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Sunday of NFL Week 4 seeing plenty of sharp action and line movement
Patrick Everson
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -3
These AFC West rivals got out to strong starts the first two weeks of the season, then had lackluster road performances in Week 3 losses. Oakland (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Washington and lost 27-10 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Sunday night game, and is now on the road for the third time in four weeks.
Denver (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Buffalo and looked nothing like the team that disassembled Dallas in Week 2. The Broncos scored only three second-half points – on a field goal midway through the third quarter – in a 26-16 loss as a 3.5-point chalk.
“It looks like all Denver money across the board,” Bernanke said of the line jumping from -1 to -3 before stabilizing the last couple of days. “Even the moneyline moved, -125 to -150 on Denver. I think this is due to the fact that Oakland’s disaster on Sunday night was in full view of everybody, an isolated game. Denver’s loss was hidden on Sunday amongst all the games. People notice something on national TV a heck of a lot more than they noticed something mixed in the Sunday slate.”
Bernanke said both sharps and the public were initially on Denver as both groups drove the line up for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. And the moneyline on Denver inched up to -160 by Saturday night at CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip.
“This could be one of our biggest decisions of the weekend,” he said.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -6
Dallas enters this 1 p.m. ET contest off a short week after playing the Monday nighter on the road. The Cowboys (2-1 SU and ATS) bounced back from that aforementioned loss at Denver to beat Arizona 28-17 laying 3 points in Week 3.
Los Angeles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) held on in a shootout at San Francisco in the Week 3 Thursday night game. The Rams got outscored 19-7 in the fourth quarter, blowing almost all of a 14-point lead but holding on for a 41-39 victory giving 3 points.
“We opened this game Dallas -7.5 on Tuesday, and later Tuesday evening, we got a sharp bet on the Rams +7.5, so we moved Dallas to -7,” Jerome said. Market moves then led TopBet to go to 6.5, then 6. “It’s a very surprising decision to us, as 63 percent of the cash and 60 percent of bets are taking the Rams.”
CG opened the Cowboys -8 and saw that number bet down to 6.5.
“Sharp and public money both on the Rams (early),” Bernanke said. “I think this is people playing an angle. The Rams had nine days to prepare, Dallas had the short week (playing) Monday night. That’s an angle people play all the time, so it’s reflected in the betting.”
That said, don’t be surprised to see the public push Dallas back up this morning.
“The buyback on America’s team, it’s almost inevitable,” Bernanke said.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3
New York is now officially desperate for a victory, with the calendar turning to October and Ben McAdoo’s squad still seeking its first W. The Giants (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) at least got close last week, losing 27-24 as a 5-point underdog at Philadelphia, which got a 61-yard Jake Elliott field goal as time expired.
Tampa Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) lost at Minnesota 34-17 in a pick ‘em game in Week 3. Bettors eyeing this 4:05 p.m. ET matchup seemed to find the Bucs’ loss more problematic than New York’s setback.
“Less than 2 hours after we opened the game on Sunday night, we got a sharp bet on the Giants +4.5 and moved Tampa Bay to -3.5 (-105),” Jerome said, noting TopBet went to 3 by Monday afternoon. “Since then, we have made small adjustments on the juice. Seventy-three percent of cash and 77 percent of bets are taking the Giants.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5; Move: -3
In a Week 3 full of underdogs covering and several winning outright, Pittsburgh was arguably the biggest upset victim. The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Chicago as 7-point favorites and left with a 23-17 overtime loss.
Baltimore was sent across the pond to London last week, though it looked like the team didn’t actually make its flight. The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) got boatraced by Jacksonville 44-7 as a 3-point fave.
“I think it’s gonna be a great game,” Bernanke said, noting meetings in this rivalry are often decided by one score. “This has been all public and sharp money (early) on the Steelers, the reason being Baltimore I think got a little bit of a hosejob, playing last week in London and not getting a bye. Bettors are noticing that, and this could be a flat spot for Baltimore.”
This contest kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2
Los Angeles is still looking for its first win of the season, hoping perhaps a third straight game in its new digs will prove helpful. The Chargers (0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) did not score in the second half last week, tumbling to Kansas City 24-10 as a 3-point home ‘dog.
Philadelphia easily got the most miraculous win of Week 3. Jake Elliott hit a 61-yard field goal as time expired, lifting the Eagles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) to a 27-24 home victory over the New York Giants as a 5-point chalk.
“We’re seeing a lot of money on this game. All sharp money on the Chargers, and over the counter, public money is kind of even,” Bernanke said. “The Chargers, this is their third straight home game, so bettors are buying into the fact they can’t lose three straight home games. And the Eagles are off a very emotional win against the Giants, division rivals, so a letdown spot possible.”
TopBet.eu opened the Chargers a 1-point home ‘dog and saw that line quickly jump the fence for this 4:05 p.m. ET start.
“On Sunday night, we got a wiseguy bet on Chargers +1, so we moved them to -1,” Jerome said, adding that when running back Melvin Gordon (knee) was upgraded to probable Thursday, the line jumped to Chargers -2, then went to 2.5 on Friday.
Patrick Everson
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -3
These AFC West rivals got out to strong starts the first two weeks of the season, then had lackluster road performances in Week 3 losses. Oakland (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Washington and lost 27-10 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Sunday night game, and is now on the road for the third time in four weeks.
Denver (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Buffalo and looked nothing like the team that disassembled Dallas in Week 2. The Broncos scored only three second-half points – on a field goal midway through the third quarter – in a 26-16 loss as a 3.5-point chalk.
“It looks like all Denver money across the board,” Bernanke said of the line jumping from -1 to -3 before stabilizing the last couple of days. “Even the moneyline moved, -125 to -150 on Denver. I think this is due to the fact that Oakland’s disaster on Sunday night was in full view of everybody, an isolated game. Denver’s loss was hidden on Sunday amongst all the games. People notice something on national TV a heck of a lot more than they noticed something mixed in the Sunday slate.”
Bernanke said both sharps and the public were initially on Denver as both groups drove the line up for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. And the moneyline on Denver inched up to -160 by Saturday night at CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip.
“This could be one of our biggest decisions of the weekend,” he said.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -6
Dallas enters this 1 p.m. ET contest off a short week after playing the Monday nighter on the road. The Cowboys (2-1 SU and ATS) bounced back from that aforementioned loss at Denver to beat Arizona 28-17 laying 3 points in Week 3.
Los Angeles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) held on in a shootout at San Francisco in the Week 3 Thursday night game. The Rams got outscored 19-7 in the fourth quarter, blowing almost all of a 14-point lead but holding on for a 41-39 victory giving 3 points.
“We opened this game Dallas -7.5 on Tuesday, and later Tuesday evening, we got a sharp bet on the Rams +7.5, so we moved Dallas to -7,” Jerome said. Market moves then led TopBet to go to 6.5, then 6. “It’s a very surprising decision to us, as 63 percent of the cash and 60 percent of bets are taking the Rams.”
CG opened the Cowboys -8 and saw that number bet down to 6.5.
“Sharp and public money both on the Rams (early),” Bernanke said. “I think this is people playing an angle. The Rams had nine days to prepare, Dallas had the short week (playing) Monday night. That’s an angle people play all the time, so it’s reflected in the betting.”
That said, don’t be surprised to see the public push Dallas back up this morning.
“The buyback on America’s team, it’s almost inevitable,” Bernanke said.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3
New York is now officially desperate for a victory, with the calendar turning to October and Ben McAdoo’s squad still seeking its first W. The Giants (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) at least got close last week, losing 27-24 as a 5-point underdog at Philadelphia, which got a 61-yard Jake Elliott field goal as time expired.
Tampa Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) lost at Minnesota 34-17 in a pick ‘em game in Week 3. Bettors eyeing this 4:05 p.m. ET matchup seemed to find the Bucs’ loss more problematic than New York’s setback.
“Less than 2 hours after we opened the game on Sunday night, we got a sharp bet on the Giants +4.5 and moved Tampa Bay to -3.5 (-105),” Jerome said, noting TopBet went to 3 by Monday afternoon. “Since then, we have made small adjustments on the juice. Seventy-three percent of cash and 77 percent of bets are taking the Giants.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5; Move: -3
In a Week 3 full of underdogs covering and several winning outright, Pittsburgh was arguably the biggest upset victim. The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Chicago as 7-point favorites and left with a 23-17 overtime loss.
Baltimore was sent across the pond to London last week, though it looked like the team didn’t actually make its flight. The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) got boatraced by Jacksonville 44-7 as a 3-point fave.
“I think it’s gonna be a great game,” Bernanke said, noting meetings in this rivalry are often decided by one score. “This has been all public and sharp money (early) on the Steelers, the reason being Baltimore I think got a little bit of a hosejob, playing last week in London and not getting a bye. Bettors are noticing that, and this could be a flat spot for Baltimore.”
This contest kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2
Los Angeles is still looking for its first win of the season, hoping perhaps a third straight game in its new digs will prove helpful. The Chargers (0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) did not score in the second half last week, tumbling to Kansas City 24-10 as a 3-point home ‘dog.
Philadelphia easily got the most miraculous win of Week 3. Jake Elliott hit a 61-yard field goal as time expired, lifting the Eagles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) to a 27-24 home victory over the New York Giants as a 5-point chalk.
“We’re seeing a lot of money on this game. All sharp money on the Chargers, and over the counter, public money is kind of even,” Bernanke said. “The Chargers, this is their third straight home game, so bettors are buying into the fact they can’t lose three straight home games. And the Eagles are off a very emotional win against the Giants, division rivals, so a letdown spot possible.”
TopBet.eu opened the Chargers a 1-point home ‘dog and saw that line quickly jump the fence for this 4:05 p.m. ET start.
“On Sunday night, we got a wiseguy bet on Chargers +1, so we moved them to -1,” Jerome said, adding that when running back Melvin Gordon (knee) was upgraded to probable Thursday, the line jumped to Chargers -2, then went to 2.5 on Friday.
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