Thursday 9-28-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Sep 28 '17, 7:05 PM

MLB | Rays vs Yankees
Play on: Yankees -1½ +110 at betonline

10* FREE MLB PICK (Yankees -1.5, +110)
We cashed in on the Yankees run line Wednesday in a comfortable 6-1 win at home over the Rays an I'll fire right back with New York on the run line Thursday for a lot of the same reasons we backed them yesterday. Tampa Bay was eliminated from playoff contention on Tuesday and are going to find it hard to get up here, as all they can do is maybe keep the Yankees from winning the division, as they already clinched the top Wild Card. New York is playing relaxed and are swinging the bats well. They also have another strong starter on the mound with Sonny Gray, who allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in his last outing and has been one of the better AL pitchers in the 2nd half. Tampa counters with Jacob Faria, who has given up 8 runs on 12 hits in his last 2 starts (11 1/3 innings) and did not throw well in his lone start against New York this season. Give me the Yankees -1.5 (+110)!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Sep 28 '17, 7:10 PM

MLB | Braves vs Marlins
Play on: Braves +101 at BMaker

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Atlanta Braves +101

The Atlanta Braves have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Miami Marlins and shouldn't be underdogs as a result. We'll back the Braves here at a nice value as they try and close out their season strong.

Julio Teheran has had some of the most surprising home/road splits this season. He has been terrible at home, but dominant on the road, going 8-2 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 14 road starts this year. He is also 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last three starts overall. He pitched 6 shutout innings in his last start at Miami and owns a 3.25 ERA in 16 career starts against the Marlins.

Dillon Peters has been consistently rocked in limited action this season. He is still looking for his first win, going 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.753 WHIP in five starts this year. He has allowed a whopping 13 earned runs over 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

The Braves are 9-3 in Teheran's last 12 road starts. Atlanta is 7-1 in Teheran's last eight road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Marlins are 8-21 in their last 29 games overall. Miami is 1-4 in Peters' last five starts. Bet the Braves Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin

Sep 28 '17, 7:10 PM

MLB | Astros vs Red Sox
Play on: Astros -104 at BMaker

#MLB FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Houston Astros have opened the week by outscoring the Texas Rangers 37-7 during a three-game sweep, and I like the price we get on Houston here at Fenway Park Thursday night.
Brad Peacock (12-2, 2.98 ERA) will take the ball for the Astros. He's 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA in three career starts against the Red Sox, but this will be the first meeting of the season and he's without a doubt having his best year ever. Note that Peacock is 7-0 behind a 2.83 ERA in 16 appearances (11 starts) on the road this season.
The Red Sox hand the ball to left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (6-6, 3.91 ERA) who's having a terrific month with just six runs allowed in four starts covering 25 1/3 innings. The Astros are in the zone right now though, and I think they'll be too much to handle for the left-hander tonight.
The Astros defeated Texas 12-2 on Wednesday and they are 7-1 in their last eight after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.
My free pick is on Houston Astros.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Karpinski

Sep 28 '17, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -153 at betonline

Brett Suter is a tough lefty who has slowly built his pitch count since a stint on the disabled list for a rotator cuff strain, most recently working 5 1/3 innings against the Cubs on Saturday. He has a 3.31 ERA in his 13 starts and I like him to get the win in his final start of the season on Thursday afternoon after the Brewers were shutout last night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Sep 28 '17, 7:10 PM

MLB | HOU vs BOS
Play on: OVER 9 -110

The Houston Astros bats are on fire and have put 37 runs up on the board in their L/3 after a 3 game sweep of Texas and enter this game on a roll and will be hard to control tonight by Boston's Starting hurler Rodriguez (6-6,391 ERA). Meanwhile, the Astros starter Peacock despite of a 12-2 record and 2.98 ERA on the season has struggled in the past vs the BoSox offense , recording a 0-2 record along with a bloated 12.38 ERA in his three career starts against them, and 0-1 along with 11.74 era in two starts at Fenway Park. I'm betting both these capable offenses do some damage tonight and help us eclipse the beatable Total.
The Astros are 15-4 over after a 5 game span where they have hit .333 or better with a combined average of 12.4 rpg scored. Houston is 9-0 over off three straight divisional wins dating back to last season with a combined average of 15.1 rpg scored. Boston scored 10-7 win last time out, and are 14-4 OVER after scoring more than 10 runs or more with a combined average of 13.3 rpg getting scored.
Play OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Sep 28 '17, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -152 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Brewers -152

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Sep 28 '17, 7:05 PM

MLB | Rays vs Yankees
Play on: Rays +182 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Tampa Bay Rays +182

The Yankees are realizing they're not going to catch the Red Sox. At three games back with only four games to play, they would need to win out and have the Red Sox lose out. Neither are likely to happen. So I don't think the Yankees should be this heavily favored given their mental state right now. And this starting pitching matchup is almost dead even. Jacob Faria is 5-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 13 starts for the Rays, while Sonny Gray is 10-11 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 26 starts for the Yankees. The Rays may not win, but I can't pass up this price given the situation and pitching matchup. Give me Tampa Bay.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Sep 28 '17, 8:15 PM in 5h
MLB | DET vs KC
Play on: OVER 8½ -115

1* on Tigers vs Royals over 8½ -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Sep 28 '17, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | TAM vs NYY
Play on: OVER 8½ -110

1* Free Play on Rays vs Yankees over 8½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, September 28


Cincinnati @ Milwaukee

Game 951-952
September 28, 2017 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(Romano) 15.445
Milwaukee
(Suter) 13.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-155
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+135); Under

Pittsburgh @ Washington

Game 953-954
September 28, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
(Nova) 14.775
Washington
(Jackson) 15.661
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-140
9
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-140); Under

Atlanta @ Miami

Game 955-956
September 28, 2017 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Teheran) 14.538
Miami
(Peters) 11.585
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 3
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
-115
9
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-105); Over

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis

Game 957-958
September 28, 2017 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Hendrcks) 16.793
St. Louis
(Lynn) 14.692
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-200
8
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(+170); Over

Minnesota @ Cleveland

Game 959-960
September 28, 2017 @ 12:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Santana) 16.305
Cleveland
(Carrasco) 17.415
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
-280
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-280); Over

Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees

Game 961-962
September 28, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Faria) 15.589
NY Yankees
(Gray) 18.003
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-190
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-190); Over

Houston @ Boston

Game 963-964
September 28, 2017 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Peacock) 15.866
Boston
(Rodriguez) 18.953
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-115
9
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-115); Under

Oakland @ Texas

Game 965-966
September 28, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
(Manaea) 14.725
Texas
(Gonzalez) 15.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-115
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(-105); Under

LA Angels @ Chicago White Sox

Game 967-968
September 28, 2017 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Norris) 14.627
Chicago White Sox
(Covey) 16.591
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago White Sox
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Angels
-115
10
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago White Sox
(-105); Over

Detroit @ Kansas City

Game 969-970
September 28, 2017 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Norris) 13.223
Kansas City
(Duffy) 15.358
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
-200
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-200); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Daily Line Drive: Thursday's picks, betting odds and analysis

Double-Play Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 9.5)

The Reds and Brewers wrap up their three-game series this afternoon at Miller Park in Milwaukee. The teams have split the first two games and the Brewers' playoff hopes are clinging to the thinnest of threads.

Despite winning 6-0 last night, the Reds can't be trusted to play proper spoiler on the Rockies behalf. Prior to their win on Wednesday they had lost seven baseball games in a row and they will send rookie right-hander Sal Romano to the mound today.

Romano's last start was a disappointing five earned runs allowed over four innings of work in a 5-4 loss at home against the Red Sox. And in his last start against the Brewers (Aug 13 at Miller Park) he allowed seven runs over five innings of work in an eventual 7-4 loss.

The Brewers will counter with lefty Brent Suter. He has been very good, especially during the month of September where he has made five appearances (four starts and one relief) and owns an ERA of 1.56 and a WHIP of 1.2115. Dating back to August the Brewers have won Suter's last five starts overall.

Desperation is a great motivator in sports, and the Brewers are certainly desperate today with the Rockies' magic number now down to two.

Pick: Brewers -155

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (-110, 9)

The Braves and Marlins close out their respective disappointing seasons with a four-game set beginning Thursday night in Miami.

Neither Atlanta nor Miami were able to take a step forward in the National League East like they hoped to this season, with the Marlins sitting at 74-84 on the season and 21 games behind the division leading Nationals, while the Braves are 71-87 and 24 games back.

The NL East rivals open this season-ending series with Julio Teheran taking the mound for the Braves, while the Marlins counter with Dillon Peters.

It has been an interesting year of interesting splits for the Braves’ Teheran, who is 11-12 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP this season, but he hasn’t really enjoyed playing in the team’s new stadium, Sun Trust Park. However, Teheran has been excellent on the road, going 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

Meanwhile, it hasn’t been the easiest transition to the big leagues for the Marlins’ rookie Peters. The young southpaw is 0-2 in the first five starts of his career, pitching to a 6.31 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He’s been even more roughed up in his last three outings, going 0-1 with a 9.88 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP while walking more batters than he has struck out.

The only thing to cheer for in Marlins games recently is whether or not Gancarlo Stanton will hit 60 dingers.

Pick: Braves -110

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 158-144-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Brad Peacock, Houston Astros (12-2, 2.98 ERA, $324)

Very slim pickings for our Streaking Starter section today. Julio Teheran would likely have claimed the award, but we used him above in our Double-Play Picks.

Instead of Teheran we will go with Houston's Brad Peacock. The veteran utility right-hander is having a tremendous season for the Astros at 12-2 with a 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20. Things have been even better for him on the road where he owns a personal win/loss record of 7-0 with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.14.

Peacock and the Astros are slight road underdogs at -102 at Fenway Park against Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox.

Slumping: Edwin Jackson, Washington Nationals (5-6, 5.40 ERA, $-261)

As the Nationals begin to get their roster set up for their upcoming NLDS series against the Cubs, you can be pretty sure that Edwin Jackson will not be a part of their starting rotation.

A team win/loss of 5-7, an ERA of 5.40, and a WHIP of 1.45 in 12 starts with Washington is not very good. A team win/loss of 0-3, an ERA of 15.68, and a WHIP of 2.71 in his last three starts is, pretty much, as bad as it gets.

Jackson and the Nats are -145 home favorites against Ivan Nova and the Pirates today.

Thursday's Top Trends

* The Cleveland Indians are 30-3 in their last 33 overall. -260 today vs. Twins.
* The New York Yankees are 11-1 in their last 12 home games. -200 today vs. Rays.
* Under is 35-15-2 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 52 starts overall. Astros/Red Sox Total: 9.
* The Detroit Tigers are 5-24 in their last 29 vs. American League Central. +182 today at Royals.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Rain will not be a factor at any MLB ballpark without a roof today, but there will be wind. Here are the most notable breezes in the forecast for today:

Twins @ Indians (Total: 8.5) - 13-15 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left-center field.
Rays @ Yankees (Total: 8.5) - 13-15 mile per hour crosswind blowing from left field to right field.
Pirates @ Nationals (Total: 9) - 11-14 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
Astros @ Red Sox (Total: 9) - 13-14 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
Athletics @ Rangers (Total: 10.5) - 9-11 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right field.

[New York Knight]

Julio Teheran is 8-2, 2.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP on the road this season.

Last 3 roadies: 2-0, 0.44 ERA, 1.06 WHIP.


ATL +100 / MIA -110

[New York Knight]

Vegas Gambling Steam ...

MLB Public % (Top 5) Bets

Angels -113 66%
Pirates +108 63%
Astros -108 61%


MLB: 23-12 Last 7 Days

[New York Knight]

OVER 8-2-1 Tigers' last 11, 4-0 Norris' last 4 vs KC & 14-3-2 Norris' last 19 road starts.

OVER 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 @ home vs DET.


Total: 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Braves -105

Both teams are making reservations for the golf course in a few days, but the clear pitching edge goes to Julio Teheran and it’s not even close. Teheran has struggled this year, but is finishing strong. Peters has been roughed up in his short work this year and at this price I will go with the more established pitcher.