Friday 9-29-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mr Profits Picks

NCAA Football MIAMI (FL) HURRICANES ‑3 ‑160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports

Friday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Milwaukee - 130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Friday Selection

Milwaukee w/Anderson +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Kenny Towers

Duke + 6.5 - NCAAF -

[Tx_Hockey_Capper]

Tx_Hockey_Capper

NHL
1* New York Islanders +115
1* Toronto Maple Leafs / Detroit Red Wins over 5.5 -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Preview: Lynx (27-7) at Sparks (26-8)
Date: September 29, 2017 9:00 PM EDT

The 2017 WNBA Finals head into Game 3 of a contentious battle between Los Angeles and the Minnesota Lynx as the Sparks play host for the first time in the series on Friday at Staples Center in downtown Los Angeles.

The best-of-five series is tied 1-1.

In Game 1 on Sunday night in Williams Arena, the Sparks narrowly prevailed 85-84 after giving up a first quarter lead of 28-2.

On Monday, the Lynx battled back for a tight 70-68 victory after earlier having a 20-point lead.

With both teams so equally matched, the outcome of Game 3 is anything but a given and both teams will be battling hard in the first quarter to establish dominance.

"It'll be a test of wills," Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve said.

Earlier in the week, she had harsh words for her team after falling behind in the first eight minutes of Sunday's game, a correction they made in Game 2 when they were ahead by 15 points in the first eight minutes.

"Each team is trying to establish themselves early," Reeve said. "It's a possession game. You've got play hard. You've got to play with passion in everything that you're doing, and we didn't do that in Game 1."

Sparks star Candace Parker said much the same about her team's game plan for Game 3.

"It's having a sense of urgency," said the two-time WNBA MVP. "Who started out with the first punch? We were able to work our way back into Game 2 and they were able to work their way back into Game 1 but it's starting out with a sense of urgency."

Starting strong is key for the Sparks. It's about, she said, "whoever is dictating the game."

That much was noticeable in Game 2 as the Sparks' slow start meant they shot 28 percent in the first two quarters.

"If we're hesitant," Parker said, "it affects us."

The games so far have been marked by intense, physical battles.

"It is intense," said Sylvia Fowles, who set a WNBA Finals record of 17 rebounds for the Lynx in Game 2, breaking an earlier record set in 2005. "That's what it comes down to. A lot of physicality."

Both teams, she said, are gritty. "That's what you expect," Fowles said, "You see a lot of similarities in both teams."

The battle will continue at Staples Center, where both teams are preparing for another intense match up, with both agreeing home court advantage has almost no meaning in a series so evenly matched.

"If you look at last year's series," Sparks coach Brian Agler said, "this year, head-to-head, last year head-to-head, we won on each other's court. So I don't know how much home court means."

What it comes down to was summed up by Reeve in one word: "Talent."

"That's what makes it so good," Reeve said. "There's really, really good players on both teams. That's what you see."


WNBA HEAD TO HEAD

Sep 26, 2017 Score ATS Results
LOS 68 Cover: 5
MIN « 70 Under: 138
Tools: Recaps

Sep 24, 2017 Score ATS Results
LOS « 85 Cover: 6.5
MIN 84 Over: 169
Tools: Recaps

Aug 27, 2017 Score ATS Results
MIN 67 Under: 145
LOS « 78 Cover: 8.5
Tools: Recaps

Aug 11, 2017 Score ATS Results
LOS « 70 Cover: 12
MIN 64 Under: 134
Tools: Recaps

Jul 6, 2017 Score ATS Results
LOS 77 Under: 165
MIN « 88 Cover: 4.5
Tools: Recaps

Oct 20, 2016 Score ATS Results
LOS « 77 Cover: 6.5
MIN 76 Under: 153
Tools: Recaps

Oct 16, 2016 Score ATS Results
MIN « 85 Cover: 7
LOS 79 Over: 164
Tools: Recaps

Oct 14, 2016 Score ATS Results
MIN 75 Over: 167
LOS « 92 Cover: 16
Tools: Recaps

Oct 11, 2016 Score ATS Results
LOS 60 Under: 139
MIN « 79 Cover: 12
Tools: Recaps

Oct 9, 2016 Score ATS Results
LOS « 78 Cover: 8.5
MIN 76 Under: 154
Tools: Recaps

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

NEBRASKA AT ILLINOIS
PLAY: ILLINOIS +6.5

Nebraska has been a big moneymaker thus far for anyone willing to fade the Cornhuskers. The team stands 2-2 straight up, but only 1-3 ATS. The one spread win was thanks to a strong second half comeback that got the Huskers inside the number in the loss to Oregon.

The big issue for Nebraska has been QB Tanner Lee, who continues to be a turnover machine. Nine picks in four games is alarmingly bad. It’s kind of weird, as Lee has the ability to make all the throws, but he just can’t seem to avoid critical mistakes. Until this situation gets rectified, Nebraska will continue to have problems winning games, let alone covering spreads as chalk.

Illinois isn’t very good, so it’s not like they’re a team likely to inspire much confidence. The Illini are 2-1. But they were very fortunate to slip past Ball State, the win over Western Kentucky was not particularly impressive and they were blown out at South Florida after hanging in early against the Bulls.

Aside from running back Mike Epstein, who has been very solid in the early going, there’s very little in the way of star power on this team. Head coach Lovie Smith is going to have to find a way to attract some better talent to this school, or the Illinois run of mediocrity will be maintained moving forward.

But for all their flaws, the Illini might be in better shape than Nebraska at thus point. The general consensus is that Mile Riley is a lame duck coach barring a sudden turnaround in the Cornhusker fortunes. The rumor mill is already churning with current UCF head coach and ex-Nebraska QB Scott Frost being the hot name. Former LSU mentor Les Miles has also been mentioned in connection with this job should it open.

This is basically just a continuation of a fade Nebraska routine. If they break through and get a good win, maybe it’ll be time to get away from playing against them. But until that time, grabbing points against the Huskers still makes sense. I’d look to side with Illinois on Friday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

Illinois / Nebraska Under 47.5

Who is going to score here? A Nebraska team that scored 17 points against NIU or 27 points against Rutgers? Or an Illinois team headed by Lovie Smith that scored 20 points against Western Kentucky and is rated the 120th offense in the nation? For starters, Nebraska's strongest suit is their defense, and they have become as inconsistent as ever on offense. And with the AD being recently fired, that is sending a clear message that this team needs to shape up and they will do what they do well or will do what they do well better - which is defense. Combine that with Lovie Smith being a defensive-minded coach who just gave up 40+ points on the road to South Florida on national television, and what you will see here is likely a low-scoring, ball-control affair which is why the spread is so low at just 6 points. Look for points to be a premium here as this game likely goes under the posted total and also a decent public fade here as well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson

USC vs. Washington St
Play: USC -3½

USC has looked shaky in 3 of 4 games so far....the opener vs. Western Michigan, the Texas game and last week in Berkeley. Trojans played solid game vs. Stanford in week 2 and Wazzu has really not looked great against anyone of quality. Nevada is horrendous, Oregon State may win 2 games this season, FCS opponent Montana State and a double OT win that Boise State gift wrapped after blowing a 21 point lead in 4th quarter. This is their 5th straight home game and when they take to the road, this team will get lit up.

Their running game hasn't amounted to much yet and Falk was actually pulled and benched in Boise State game. Martin is a speedster at wide out but Craycraft & Marks were great route runners and possession receivers and they are gone. The biggest loss for Wazzu is their MLB- Peyton Pelleur. This guy was their QB on defense. Last season he had 93 tackles- 21 more than anyone else on the team. They still have a great leader on the D-Line in Hercules Mata'afa and he could help neutralize Darnold if he gets some help. SC played last week without three starters including senior RB Ronald Jones who together with freshman Stephen Carr are a dynamic 1-2 punch. I know freaky things happen in Pullman but the Trojans are already there getting acclimated to the conditions.

If the Cougs get out of the gate quickly and Falk gets in a rhythm then Washington State can definitely win this Friday Night late game. If they struggle early on offense with a few 3 and outs, SC could open things up. Because I'm a USC backer for 4 decades, I didn't want to sell this one due to people thinking I'm biased so it's a FREE opinion. I bet against SC in the opener vs. Western Michigan plus 28 and got that one easily so I'm not opposed to going against my heart in a good spot. I actually circled Wazzu at the beginning of the season in this one but Falk's crummy performance vs Boise State and the loss of Pelleur are reasons I reversed my field in this one!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

TEXAS VS. IOWA STATE
PLAY: IOWA STATE +4.5

If you’re into technical analysis, Iowa State would stand out as a pretty strong side tonight as the Cyclones play host to Texas. I’m not much of a trend player, so the attractive angle numbers that apply to this evening’s game weren’t enough to get me to the wagering window. Close, but no cigar as far as that goes.

I certainly lean to the home dog here. Iowa State is looking like a competitive entry this season in the Big 12. That might not translate into outright wins, but I do feel this edition of the Cyclones is not going to be a pushover for most of their conference brethren.

Texas is clearly better now than they were at the start of the season. If they were to replay Maryland, I’m quite sure we’d see a dramatically different result than was the case when the schools met back in Week One.

That’s really the big stumbling block for me tonight. I know the Longhorns are improving, but I’m not convinced they’re ready to be spotting points on the road to a fired up home dog that might be better than most fans think. I’m particularly impressed with QB Jacob Park’s efficiency and David Montgomery is doing some very solid work at running back.

My projection for this game has Texas -4, so it’s just a very slight edge with the line where it is now sitting. +6.5 with Iowa State was previously available. Not anymore, as the consensus line as I’nm writing this is Longhorns -4.5. Factor in the technical data that points to Iowa State, and the Cyclones are the side I see as more likely to cover in what has a chance to be a very entertaining football game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

Atlanta vs. Miami
Pick: Miami -146

RHP Dan Straily would almost certainly love to know where he's going to call home during the 2018 MLB season. The Marlins are Straily's fifth team in the last four seasons and if he can win his final start tonight, he would have put together back-to-back winning seasons. Perhaps more importantly in terms of securing a contract for next season, Straily seems to have demonstrated that he can stay healthy. Tonight will be his 33rd start of 2017 and when you add that to the 31 he had last season, it makes for a pretty durable player the last two years. Straily's ERA is slightly higher this season, but many of his other stats have trended in the right direction, including his strikeout and walk rates. Straily can definitely end the season on a high note as he'll be facing a team that he's gone 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in four starts covering 22 innings against this season. Those are the best numbers for any opponent that Straily has faced on multiple occasions in 2017. The Braves are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. teams with a losing record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Oakland vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -117

The Oakland A's may be just 74-85 on the season but they enter the final weekend of the regular season with 16 wins over their last 21 games. In stark contrast, after losing 4-1 at home to the A's last night, Texas is looking to put an end to a season-high seven-game skid in which it has been outscored 49-9 in the last five contests. Making the challenge even tougher is the fact that the A's have won SEVEN straight against the Rangers!

Raul Alcantara (1-1, 6.86 ERA) will take the mound for Oakland, opposed by Martin Perez (12-12, 4.83 ERA) of Texas. Alcantara turned in his second straight strong start on Saturday, scattering two hits over five scoreless innings in a 1-0 victory versus Texas. "The command of the fastball is better," manager Bob Melvin said of Alcantara. "It looks to me like his split and slider are better, and he's pitching with a lot more confidence. It's good to see." Alcantara is making his third straight spot start, this time as a fill-in for fellow right-hander Jharel Cotton, who has been shut down after dealing with right elbow soreness.

Perez had ripped off seven straight wins from 8/9 through 9/8 but has gone 0-2 with a 4.96 ERA in his last three starts (team is 1-2), including a five-run effort in an 8-1 loss to Oakland this past Sunday. Perez owns a 1-2 mark with a 5.93 ERA in three starts this season versus the Athletics, giving him a 6-7 career record with a 5.29 ERA over starts (Rangers are 8-7). Perez will make his final start of the season Friday against and it's be announced that he will have the option for his contract next season picked up, as Texas will pay him $6 million in 2018 (gotta love it!).

Alcantara is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA this month (four appearances / two starts). He has made four career starts against Texas and is 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA in those games, including 1-1 with a 10.29 ERA against Rangers in two starts in 2017. I'm going with the veteran Perez, as Texas snaps its slide.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

ILLINOIS +197 over Nebraska

We haven’t seen Illinois take the field in two weeks but the last glimpse many had of the Illini was the USF Bulls torching them in Tampa for 47 points in a nationally televised Friday night game. That loss was ugly as can be while Nebraska won last week. These results conjure up preconceived notions. Overall, the Huskers were projected to have more of a ceiling in 2017 compared to Illinois, who took steps backward in 2016. Nebraska won nine games in 2016 while Illinois lost two more games in 2016 than it did in 2015. The Cornhuskers are expected to go bowling while Illinois is forecasted to stay home yet again. We now get to take advantage of some of things that influence the market. You see, Nebraska has benefitted from eating cupcakes more than actually being a good football team.

The Huskers began their season with a 43-36 win against Arkansas State in Lincoln. The Red Wolves were able to generate 415 passing yards and outperform Nebraska in total offense. However, Arkansas State would commit two costly mistakes and that would be the ultimate decider of the affair. Nebraska was very lucky to escape victorious. The Huskers would follow that win up with two consecutive losses against Oregon and Northern Illinois. Against Oregon, Nebraska would be torched for 566 yards of offense in a game that was far less competitive than the score-line depicts be that they trailed by as much as 28 before the Quack Attack let off the gas. On paper, a 42-35 loss to Oregon in Eugene does not look bad at all. We’re here to tell you that Nebraska was horrible.

Against Northern Illinois, the ‘Huskers defense would finally show up but the offense would turn the ball over three times and the Huskies would seize the opportunity to pull the upset. Nebraska seemed to finally get its act together against Rutgers at home last week, but again the score was also not indicative of how the game was played. Nebraska did not nose away until the final stages of the fourth quarter on a field goal in the last five minutes that gave Nebraska the 10-point margin it would win by. For most of the game, the Scarlet Knights hung with the Cornhuskers every step of the way and even led at one point. It is worth noting that Rutgers went winless against the Big Ten in 2016 and they have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent in 2017.

By contrast, Illinois comes in “free-rolling”. With such low expectations, the Illini will treat every contest with a “nothing to lose” mentality. Teams of this pedigree can be exceptionally dangerous and the Illini already took advantage of this when they hosted a Western Kentucky team that was spotting them a touchdown in Champaign three weeks ago. Illinois would win the game 20-7, as Western Kentucky was caught scratching the target on its back from being a two-time defending conference champion. Illinois also has a victory over Ball State to open its season.

In summarizing, the Cornhuskers are 2-2 with narrow victories at home over both over Arkansas State (43-36) and Rutgers (27-17). They could just as easily be 0-4. Nebraska’s success, if you want to call it that, has been fueled by a weak schedule, some timely breaks and unsustainable luck field position. Against weak competition, Nebraska was neither dominant nor reliable. Hop off this Nebraska train immediately, as this team is about to sink quickly and it likely starts with a loss to the Illini. Thus, we’re playing Illinois to win outright and Illinois to cover the number.

WASHINGTON ST +6 over USC

There is no question that the Trojans have played the tougher schedule this season. USC has already faced Western Michigan, Stanford, Texas and a much improved Cal squad while Washington State has faced Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada. Oregon State and Nevada are two of the worst defensive clubs in Division I and Wazzu torched them both. While we have our reservations about getting behind a team that plays a weak schedule, we have to put that aside here for several reasons. You see, the Trojans come in with their #5 high ranking and what that means is that one must pay an inflated priced to back them in a nationally televised game. Not only are the Trojans ranked highly but their QB, Sam Darnold, is getting a massive amount of press, which also inflates the price on the Trojans. Sam Darnold really is as good as they say he is. He’ll make throws that will make you go WOW. However, the line protecting him is weak, which results in Darnold having to get rid of the ball sooner than he would like to. That in turn has led to USC turnovers every week.

Sam Darnold can and has done it on his own. However, playing on the road against a very explosive offense changes the dynamics. USC has been home for three games with its only road game occurring at Cal last week. The Trojans would go onto a 30-20 victory but Cal, as a 17-point dog, had that game tied at the half and tied going into the fourth quarter. None of USC’s victories this year have been easy. It took the Trojans double OT to sneak by Texas last week and they couldn’t put Stanford or Western Michigan away until the fourth quarter but the market will largely ignore the danger signs associated with spotting significant road points with this flawed favorite.

What you may read about is how nearly every game between these two – regardless of the time, the date, the place or the tint of the jerseys worn that day – has gone awry for the Cougars. USC has won 87 percent (59 of 68) of the ones that didn’t end in a tie and minus blips in 2013, 2002 and 2000, the Trojans have won every game played between these two this millennium. Most haven’t been particularly close, either. The last five USC victories: 44-17 in 2014, 50-16 in 2010, 27-6 in 2009, 69-0 in 2008 and 47-14 in 2007. We couldn’t care less, as useless trends also influence the market. A result in 2009 has zero impact on this one.

Fact is, this USC team hasn’t yet been tested in front of a tough road crowd (sorry, Golden Bears) and the Trojans also haven’t left the state of California for a game since Week 10 last season. It’s a short week for both, but in theory that’s always tougher on the team that’s traveling – and no road trip in the Pac-12 is more awkward than the one to Pullman. The Trojans have a knack for slow starts while the Cougars have a knack for starting fast. USC’s QB has thrown seven picks, Wazzu’s has thrown one.

Even though State hasn’t been tested, maybe they’re really good. What we know for sure is that turnovers are the biggest deciding factor in which team covers the number and we already discussed why the Trojans are turning it over. With the way Darnold is running for his life every week, it would be unreasonable not to expect one or more turnovers again this week from the Men of Troy. Washington State has to be sick of being the Trojans whipping boy for years but now Mike Leach brings his best chance to win this game since he’s been here. Wazzu is a well-coached but mostly overlooked team with a chance to make some noise at the end of September. The Cougars are moving off a well-timed easy win over Nevada into the most unforgiving portion of the schedule. On the balance this bunch is a legitimate threat to dislodge USC from its customary superior position over them, we’re taking the inflated points for sure while the hype train is still rolling on USC. Sam Darnold is great but USC is not.

Pass MLB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TJ PEMBERTON

Nebraska vs. Illinois
Play: Nebraska -6

The Nebraska Cornhuskers roll into Illinois to take on the Fighting Illini. Nebraska is 2-2 on the season but have covered the spread in just one game this season. The Cornhuskers beat Rutgers on the road last week and have some momentum even on this short week. Nebraska beat the Fight Illini 31-16 last season. QB Tanner Lee continues to throw interceptions. Lee passed for 109 yards in last weeks win with two touchdowns but had two interceptions. RB Devine Ozigbo had a nice game which opened things up for this offense. Ozigbo had 101 yards on 24 carries. Nebraska is listed a touchdown road favorite in this one. Illinois showed better play on their home field this season but welcome in a tough Nebraska team. Expect both teams to have turnovers but the Cornhuskers defense will be more solid and have better play makers on offense

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

SOUTHERN CAL (-5) over Washington State

Cougars are talented, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but this is a big step up for Washington State. They have feasted on weaklings Montana State, Oregon State and Nevada and squeaked by a subpar Boise State team by 3 in overtime. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 4-0 having crushed Stanford and beaten Texas & Cal. Southern Cal is as talented as any team in the nation and tonight they show it on national TV. The visitor has covered 5 straight in this series and tonight USC makes it 6. Take the Trojans!