Wednesday 9-27-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Dave Price

Sep 27 '17, 7:05 PM in 5h
MLB | Nationals vs Phillies
Play on: Phillies +150 at 5Dimes

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:

1* on Philadelphia Phillies +150

The Key: We are getting a tremendous price on the Philadelphia Phillies here as +150 home dogs Wednesday. The Washington Nationals have nothing to play for as they are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the National League. They will play the Cubs in the divisional round. They aren't concerned with winning games over the final week of the season. Tanner Roark sports a 4.38 ERA in 29 starts this year for the Nationals. Mark Leiter Jr. has quietly posted a 2.90 ERA in 5 home starts for the Phillies this year. Take Philadelphia.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta -110 over N.Y. METS

With just four or five games left before the Wild Card games and playoffs, we’re going to slow way down and play one game today, as we’re not going so well in baseball right now and don’t want to dump a bunch of units back. We’re also abandoning the Coors Field angle for the rest of the year. That brings us to Sean Newcomb and the Braves to beat the Mets.

Newcomb's strikeout history has been remarkably consistent, and with a 13% swing and miss rate over 95 frames, he's lived up to his advance billing as a strikeout pitcher so far. Newcomb has 101 K’s in 95 innings.
Control and command were known issues for him coming into the majors, and they continue to be a problem; however, there has been steady progress in both categories, which are positive signs that he's starting to figure it out. Newcomb has prevented those walks from doing more damage by keeping his fly-ball % down. Over his last 21 innings, Newcomb has a BB/K split of 9/25. A former first round pick, Newcomb is a high-upside prospect, but he has to overcome the control/command barrier in order to achieve his full potential. He's making strides and is high on our radar going into next season. This dude has filthy stuff and is the superior starter here by a wide margin.

By contrast, Robert Gsellman is nothing more than a glorified pitching machine. He has a weak BB/K split of 44/78 in 114 frames. He has also posted an xERA of 6.12 since the All-Star break. Gsellman posted an impressive 8.5 K’s/9 in eight big league appearances (seven starts) in 2016, while recording a 19 percent swing and miss rate on his slider. He's down to 12 percent on the pitch this year, and has also lost a little velocity. Gsellman has been unable to build on last year's success, thanks to a combination of things. His ERA/xERA gap reveals that he's been a little unlucky, but he's also getting fewer swinging strikes than last year and walking more batters than he usually does. Gsellman looks like a pretty risky play here, as his numbers are weak across the board and his confidence is shot.

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Nelly

Orioles vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -123

Going on the road to Pittsburgh for a short two-game interleague set is a tough way to end the season for an Orioles team that has fallen apart in the final month. After a late August surge the Orioles are 4-15 the past 19 games and the pitching staff has allowed eight or more runs five times in the last eight games. Chad Kuhl is 7-11 but he has been a strong pitcher for the Pirate in the second half of the season. In 15 starts since July 1 Kuhl owns a 3.25 ERA with solid strikeout numbers. He actually holds a 10.0 K/9 over his last seven starts and he has been very tough on right-handed hitters. Gabriel Ynoa has made three starts in September with adequate results, though he has cleared five innings just once. His strikeout rate is marginal at just 5.3 K/9 as a starter and his xFIP of 5.06 towers over a strong 3.18 ERA. His ERA on the road in 5.00 and that is a small sample of just nine innings as he has mainly pitched at home in his young career. Baltimore’s lineup has a .653 team OPS the past 25 games for a great collapse for a powerful lineup and the Pirates are set on finishing strong with an .836 team OPS this week.

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Tony Finn

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Play: Baltimore +115

This late season interleague contest between Baltimore and Pittsburgh is one of the final five games of the 2017 season for both clubs and means little in the big picture save another chance for Gabriel Ynoa to impress his coaching staff. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park with Ynoa (2-2, 3.41 ERA) opposing the Pirates Chad Kuhl (7-11, 4.31).

Shifted to the starting rotation earlier this month, Ynoa was stellar in his last turn containing the long-ball lineup of the Tampa Bay Rays. Ynoa pitched a season-high eight innings and allowing one run on five hits. While Ynoa owns a 2.78 ERA at home versus a 5.00 ERA on the road today's event takes place in pitcher-friendly PNC.

In his first start at Camden Yards this season and his third of the month the Orioles righty offered the staff and the front office that he well could be an internal solution to one of several pending rotation openings for the 2018 campaign.

The inconsistent season of Kuhl continued. The Bucs' right-hander has be up-and-down the entire summer. He experienced a 12-start winless drought earlier this season and is off a start against the Cincinnati Reds that saw him allow four home runs in 4 2/3 innings. Kuhl's 4.31 ERA and 1.4-plus WHIP in combination with a BAA of 2.83 is difficult to support against a free swinging Orioles lineup in a game that means little to Kuhl or the Bucs and much more to Ynoa and his future. Kuhl's 32.7% hard contact and BABIP of .344 offers evidence that when batters make contact their chances of reaching base are good.

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Carmine Bianco

Barcelona at Sporting Lisbon
Play: 1H Total Over 1.3

Wednesday's Free Play is a first half total as Barcelona and Sporting square off in Portugal. Both sides came away with 3 points on Match Day 1 each scoring 3 but the dynamics within this game and formations and the tendencies of the high press at home by Sporting should help create a number of chances throughout but particularly enough in the first to get us a couple goals and an over winner here.

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John Martin

Sep 27 '17, 8:10 PM

MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -1½ +125 at BMaker

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+125)

The Milwaukee Brewers trail the Colorado Rockies by 1.5 games for the second wild card spot. Fortunately they've picked up a series with the Cincinnati Reds here. This is a Reds team that is 0-7 in their last seven games overall coming in. Brandon Woodruff is 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in seven starts for the Brewers and is clearly the better starter in this matchup. Homer Bailey is 5-9 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 17 starts for the Reds this year. Bailey is also 6-9 with a 4.87 ERA in 25 previous starts against Milwaukee. Give me the Brewers on the Run Line.

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Info Plays

Sep 27 '17, 7:10 PM

MLB | Braves vs Mets
Play on: Braves -109 at GTBets

1* Free Play on Braves -109

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Sports Betting Tips

MLB HOUSTON ASTROS/TEXAS RANGERS o10

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Dezthecapper

MLB COLORADO ROCKIES/MIAMI MARLINS u11.5

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Team Underground

MLB KANSAS CITY ROYALS ‑170

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Tommy King Wins

MLB CHICAGO CUBS +100

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Line Mover Sports

MLB CINCINNATI REDS +150

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Monster Sports Picks

MLB OAKLAND ATHLETICS/SEATTLE MARINERS o9.5

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Top Rank Sports Picks

MLB Toronto +155

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Elite Sports Picks

MLB Royals over 9