of his passes on the season, averaging over 385 yards per game with 8 TDs and only 2 INTs. And while Arkansas State was cruising to an easy 45-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, SMU was suffering the tough emotional and physical loss to TCU. SMU's defense ranks 117th against the pass and 104th in total yards allowed per game. We had Arkansas State and cashed when they covered at Nebraska in their season opener.

[New York Knight]

Dave Cokin

UMass +28

I won’t try to make much of a case for Massachusetts. The Minuteman are not good, although they might not be as horrible as most think. I have them at #112 out of 130 in my FBS power ratings. Teams outside the top 100 are capable of being blown out at any time, and in fact, the betting line is almost exactly where it should be based on those power ratings.

But Tennessee is the ultimate red flag entry right now. The Volunteers are off a demoralizing final play of the game Hail Mary loss to Florida. It’s never easy to put those in the rear view mirror, and it’s not like the prospect of hosting little UMass is likely to rev up the Tennessee engines.

There’s more. I’ve got good info that there’s a load of conflict taking place off the field for the Volunteers, as members of the coaching staff are not exactly seeing eye to eye these days. That’s not a good thing and I’ve heard, again via respected sources, that the “wheels might be about to come off”.

I felt Butch Jones was on the hot seat coming into this season and the way the Vols lost to the Gators sure didn’t help the coach’s cause. The Georgia game next week is now massive as far as this season is concerned for Tennessee.

Under the circumstances, focus could be a real issue for the Volunteers this weekend. Tennessee figures to dispatch UMass with relative ease, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to cover this enormous line. Getting four TD’s with Massachusetts is the way I’d play this one.

[New York Knight]

Harry Bondi

WAKE FOREST -4

We used Wake Forest two weeks ago and cashed a ticket in a blowout win over B.C. In fact, over the last two weeks, the Deacons have outscored opponents 80-20 and covered the spread by an alarming 45 points! App State has covered just five of its last 19 at home and and five of its last 15 as an underdog. Lay the road chalk.

[New York Knight]

Robert Ferringo

Arkansas +2.5

I don't think that Arkansas is going to miss out on a chance to pull a key SEC upset here. Bret Bielema has lost to A&M five straight years, including a 21-point rout last season after back-to-back overtime heartbreakers in 2014 and 2015. Well, it is time for the Razorbacks to snap the streak. This A&M team has issues. Kevin Sumlin has fans and regents openly campaigning for his firing. The Aggies still have that unreal choke against UCLA hanging over them. They were also unimpressive in a 10-point win over Nicholls State and the Aggies were actually down 21-14 at halftime last week against Louisiana-Lafayette. Arkansas has had two weeks to prepare for this game and lick its wounds after falling to TCU. But that 28-7 loss was a bit misleading, as it was 14-7 with less than three minutes left to play and Arkansas had two missed field goals. I think Arkansas is extremely motivated in this game and I think that they are more focused than the Aggies. I like the Razorbacks to get this win here.