Saturday 9-23-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Dave Cokin

Miami Ohio +2.5

Miami Ohio has to bounce back after blowing the rivalry game with Cincinnati. This game was 17-6 late on Saturday. But the RedHawks gave up a TD drive and a deuce to make it 17-14. The things fell apart. The kick returner should have downed the ball but didn't and got tackled at the five. Still, Miami had a chance to salt the game away with a 3rd and 2 at their 13. But they took a really bad delay of game penalty, and on the next play, the QB threw a pick-six to put Cincy ahead. A late Miami drive stalled at the Bearcats 20. Miami coach Chuck Martin called it the worst loss of his career. If Miami has a hangover here, CMU probably beats them. But on paper, Miami is the better football team and this program showed a great ability to fight through adversity last season. CMU has had one good performance thus far, but that was against a pretty awful Kansas entry. I'll bank on the RedHawks putting the Cincinnati game behind them, in which case they're a nice value as dogs win this matchup. I would recommend buying the half point up to +3 with Miami.

[New York Knight]

#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Idaho Vandals + 3 1/2

[New York Knight]

Totals4U

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Ohio/Eastern Michigan under 53

[New York Knight]

Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Saturday, September 23, 2017

(901) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (L LYNN - R) VS (902) PITTSBURGH PIRATES (G COLE).

Play UNDER the total.

[New York Knight]

Roz Wins

Roz's Saturday, September 23, 2017, Free Pick

(901) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (L LYNN - R) VS (902) PITTSBURGH PIRATES (G COLE).

Play Pittsburgh.

[New York Knight]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, September 23, 2017

(323) MISSISSIPPI STATE VS (324) GEORGIA.

Take: UNDER.

Reason: Your free play for Saturday, September 23, 2017 comes in college football as Mississippi State and Georgia square off. o. 19 Mississippi State launched itself into the national rankings with an impressive rout of LSU last week allowing 7 points. They like to run the football, which chews up yards and the clock. The Under is 11-4 in the Bulldogs last 15 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Georgia can play defense, too, 13-3 under the total at home. Defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons, the league's Defensive Lineman of the Week, set career highs in tackles (seven) and sacks (1.5) last week. Play Mississippi State/Georgia under the total.

[New York Knight]

TOP RANK SPORTS PICKS

Texas Tech +6 over Houston (NCAAF)

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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

Michigan St. +3.5 over Notre Dame (NCAAF)

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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE

S. Carolina -9 over Louisiana Tech (NCAAF)

[New York Knight]

MIKEY SPORTS

Mikey Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 9-23-17

Georgia -4

[New York Knight]

SEAN MURPHY

NCAA-F | Sep 23, 2017
UMass vs. Tennessee

Tennessee-27½

My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over UMass at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The Vols suffered a heartbreaking loss on the final play of the game in Gainesville last week but I see this as an excellent ‘get right’ matchup against a UMass squad we’ve kept a close eye on so far this season.

After successfully fading the Minutemen with Old Dominion two weeks ago we switched gears and backed them last week on the road against Temple. It’s time to zig-zag again this week as they take a big step up in class against Tennessee.

I expected the UMass offense to bust out against Temple last week but that never really happened. Meanwhile, the Minutemen defense was pedestrian at best and obviously won’t find the going any easier this Saturday.

We’re being asked to lay a steep price with the Vols, but it’s warranted in my opinion.

[New York Knight]

JOHN MARTIN

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Oregon -14.5

Here's a stat for ya. Oregon has scored exactly 42 points in the first half of each of their first three games against Southern Utah, Nebraska and Wyoming. It's safe to say their offense is back under Willie Taggart. They have looked as good as almost anyone in the country up to this point. Holding potential #1 draft pick Josh Allen and Wyoming to just 13 points and 183 total yards last week shows that their defense is much improved under new coordinator Jim Leavitt. Arizona State hasn't looked good any any of its three games. It only won by 6 against New Mexico State as 26-point favorites. The Sun Devils then lost at home to San Diego State by 10 as favorites, and lost by 7 at Texas Tech. The Sun Devils have been outgained by nearly 100 yards per game. Their defense has been shredded for 37.7 points and 505 yards per game thus far, and it won't get any easier against this high-powered Ducks attack this week.

[New York Knight]

RED DOG SPORTS

UNC +1.5

The Tar Heels lost at Duke last year 28-27. They sit at 1-2 and will have no shot at a bowl if they go 1-3 with 3 home losses. QB Chazz Surratt was recruited by Duke and should be motivated playing the Blue Devils, who are 3-0 but go on the road (only 8 miles away) to play Larry Fedora's team that should have some confidence after a blowout win at ODU.

UNC wins a close one but take the +1.5.

[New York Knight]

FREDDY WILLS

Georgia -4

I’ll give the play at the top of the podcast and it’s on Georgia -4.5 between the hedges for our free play of the week. This is the most interesting match up of the week and I’m going to fade the hype of Miss State who just last week shocked LSU in their own building 37-7. I’m not overreacting. That was a massive coaching advantage for Miss State with Dan Mullen over Ed Orgeron as sad as it is to say.

In this game Kirby Smart has his best Georgia team and the last time he faced off against a good Miss State offense he did so as the DC at Alabama. They went on the road and held Dak Prescott, another mobile QB to just 89 yards rushing and 6 total points. This time a rested Georgia team hosts Miss State who just played a tough SEC game and is in a hang over spot, but let’s look at the match up a little more anyway.

For Miss State to win they must run the ball. Last year in their losses they averaged 2.31 ypc less compared to their wins. Nick Fitzgerald is getting some help this year from Aeris Williams who is averaging over 7 yards per carry, but this team had a very misleading victory at Louisiana Tech the week before and I expect some struggles getting that running game going this week.

Georgia defensively returns 10 starters this was a team that held Notre Dame and a mobile QB in Winbush to just 55 yards running and they did that on the road! Notre Dame’s offense has been great against everyone else and just ran for 515 yards last week against a usual stout Boston College defense. I believe that Miss State will have to win with the arm of Nick Fitzgerald and I don’t like his chances on the road where doesn’t have nearly as good of numbers particularly in the SEC road games where he only eclipsed a 101 QB rating once and it came against a bad pass defense in Ole Miss. How bad is a 101 QB Rating? Illinois, last year ranked 124th in college football for the season with a 101.4 QB rating. Fitzgerald on the road has a 107 QB rating. Vanderbilt ranked 116th in the nation a year ago with 107 QB rating.

Georgia’s offense is not lighting it up and that may be where most of you feel comfortable with 4.5 points if you are leaning towards Miss State’s side. A few things to look at here. Much like Miss State Georgia must run the ball to win behind their senior RB’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel who are both having great years so far as this offense is averaging 230 yards rushing per game. Just so you know since 2008, Georgia is 38-4 when rushing for over 200 yards. Miss State’s defense allowed 5.16 ypc in SEC play a year ago and allowed 200+ in 3 of their 4 road games. Now they held LSU in check, but LSU ran it just 29 times and both of their RB’s averaged over 5 yards per carry. I also think Jake Fromm is flying under the radar he seems to be a major upgrade over Eason. He makes quick decisions and it has benefited the running game.

At the end of the day both teams have impressive wins against premier programs Notre Dame and LSU while also defeating some very good group of 5 teams Louisiana Tech & Appalachian State. It should be a fun game, but I see Georgia winning this one by 7-10 points at least.

[New York Knight]

Joe Everett

Central Florida Over 59½

The Knights are running Scott Frost’s version of Oregon’s zone read and hurry up attack. He has a dual threat quarterback from Hawaii McKenzie Milton to run his option style scheme that relies on a running threat behind center. Central Florida has some real NFL talent in junior receiver Tre’Quan Smith and junior tight end Jordan Akins, who was a third round draft pick by the Texas Rangers of MLB. The strength of this UCF team is an offensive line that boasts 100+ career starts and they should find success on the ground against an odd front Maryland team that has allowed 41 points to a suspect Texas offense and 17 points to FCS Towson last week.

The Terps have a run heavy offense that features a number of breakaway threats in runningbacks Ty Johnson, a junior who boasts a 15.1 yards per carry average and sophomore Lorenzo Harrison who averaged 7.2 yards a clip as a freshman. Maryland has a unique dual threat quarterback in freshman Kasim Hill and while he was a backup to Tyrrell Pigrome, Hill is a more accomplished passer and the future of the program at the position. The Terrapins have scored 50-plus points in both of their games, they are coming off the bye week and they’ll have an easier time putting points up at home in College Park. Central Florida lost a lot on defense from last year’s team and it that was an issue to start the season, as they gave up 134 rushing yards to Florida International and the Panthers averaged 5.2 yards a carry on the ground in that game.

Look for both teams to have problems getting their defenses off the field in what will turn into a shootout. Both teams have mobile passers, threats at runningback and strong offensive lines. The last time these two teams met the game went into double overtime but it ended in an UNDER in a 30-24 Maryland win, so Central Florida will have revenge on their minds. This number opened up at 64½ and has dropped five points down to 59½ but I’m doubting this game ends in anything below a 42-34 or at worst 38-31 Central Florida victory here.

Toledo / Miami Over 61

The Rockets might be 3-0 to start the year, but if we learned anything last week it’s that Toledo couldn’t stop a child at a school crossing after allowing Tulsa to run up and down the field for 423 rushing yards and six, yes SIX rushing touchdowns. The Rockets struggled with the Hurricane’s tempo, they couldn’t get off blocks against the run and now they’re up against another Hurricane in Miami. This Miami offense features a future pro in Mark Walton at runningback, an offensive line that returns four starters and the extra time off has allowed the Hurricanes’ number one receiver Ahmmon Richards more time to heal up his pulled hamstring.

Toledo has a squad loaded with seniors led by quarterback Logan Woodside and receiver Cody Thompson who scored three touchdowns last week. They have a two headed tandem at runningback with senior Terry Swanson and Art Thompkins who have combined for 512 rushing yards. The Rockets have a versatile attack, operating mostly out of read option shotgun sets that exploits mismatches in opposing secondaries. The potential issue with this play is a Miami defense that is loaded with NFL talent, namely sophomore defensive end Joe Jackson and his fellow sophomores Shaq Quarterman, Michael Pinckney and Zach McCloud. A trio of linebackers that set the tone for the defense and played a ton of snaps for the Hurricanes last season.

Look for Miami to jump out to an early lead and control most of this contest with a strong game by Mark Walton but Toledo won’t disappear with their own share of the scoring in this road game. These two teams haven’t met recently but the Rockets have gone 2-1 to the OVER to start the year. This line has only moved up a point from 60 to 61 points but while the appeal to grab the number early may be there, be mindful of the weather. The forecast is calling for a chance of thunderstorms but outside of a monsoon rolling through Coral Gables, we’re calling for a final in the range or 52-24 or 49-17 worst case.

TCU / Oklahoma St Over 71½

The Horned Frogs have a ton of athletes and their team speed is a major factor in this game with their spread attack featuring guys junior receiver like KaVontae Turpin and their two super freshmen Jalen Reagor & Kenedy Snell. Turpin is a similar type of player to Dante Hall or Darren Sproles with the type of game breaking speed and electric moves he is capable of making on special teams and on offense. Sonnie Cumbie will run tempo at the Cowboys and attempt to get his running backs Kyle Hicks (Questionable) and sophomore Darius Anderson the ball in space against the Cowboys linebackers to take advantage of their speed.

The Cowboys on offense have been automatic with the dynamic senior duo of quarterback Mason Rudolph and James Washington who are capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. College secondaries just aren’t built to stop the talent Oklahoma State has in the receiving corps with Washington and guys like junior Jalen McCleskey and senior Marcell Ateman. All three of the Cowboys’ leading receivers have scored three receiving touchdowns and their tandem of Justice Hill and JD King at runningback has proven to be very effective. Against a TCU defense that allowed 36 points to Southern Methodist, look for the “Mason Rudolph Family Fun Show” to continue their high flying ways.

Oklahoma State dealt TCU a disheartening 6-31 loss in Fort Worth last year so there’s certainly a revenge factor here for the Horned Frogs and with both offenses clicking to start the year, look for a high scoring conference thriller in this one. The forecast in Stillwater is partly cloudy with a slight wind and while the line value is all but gone with the total jumping up to 71½ from the 64½ opener, this game has all the appearances of a boat race finishing in the range of 52-32 with the Cowboys running away with yet another win.