Sunday 10-1-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Wallace

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Steelers vs Ravens
Play on: Steelers -2½ -126 at betonline

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Oct 01 '17, 4:05 PM

NFL | Giants vs Bucs
Play on: OVER 44½ -110

Jameis Winston has scary receiving weapons in Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. The Buccaneers don't get their best running back, Doug Martin, back until next week when his suspension is lifted. But the Giants rank last in run defense giving up 153.3 yards on the ground per game. The Giants defense has been on the field far more than their offense. New York has lost the time of possession battle in all three of their games by wide margins. This is a late afternoon game in south Florida heat and humidity. The Giants defense could wilt away in the second half. So I'm confident the Buccaneers will get their share of points. But how about the Giants? Can they hold up their part on the offensive end? Evidence and circumstances say yes - in a big way. The Giants finally - after 11 quarters - got their passing attack humming putting up 24 points on the Eagles in the fourth quarter last Sunday. Eli Manning threw for 366 yards and three touchdowns against Philadelphia. The Giants have all their starters healthy now on their offensive line and Manning has gotten in sync with his wide receivers. A healthy Odell Beckham Jr. can take his place among the three best wideouts in the NFL. Manning is 5-0 lifetime versus Tampa Bay. He's had some huge games against the Bucs. The Buccaneers haven't sacked Manning the past three times they've faced him and have only one sack this season in 78 pass attempts. Journeyman Case Keenum had the best game of his five-year career playing the Buccaneers last week. Keenum threw for 369 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. His passer rating was 142.1. Going into that game, Keenum's career quarterback rating was below 80. A big reason for Keenum's explosion was Tampa Bay's cluster injury problem on defense. The Buccaneers could get some of their walking wounded back, but are going to be without their two best linebackers, Kown Alexander and Lavonte David, and probably missing safety TJ Ward, too. Rookie linebacker Kendell Beckwith is forced to call the Bucs' defensive signals with Alexander and David out. It's an added bonus for the Giants if the Buccaneers are minus their two best defensive linemen, Gerald McCoy (ankle) and Chris Baker (flu).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Ramirez

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Lions vs Vikings
Play on: Vikings -1½ -120 at betonline

NFL BOOKMAKER OFFSET 75 DIME GAME
VIKINGS -1.5
The Vikings gained only 237 yards in a 26-9 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 2, but it is safe to say things of turned around. Even if Bradford cannot go, Keenum is playing with confidence now so the home team should feel good about its offense. As for Detroit, last weekend’s thriller is a tough one from which to recover. The Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall, 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the NFC, 2-6 ATS in their last eight on fieldturf, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 against the NFC North, 0-5 ATS in their last five against winning opponents, and 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against the Vikings. Minnesota is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 overall, 24-7 ATS in its last 31 at home, 13-6 ATS in its last 19 against winning opponents, and 9-0 ATS in its last nine at home against opponents with winning road records.
Vikings win 23-20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Bengals vs Browns
Play on: Bengals -3 -120 at 5Dimes

Cincinnati Bengals -3
The Bengals and Browns Battle for Ohio and it’s Cincinnati who has the value here.
Both teams enter play 0-3 and have looked pretty bad in their opening games. However, the Bengals have a little momentum to carry here into this one.
They nearly took down Aaron Rodgers and company on the road last week and Andy Dalton and AJ Green seem to have built some steam when it comes to their connection. That spells a ton of a trouble for the Browns, who really don’t have an answer for stopping Green when these two teams meet.
The Browns have looked horrific on both sides of the ball thus far. Turnovers offensively and getting burned with the big play defensively has hurt them in every game.
This team isn’t built to keep up with the Bengals in this spot.
A couple trends to consider. CIN are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record in their last 14 games. CLE are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Back Cincinnati.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM

NFL | Rams vs Cowboys
Play on: Rams +6½ -110 at 5Dimes

Play - L.A. Rams (Game 255).
Edges - Rams: 3-0 SUATS in first underdog role last three seasons… Cowboys: 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS following Monday nights; and 0-7 ATS in Game Four of the season versus .500 or greater opponents… With the Cowboys looking dead ahead to a playoff revenge game with the Packers, we recommend a 1* play on the Rams. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Alexander

Oct 01 '17, 8:30 PM

NFL | Colts vs Seahawks
Play on: Seahawks -13 -105 at GTBets

Rating: 2 Unit NFL Free Pick
The Seahawks have never been the same, after blowing the Super Bowl, with the single worst play calling ever. That being the case, the Colts may have a legitimate shot at the upset here. They sure would, with a healthy Luck. But that's not the case. Indianapolis lost its last road game by 32½ points, and Seattle's Wilson is in off a 373 yard, 4 touchdown 0 interception game. This one will be over early.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #3 - BELMONT PARK - 2:32 PM EASTERN POST
The Temperence Hill Invitational Stakes
13.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#2 MADEFROMLUCKY
#4 ARCHANOVA
#6 SCUBA
#1 TESTOSTERSTONE

This race honors the career of Temperence Hill, who is named after a minister in Arkansas ... he showed strong potential throughout the spring of 1980, with wins in Kentucky Derby prep races, the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, Temperence Hill's breakthrough performance came in the 1980 Belmont Stakes where he defeated Kentucky Derby winner Genuine Risk and Preakness Stakes winner Codex at odds of 53-1. He went on to win several additional Grade I stakes and was voted Champion three-year-old of 1980. Here in just the 5th running of The Hill, #2 MADEFROMLUCKY has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five starts, hitting the board in three, including a BLISTERING, 12-length, "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start. Jockey Javier Castellano and Trainer Todd Pletcher send him to the post for the Sunday "Co-Feature" ... they've hit the board with 56% of nearly 150 entries saddled as a team to date. #4 ARCHANOVA, an 8-1 shot, has hit the boiard in three of his last four starts, including a "POWER RUN SHOW" finish his last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #9 - Post: 4:50pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $53,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating: 3

#3 LORAN HOLIDAY (ARG) (ML=5/1)
#12 PAGEANT MATERIAL (ML=5/1)
#8 DRINKS ON BROADWAY (ML=12/1)
#5 HOLIDAY MUSIC (ML=5/1)
#7 SONG OF SPRING (ML=6/1)


LORAN HOLIDAY (ARG) - On board this horse on September 14th and Albarado is back again in the irons in today's contest. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front-runner facing sluggish sorts today. Last time out, finished eighth on the soft turf at Kentucky Downs. Have to do better right here. PAGEANT MATERIAL - Atop this entrant on September 8th and Gilligan is back again in the irons today. A racer coming back this quickly after a solid race is a good sign. DRINKS ON BROADWAY - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this pony is encountering an easier group than last time around the track at Kentucky Downs. Don't throw this horse out due to her last race at Kentucky Downs where she ended up sixth on the soft turf. Expect better today. HOLIDAY MUSIC - This filly is a gem of consistency, almost always in-the-money. Calhoun brings her right back. I advise you stay with this hot filly. Had a solid closing move last out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar effort today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. SONG OF SPRING - Finished out of the money last out at Churchill Downs, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think she's got a chance. Look at this pattern of improvement. 74/77/87 are the last three speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 DREAMCALL (ML=4/1), #6 FUN (ML=6/1),

DREAMCALL - Have to put a question mark next to the last speed rating since it was attained on the soft turf. FUN - I'd like to see better recent showings with oddsmaker's morning line of 6/1.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #3 LORAN HOLIDAY (ARG) on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,8,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,12] with [3,8,12] with [3,5,7,8,12] with [3,5,7,8,12] Total Cost: $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6200 Class Rating: 71

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 ALPHAGATE 5/1

# 4 WILD WHEELBENDER 9/5

# 3 ROSILA 10/1

ALPHAGATE has a very good shot to take this race. With Muir getting the mount, watch out for this equine. She looks strong in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Ought to be considered based on the quite good speed rating garnered in the last race. WILD WHEELBENDER - She has garnered very strong figs under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this field. Must be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last contest. ROSILA - With Nelson on top her, this mare will probably be able to break out quickly in this competition. Is a strong contender based on numbers put up recently under today's conditions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 1 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 TEXAS ALLEY KAT 7/2

# 5 VALID VOW 5/2

# 1 ZANITA ROSAE 3/1

TEXAS ALLEY KAT looks very good to best this field. Is a very solid contender based on numbers posted lately under today's conditions. Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 67 Equibase speed fig which is one of the best in this group. She looks decent in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. VALID VOW - When Cloutier uses Perez there's a good chance for sizeable profits. Lately Cloutier has provided wagerers with a solid winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. ZANITA ROSAE - She has competitive class ratings, averaging 77, and has to be considered in this competition. Has put up reliable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge

Lethbridge - Race 5

Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta


Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $4,400 • Post: 5:05P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Stalker. GENIUS LEVEL is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * HERCULEAN: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an insi de post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MASTER'S BLUFF: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. S TOPPED SHORT: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TAKIN A DIP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Trac kMaster Power Rating.
3
HERCULEAN
9/5

4/1
2
MASTER'S BLUFF
10/1

6/1
4
STOPPED SHORT
6/1

7/1
5
TAKIN A DIP
5/2

9/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 5:25pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: 3

#8 SARA THE GREAT (ML=5/1)
#9 HENIN (ML=4/1)
#2 ERIN'S WISH (ML=3/1)
#4 SEAMSTRESS (ML=6/1)


SARA THE GREAT - This mare is entered right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. Dropped down in class in the last race, and keeps in that lower class level right here. A good sign this animal is comfortable and ready to go. HENIN - Hayes brings this mare back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his mare is on top of her game. Look at this mare's PP lines. With each contest she keeps getting closer. I like the piece of information that this mare's last speed rating, 72, is tops in this group. ERIN'S WISH - This filly is in exceptional form right now. Finished second last out and comes back promptly. SEAMSTRESS - My handicapping intuition tells me to watch out for this animal in this race

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LATIKA LOVE (ML=6/1), #1 PASSIONFORWINNING (ML=8/1), #3 PINK FOR ME (ML=8/1),

LATIKA LOVE - Placed much too far in the rear on August 27th for me to support at the probable odds in today's sprint event. The fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this entrant as a possibly overvalued contestant. PASSIONFORWINNING - She probably can't repeat that last stretch run effort and win against this group. This mare recorded a speed figure in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. PINK FOR ME - This mare is always in the money, but just doesn't get the job done. Tough to play her on the front end. This mare notched a speed rating in her last contest which likely isn't good enough in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #8 SARA THE GREAT on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows

Prairie Meadows - Race 9

Win, Place, Show (17% Takeout), Exacta, Quinella, .10 Superfecta (20% Takeout) .50 Trifecta (23% Takeout), .50 Pentafecta (15% Takeout)


Claiming $7,500 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $7,300 • Post: 4:28P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $5,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * HESS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. PARK AVENUE AIR: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TESSEVISION: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. SAMBI: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post posit ion next to it gets out of the gate fast. GRINCH ON FIRE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5
HESS
7/2

4/1
8
PARK AVENUE AIR
15/1

6/1
3
TESSEVISION
6/1

8/1
9
SAMBI
12/1

10/1
2
GRINCH ON FIRE
9/2

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAME: Houston Astros (100-61) at Boston Red Sox (93-68)
DATE/TIME: Sunday, October 01 - 3:05 PM EST
WHERE: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
Preview: Astros at Red Sox

Gracenote
Oct 1, 2017

It took a little longer than planned, but the Boston Red Sox clinched the American League East with one day to spare in the regular season. The Houston Astros, who assured themselves of the No. 2 seed in the AL playoffs with a loss to the Red Sox on Saturday, will visit Boston in Sunday's regular-season finale before the two teams meet again next week in the AL Division Series.

The Red Sox, who will visit Houston for Game 1 of the best-of-five ALDS on Thursday, dropped the first two games of the series and four of five before pulling off the 6-3 victory on Saturday. The win allows them to skip ace Chris Sale, and both teams will likely treat Sunday's finale like spring training. "This was the most probable outcome just the way the weekend was lining up. It doesn't surprise me," Astros manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "The first three games here were played with a little concern about that being a potential matchup. We were just playing, trying to win. Obviously, I don't know how (Sunday) is going to go for either team. It's fun. This is a good team across the way, we're a good team, we're both division champions. We'll obviously see a lot of each other over the next 10 days." Houston will give Collin McHugh one last chance to earn a spot in the postseason rotation while Boston gives Sale a rest and instead sends Hector Velazquez to the mound.

TV: 3:05 p.m. ET, AT&T SportsNet-Southwest (Houston), NESN (Boston)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Collin McHugh (4-2, 3.45 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Hector Velazquez (3-1, 3.48)

McHugh is making his third straight regular turn in the rotation and looking for his third win in as many starts. The 30-year-old only completed five innings in each of his last two starts but allowed a total of three runs while striking out 11. McHugh saw Boston twice in 2016 and went 0-1 while allowing a total of nine runs and 20 hits in 10 innings.

Velazquez tossed a scoreless inning of relief in Thursday's series opener and is making his first start since June 19 at Kansas City, when he allowed two runs and five hits in 5 1/3 innings. The rookie allowed one hit in three scoreless innings over three relief appearances this month. Velazquez went 8-4 with a 2.21 ERA in 19 starts for Triple-A Pawtucket this season.

WALK-OFFS

1. Red Sox LF Andrew Benintendi recorded his 20th steal on Saturday to join Ellis Burks (1987) and Nomar Garciaparra (1997) as the only rookies in team history to record 20 steals and 20 homers.

2. Houston SS Carlos Correa is 13-for-20 with 10 RBIs in the last five games.

3. Boston 2B Dustin Pedroia (knee) was scratched Saturday and could sit again Sunday.

PREDICTION: Astros 7, Red Sox 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Houston at Boston

W/L Trends

Houston

Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 road games. Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Astros are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Astros are 21-8 in their last 29 overall. Astros are 21-8 in their last 29 games on grass. Astros are 38-17 in their last 55 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Astros are 40-18 in their last 58 games following a loss. Astros are 79-37 in their last 116 games vs. a right-handed starter. Astros are 36-17 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Astros are 7-1 in McHughs last 8 starts with 5 days of rest. Astros are 6-1 in McHughs last 7 Sunday starts. Astros are 5-1 in McHughs last 6 starts. Astros are 5-1 in McHughs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Astros are 8-2 in McHughs last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Astros are 6-2 in McHughs last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Astros are 9-4 in McHughs last 13 road starts. Astros are 53-26 in McHughs last 79 starts on grass.

Boston

Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win. Red Sox are 14-6 in their last 20 games on grass. Red Sox are 16-7 in their last 23 overall. Red Sox are 29-13 in their last 42 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 Sunday games.

OU Trends

Houston

Over is 6-1 in Astros last 7 overall. Over is 6-1 in Astros last 7 on grass. Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 road games. Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 7-2 in Astros last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 27-8-2 in Astros last 37 Sunday games. Over is 29-11-1 in Astros last 41 vs. American League East. Under is 10-4 in Astros last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Under is 5-0 in McHughs last 5 starts during game 4 of a series. Under is 6-0 in McHughs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 6-1 in McHughs last 7 starts with 5 days of rest. Under is 8-2 in McHughs last 10 starts overall. Under is 4-1 in McHughs last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in McHughs last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 7-2 in McHughs last 9 starts on grass. Under is 5-2 in McHughs last 7 Sunday starts.

Boston

Under is 11-1 in Red Sox last 12 Sunday games. Under is 7-1 in Red Sox last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 overall. Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 on grass. Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 home games. Under is 10-4-1 in Red Sox last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 19-8 in Red Sox last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Under is 27-12-2 in Red Sox last 41 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 13-6 in Red Sox last 19 games following a win.

Head to Head

Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Boston. Over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. Astros are 6-15 in the last 21 meetings in Boston.

Umpire Trends - Alan Porter

• Home team is 4-0 in Porters last 4 Sunday games behind home plate.
• Over is 4-0 in Porters last 4 Sunday games behind home plate.
• Over is 5-1 in Porters last 6 games behind home plate.
• Home team is 5-1 in Porters last 6 games behind home plate.
• Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 games with Porter behind home plate.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 Sunday games with Porter behind home plate.
• Home team is 8-3 in Porters last 11 games behind home plate vs. Houston.
• Astros are 1-7 in their last 8 games with Porter behind home plate.