Sunday 10-1-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 4 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-4)

Has a team ever stayed in the locker room for the national anthem and then decided not to come out for the game? It may be getting close to that point for the 0-3 Giants, who had hopes of making the NFC East into a two-team race with the Cowboys and now are rotting at the bottom of the division.

The main problem for the Giants is that they can’t score (fewest points in the conference), and the main problem for the offense it that it can’t move the ball on the ground. At all. New York broke out with 24 points in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia on Sunday, but had scored only 13 total in the previous 11 periods.

An 0-3 hole is bad enough, but 0-4 is toxic for a team that was thinking division title less than a month ago.

Game to wait on

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+2.5)

Seems like every game these teams have played for the last decade has featured a line in the 2.5 to 3.5-point range. This one is no different.

Neither team has shown enough to be considered the early favorite to be the alpha dog in the AFC North, and the Ravens in particular are wondering what hit them in London last Sunday when the Jags put a 37-point beating on them. Baltimore is not that used to those types of beatdowns. Ravens fans have to be wondering what the heck is going on with Joe Flacco, who threw for just 28 yards on Sunday and was picked twice before giving way to Ryan Mallett.

Maybe the Ravens will be able to run the ball against the Steelers’ shaky defense, which gave up 220 of their own on the ground in losing to the Bears.

Might be worth waiting on this one to see if any early money surge causes the books to budge on the half-point one way or the other.

Total to watch

Buffalo at Atlanta (48.5)

Interesting study in contrasts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia, where the high-flying Falcons are off to a 3-0 start and hope to start creating a little separation in the NFC South. The Falcons have shrugged off their Super Bowl loss and again boast one of the best offense in the league.

The Bills, meanwhile, are 2-1 and doing it with defense. Two of their games have gone under, and Sunday’s victory over Denver barely covered the minuscule 40 posted by books. Buffalo has a very soft schedule after this one, and doesn’t have to face the suddenly-vulnerable Patriots until December.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Sunday, October 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2) vs. MIAMI (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (2 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 109-78 ATS (+23.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (2 - 1) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-178 ATS (-69.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (2 - 1) at MINNESOTA (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (0 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (2 - 1) at ATLANTA (3 - 0) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 3) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (2 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) at SEATTLE (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 32-60 ATS (-34.0 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Sunday, October 1

10:30 AM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games

2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tennessee's last 16 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Houston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games

2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NY JETS
Jacksonville is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

2:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. ATLANTA
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. DALLAS
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

2:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

2:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ENGLAND
Carolina is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Carolina is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

5:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing NY Giants

5:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. LOS ANGELES
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games

5:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

9:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Sunday, October 1

New Orleans @ Miami

Game 251-252
October 1, 2017 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
137.247
Miami
123.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 13 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Over

Carolina @ New England

Game 253-254
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.642
New England
139.179
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
49
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+9); Under

LA Rams @ Dallas

Game 255-256
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
127.553
Dallas
130.534
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 6 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+6 1/2); Under

Detroit @ Minnesota

Game 257-258
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
134.533
Minnesota
137.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
N/A

Tennessee @ Houston

Game 259-260
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.535
Houston
133.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+2 1/2); Under

Jacksonville @ NY Jets

Game 261-262
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
133.897
NY Jets
132.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3 1/2); Under

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Game 263-264
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
128.429
Cleveland
127.395
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+3); Under

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Game 265-266
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
133.551
Baltimore
127.661
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
42
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3); Under

Buffalo @ Atlanta

Game 267-268
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.398
Atlanta
145.490
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 13
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 8
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-8); Under

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay

Game 269-270
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
133.365
Tampa Bay
128.481
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3); Over

Philadelphia @ LA Chargers

Game 271-272
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
135.510
LA Chargers
130.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 2 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+2 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Arizona

Game 273-274
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
120.689
Arizona
132.248
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 11 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6 1/2); Under

Oakland @ Denver

Game 275-276
October 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
129.483
Denver
136.684
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Seattle

Game 277-278
October 1, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
123.468
Seattle
139.026
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 15 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 13
41
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-13); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 4

Sunday's games
Saints (1-2) vs Dolphins (1-1) (@ London)— Horrible travel schedule for Dolphins, who split a couple road games to open season, now head overseas after scoring 19-6 points (2 TD’s on 21 drives). Miami scored only 15 points in four red zone drives this year. Miami didn’t score LW until last play of game, then they missed PAT. Saints are on road for 3rd time in four weeks; they haven’t turned ball over yet (+3), but did allow 10+ yards per pass attempt in their two losses- they held Panthers to 4.2 in their win LW. Miami is 6-25 on 3rd down; they averaged 6.3/4.1 yds/pass attempt. NFC South teams are 8-15-1 in last 24 games as a favorite away from home.

Panthers (2-1) @ Patriots (2-1)— Carolina has only 3 TD’s on 28 drives this year, averaging 6.8/4.7/4.2 yds/pass attempt in their three games. Newton was sacked 10 times in last couple games; they’ve scored only 32 points in 8 red zone drives. Under Rivera, Panthers are 19-9-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Patriots scored 27-36-36 points so far (12 TD’s on 35 drives); they’re 39-24-3 in last 66 home games, but are 0-2 this year. NE is 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games vs NFC opponents. NE defense allowed 42-20-33 points in first three games, a red flag. Teams split six series games; Patriots are 1-2 here, with only win in 2001, Brady’s first year as starter. Since 2010, over is 38-20 in Patriot home games.

Rams (2-1) @ Cowboys (2-1)—Short week for Dallas after their Monday night win in Arizona; Cowboys are 0-7 SU/ATS after last seven MNF games, with four of those at home- their last post-Monday win was in ’08. Rams played last Thursday; they’ve got edge in rest/prep time. LA scored 107 points in first three games (10 TD’s, 7 FGAs on 30 drives); they’ve averaged 10.0/8.6/10.4 yards/pass attempt, but are stepping up in class here. Cowboys allowed 4.8/5.9/5.2 ypa in first three games; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a home favorite. Dallas won last three series games, by 27-34-3 points; Rams lost last three visits here- their last win in Dallas was in ’05. Last 4+ years. LA is 10-14-1 vs spread as a road underdog; all three of their games this year went over. NFC West teams are just 1-7 vs spread outside the division this season.

Lions (2-1) @ Vikings (2-1)— Minnesota backup QB Keenum put up big numbers (25-33/369) in Vikings’ win over Tampa LW; reality is there isn’t much difference between he and Bradford- as a Ram fan, I can attest to that. Minnesota is 2-0 at home, scoring 29-34 points (7 TD’s on 17 drives). Lions lost tough game at home to Falcons LW, coming up a yard short; Detroit is 11-14 vs spread on road under Caldwell; they won only road game this year, vs Giants on a Monday night. Lions are +6 in turnovers this year; they’re only NFL team this year to lose a games when they were +2 or better in turnovers. Detroit is 8-5 in last 13 series games; they won two of last three visits to Twin Cities. Vikings averaged 10.3/11.2 ypa in their wins, 3.7 in their loss.

Titans (2-1) @ Texans (1-2)—Houston is 8-2 in last ten series games; Titans lost last five visits here, by 24-6-24-14-7 points. Rookie QB Watson put up 33 points in Foxboro LW, averaging 8.3 ypa, converting 8-14 on 3rd down, but Texans have scored only 23 points on six red zone drives, which isn’t good. Houston lost field position in all three games so far, by 17-7-5 points. Tennessee scored 37-33 points in winning their last two games (7 TD’s on 24 drives); they won 37-16 in only road game, at Jacksonville. Houston is 2-4 as a home underdog under O’Brien; since ’09, they’re 4-10 as home dogs. Last 2+ years, Tennessee is 3-9 vs spread coming off a win, 1-0 this year. Over is 12-6 in Titans’ last 18 road games.

Jaguars (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)— Coughlin returns to Swamp Stadium as GM of Jaguars, who won 44-7 in England LW but didn’t take the usual bye after going overseas- this is first time they’ve done that. Field position has been a key in Jaguar games; winningn team has had 14+-yard edge in FP in all three of their games. Jags ran ball for 155-166 yards in their wins, 99 in their loss- they’re only 12-37 on 3rd down- they ask Bortles to manage the game and not make mistakes. Gang Green allowed 190-180 yards in first two games, then held Miami to 30 in LW’s upset win. Under Bowles, New York is 10-7 vs spread at home. Jets won last three series games, by ’09. 29-7-5 points; Jags’ last win was here in 2009.

Bengals (0-3) @ Browns (1-2)— Winless Bengals are road favorite vs Cleveland team they’ve beaten five times in row, winning last two visits to Lake Erie, by 37-3/23-10 scores. Cincy lost last two games by total of 7 points; they scored TD’s on both red zone drives LW, after going 0-6 (3 FG’s) on six RZ drives in first two games. Since 2013, Bengals are 6-8 as road favorites. Under is 17-8 in their last 25 road games. Cleveland was -6 in turnovers the last two weeks, both on road; rookie QB’s usually struggle on road. Browns have 17 plays of 20+ yards, which is encouraging, they’re 3-10-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year- they lost 21-18 to Steelers in only home game so far.

Steelers (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)— Ravens were a complete no-show against the Jaguars over the pond, now come home to face the rival Steelers, who lost in OT in Chicago LW. Baltimore won four of last five series games; Steelers lost last four visits to Charm City, by 2-20-3-7 points. Ravens were +7 in TO’s in their two wins, -3 in Jaguar loss; they’re just 7-22 on 3rd down in last two games. Baltimore is 7-3 vs spread in its last 10 home games; under is 16-9 in their last 25 home tilts. Steelers ran ball for only 207 yards in their first 3 games (69 ypg); they’re 12-37 on 3rd down- Chicago ran ball for 220 yards against them LW. Under is 19-7 in Pitt’s last 26 road games. Baltimore has only four plays of 20+ yards, 2nd-least in league- only Bucs have fewer and they’ve played one less game.

Bills (2-1) @ Falcons (3-0)—Atlanta hung on at goal line to win at Detroit LW, move to 3-0; they scored 8 TD’s on 28 drives, putting up 34-30 points in two games on carpet, where their speed is a bigger edge than on grass. Falcons are just 4-10 vs spread as a home favorite under Quinn, 1-0 this year- their last nine home games went over. Buffalo allowed only 12.3 pts/game in their 2-1 start, giving up 2 TD’s on 31 drives. Opponents averaged 4.4/4.7/5.9 ypa vs Bills this year; how will Ryan’s pass attack do here? Atlanta won last four series games by average score of 31-20; Bills are 1-4 in Atlanta, with only win in their first visit, in 1973. McDermott was Carolina’s defensive coordinator the last 6 years; Panthers were 5-7 vs Atlanta during that time. Falcons hung 48-33 points on his defense LY.

Giants (0-3) @ Buccaneers (1-1)— Giants are 0-3, scoring 4 TD’s on 30 drives, 30 points on 8 red zone drives- they did have three TD’s in 4th quarter at Philly LW, we’ll see if that carries over to this week- they’ve run ball 47 times for 145 yards in 3 games. No bueno. Tampa Bay has 4 TD’s on 19 drives, but 3 of the 4 drives were 46 or less yards, set up by defense/special teams. Case Keenum riddled Bucs’ defense for 11.7 ypa LW, not a good sign. Big Blue is 4-4-2 vs spread on road under McAdoo (under 8-2). Bucs are 3-8 in last 11 games as a home favorite; under is 5-3-1 in their home games under Koetter. Giants won last five series games, four by 10+ points; they won last three visits here. Bucs’ last series win was in 2003.

Eagles (2-1) @ Chargers (0-3)— Philly survived giving up 24 4th quarter points LW in 27-24 win over Giants; they allowed 7.3/7.8 ypa to Smith/Manning last two weeks, face another quality QB here in Rivers, who tossed three INT’s in 24-10 home loss to KC LW. Eagles are 2-5 as a road underdog under Pederson- losing RB Sproles LW hurts offense. Chargers are playing n their new home for 3rd week in row; they’re 10-33 on 3rd down, allowed 146.7 rushing ypg, but lost first two games because their rookie kicker missed FG’s in last minute. Bolts are 7-4 in series, 5-1 at home; Eagles’ only series win in San Diego was their first meeting, in 1974. Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 Philly road games. AFC West teams are 5-3 vs spread outside the division.

49ers (0-3) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Arizona on short week after Monday night loss to Dallas; 49ers played on Thursday, so edge in rest/prep time. Cardinals won last four series games, winning 47-7/23-20 in last two meetings played here. 49ers lost last two games by total of 5 points, losing 12-9 at Seattle in only road game- they had five TD’s last game, after not having any in first two games. Niners are 7-12 vs spread in last 19 games as a road underdog. Over is 12-5 in their last 17 road games. Arizona is 6-10 as home favorite last 2+ years; under is 15-9-1 in their last 25 home games- they’re 5-10 vs spread in last 15 NFC West home tilts. In last two games, Cardinals have scored only 16 points on seven red zone drives.

Raiders (2-1) @ Broncos (2-1)— Broncos are 9-2 in last 11 series games; Raiders lost four of last five visits here, losing by 31-16-33-18 points- they won in Denver two years ago. Oakland was really bad LW in Washington, outgained 472-128; they scored 71 points in first two games. Raiders are 11-7 as a road underdog under Del Rio; they’re 12-7 vs spread coming off a loss- this is their 3rd road game in four weeks. Under is 9-8-1 in their last 18 road games. Broncos scored 66 points in winning first two home game, then lost 26-16 LW in Buffalo; Denver is 23-44 on 3rd down this year. Last 2+ years, Broncos are 4-7-1 as a home favorite; they’re 13-7-1 vs spread in games following their last 21 losses.

Colts (1-2) @ Seahawks (1-2)—Seattle’s offense is struggling, scoring one TD in first two games before scoring 27 in 6-point loss at Tennessee LW. Scoring 36 points on nine red zone drives isn’t ideal. Spread is lower than you’d think; overreaction to Colts’ win over Cleveland LW? Brissett is making his 4th NFL start; this is his first road start, in hostile environment where Seahawks are 26-16 vs spread as a home favorite under Carroll. Last three years, Seattle is 8-3 vs spread when laying double digits. Colts are 16-35 on 3rd down last two games; their last two games were both decided by a FG. Indy is 7-4 vs Seahawks; this is their first visit to Seattle since 2005. AFC South teams are 4-2 vs spread out of its division; NFC West teams are 1-7, 1-3 when favored.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
Monty Andrews

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

Jaguars' red-zone success vs. Jets' leaky downfield D

Two teams that outscored their opponents by a combined 51 points in Week 3 will lock horns this weekend as the New York Jets entertain Jacksonville. The Jaguars were the surprise of the weekend, rolling to a 44-7 throttling of the Baltimore Ravens in London, while the Jets stunned the football world by cruising to a 20-6 triumph over Miami. Jacksonville has the edge in this one according to oddsmakers, due at least in part to a sensational red-zone record through the first three weeks of the season.

Jacksonville came into the season facing serious question marks on offense, but quarterback Blake Bortles and rookie running back Leonard Fournette have put those concerns to rest - at least for now. The Jaguars come into Week 4 having scored touchdowns on two-thirds of their drives into the red-zone - putting them in the top third league-wide. Bortles already has six TD passes on the young season, while Fournette has three rushing scores to kick off his NFL career.

The Jets dominated play from start to finish against the Dolphins last week, surrendering only a last-second touchdown catch from DeVante Parker. But things haven't been so rosy overall, with New York surrendering touchdowns on 77.8 percent of opponent visits to the red zone. It's among the worst marks on the season, and represents a significant step back after the Jets allowed red-zone TDs on 56.9 percent of opponent red-zone trips in 2016.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 43)

Steelers' second-half stinginess vs. Ravens' reeling offense

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are both coming off stunning losses - and are looking for answers as they face off Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. The Steelers lost a 23-17 overtime stunner to the Chicago Bears, while the Ravens were on the wrong end of a Jacksonville scoring spree overseas. This one is expected to be close - and that favors the Steelers, who have been one of the toughest teams to score against in the second half of games.

The Steelers were burned by a Jordan Howard rushing score in OT, but prior to that they had dominated teams after the half. Pittsburgh has allowed a paltry 17 points in the third and fourth quarters of their first three games of 2017, with the 5.7 second-half points per game against representing the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The Steelers have been even more impressive over the past two contests, allowing a combined six points in the third and fourth quarters against Minnesota and Chicago.

That bodes poorly for a Baltimore offense that has come out of the halftime break a slumbering mess to start the year. The Ravens have scored a combined 13 points in the second half of their first three games, with seven of those coming on a meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Jacksonville loss. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been the biggest culprit, amassing just 84 passing yards in the second half of two-plus games; he was pulled in London in favor of Ryan Mallett.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+1.5, 44)

Titans' elite pass protection vs. Texans' leaky O-line

The Tennessee Titans' offense has come alive after a slow start to the season, and Marcus Mariota and Co. will look to carry that momentum into Sunday's AFC South encounter with the Houston Texans. Tennessee has scored 70 combined points in victories over the Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks, and will look to tame another impressive defense on the strength of an offensive line that has managed to give Mariota all the time he needs to burn the opposition.

Tennessee boasted a top-12 pass protection unit last season, limiting foes to a 5.26 percent sack rate. Things have been a whole lot better through the first three weeks of the 2017 campaign, with Mariota going down on just 1.96 percent of dropbacks - the best rate in football. Blessed with more clean pockets than any starting quarterback in the NFL, Mariota has taken full advantage, completing 60 percent of his passes for 696 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception.

Rookie Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson would probably give anything for protection like that. Unfortunately, he finds himself at the other end of the spectrum; Houston is surrendering sacks on a whopping 13.89 percent of dropbacks, the worst rate in the league. And while many of those sacks were allowed in a season-opening loss to the Jaguars, the five sacks allowed per game is still miles ahead of the 1.9 mark Houston posted a season ago.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5)

Eagles' elite time of possession vs. Chargers' TOP turmoil

With Chip Kelly at the helm, the Philadelphia Eagles were perennially one of the worst teams in the NFL in time of possession. But this is a new team - and with it, a new set of habits as the Eagles look to take charge of a competitive NFC East with a win over the host Chargers. Philadelphia is off to a sensational start on offense, and will look to control the play against a Chargers team that hasn't had the ball nearly as much as it would like through the first three weeks of 2017.

With top-10 rankings in both passing (252.7) and rushing yards per game (119.3), it's easy to see why the Eagles have been able to control the ball so effectively. Philadelphia's 34:12 time-of-possession average ranks 12 seconds ahead of the runner-up Carolina Panthers; that's nothing new to the Eagles, who led the league in that category a season ago after finishing dead last in each of the previous three seasons.

The Chargers finished with a modest edge in time of possession last season (30:21), but will be hard-pressed to match that success in 2017. Los Angeles comes into the week ranked among the league's bottom feeders at just 27:19 per game. After ranking 26th in rushing yards per game a season ago, the Chargers are 27th through three games - and at a woeful 30.3-percent conversion rate on third down, Los Angeles isn't extending drives, either. A similar effort Sunday could lead to a one-sided TOP result.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Muffed Punt: 'Recency Bias' is going to burn you bad when it comes to this NFL Week 4 bet
Joe Fortenbaugh

Let’s try a bit of an experiment, shall we? I’m going to give you one piece of information about the Ravens-Steelers AFC North showdown that takes place this Sunday in Baltimore and based solely on that information, I want you to pick the winner of that game.

Ready?

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Baltimore Ravens.

So who do you like to win Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers and Ravens?

Sure, that’s a bit of a leading question designed to entice you to pick the Ravens based on the lone piece of information we provided. But what I can’t seem to figure out is why Baltimore is catching three points at home despite the fact that Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Ravens.

My best guess is that this pointspread has something to do with “Recency Bias”, which is a term used in the finance world to explain a situation where stock market participants evaluate their portfolio performance based on recent results and make incorrect conclusions that ultimately lead to incorrect decisions about how the stock market behaves.

Applied to this instance, I think bettors are putting too much emphasis on Baltimore’s humiliating 44-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London last Sunday.

Instead of focusing on just how bad Joe Flacco & Co. looked against Blake Bortles last weekend, pay attention to the fact that the Ravens are 13-2 straight up and 11-4 against the spread under head coach John Harbaugh when coming off a double-digit loss.

And then go ahead and grab the Ravens plus the field goal.

With three weeks in the books

Home teams ATS: 25-21-1
Favorites ATS: 19-26-1
Home underdogs: 12-7
Over/Under: 23-24-1

Trend of the Week

The Los Angeles Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games played overall.

Think about that for a second. The last time Philip Rivers and the Bolts covered the spread, it came in Week 12 of last season when the Bolts (-2.5) defeated the Texans in Houston by a final score of 21-13. Since that date (11/27/2016), the Chargers have yet to cover a single pointspread.

Does the streak finally come to an end Sunday afternoon at StubHub Center in Carson, California when the Philadelphia Eagles come to town as 1-point underdogs? Take note that Carson Wentz and the Birds are just 2-7 ATS over their last nine road dates.

Sharps like…

*The following information is courtesy Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook Manager Ed Salmons.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (in London): Drew Brees and the Saints are 11-5 ATS over their last 16 games overall, while the Dolphins are 4-10 ATS over their last 14 games an ATS loss.

Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas is working on a short week following Monday night’s win in Arizona, but note that the Cowboys are just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Rams quarterback Jared Goff currently ranks first in the NFL in yards per attempt (10.09).

New York Jets (+4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Are you prepared to live in a world that features Blake Bortles as a road favorite?

Denver Broncos (-2.5) vs. Oakland Raiders: The Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS over their last 13 home dates and 16-7 ATS over their last 23 games when coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Raiders are just 2-8-1 ATS over their last 11 showdowns with the Broncos.

The public likes…

“All NFL favorites with popular teams, like the Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers, Falcons and Chiefs are going to attract public money,” said Salmons. “The book will absolutely need an underdog to win straight-up with all of the moneyline parlays and teaser action we are going to see.”

Biggest line move…

“The Dallas Cowboys, which we opened at -7.5 and have since moved to -6.5,” Salmons told ***********.

The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS over their last seven showdowns against teams with a winning record.

Biggest sweat…

“We needed the Bears on Thursday night, that’s for sure,” said Salmons. “As for Sunday, we’ll definitely need an underdog of six or more points to pull an upset and win straight up.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Higgs

Oct 01 '17, 4:25 PM in

NFL | Raiders vs Broncos
Play on: Broncos -3 -115 at 5Dimes


So we will be backing the DENVER BRONCOS as our FREE PLAY here on Sunday. Forget about the Raiders laying an egg last week. That was to be expected. As I said on these pages cashing our Bills play, both AFC West teams would be not as focused on the east coast with this match-up on tap.
Broncos defense will be the difference maker this afternoon. And it is as simple as that. Trevor Siemian comfortable at home with 450 yards 6 TDs/ 2 INTs in wins over San Diego and Dallas. The entire team plays better here. 35-7 SU since 2012. Laying just a FG, we have to bite on the home faves. Raiders 2-8-1 ATS last 11 vs Denver. Take the BRONCOS to get it done in this AFC West battle - GL Sean !

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Steelers vs Ravens
Play on: UNDER 42 -104

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Steelers/Ravens UNDER 42

The Steelers/Ravens rivalry has been the best in the NFL this century. These teams couldn't hate each other any more than they do, and points are usually hard to come by in a hard-hitting slug fest. I've seen nothing from these teams thus far that leads me to believe it will be any different in their first meeting of 2017.

The Steelers aren't nearly as explosive offensively as many thought they'd be. They are only averaging 21.3 points, 302 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that give up 23 points, 328 yards per game and 5.6 per play. Big Ben has been shaky at best, and Le'Veon Bell hasn't been able to get going on the ground. The Steelers are averaging just 69 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.

But the surprising part about the Steelers is that their defense has been lights out. They have made a lot of moves on this side of the ball to get back to the Steel Curtain days. They are giving up just 16.7 points, 259 yards per game and 4.5 per play against teams that average 19.4 points, 343 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

The Ravens have been a nightmare offensively. Joe Flacco is rusty as the passing offense is averaging just 121 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt. They are being held to 17 points, 264 yards per game and 4.5 per play as an offense. Don't expect them to be much better on this side of the ball any time soon.

But the Ravens opened up with a shutout win over Cincinnati, then held Cleveland to just 10 points. Their effort against the Jaguars was an aberration last week, and you can bet they will be looking to rebound defensively in this rivalry game. They are still giving up just 18 points per game after allowing 44 to the Jaguars in London last week.

The UNDER is 21-7 in Steelers last 28 road games. The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Steelers last 36 against division opponents. The UNDER is 15-3 in Steelers last 18 games in the first half of the season. The UNDER is 10-4 in Ravens last 14 home games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Ravens last seven against AFC North foes. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Jaguars vs Jets
Play on: Jets +3½ -110 at Bovada

This game features the 2-1 Jags at the 1-2 Jets. Jets got a little taste of winning and I think that really motivates this team. Jags are coming back from London still on the road and have to play a Jets team that has not had to travel at all. Again love the plus points with the home team. Public after seeing the way the Jags won are all over them this week as 74% are backing them and yet this line has held tight at 3 in most spots 3.5 if you can get lucky. Take the Jets plus the points but I think they win this outrite. 15* Jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Oct 01 '17, 4:25 PM

NFL | Raiders vs Broncos
Play on: UNDER 46 -110

Free Pick on Broncos UNDER
I see some great value with the UNDER on the total in Sunday's AFC West clash between the Raiders and Broncos. I just think this number is a little high after seeing how poorly these two defenses played last week. Denver gave up 26 on the road against the Bills and the Raiders allowed 27 to the Redskins in a nationally televised game.
I certainly expect this Broncos defense to play much better this week at home. Not that they need any extra motivation when facing the Raiders, but last week's poor showing will only add more fuel to the fire. Denver's offense has looked good in spurts, mainly against Dallas, but I just don't see a whole lot of difference between this year's team and last year unit that ranked 27th in total offense and 22nd in scoring. If they are improved, it's only marginally.
Oakland defense isn't as good as it gets credit for, but I think it's good enough to keep the Broncos in check. They held them to 20 and 24 points in the two meetings last year and got more talent on that side of the ball in 2017.
UNDER is 12-3 in the Broncos last 15 after playing their previous game on the road, 7-1 in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record and 6-1 in their last 7 following a game where they didn't cover the spread. UNDER is 5-1 in the Raiders last 6 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 against division opponents. Take the UNDER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Steelers vs Ravens
Play on: Steelers -2½ -126 at GTBets

#NFL FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Baltimore Ravens forgot to bring their offense when they traveled to London, England to face the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday. Actually, they forgot to bring their defense as well and had to head back home a 44-7 loser after being outgained by 410 yards to 186. The Ravens can't possibly be as bad here the following week, but last week's transatlantic travel won't help and I don't think they'll be able to keep up with their AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
Pittsburgh must be extremely disappointed with last week's performance as well after falling 23-17 in overtime to the Bears in Chicago as a 7-point favorite. The Steelers are 2-1 on the season despite RB Le'Veon Bell being off to a slow start, and QB Big Ben Roethlisberger has yet to show his best stuff as well. It's only a matter of time before they heat up though, and the Steelers have too many weapons for the Ravens to shut down.
Baltimore is dead last in the NFL in total offense, and Quarterback Joe Flacco is averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt through the first three contests and he completed only eight of 18 pass attempts for a career-worst 28 yards with two interceptions against the Jaguars. Pittsburgh is ranked third in the league in total defense and second against the pass, so I predict another tough game for Flacco. The Bears hurt Pittsburgh on the ground last week, but Baltimore has a much weaker running game than Chicago.
My free pick is on Pittsburgh Steelers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Bengals vs Browns
Play on: Browns +3½ -125 at Bovada

Doc’s Sports Free Play. #264 Take Cleveland Browns over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Browns were a rare road favorite last week in Indianapolis and they proved they were not up to the challenge getting down big earlier before making a late rally for the final score to look a little respectable. Now they are back as an underdog against a divisional opponent playing their second straight road game. Cincinnati played well last week at Green Bay but could not close out the game and they sit at a similar 0-3 record. Just feel this is the game Cleveland will put forth a great effort and get a game at home. Cleveland is 9-2 in their last 11 games played during week 4 of the regular season. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card. We have nailed our top play in both college and NFL two straight weeks. Sign-up now and let 46 years of handicapping experience work for you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Rams vs Cowboys
Play on: Rams +6½ -110 at Bovada

1* Free Play on Rams +6½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Panthers vs Patriots
Play on: Patriots -9 -105 at GTBets

I'm recommending a play on the Patriots minus the points on Sunday. It's not often we recommend laying big points in the NFL, but we expect a refocused Patriots' effort on defense after allowing 33 points and 417 yards to Houston last week. Under Belichick, the Pats are 28-12 ATS after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game. The Tom Brady-led offense is beginning to click as Brady and Brandin Cooks have begun to find a rhythm. Cooks was Brady's second most targeted receiver last week and finished with 131 yards receiving and a pair of TDs. Brady, Cooks, Gronk, Hogan, and Amendola, are on the same page in the passing game at this point. While we expect another strong game from the New England offense, we don't believe the Panthers' banged-up attack will be able to keep up. We're recommending a play on the Patriots minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.