Sunday 10-1-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM in 3h
NFL | Panthers vs Patriots
Play on: Panthers +9 -105 at Bovada

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Free Early NFL Pick - Carolina Panthers (+) @ New England @ 1 ET - After getting thoroughly embarrassed last week by New Orleans (partly due to a 3-0 turnover deficit), look for Carolina to respond in a big way here. Their health on defense overall is in a little better shape than it was last week and, keep in mind, the Panthers had allowed just 3 points in each of their first two games. Though the Patriots are a formidable foe, to say the least, they were so insanely hot ATS last season, that you have to feel a correction is coming this season. That said, they are already 0-2 ATS at home and I feel they are again overpriced here. Interestingly, the Pats are actually 1-3 ATS (and SU!) the last 4 times they've been a home favorite in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. While an upset certainly wouldn't be a complete shock here, I am grabbing the generous points. EARLY Free Pick on Carolina plus the big points. Best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Alexander

Oct 01 '17, 8:30 PM

NFL | Colts vs Seahawks
Play on: Seahawks -13 -105 at GTBets

Rating: 2 Unit NFL Free Pick
The Seahawks have never been the same, after blowing the Super Bowl, with the single worst play calling ever. That being the case, the Colts may have a legitimate shot at the upset here. They sure would, with a healthy Luck. But that's not the case. Indianapolis lost its last road game by 32½ points, and Seattle's Wilson is in off a 373 yard, 4 touchdown 0 interception game. This one will be over early.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

Denver (-3) over Oakland

The Raiders have not looked good on the road this season, and I think that they are going to struggle here against their division rival. The Broncos defense is dominating. Oakland looked terrible against the Redskins in primetime last week. I think it will be more of the same this week. Denver has really owned this series. The Broncos are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against the Raiders and Denver is 4-1 ATS at home against Oakland. The favorite is 9-1 ATS the last 10 times that these two teams have faced off, and I like Denver's defense to dominate this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports

New York Giants (+3) over Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay defense hasn't looked that great, especially against the pass. Even with the loss the Giants offense seemed to get back on track with ODB Jr. looking solid. Look for the Giants to take advantage of numerous Tampa Bay injuries and to get over the 20-point mark for the second consecutive game. The Bucs haven't looked as good as people expected them to, and the Giants, being in a must-win game already, will take advantage. New York is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to Tampa Bay and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven matchups with the Bucs. Take the dog in this one as they win outright.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins

Lean – New Orleans (-2.5/-3) over Miami (London)

The Dolphins have had a brutal travel schedule to start the season. After enduring Hurricane Irma caused them to cancel their first game, Miami has traveled to Los Angeles, then New York, and now London. The Dolphins have played poorly in their first two games and rank as the worst team in my metrics. The new offense with Jay Cutler at quarterback has only gained 4.3 yppl compared to their 5.8 yppl last season with Ryan Tannehill.

The Saints have relied on their air attack, per usual, and my numbers have their pass offense ranked 8th, a ranking that could improve this week going against the Dolphin’s 30th ranked pass defense. However, New Orleans’ defense is even worse than Miami’s, as the Saints still rank last in the league according to my metrics even after holding Carolina to 13 points last week.

My model suggests that the true line on this game should be New Orleans by 4½ points and there is value on the Saints here against a Dolphins team possibly suffering from travel fatigue.

Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots

Despite starting 2-1, the Patriots have been a below average team thus far, ranking 21st in my metrics just using 2017 data. However, the Patriots have a strong tendency to right themselves when they are not playing well. In fact, the Patriots are 29-5-2 ATS if they enter a game with a losing pointspread record and are not laying more than 9 points.

Cam Newton is following up the worst year of his career with an even worse year and he was pulled at the end of last week’s game after throwing 3 interceptions. To make matters worse for the Panthers passing game, they’ll be without TE Greg Olsen and maybe WR Kelvin Benjamin for this game. Carolina may need Newton to use his feet and I expect them to rely on their 10th ranked rushing offense this week against a Patriots rush defense that ranks 29th in my numbers. Carolina’s only strength is their defense, which is very good. However, New England is relatively better against better defensive teams, which they showed against in last week’s 36-33 win over a Texans’ team with a good defense. I don’t see any value here with either side.

Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys

Lean – Over (47.5) – DALLAS (-6) vs Los Angeles Rams

The Cowboys took control in the second half of Monday night’s game in Arizona with quarterback Dak Prescott leading the way by averaging 9.2 yards per pass play. After allowing the Cardinals offense 144 yards on their first two drives, the Dallas defense settled in and Arizona finished the game with only 4.4 yppl. The Cowboys defense will need to continue playing well against a Rams offense ranked 3rd in my numbers.

Los Angeles topped 40 points for the second time in three games last week in San Francisco. While Todd Gurley stole the headlines with 3 touchdowns, Jared Goff’s passing attack has been the reason for the offensive success. Sean McVay’s Rams rank first in passing through three games after having the worst pass attack in the leauge a season ago based on my metrics. Los Angeles’ improved offensive line, led by a new left tackle, 3-time Pro-Bowler Andrew Whitworth, has given Goff much more time this season, which has allowed him to look downfield more often. The offensive system is also a better fit for Goff, who is 2nd to only Tom Brady this season in yards from passes 20+ yards downfield. Goff throws a very accurate deep ball, just as he did in college, and this season he has time to wait for those plays down the field to develop.

I saw some value on the Rams when the line was 7 and higher but that value is now gone. However, this game does apply to a 66-28-4 Over situation and I’ll lean with the Over based on that.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

It seemed like Detroit had beaten Atlanta before the Lions’ last-second touchdown was overturned. However, according to my numbers, the game shouldn’t have been nearly as close, as the Falcons outgained Detroit 6.6 yppl to 4.9 yppl. It was the 3 interceptions thrown by Matt Ryan, one returned for a Lions’ touchdown, that kept Detroit in the game.

The Lions are 7th in scoring this season but their offense ranks 26th in my ratings. Detroit has been lucky to have a return touchdown in all 3 games and the offense has benefited from short fields resulting from their 8 takeaways (2nd in NFL). In fact, the Lions offense only has 4 drives longer than 60 yards this season – only Dallas and Tampa Bay have fewer and the Buccaneers, obviously, have played one less game.

Case Keenum and the Vikings offense deservedly got all the headlines in last week’s victory against Tampa, but the defense might be an issue going forward. Minnesota’s defense has surrendered 5.7 yppl this season (26th in NFL) and have been fortunate to hold opponents to a 27% 3rd down conversion rate – a number that will surely regress towards the mean. The Vikings are particularly poor against the pass and face a Lions team with one of the highest expected pass/run ratios in the league (the Lions only trail New Orleans in pass/run ratio since the start of 2015). I have no opinion on this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets

Both of these teams are coming off impressive wins in which they outgained their opponents by 2 yards per play. The Jets and Jaguars defenses turned in the top two performances of week 3 and that is reflected in the lowest total of week 4 (39.5 points). Furthermore, both of these defenses have been unlucky to give up touchdowns on more than 70% of their opponents’ Redzone opportunities.

Interestingly, the Jaguars defense ranks first against the pass and last against the run this season. The Jets ground game hasn’t been very impressive this so far this season – my numbers have them ranked 20th – but it could be a nice week for Bilal Powell and company if the Jets stay in the game. New York actually applies to a good week 4 situation, as teams that lost their first two games of the season tend to get a morale boost after winning in week 3. In fact, dogs of more than 1 point are 49-17-3 ATS since 1980 in game 4 after getting their first win the previous week. Unfortunately, my model projects the fair line on this game at Jacksonville by 5 points and I have no opinion.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens played poorly on both sides of the ball and will be pleased to get home after a tough trip to London. Last week, I wrote about the Ravens’ potential regression defensively due to their luck in the Redzone and on 3rd downs and the Jaguars put up 44 points on them. The offense didn’t fare any better as Joe Flacco was pulled after only managing 28 yards passing. It won’t get any easier this week against a Steelers pass defense that ranks 2nd according to my metrics.

Pittsburgh lost in overtime as 7-point favorites to Chicago and most are blaming the offense – but the truth is the Steelers were unlucky to lose a fumble in Chicago territory and to have a short field goal blocked at the end of the first half. Pittsburgh’s offense has also been unfortunate to convert only 32% of their 3rd downs this season and I expect their conversion percentage to raise moving forward given that the Steelers converted 43% of 3rd downs in 2016.

The line on this game is fair, as my model also pegs Pittsburgh by 3 points as the fair line. A 94-44 ATS blowout bounce-back situation would apply if the line goes up to 3½ points and I’d lean with Baltimore at +3½ points or more.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers

Lean – Philadelphia (+1.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

After heart-breaking close losses in each of the first two weeks, the Chargers fell to 0-3 with their two touchdown loss to the Chiefs. However, that game was closer than the score suggests, as a -3 turnover margin was what led to the big margin of defeat. Away fans in Los Angeles have nearly matched Chargers fans in the first two home games and it seems they may have a bit less of a home-field advantage than the rest of the league, which is something that we’ll keep an eye on going forward.

The Eagles won last week on a game-winning 61-yard field goal but were outplayed as the Giants out-gained Philly by 1.7 yards per play. Philadelphia has depended on their 6th ranked rushing attack and they have a favorable matchup this week going against the Chargers 26th ranked rush defense. My model favors Philadelphia by 1 point and the line has moved enough to supply some value on the Eagles.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Lean – Over (44.5) – ARIZONA (-6.5) vs San Francisco (lean SF at +7 or more)

San Francisco exploded for 39 points last Thursday night after not reaching double digits in the first two weeks but the Niners’ offense still ranks 29th in my ratings – although I do expect that unit to improve as they get more acclimated to the system. The 49ers have been a better team defensively this season (22nd in NFL) and they’ve actually been unfortunate allowing opponents to convert on more than half of 3rd downs. I expect San Francisco to get more 3rd down stops moving forward, which will help their fortunes.

Injuries have ravaged Arizona’s offense and they’ll have to rely on their defense in this one. It’s a good matchup for the Cardinals because the 49ers need to run the ball to be successful and Arizona ranks 10th in rush defense based on my numbers while not having allowed an opponent to rush for 100 yards this season. The Cardinals defense have been unlucky in having their opponents score touchdowns in 7 of 8 Redzone opportunities this season and I expect their Redzone defense to improve moving forward.

I’ll lean with the Over based on a 66-28-4 Over situation and I’d lean with San Francisco at +7 points or more.

Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks

Jacoby Brissett played well last week against the Browns with one passing and two rushing touchdowns. However, this week’s matchup Sunday night in Seattle provides a much more difficult challenge. The Colts remain one of the worst teams in my rating and might’ve lost to Cleveland if it weren’t for costly Browns turnovers.

The Seahawks fell to 1-2 last week in Tennessee but their offense finally showed signs of life with 20 points in the second half. Seattle’s defense has been solid (10th in my ratings) and that unit is certainly well-equipped to handle the Colts’ offense. However, I don’t see any value here, as my ratings favor Seattle by 13 points and I have situations that favor both teams.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

New York @ Tampa Bay
Pick: New York +3

This is a great spot for the 0-3 Giants. They finally got the offense going last week, scoring 24 points against Philadelphia. The Giants made the playoffs last season, so they are not short on talent, and are 33-16-3 ATS in October games. New York is also 52-33 ATS away off a division game, plus 32-16 ATS away after gaining six or more yards per play in their previous game. Tampa Bay is dealing with a lot of injuries on defense. QB Jameis Winston has as many TDs as picks (three) and the ground game has been terrible at #26 in rushing yards per contest. The defense is hurting up front and is ranked #30 in yards allowed, and #31 in passing while allowing 329.5 yards in the air per game. The Bucs are without linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander, so rookie Kendell Beckwith is stepping in. The Bucs come off a 34-17 loss to the Vikings, playing without three starters -- defensive tackle Chris Baker, Alexander and cornerback Brent Grimes. During the game, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, David, cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and defensive end Noah Spence all left with injuries with Spence separating his right shoulder, so it's uncertain which players may be available against the Giants. Tampa Bay is on a 22-45-1 ATS run at home, including 11-24 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the points and play the NY Giants.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OC Dooley

Dolphins +3

It was exactly a week ago overseas in London when a team "getting" a field goal from the oddsmakers (Jacksonville) winning OUTRIGHT in a 44-7 romp. It was also at this same exact spot in the schedule last year when also in an overseas game in London at three-point underdog pulled off the OUTRIGHT upset, so the mere pricing of this game speaks volumes. Favored New Orleans has INJURY issues where a pair of offensive linemen were limited in practice and may not play. That is big news since the defensive line of Miami features a pair of players (Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake) who have been to the Pro Bowl "five" different times. The defense of the Dolphins also has GOOD news as middle linebacker Lawarence Timmons has served a team imposed one-game suspension (after going AWOL) and is eligible to return. Admittedly Miami just lost 20-6 against the lowly Jets but is should be considered they had to fly cross-country for the contest (also had a home game postponed by a hurricane). In addition Miami is still breaking in quarterback Jay Cutler who turned down a job with today's broadcaster (FOX) in order to resume his career

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Buffalo vs. Atlanta
Play: Buffalo +8.5

Buffalo’s defense is the fuel that sparks the offense. The Bills "D" has been nothing short of dominant in September. While the Marcell Dareus led unit allowed the Broncos 366 total yards a week ago the majority of those game in garbage time. Without a game breaker on the outside the offense depends on the duo of quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running back LeSean McCoy. The Bills running game hasn't overwhelmed the opposition this year with both Taylor and McCoy combining for just 246 yards on the ground. McCoy, however, has been Taylor's second option in the passing game, with 18 catches for 131 yards on the year.

The Buffalo defensive front have 10 sacks in the first three games and the secondary has yet to allow a passing touchdown. have recorded 10 sacks in their first three games and have yet to allow a passing touchdown. The Falcons have won the last four meetings dating to Buffalo’s last victory in the series in 1995.

Atlanta's Super Bowl calling offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan resides on the west coach as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers but the Falcons are still one of the league's top scoring units. The Falcons rank fifth in the NFL at 29 points per game after three games. Quarterback Matt Ryan and their 29 points per game square off against the top scoring defense (12.3 points) in the league. Ryan manages a balanced offense with running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combining to average 146 rushing yards per game. Julio Jones leads the team in receptions with tight end Austin Hooper playing the part of the game breaking receiver averaging over 28 yards per catch.

Defense, like last year, is the clubs Achilles, allowing 22 points per game, and winning two of their first three games by less than a touchdown.

Atlanta's 3-0 mark is somewhat deceiving. The Falcons could easily be 1-2 entering this Week 4 event. Atlanta escaped Soldier Field in Week 1 with a closely contested win over the Bears and last Sunday's four point win over the Lions came with Detroit falling a yard short of the end zone as time expired.

Ryan, Freeman and Jones vs. the Buffalo defense makes for an entertaining affair on Sunday. With all due respect to the Super Bowl runners-up - the Bills are in a position to control the line of scrimmage - especially the reconstructed right side of Falcons' offensive line where Ty Sambrailo replaces starting right tackle Ryan Schraeder and right guard Wes Schweitzer enters Sunday's game with only four NFL starts under his belt.

Atlanta wins on Sunday's by putting points on the scoreboard and evidence of this is the fact that the franchise has gone “OVER” the total in 18 of last 22 games. This weekend they struggle to run the football and keep Ryan clean in the pocket. The result is a two-plus turnover performance by the Bills defense making the value-play in this game Buffalo plus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Butcher

NO vs MIA +3

This game was listed as MIA -3 in the off-season. I know Cutler is in and Tannehill is out since then, but there really isn’t much of a difference between the two. If anything, Cutler has a much stronger arm. In any case, I think there’s a pretty big over-reaction to last week’s results, where the Saints upset CAR on the road while Miami got worked by the Jets. But let’s remember that this is the NFL, and it’s very dangerous to go off previous week’s results. Miami was set as a -3 favorite in this matchup for a reason, and a 6-point adjustment is astronomical this early in the year. This one is ‘trending’ towards 3.5 (with -3 being heavily juiced up) but I don’t think it’ll get there. If anything, this is shaping up to be a vig-free wager on the underdog. Lean: MIA +3

PIT @ BAL +3

While everyone remembers the really ugly result of that London game for the Ravens, let’s not forget how the Steelers go worked by the Bears, a team that was absolutely horrific on Thursday Night at Green Bay. Both teams are 2-0 and both have wins against mediocrity (@ CLE and MIN w/out Bradford for PIT and CIN and @ CLE for BAL). In any case, one thing we should all expect is a close matchup between these two. You have to expect the Ravens to bounce back after that ugly performance, though they’d have to do it without their stud DT Brandon Williams once again. This is a huge boost for Le’Veon Bell and the run-game, and if that gets going, Steelers could potentially control this game offensively. Defensively, Pittsburgh is getting both Tuitt and Watt back for this one. Still the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these clubs, and there’s some value on the home dog here. Lean: BAL +3

CAR @ NE -9

There isn’t a worse defense in the league than the Patriots. Yes, Hightower is back this week, but there’s still some serious issues with this unit that ranks 31st against the pass and 28th against the run. I know Newton has looked awful so far, but you can’t go anywhere but up after his start to the season. Carolina will involve McCaffrey much more going forward and the fact that Kelvin Benjamin is suiting up for this one is a big boost for this offense. The spread was -9 NE in the offseason and it hasn’t changed, even though the public ‘perception’ of this Panthers team has. Of course I’m not so sure the perception of the Pats has changed much, even though they should be 1-2 with 2 losses at home. Bounce back spot for the Panthers here, who have a slightly better D-line (10th in ASR%) than the Texans (12th in ASR%) so far this year. Lean: CAR +9

TEN @ HOU +2.5

Here’s an interesting line. Houston won @ Cincy two weeks ago and then should have won @ NE last week, yet they’re a home-dog in a divisional matchup at home. The Titans are coming off a home win against Seattle, though the Seahawks aren’t as strong as we’ve all thought before the season. Neither are the Pats. Still, this line was -3 HOU in the offseason, and there is pretty significant line value on ‘em at the current number. This one is trending towards 3, though I don’t believe it’ll get there. One key injury is to Jurrell Casey, who was added to the report on Friday. He’s Titan’s best defensive lineman, and with him at less than 100% (or out), Watson should have more time to find his receivers and/or to use his legs to move the chains. Tennessee is 6-11 ATS on the road over the last few years and 7-18 ATS against conference opponents. Home dog should get a closer look in this one. Lean: HOU +2.5

DET @ MIN -2.5

Last week the Vikings were +2.5 at home against a mediocre Tampa team on the news that Keenum would be the starter. He proceeded to shred the Bucs D of course and the Vikings won in a comfortable fashion. This week, Minnesota is a -2.5 home favorite, albeit facing a much better opponent. Keenum is still the starting QB. One key factor to consider is that Bucs rank 29th defensively against the pass….Lions are 5th. In the offseason Minnesota was -3 in this matchup. Last week the adjustment was about 5.5 points when news came out that Bradford would sit. This week’s adjustment is only 0.5 points based on my logic. I think it’s pretty clear where the ‘value’ lies. Lean: DET +2.5

BUF @ ATL -8

So we have a matchup of an elite offensive team (ATL) vs an elite defensive one (BUF). Or do we? Last year the Falcons paced the lead with the efficiency ratings, registering a 25% offensive DVOA for the season. They were a juggernaut. This year so far, they’re ranked 7th with an offensive DVOA or 19%, a 25% decline in efficiency from last season. This team has clearly regressed back to the mean a bit offensively, as was to be expected. On the other side, we have a Buffalo D that ranks 2nd in the league so far. This is a stout unit that hasn’t given up more than 16 points yet this year, though of course their games came against NYJ, CAR, and DEN…teams not really known for their offensive firepower. Still, the Bills D is playing extremely well. On the other side, there’s a matchup that Buffalo could exploit, and that’s Atlanta’s 31st ranked run-D. After being stifled by premier run-defenses of CAR and DEN, I’d expect Shady McCoy to go off in this one. Taylor is one of the most mobile QB’s in the league, and with him being a threat to run at any time, I see Buffalo having a lot of success moving the chains. Atlanta is coming off another really close game, but more importantly, Ryan has thrown 3 INT’s in that one. Ryan is actually a pretty TO-prone QB over the course of his career, and was coming off a year where he had the lowest INT-rate of his career. Regression to the mean is to be expected, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make mistakes in this matchup as well. Dareus is back for the Bills, and if Ryan gets frazzled by the pressure, he’ll make mistakes. Lean: BUF +8

LAR @ DAL -6

The offseason line was -12.5 Cowboys in this matchup. It opened at -7.5 this week and has now dropped to -6. I think it’s pretty clear where the pure line-value lies. Rams have been favorites in all of their 3 games so far and they’re 1-2 ATS to show for it. Now we’ll get to see what this team is truly made out of. Their defense isn’t as good as everyone believes, especially their run-D. Cowboys’ O-line should be able to push this D-line around in the trenches while establishing a running game. If that’s the case, it could be a very long day for LA. One factor to consider is that Cowboys are on a short-week having played on MNF, while the Rams have had 10-days to rest/prepare. Lean: DAL -6

CIN @ CLE +3

The Bengals are 11-5 ATS on the road over the last 16 games while Cleveland is 4-12 ATS at home. Cincy is getting Burfict back for this one, which is pretty big as he’s their best LB. Bengals rank 10th in pass-D, and I believe their secondary will be able to take away the receivers in this one. With Burfict in the middle, I like the Bengals D to play well here. More importantly for them is that their offense started showing their new identity last week @ Green Bay. The offense will revolve around Green and Mixon going forward, Cincy’s top two playmakers. The Browns are without Jamie Collins and Myles Garrett, and Danny Shelton got hurt this week. Their absences are a blow to the interior of this Browns D. This can only help the Bengals, who feature a really bad O-line. Bengals are a better team in this matchup and I’d expect that to show in their sense of urgency this week. Lean: CIN -3

JAX @ NYJ +3

I don’t remember the last time the Jags were a road-favorite. Had to be at least 5+ years ago. In any case, last week I was shocked to see the Browns as road-favorites @ Colts. That one was a mistake. This one is an indication that Jags could actually be a pretty good team this year. And to me they are. Their defense is top-5, featuring the most explosive D-line in the league so far this season (#1 in ASR%) and two shut-down corners on the boundaries. Offensively, they still feature one of the worst QB’s in the league in Bortles, but their offensive philosophy of pounding the ball on the ground is paying dividends. Jets are 25th against the run defensively and they have a below average O-line. Expect Jags’ strategy of running the ball and playing stout defense to have success in this one. Besides, does anyone see NYJ winning 2 in a row this year? Lean: JAX -3

NYG @ TB -3

Tampa will be without Alexander, David, and Ward this week. A number of their other defenders are questionable as they’re dealing with injuries. This defense is decimated with them so far this year. This unit ranks 29th defensively against the pass and 4th against the run. Well, Giants don’t know how to run the ball on offense, and Eli Manning did a great job of getting the ball out quickly last week, as 34 out of his 35 attempts were out in 2 second or less. Expect NY to attack this Tampa D in a similar fashion in this one. One other key factor is that Tampa has the worst D-line in the league, ranking 32nd with an ASR% of only 1.3% (1 sack). Giants’ poor O-line should hold up here. Lean: NYG +3

PHI @ LAC -2.5

Philly is playing their 3rd road-game out of the first 4 games and coming off a wild home game against the Giants last week. Of course what makes this road-game more challenging is that they have to fly from coast-to-coast for this one. To make matters worse, this defense is absolutely decimated with injuries and the offense will be without Sproles for the rest of the year. By comparison, Chargers have no significant injuries besides Verrett and they’ll be playing their 3rd straight at home. Simply a bad spot for the Eagles here. Lean: LAC -2.5

SF @ ARZ -6.5

This spread was -9 ARZ in the offseason so it shows you how significant the loss of David Johnson is. It doesn’t help that the Cardinals’ O-line is dealing with major injuries at ‘guard’ as well. Niners have virtually zero pass-rush though, ranking 31st in that area. Of course San Fran could be without Hyde, which would be a huge blow. In addition they’re missing a number of key defenders: Foster and Reid. Keep in mind that ARZ is on a short week, having played on MNF, while San Fran has had 10-days to prepare. Lean: ARZ -6.5

OAK @ DEN -3

What the heck did we witness last Sunday Night? That was an absolutely ghastly performance by the Raiders. I know I’ve said earlier not to over-react to previous week’s display but boy is that hard to do in this particular scenario. Maybe Oakland was truly ‘looking ahead’ to this week, but still, that game @ Washington was bad. Regardless of that, Denver D has owned Carr so far in his career. Plus they have the most dominant run-D in the league so far, which is an issue for the Raiders. Crabtree is also dealing with an injury and he sat out on Friday, which isn’t a good sign. The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings while the Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 @ Denver. Lean: DEN -3

IND @ SEA -13

I can’t lay double-digits this early in the NFL season, nor can I back the worst team in the league on the road in Seattle. Honestly, I got nothing here. Take Seattle in Survivor pools…that’s about it. PASS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

Tennessee at Houston
Play: Houston +2.5

Watson and his Houston teammates took Tom Brady and the New England Patriots to the wire a week ago eventually falling by a 36-33 margin. Mariota and Tennessee held serve in Nashville with a 33-27 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

Mariota has thrown for 696 yards and three touchdowns and he and his teammates head into this Sunday's road event with 2-1 record on the season. A win as a visitor this weekend would put Tennessee in the early season drivers set in the AFC South division. The balanced attack of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in the backfield, Rishard Matthews on the outside and tight end Delanie Walker leading the team in receptions (15), makes the Titans a tough squad to defend.

The 36 points that the Texans defense allowed last Sunday to the Patriots has to be taken with a grain of salt. Be it the 2015 Denver Broncos, 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2013 Seattle Seahawks or the 1995 Chicago Bears, even the most talented stop-units in the history of the league struggle to contain Brady and company on Gillette Stadium field.

Head coach Bill Belichick and his defensive staff did a stellar job of keeping All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt out of the Patriots' backfield. Watts has failed to record a sack in his first three games. The Texans lone win this season has come against the 0-3 Cincinnati Bengals but Watts and the Houston defense are healthy and in a position to excel this Sunday against Mariota and the Titans offense.

The Texans have been against-the-spread monsters against division opponents the last two seasons. Save their porous performance against a good Jacksonville defense in Week 1, a non-cover and straight up loss, the team is 8-3-1 in their last 12 AFC South Division games.

Houston's offense - under the direction of Watson is a work in progress - but the Texans' defense is head and shoulders better than the Titans and has the front seven to contain the dual-threat that is Mariota.

Watson’s mobility has been the key to mitigating the injuries of the Houston offensive line despite it working out to a mere one victory. Watson gains confidence and experience with each passing week.

This Sunday event is a difficult spot for the visiting Titans. Tennessee comes off a big win against a physical Seattle Seahawks squad and this Sunday's situation trends to a Houston win and cover.

Over the last 19 weeks of National Football League action, teams in a contest that followed a contest against the physical Seahawks defense, have won only 6 of 19 games. In that 19-game span the club that just played Seattle in their previous event is 5-14 ATS the following week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

RAIDERS at 276 BRONCOS
PLAY: BRONCOS -3

Oakland looked like a monster the first two weeks of the NFL campaign. They rolled to a nice win on the road against the Titans, and followed that up by destroying the Jets. But last Sunday was a different story as the Raiders were thumped by the Redskins.

Now Oakland has the difficult task of rebounding on the road against the Broncos. Denver is also off a loss as they let a lead get away and dropped a decision at Buffalo.

I thought both losses were a little fluky. The Raiders have a solid offensive line but that unit happened to have a collectively awful game at Washington. I thought it just turned into one off those nights for Oakland. They made some early mistakes and then everything simply went awry. It happens to almost every team at some point, and should not be overrated.

The Broncos loss was far different. Denver looked to be in control of the game against the Bills. But some solid in game adjustments by the Bills, particularly on defense, turned the tide and Buffalo walked off the field on top.

I think Denver is more likely to rebound on Sunday. The Broncos have had Derek Carr’s number, and consequently, they’ve dominated this rivalry recently. I tend to favor defense more than offense when sizing up the NFL and there’s no question the Broncos have the superior stop unit.

I see the Broncos establishing their run defense in this game and turning Oakland into a one dimensional attack in the process. It’s a tried and true formula for me in college and pro football. Find the team that’s likely to own the better rushing stats and there’s a good chance you’ll be backing a winner. I see Denver winning that portion of this game, and I’m willing to give the FG with the Broncos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lyle

Bengals vs. Browns
Play: Bengals -3

The battle of two 0-3 teams but which one of these 2 is better? Under New Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor in week three Cincy came very close to beating a very good Green Bay team losing in OT. Cincy will also be getting back linebacker Vontaze Burfict from a 3 game suspension that will booster the Bengals Defense. Jaimie Collins in also questionable for Cleveland which will not help him against an offense that is finally getting on track.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chip Chirimbes

Saints vs. Dolphins
Play: Dolphins +3

Here it is Week 4 in the NFL and the Dolphins have yet to play a home game and this is their fifth consecutive road game. After surprising most of the AFC with a win at San Diego Miami was totally shut down in New York against the Jets as Jay Cutler was thing about the broadcast booth. New Orleans put up a win 34-13 win over Carolina but they still are a team in trouble as they don't stop anybody on defense.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Anthony

Detroit vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -2

Minnesota needs to sense the moment and know when it's time to go non-stop and push it into the next gear. Their highly ranked offense is sitting at #2 in yards, for a reason. The WR crew and much improved Oline keep this team plugging along regardless of teams that they have come up on so far. The QBs have played very well for Minnesota - especially last game - but Minnesota absolutely needs to keep more of the same aggressive game plan at the very least here vs Detroit. If their left tackle, Greg Robinson, does not get better stopping bull rushes, they have no chance of making this game close, to quite honest. Detroit has been weak on the defensive side of the ball, far too many times over the last 3 games. Minnesota DE Everson Griffen has 4 sacks so far, for a reason - Robinson will get blown off the field - if Detroit allows Griffen to dominate the edge, they are in serious trouble. Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC Minnesota another one here at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. CHARGERS -2 over Philadelphia

The Chargers reputation for finding ways to lose is reaching new heights. No matter what publication you read or what NFL pregame or post-game shows you watch, all you hear regarding the Chargers is that they have made a habit out of losing close games. Losing is contagious and now with an 0-3 record, L.A.’s stock is very low. That’s our cue to step in.

Philadelphia could take a massive breather here after playing intense games against Washington, Kansas City and the Giants last week. Furthermore, though he has many good traits – arm strength, mental processing, toughness, escape skills – second-year quarterback Carson Wentz is still developing as a passer. Too-hot passes and sailed throws can result from his elbow-centric inverted delivery that’s akin to that of a MLB pitcher. High throws and fumbles have slowed Wentz and could allow L.A.’s defense to collect turnovers after failing to get one in both home games to date. If all things even out over time, the Bolts are in line to win some turnover battles and this looks like the perfect set-up for that.

Once again, we’re not going to get into the X’s and O’s when breaking down a game. It means jack. We are situational or value players or a combination of both and in that regard, it’s time to buy up some Chargers’ stock. This is not an 0-3 team. This is a talented squad that is on a three-year run of poor fortune. There are 29 other GM’s in the NFL that would love to have Philip Rivers on their squad. The Chargers have played Denver, Miami and K.C., with two of those teams being legit contenders and the Chargers did not look out of place in either. L.A.’s stunt game is making strides and fellow ends Joey Bosa and Chris McCain can be very disruptive as well. Had the Chargers defeated K.C. or come in 2-1, we may have laid off em here but this is a very good 0-3 team that catches the Eagles at the right time. The Eagles are coming off three straight nail biters and now have to make a trip to another time zone before hosting the Cardinals next week. The planets align right for a Bolts' victory and we're all over it.

SEATTLE -13 over Indianapolis

Without Andrew Luck, the Colts were supposed to be the laughing stock of the NFL but instead, they nearly beat the Cardinals two weeks ago and indeed beat Cleveland last week while scoring 31 points in the process. The Colts have covered two weeks in a row but more importantly, if you bet against them, you ripped up your tickets in back to back weeks. Furthermore, two big dogs last week (Houston and Cincinnati) covered easily and nearly won outright while the rest of the underdog’s slayed the board. That has the market fearful of spotting big points again, especially with Seattle, a team that barely beat the 49ers while scoring 12 points and scoring just nine points in Week 1 against Green Bay. Now one has to lay 13 points with a team that has scored under that in two of their three games? Get in the mind of the market and you’ll stay ahead of the curve. In this case, on a Sunday night bailout game, the points look appetizing but we couldn’t disagree more. The Colts are a dumpster fire with the worst roster in football. What this market has forgotten is their 46-9 loss on the road against the Rams in Week 1, which also happened to be on the West Coast. They’ll now travel again to play a steamed up Seattle squad.

The conventional wisdom is that the Seattle Seahawks are the prohibitive favorites to win the NFC West but few are looking at them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders that can string together three wins in the postseason, largely due to a dismal offensive line. But, on a day when Russell Wilson threw four touchdowns, its defense got taken downtown in Nashville. In eight drives from the start of the second quarter to the start of the fourth quarter, Tennessee scored seven times – four field goals and three touchdowns. The Seattle Seahawks are now 1-2 this season with its only win being a 12-point victory over the 49ers. The Seahawks don’t have the swagger we’ve been used to seeing in the Great Northwest. If you’ve watched Seattle in any of its three games this year, spotting nearly two converted TD’s with them is unappealing at best. Lost in it all of that is Seattle did enough offensively to win beat Tennessee by scoring 27 points on the road. Lost in all of that is Seattle held Green Bay to 17 points at Lambeau and also held the 49ers to nine points. Additionally, Pete Carroll never shows mercy against anyone and enjoys running up the score more than any coach we’ve ever seen. Up 41-3 late in the fourth quarter, Carroll will kick a FG with 30 seconds remaining.Indianapolis is everything it appeared to be in a disastrous opener. The Colts are the weakest team in the NFL and will never see the postseason under the current staff. It's hard to imagine how an offense this void of talent is going to generate points this week against a Seahawks defensive front that should dominate the line of scrimmage. We'll say Seahawks triggerman Russell Wilson has a big day and the Seattle defense outscores the Indy offense. Colts once again get exposed in a big way so be very confident in spotting the points. We are.

N.Y. JETS +150 over Jacksonville

If you listen to any of our podcasts, we keep preaching and insisting that nobody can predict the outcome of games. Our mantra is to play value and react to what the market is overreacting to. All of that comes into play here, as the Jaguars have two blowout wins with last week’s 44-7 victory over Baltimore resonating the loudest. That 9:30 AM EST start last week assures us that the market was watching. Anyone that bet Baltimore had to feel disgusted 10 minutes in. We warned you about betting games that take place overseas and also pointed out that it was Jacksonville’s fourth year in a row traveling to London while it was Baltimore’s first time ever. We are not putting any weight in Jacksonville catching the Ravens flat or any weight in Jacksonville defeating Tom Savage. When Jacksonville hosted Tennessee in Week 2, the Jags were buried by 21 points and now they’re favored on the road because the market has responded to their two loud victories. Don’t follow suit. The Jags still have an error prone, unreliable QB that never wins a game he’s expected to. Before last week, Bortles had thrown two touchdowns and two interceptions. Seriously, the last time Jacksonville was favored on the road was back in 2011.

Miami was expected to be the next team to cut a notch in their holster as the latest team to slap the Jets around. In their first two games, New York had been outscored 66-32 and had the look of a team capable of going 0-16 until the Dolphins came to MetLife Stadium. Of their 11 drives prior to a garbage-time touchdown that prevented a shutout as time expired, the first seven ended in punts and the last four featured two interceptions and two turnovers on downs. Of their eight drives prior to the fourth quarter, none of them lasted more than six plays and four of them were three-and-outs. In eight drives, Jay Cutler managed three first downs. Miami was flat after a big win against the Bolts the week prior and after being displaced because of Hurricane Irma. Jacksonville could easily suffer a similar fate.

You see, Jacksonville is coming back from a trip overseas so they, too, were somewhat displaced. Last year after returning from a game overseas, the Jags had a bye week. In fact, they have played overseas four years in a row and had a bye week afterwards every time except this year. We tried to find an example of a team or two coming back from England and playing the following week but were unable to. We may have missed it but from our research, we were not able to find one team that did not have a bye the week after playing overseas. This now becomes unchartered territory for an already overvalued Jacksonville squad.

The Jets could also be better than advertised. They are 0-2 on the road with losses to Buffalo and Oakland but they’re 1-0 at home with that aforementioned dominating win over the Fish. By the way, Denver also lost in Buffalo. Perhaps the Jags come in here and win again but the more likely scenario is that they suffer an overseas hangover and are just as flat as Miami was last week. Even if the Jags aren’t flat (very unlikely), they do not warrant being road chalk. If you bet on Jacksonville here, you are playing into all the things we urge you not to play into (overreactions, market perceptions, etc). It’s a bad bet that likely won’t turn out well. Jets outright.

HOUSTON +121 over Tennessee

The Titans come in 2-1 after defeating the Jags in Week 2 and the Seahawks last week. Tennessee’s 37-16 win over Jacksonville suddenly looks a whole lot better after the Jags torched the Ravens overseas. The Titans are now starting to get some press. All of a sudden, the media has started touting the Titans as a legit threat to make a deep playoff run because they have opened some eyes by lighting up the scoreboard with 70 points between wins over the Jaguars and Seahawks. We gave you the Titans two weeks ago over Jacksonville and also gave you them last week as a Survivor pick to beat Seattle. Now that the market is jumping in on the Titans two weeks too late, we’re jumping off.

Let’s not forget that Tennessee lost to Oakland at home in Week 1, 27-17. Lost in Tennessee’s victory over Seattle last week is that the Seahawks, a team that couldn’t move five yards previously, racked up massive yardage. Russell Wilson threw for a career-best 373 yards and four scores against the Titans but all this market sees is a victory over one of the NFL’s best teams over the past decade. Yes indeed, at home, Tennessee’s defense had trouble with a QB (R. Wilson) that can move his feet. They’ll get the same thing here.

Houston lost to New England but they dominated that game in Foxboro. Had it not been for New England once again getting every bounce into its laps, Houston may have won that game by three TD’s. The previous week, Houston played on a Thursday night in Cincinnati and beat the Bengals 13-9. The Texans are now 1-2 and are without anything impressive. They were torched by the Jags in Week 1 (29-7), they beat Cinci and then lost to New England. However, Tom Savage started against Jacksonville and there were other factors that contributing to the Texans being flat in their opener. What we see is a team with new found hope because of Deshaun Watson. Watson led the Texans to victory over Cincinnati. He threw for over 300 yards last week in New England and will now start his third game of the season here and first at home (he played in Houston’s home opener against Jax but he came in late in relief of Savage). Houston’s new stadium will be rocking big time.

Last season, the Titans were favored on the road twice and went 0-2 against the number, losing 38-17 in Jacksonville and barely getting by the Bears in Chicago. As the chalk in their season opener, they failed to cover that one too. While we’re on board with Tennessee, we’re not ready to bite on them just yet as road chalk because they have not proven to be profitable in that role. We’re still in the buy-low/sell-high business and Tennessee putting up 70 points the last two weeks combined means if you get behind them this week, you would be buying high. The timing to get behind Tennessee here is way off. Its ship sailed two weeks ago while Houston’s stock is still low and in this business, timing is everything. Houston outright is the call.

Week 4 Preview:

In this weekly space, we'll cover every NFL game that we're not wagering on. Remember, these are not official plays and if we do decide to make any of these official plays, we'll move them into that category. Please note that the BEST LINES available are also listed,

The Rest of the Games

MIAMI +127 over New Orleans SportsInteraction

The NFL returns to London for the second week in a row. At 1-2 the Saints appear to be back on track after a 34-14 win on the road in Carolina. Heading into Week 4, we've heard all about how difficult the Saints early season schedule has been with three of their first four games on the road including this trip to jolly old England. Losses to both Minnesota and New England might be excusable to the talking heads but we are not nearly as bullish on Drew Brees and company after just one good game. The Saints defense is still giving up 437.7 yards per game, second worst only behind the Patriots and even though they picked off Cam Newton three times on Sunday, turnovers are a luck based statistic that cannot be counted on from game to game.

After losing 20-6 to the Jets on Sunday, we don't blame the Dolphins for being eager to skip the continent. The case for Miami through two games is a difficult one to make but we are in the business of buying low. Many consider the Jets to be the worst team in the NFL and the Dolphins were embarrassed by a team that is supposedly tanking it. Backing a team coming off a brutal loss is a situational play we often look out for, as those teams are usually being offered at a discount their next time out. It's really hard to back the Fish this week after losing to the Jets, especially if you picked Miami in your survivor pool or anywhere else for that matter. Even head coach Adam Gase was disgusted in his team's offensive effort saying “I’m tired of watching for two years this garbage...We’ll make the proper adjustments, probably make some changes.” Defensively the Dolphins have been great against the run by holding opponents to just 3.1 yards per carry and 73.5 rush yards per game but they've struggled against the pass by giving up a league-worst 8.6 yards per pass, which makes this short line against the high-flying Saints offense so curious. The Dolphins have been to England three times with their most recent visit in 2015 while the Saints were last overseas in 2008. If familiarity counts for anything, advantage Dolphins.

As we discussed last week, the London games are difficult to handicap. Last week's game between the Jaguars and Ravens was over before most viewers finished their first cup of coffee, which also isn’t unusual, as there have been blowouts galore overseas through the years. We refuse to wager on these games because of the uncertainties and because it’s a different animal to handicap. Just remember that Miami has an excuse for last week. They were displaced because of Hurricane Irma. They opened with an emotional win in L.A. against the Chargers and thus, they were flat against the Jets. New Orleans is a bad football team they may have caught a worse one last week. Dolphins outright. Play: Miami +140 (No bets).

NEW ENGLAND -9 over Carolina Bet365

If the Texans were getting 14 in New England last week, then the Panthers should be getting 24. Alright, maybe that’s an exaggeration of sorts but if strength of schedule counts for anything, the Panthers could be in big trouble again this week. Carolina has played San Fran, Buffalo and New Orleans and its offense didn’t look pretty in any of them, which includes a game at home against the defenseless Saints. Think about that for a second. New Orleans is the NFL’s version of the Nuggets and Kings in the NBA and Carolina couldn’t move five yards against them. Even against the 49ers in their season opener, the Panthers had weak yardage, as Cam Newton passed for just 171 yards on 14 lousy completions on 25 attempts. In Week 2 at home to Buffalo, the Panthers scored nine points. Losing by 21 to the Saints isn’t the end of the world but scoring a worthless 13 points on that team in your own building is about as bad as it gets.

What’s Newton’s excuse this week? Since the start of last season there are only two QB’s in the NFL with a lower passer rating than Cam Newton –- Brock Osweiler and Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Panthers went out and got Newton a RB this year in Christian McCaffrey but that’s not helping either. Cam Newton is an unrefined pocket passer whose demise is going to come rapidly over the next few weeks but the Panthers are 2-1 so not many have taken notice yet. Sell Cam Newton now and don’t stop until the market catches up.

We all saw what Tom Brady did to the same New Orleans’ team (in New Orleans no less) that Cam Newton couldn’t move the chains on. We also saw that the Patriots get whacked in Week 1 and get whacked statistically in Week 3. Houston had more yards, more first downs, they held a significant edge in time of possession and had it not been for at least three fumbles that landed in the Patriots lap, that score would’ve been as bad as K.C.’s lopsided win in New England. In Week 1 at home, New England was an 8½-point fav against K.C. They didn’t come close to covering. In Week 3 at home against the Texans, New England once again didn’t come close to covering and needed a remarkable drive at the end and a lot of good fortune to win it. The Pats have been favored by more than a TD twice and didn’t come close to covering twice. Now they’re spotting more than a TD again and the market isn’t likely biting again. We will because New England usually responds after a bad game and our target here is to fade Cam Newton and the vile offense he’s trying to orchestrate. Play: New England -9 (No bets).

CLEVELAND +3 over Cincinnati

Cleveland lost to Indianapolis while the Bengals went into Green Bay as a 7½-point dog before they almost pulled off the upset of the day by losing in OT, 24-21. Prior to last week, Cincinnati’s stock had hit rock bottom while Cleveland’s stock was up slightly. Prior to last week, Cincinnati had not scored a TD in losing 20-0 to Baltimore in Week 1 and 13-9 to Houston in Week 2. Cincinnati will now get too much market credit for going into Green Bay, building a 21-7 lead and just missing. So, while most of this market jumps back in on Cinci, we’re jumping off because last Sunday, for that one specific day, the Pack was one of the most beatable teams in the NFL. So many things went wrong for the Pack. Aaron Rodgers threw a pick-6, they had no running game, they were sacked six times, they trailed 21-7 at halftime, they had no left tackle, no right tackle and their best defensive tackle was out too. They had a rookie covering A.J. Green yet Cincinnati could not score a single point in the second half and now we’re being asked to spot road points with them? No thank you.

We were just as disappointed by the Browns loss to Indy as everyone else that backed them. The difference is that we’re not abandoning them but we can understand why most will. Cleveland was down 28-7 to the Colts at which point everyone that backed them switched to another game. Team’s like New England and Green Bay come back from 21 down while the Brownies do not. The final score read 31-28 but a very late TD by the Brownies made the score more respectable but at the end of the day, the Browns did not cover again and lost another game. Hue Jackson got to field questions about what went wrong this time after yet another loss. He’s had to do it now 18 times out of the 19 games he’s coached since taking over as head coach of the Cleveland Browns. However, after three weeks, the 0-3 Browns are on the verge of winning. Rookie QB DeShone Kizer looks better each week. Last Sunday, Kenny Britt, Rashard Higgins and Ricardo Louis combined to catch just 6 of the 22 footballs that were thrown their way and most of those were right between the numbers. They’ll be better this week. Cleveland came within three points of beating the Steelers in Week 1 and they were the better team. In Week 2 in Baltimore, Cleveland turned it over four times in a 24-10 loss otherwise they matched the Ravens. Last week, Cleveland had more yards but Kizer threw three picks for the second game in a row and the Brownies fell behind by a big margin.

It's hard to be thrilled with this price when the Bengals have won five straight against the Browns and have outscored them by a combined score of 91-30 in the last three meetings. To that we say big BFD! The Browns were in the extremely unfamiliar role of being favored on the road last week but this week they go back to being in the familiar role of being an underdog at home. That’s a role they can embrace and play well in while the Cincinnati Bengals couldn’t beat a makeshift lineup last week and looked absolutely horrible in Week’s 1 and 2. Cleveland gets its first win of the season but we’ll play it safe (after all they are Cleveland) and take the points. Play: Cleveland +3 +105 (No bets).

Pittsburgh -3 over BALTIMORE

This one is tough. For one, the Steelers have done nothing to prove that they are worthy of being road chalk. Here’s a team that lost in Chicago as a 7-point choice and that barely got by Cleveland in the season opener for both teams. Under normal circumstances, we would be all over Baltimore but these aren’t normal circumstances. You see, the Ravens played overseas last week and we refuse to invest in games that involve teams’ going overseas the week of or the week after. There are too many unknown intangibles. Furthermore, both squads will come into this one with their stock low so there is no undervaluing here. We trust the odds makers have compensated Baltimore somewhat for traveling but it still does not give us a clear picture to choose one over the other.

The Ravens proved they could beat teams from Ohio in their first two games and most believed we would see their true mettle in Weeks 4-5 vs. Pittsburgh and at Oakland. Instead, it appears as though the Ravens players didn’t make it through customs and we were seeing the reincarnation of the 1987 scab teams. It wasn’t like they were running up against New England. This was Jacksonville. The Jags outgained the Ravens 410-186 and scored on eight of their first 10 full possessions – four touchdowns and four field goals. The Jacksonville defense is no joke, but, in some scoring formats, Joe Flacco had minus fantasy points after completing eight of 18 passes for 28 yards, two sacks, two interceptions and a passer rating of 12.0. With the twice-annual Pittsburgh bloodbath coming this week and a bar fight with the Raiders after that, they both got a lot of film to watch as to just how bad the Ravens can be when they’re off their game. Baltimore figures to be much better this week but the Steelers may be too. Hold a gun to our head and we’ll swallow the points. Play: Pittsburgh -3 (No bets).

TAMPA BAY -3 over N.Y. Giants

Odell Beckham Jr.'s urinary approach to touchdown celebrations has garnered most of the headlines for the Giants this week but don't let one player's penchant for peeing distract you from the major problems that are plaguing the G-Men. Big Blue was expected to contend for a division title but after a 0-3 start to the season, the chances of that are slim at best. New York was awful after being shutout for three-quarters against the Eagles last Sunday but they were able to put up 24 points in the final frame after scoring just 13 in their previous 11 quarters. The Giants were down 14-0 before mounting their comeback and while a three-point loss to the Eagles as a six-point pooch might look like a step in the right direction, we're not convinced. On top of sporting one of the weaker offenses in the league, the Giants cannot stop the run (they are last in the NFL at 153.3 yards allowed per game) or get out of their own way. Beckham and company were penalized 10 times for 137 yards on Sunday. Through three games, the G-Men are the fifth most undisciplined team in the league racking up 80.7 penalty yards per game.

The Buccaneers have only played two games after their season opener in Miami was rescheduled because of Hurricane Irma. In Week 2 at home in Tampa, the Bucs took advantage of four Bears turnovers in a 29-7 victory. The Buccos were a sexy preseason sleeper and after a big Week 2 win, they looked primed to beat a Vikings team minus their starting quarterback. We warned you last week that Tampa was not great against the Bears despite the score and that there was an overreaction to both that win and Sam Bradford's injury. The Bucs got whacked in Minny 34-17 but if the Dolphins get a pass after dealing with the after-effects of Irma, Tampa deserves the same benefit. The Vikings are also worlds ahead of the Jets on both sides of the ball making the Bucs defeat even more excusable.

The Giants covered last week and the Buccaneers didn't so it's not a surprise that Tampa is being sold short here in Week 4. We've read that New York’s offense “hit its groove” last week and that one, “had to like” what one saw against the tough Philly D but the G-Men are getting way too much credit for one good quarter. Don't forget they were down double-digits before all hell broke loose in a bizarre quarter of football. Where this line sits now isn't nearly as interesting as where it opened. We are always mindful of what Pinnacle is doing as they are the sharpest book in town and while most outfits posted Tampa as -3½ point favs, Pinny opened at -4½. That’s one of the prompts that will lead us to paydirt. What's less widely understood is that Philadelphia is a typical rivalry-game in which the underdog is primed to throw everything it has into a big match. The reality in New York is that last week's demoralizing loss to Philly was the game the Giants hung their hats on to get this season turned around. This Giants’ team isn't braced for a big statement game; instead, it just lost one and now the Giants are in line to easily get beat again. Play Tampa Bay -3 -103 (No bets).

Oakland +3 over DENVER

Both of these teams are coming off of tough losses in Week 3, but the Raiders loss struck a much deeper chord than Denver’s loss because Oakland’s occurred on Sunday Night Football. After convincing wins on the road at Tennessee and an unholy beat-down of the Jets, the Raiders had a dancing swagger they brought to Sunday Night Football with a road matchup against the Redskins. It’s one thing to lose. It’s another completely to be dominated. With five minutes to play in the game, Oakland had run just 36 offensive plays and gained 71 total yards. David Carr threw two picks and 247 fewer passing yards than Kirk Cousins, Marshawn Lynch rushed for 18 yards – more than half the team total – and Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree combined for just two catches for 13 yards. The Raiders knew they were going to have a fight on their hands going cross country to play a hungry Redskins team in prime time but the beating they took was jarring and eye-opening in this market. Great teams typically don’t get done in so completely and decisively. The Raiders got exposed for all their flaws and weaknesses by a team most don’t view as a playoff team. That Oakland loss last week makes this one look easy, as Denver rarely loses at home.

The market was torched by small road favorites last Sunday and Oakland was no exception. The Sunday night game is called the “bailout” game for a reason and the Raiders were a popular choice with the market, driving the books off the key number of three and closing at -3½. Oakland never had a lead and after just a few minutes it was clear they had no chance to cover that small number. That performance is hard to erase from one’s mind but the odds makers didn’t hesitate in putting up a small number here.

Denver is now 2-1 with wins over the Chargers and a dominating 42-7 win over the Cowboys that is still carrying a lot of weight in the market, especially after Dallas rebounded with a big win Monday night. Much has been made about Denver at Mile High where they've posted the NFL’s best home record over the past four decades. Despite all that, we have to question why this number is so low. Denver doesn’t lose at home and they whacked Dallas two weeks ago while Oakland looked brutally awful last week. This one has that “trap” ring to it and it’s for that reason, we have to side with the house. Play: Oakland +3 (No bets).

Survivor Picks - Week 4

Our Survivor picks this year will be twofold. We’ll usually recommend two choices every week, a safe one and a not so safe one. The problem with playing the popular pick or the biggest point-spread favorite is that when that team loses, you go down with a high percentage of the pool and if they keep on winning all year, the pool will be split several ways. A mix of both and avoiding potential upsets is not a bad strategy either. One of our cardinal rules is to never play road teams because big road favs get beat too often and when one inevitably goes down, it will knock out a good percentage of participants and you don’t want to be one of them.

Week 1 safe pick – Buffalo √ ---- Week 1 not so safe pick – Minnesota √

Week 2 safe pick - Oakland √ ---- Week 1 not so safe pick – Oakland √

Week 3 safe pick - Green Bay √ ---- Week 3 not so safe pick - Tennessee √

Week 4 safe pick – Seattle over Indianapolis

One strategy we employ is not to pick the biggest point spread favorite on the board and hope that favorite goes down and takes a high percentage of the pool with them. That strategy almost worked last week when we smelled a potential upset with Houston over New England. This week with Seattle being the biggest favorite on the board, we don’t smell a potential upset and so there is no reason to pussyfoot around. Expect poolies to be on New England, Seattle, Green Bay (Thurs), Atlanta and perhaps a few Arizona’s thrown in as well. It is of our always humble opinion that the Seahwks are the least likely to get upset this week so we will therefore push all in on them.