Thursday 9-28-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 8:25 PM ET, Thursday, September 28, 2017
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin


Preview: Bears at Packers

Gracenote
Sep 26, 2017

The oldest rivalry in the NFL has become one-sided in recent years, something the Chicago Bears hope to change when they pay a visit to the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night in a prime-time NFC North matchup. The Packers swept the season series last year en route to winning the division title and have captured six of the last seven matchups.

It will mark the 195th matchup between Chicago and Green Bay -- and the first where both teams are each coming off an overtime victory. Running back Jordan Howard's 19-yard touchdown run provided the exclamation point on the Bears' 23-17 victory over Pittsburgh, helping them avoid an 0-3 start for third straight season. Green Bay was seconds from a second straight defeat before Aaron Rodgers tossed a tying touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson, setting up a game-winning field goal in overtime in a 27-24 victory over visiting Cincinnati. The series could not be more evenly matched -- each team has won 93 times to go along with six ties.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS,, NFL Network. LINE: Packers -7. O/U: 45.5

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-2): Chicago will try to run the ball for two reasons -- to keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands and alleviate the pressure on quarterback Mike Glennon, who threw for only 101 yards and a TD on 15-of-22 passing. The Bears rushed for 220 yards against the Steelers as Howard, despite dealing with an ailing shoulder, piled up 138 and two scores while electrifying rookie Tarik Cohen had 78 yards on 12 carries. With the wide receiver corps ravaged by injury, Howard and Cohen also led the team with five and four catches, respectively. Safety Quintin Demps broke his arm in Sunday's game, a blow for a defense that has only eight interceptions in each of the past two seasons.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-1): Rodgers is second in the league with 967 yards passing, exceeding 300 in each of the first three games, although his passer rating is below 100 for only the third time in 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay's starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a banged-up offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games, but he carved up the Bears for a career-best 162 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns in December. The Packers are eighth in the league, allowing 296.7 yards per game.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Rodgers has 17 scoring passes versus one interception in the past six matchups with Chicago.

2. Cohen has 20 receptions to lead all NFL running backs.

3. Nelson has 34 receptions and four TDs in the last five games against the Bears.

PREDICTION: Packers 30, Bears 16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Chicago at Green Bay

ATS Trends

Chicago

Bears are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bears are 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Green Bay

Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC. Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Packers are 45-22 ATS in their last 67 vs. NFC North. Packers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

OU Trends

Chicago

Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 8-3 in Bears last 11 games in Week 4. Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 games in September. Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 vs. NFC North. Over is 27-11 in Bears last 38 games following a straight up win.

Green Bay

Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 8-1 in Packers last 9 games following a straight up win. Over is 8-1 in Packers last 9 vs. NFC. Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games in Week 4. Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games on grass. Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games overall. Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 home games. Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC North. Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a ATS loss. Over is 13-4 in Packers last 17 games in September.

Head to Head

• Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Green Bay.
• Favorite is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
• Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
• Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 8:00 PM ET, Thursday, September 28, 2017
Where: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa


Preview: Texas at Iowa State

Gracenote
Sep 26, 2017

Texas will have had 12 days to move on from a bitter 27-24 double-overtime loss at No. 5 USC when the Longhorns open Big 12 Conference play Thursday night at Iowa State. And although many viewed the close road loss to the Trojans as a moral victory for first-year coach Tom Herman's rebuilding squad, Herman was having none of it.

"Everybody wants to tell us how well we played and how much better we looked, how different we looked, and that's true," Herman told Hookemplus.com. "We're going to build on a lot of those things. But we're in a zero-sum business. You either did it or you didn't. They don't put the L next to that game with a little asterisk that says, "Yeah, but ..." The Longhorns, who opened the season with a 51-41 home loss to Maryland and followed that up with a 56-0 home victory over woeful San Jose State before falling to the Trojans, defeated Iowa State 27-6 last season in Austin and are 5-1 all-time in Ames. "When you look at big-picture goals ... we want to compete for the Big 12 Championship in the month of November," Herman said.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Texas -6.5

ABOUT TEXAS (1-2, 0-0 Big 12): Sophomore quarterback Shane Buechele, who passed for 375 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another TD against Maryland, is expected to return to the starting lineup after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury. The bad news is he won't have All-American left tackle Connor Williams (sprained MCL and PCL) around to block for him on an already thin offensive line that managed to pave the way for only 68 yards rushing on 35 attempts versus USC. Junior defensive back DeShon Elliott, who had two interceptions and seven tackles against USC, leads a stout Longhorn defense that has allowed 113 yards rushing over its last two games, including 71 on 37 carries by the Trojans.

IOWA STATE (2-1, 0-0): The Cyclones are a 44-41 overtime loss to Iowa away from a 3-0 start, opening the season with a 42-24 home victory over Northern Iowa and winning at Akron 41-14 on Sept. 16. Junior quarterback Jacob Park ranks 14th in the NCAA in passing (311.7 yards) and has four 300-yard passing games in six career starts. A big reason for that is senior wide receiver Allen Lazard, a preseason All-American who has 19 receptions for 178 yards and three touchdowns and is the active NCAA career leader in consecutive games with a reception (38).

EXTRA POINTS

1. Herman was Iowa State's offensive coordinator from 2009-11 and helped guide the Cyclones to a pair of bowl games.

2. Texas is 16-5 all-time in Big 12 openers while Iowa State is 5-16.

3. Iowa State leads the Big 12 and ranks sixth nationally with 26 tackles for loss, an average of 8.7 per game.

PREDICTION: Texas 31, Iowa State 24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Texas at Iowa State

ATS Trends

Texas

Longhorns are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Longhorns are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Longhorns are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Longhorns are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Longhorns are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

Iowa State

Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Cyclones are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Cyclones are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

OU Trends

Texas

Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 road games. Under is 5-0 in Longhorns last 5 games following a straight up loss. Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 9-1 in Longhorns last 10 games overall. Under is 8-1 in Longhorns last 9 games on grass. Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 9-2 in Longhorns last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 11-3 in Longhorns last 14 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 20-6 in Longhorns last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 25-9 in Longhorns last 34 conference games. Under is 19-7 in Longhorns last 26 games following a ATS win. Under is 20-8 in Longhorns last 28 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Iowa State

Over is 6-0-1 in Cyclones last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 10-0-1 in Cyclones last 11 games following a straight up win. Over is 5-0-1 in Cyclones last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Over is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 home games. Over is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 games on grass. Over is 5-1 in Cyclones last 6 games overall. Over is 5-1 in Cyclones last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Cyclones last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 games in September. Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 conference games. Under is 19-7 in Cyclones last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 16-6-2 in Cyclones last 24 games following a ATS win. Over is 10-4 in Cyclones last 14 games following a bye week. Over is 5-2 in Cyclones last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Head to Head

• Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 28

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CHICAGO (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 1) - 9/28/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 182-128 ATS (+41.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, September 28

9:25 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Green Bay's last 10 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 28

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TEXAS (1 - 2) at IOWA ST (2 - 1) - 9/28/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
IOWA ST is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 4

Thursday’s game
Texas is 11-2 in its last 13 games with Iowa State, but covered only one of last four meetings; Longhorns are 5-1 in last six visits to Ames, losing 24-0 in last trip here, in ’15. Longhorns lost last game in OT at USC two weeks ago; they gave up a combined 950 yards in losses to USC, Maryland- they crushed San Jose St 56-0 in between. Cyclones are 5-1 as a home underdog under Campbell; they covered only home game, this year, losing 44-41 at home to rival Iowa (+3.5) two weeks ago. Iowa State scored 41 points in splitting its two I-A games this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 5:13 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $62,500.00 OPTIONAL CLAIMING $80,000.00 PURSE

#5 GOING FOR BROKE
#3 GIRL TALK
#1 SMILE BIG
#7 LITERATA

#5 GOING FOR BROKE is the overall speed leader in this O.C. field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in four of her last five outings, hitting the board in three of those four efforts. Jockey Javier Castellano and Trainer Chard Brown send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 57% of more than 250 entries saddled as a team to date. #3 GIRL TALK, a 4-1 shot, also has a nice pace profile, and has hit the board in each of her four career starts to date, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $51000 Class Rating: 85

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 TIGER LISA 6/1

# 8 WINE HALO 4/1

# 5 SHANGHAI TARIFF 5/1

I lean toward TIGER LISA here. This filly could improve with second time Lasix. With Bridgmohan controlling the reins on her, this filly will most likely be able to break out quickly for this event. Has been travelling in the most competitive company of the group recently. WINE HALO - Her earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone makes you take a look at her. May best this field here, showing very good figures of late. SHANGHAI TARIFF - Will likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the halfway point of the race. Has the appearance of a lucrative wager.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24500 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 STRONG LIKE BULL 5/2

# 2 JUDGE MONEY 8/1

# 7 TOSS THE TUB 10/1

I like STRONG LIKE BULL here. Will most likely compete solidly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group. Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 85 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the strongest in this field. Has been close at the finishing post most every time recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park

Delaware Park - Race 8

Daily Double (Races 8-9) / Exacta / Trifecta (50-cent. min.) Superfecta (10-cent min.)


Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $25,000 • Post: 4:45P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 28, 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FIVE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 3 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR WAIVER CLAIMING $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES.).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * DR. TOOLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SOCIAL STRANGER: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. ROYAL MARINE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. MONKEY'S MEDAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NATIVE HAWK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 d ays.
4
DR. TOOLE
5/2

5/1
6
SOCIAL STRANGER
7/2

6/1
3
ROYAL MARINE
6/1

7/1
1
MONKEY'S MEDAL
9/5

8/1
2
NATIVE HAWK
8/1

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:43pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,300 Class Rating: 53

Rating: 3

#3 MARILYN'S PASSION (ML=7/2)
#1 HOOF HOOF AWAY (ML=2/1)
#2 INHERENT VALUE (ML=3/1)


MARILYN'S PASSION - This equine has the pace, and no one may be able to keep up with her. This horse didn't run well on a sloppy track in her last race at Penn National. You probably should overlook that effort. HOOF HOOF AWAY - When this jock and handler unite you have to take a look. Munar and Bobadilla have been great together. INHERENT VALUE - Ran in the last race against better company at Penn National. The move down in class ranks should suit her well. A repeat of that recent performance on December 2nd where she earned a rating of 46 looks high enough to win in this affair. Another way to assign class is earnings per start (EPS). This animal has the top in the bunch. I think she'll be close at the finish. I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the 2nd time. This one fits the bill. Recent speed figures show dominant pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FREEDOM AND PRIDE (ML=5/1), #5 MELISSA'S GAL (ML=6/1),

FREEDOM AND PRIDE - This horse hasn't been close at the finish line recently. This filly notched a speed fig in her last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's race. MELISSA'S GAL - This animal doesn't win here at Penn National. She needs some different venue to show her best. This thoroughbred hasn't shown much in the last pair of affairs.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #3 MARILYN'S PASSION on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:30pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: 3

#2 MEOW (ML=3/1)
#7 CITRINE HARBOR (ML=7/2)
#4 GOOD SALLY (ML=6/1)


MEOW - When this jockey and trainer team up you have to take a look. Garcia and Delacour have been terrific together. CITRINE HARBOR - A campaigner coming back this soon after a strong race is a good sign. Ranks at the top in earnings per start (EPS). A powerful try in this field can add to the lifetime bankroll. GOOD SALLY - Ran in the last race against much better company at Presque Isle Downs. The move down the class ladder should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DRIVER'S GIRL (ML=5/2), #1A TEAM HALO (ML=6/1), #1 LAUGHS N KISSES (ML=6/1),

DRIVER'S GIRL - No value in wagering on this racer. Probably won't improve off that September 10th race. TEAM HALO - This mare gave a lackluster effort last time out. This vulnerable equine ran a run-of-the-mill speed fig last out. She shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's event running that figure. LAUGHS N KISSES - When checking today's Equibase class figure, she will have to earn a better speed figure than last time out to be competitive in this dirt route.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 MEOW to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6